In the first part of our draft series this season I take a look at who I think are currently the top 30 prospects for this year’s draft. Everyone has likely heard of Bryce Harper who is supposed to be the next phenom, but there are also several other very intriguing names in this year’s class. Some are calling it a weak draft due to the lack of impact collegiate position players, but there are some good college pitchers and it is a very strong year for high school arms. There are also some intriguing high school position players who seem to have a few great tools, but question marks surrounding the rest of their games. Look inside for the rankings, a brief scouting report on each player, and some links to videos.
1. Bryce Harper, C, CC of Southern Nevada
He has been called the natural by some and is most likely the #1 prospect in this class when all is said and done. It has been well chronicled how he left high school early to become a member of this class, but I don’t know if he is as big of a slam dunk as Stephen Strasburg or even Justin Upton for that matter. His power is undeniable as he has routinely launched 500 foot homers in batting practice (see YouTube), but there are some questions about how high of an average he will hit for. He is off to a blistering start to his collegiate career and doing it with a wood bat. Some question his size at the catcher position, but that has not slowed down Matt Wieters. He has the tools to stick at catcher with good technique and a strong arm. Overall the package is special when you consider his potential as a run producer and the fact that he plays arguably the most premium position.
2. Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS, TX
In my opinion the main competition for the #1 spot on this list. Taillon is the complete package. He has size (6’7″ 230 pounds), the stuff (fastball up t0 99 mph and potentially 2 plus breaking balls), and great makeup. They don’t make high school pitchers much better than this.
3. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, LSU
Ranaudo has a huge frame and looks the part of a dominating power pitcher, but he doesn’t really have the stuff to back it up. He has a decent arsenal with a fastball in the 88-92 range and a very good breaker, but he does not project as the top of the rotation starter that you would like at the top of a draft. He has missed some time with a stress reaction in his elbow and needs to come back strong and show he is healthy or his biggest strengths (his track record and the fact that he is considered a fairly safe pick) will go out the window.
4. Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Mississippi
Pomeranz is clearly the best lefty in the draft with a fastball that can reach the mid-90′s on occasion but is usually more around 89-92 mph. He complements it with a very good curveball and a picture perfect 6’5″ 220 pound frame. The questions about work ethic that surrounded his older brother while in the Cardinals system give me some pause as does his delivery, but I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he is a different man.
5. Karsten Whitson, RHP, Chipley HS, FL
Whitson has a smooth delivery, a projectable frame, and present stuff. He can touch the mid-90′s with his heater and also possesses one of the top breakers in the high school class. Add in a change and good command, and Whitson is a very intriguing choice.
6. AJ Cole, RHP, Oviedo HS, FL
Another projectable high school righty, Cole is very similar to Whitson. He can also crank it up to 95 mph with the heater, has a good breaker in his curveball, and has a surprisingly good change. He may have even more projection that Whitson when he fills out his rail thin frame. I give Whitson the slight edge because I like his delivery better.
7. Manny Machado, SS, Brito HS, FL
Machado is a smooth operator in the field with a strong arm and a solid bat. He projects to hit for pretty good power for a middle infielder, and he is the top high school position player in the draft.
8. Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech
McGuire has been a stud since the day he stepped foot on campus. He definitely fits the bill from a statistical standpoint, but he does not possess the power arsenal that you would expect from his hulking 6’6″ frame. What he does have is solid command of a great mix of pitches. He may not have the ceiling of some of the high school arms, but he is a pretty sure bet to be a #3 starter some day.
9. Chris Sale, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast
Another top collegiate lefty in this class, Sale is a big workhorse lefty with a fastball in the low to mid 90′s and a devastating change up. There are questions about the level of competition he faces, but he was the #1 prospect on the Cape last summer.
10. Dylan Covey, RHP, Maranatha HS, CA
Covey is a strong high school righty with big velocity up to 96 mph and a power curve. He reminds some of Chad Billingsley for his big stuff and his polish as a high school pitcher.
11. Zack Cox, 3b, Arkansas
There are some questions about how much power he will hit for with wood, but he is off to a great start this season and can flat out hit. I have seen him hit some bombs in college and think the power will be there. He still has some work to do at third, but he has a plus arm and has done some pitching for the Razorbacks.
12. Josh Sale, OF, Bishop Blanchet HS, WA
He is limited athletically and is probably going to be stuck in left field, but this kid can hit both for power and average. Sale is the top high school bat in the draft and also draws rave reviews for his makeup.
13. Brandon Workman, RHP, Texas
Workman turned down a 3rd round bonus out of high school and after his first 2 seasons in college some may have said that was a mistake as he had so-so success as a swing man for the Longhorns. That has all changed this year as he is finally putting it together as a starter. Workman has the stereotypical 6’5″ 220 pound frame as well as a fastball that can touch the mid-90′s and a hammer 12-6 curve that could push him toward the top of a big league rotation.
14. Jesse Hahn, RHP, Virginia Tech
Hahn has gone from an unsung high school teammate of Matt Harvey to likely passing him on draft boards. He has one of the best fastballs in the draft touching 99 mph on the Cape last summer and sitting easily at 92-96 this spring with a ton of movement. He hadn’t had much success in the past, but he is throwing strikes and getting results this year. His secondary pitches need some work, but he has the type of fastball that can get outs by itself.
15. Christian Colon, SS, Cal St Fullerton
Colon got off to a slow start this spring, but he has heated up recently. He has been a star the last two summers playing with Team USA and has produced in college. He may not have the best tools, but he is smooth in the field, knows how to hit, and is a gamer.
16. Yordy Cabrera, SS, Lakeland HS, FL
The son of the Tigers’ minor league hitting coordinator has been around pro baseball his whole life. He has impressive tools including power and a plus arm. There have been some questions about him translating impressive batting practice displays over to games and his age as he is already 20 years old after moving over from the Dominican to attend high school in the US. Some also believe he will outgrow short, but he definitely looks the part of a middle of the order bat.
17. Austin Wilson, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS, CA
Speaking of looking the part, Wilson is everything you look for in a stud big league right fielder. He has a ripped 6’4″ frame, huge power, and a cannon for an arm. He also has unbelievable makeup as he is committed to Stanford and his parents attended MIT and Harvard. He has also proven that he is not just all tools and hit an impressive homer off Karsten Whitson in the Under Armour All-America game last summer.
18. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Grandview HS, CO
The projectable Gausman has a sinker that he can run up to 96 mph as well as a good curve and change up. He also has a nice delivery and throws strikes.
19. Nick Castellanos, 3b, Archbishop McCarthy HS, FL
Castellanos put on a show at the Under Armour game last summer winning the home run derby and going 4-4 with 4 doubles during the game. He looks the part at third with good hands, a strong arm, and plenty of power.
20. Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio St
Wimmers doesn’t have the stuff of some of the high school hurlers that will be available, but he knows how to pitch and is having a great spring. He generally works from 90-92 mph with a curve and a change that have both been rated highly, but what sets him apart is his command and his composure on the mound.
21. Matt Harvey, RHP, North Carolina
Harvey has been all over the place as a draft prospect. From once being considered 1a to Rick Porcello in high school to pricing himself out of pro ball to an up down college career. He is on the way back up currently topping out at 97 mph along with a nasty, hard slider and dominating on Friday nights for North Carolina.
22. Bryce Brentz, OF, Middle Tennessee St
Brentz put himself on the map by putting up video game numbers last year slugging .930. He has an aggressive approach, but he gets results. He is also a decent athlete having pitched in the past, and he has moved over from right to center this season. In a draft short on college position players, someone will likely jump on Brentz early looking for a bat.
23. Stetson Allie, RHP/3b, St. Edward HS, OH
Allie is as physically gifted as any player in this class. He has touched 99 mph on the mound and would also be one of the top power bats in the draft if he chooses to go that direction. As is typical with dual sport or two way players, he is raw, but the upside is as good as any player in the draft.
24. Sammy Solis, LHP, San Diego
Solis missed last season with a herniated disc, but he has come back very strong this year. He has very good command of a fastball that sits 89-92 and can reach 94 and his change may be his best pitch. He comes at hitters with a different delivery dropping down from 3/4 to sidearm, but he knows how to pitch.
25. Jedd Gyorko, 2b/SS, West Virginia
Gyorko does not have the tools that you would look for in a first round pick, but what he does is hit. He has drawn some comparisons as a mini version of Kevin Youkilis. He has a strong arm, but he doesn’t have much speed. Gyorko plays short in college, but most see a move over to 2nd or even 3rd in pro ball.
26. Chevez Clarke, OF, Marietta HS, GA
A draft wouldn’t be complete without a 5-tool high school outfielder in the first round, and Clarke may be that guy this year. He has plus speed and is a plus defender in center. He doesn’t have a whole lot of power, but he takes advantage of his speed as a switch hitter, and he is having a great spring.
27. Stefan Sabol, C, Aliso Niquel HS, CA
Teams love athletic catchers that have a chance to hit, and Sabol is exactly that. The cousin of Troy Polamula, Sabol runs a 6.7 second 60 yard dash and also has a plus arm. He needs some work behind the plate, and some see an eventual move to the outfield. However, a catcher with his kind of skills is hard to find, and someone will give him a chance to stick.
28. Cam Bedrosian, RHP, East Coweta HS, GA
Small righties have a stigma about them, but teams need to get over that with Bedrosian. He has a power arm and holds his stuff deep into games. The son of Cy Young winner Steve, the younger Bedrosian has a 96 mph fastball, a plus slider, and knows how to pitch.
29. Kris Bryant, 3b, Bonanza HS, NV
Bryant is about the only bat in the draft that can match up to Bryce Harper from a raw power standpoint as he has put on some unbelievable batting practice displays. There are some questions about him translating that over to games, but others have given him Troy Glaus comparisons.
30. Micah Gibbs, C, LSU
Catchers usually get overvalued, and that could happen with Gibbs this year. He is a switch hitter from a top college program that receives all kinds of praise for his leadership abilities drawing some Jason Varitek comparisons. He is solid behind the plate and although he may not hit for a lot of power, he should hit for a decent average.
Honorable mention in no particular order: Michael Choice, Gary Brown, Todd Cunningham, Yasmani Grandal, Kyle Parker, Brett Eibner, Kyle Blair, Chad Bettis, Kaleb Cowart, Drew Cisco, DeAndre Smelter, Robbie Aviles, James Paxton, Leon Landry
I can’t figure out how to directly link to the individual pages on the new set-up for the mlb.com draft profiles, so here is a link to the page and you can select the players to read the scouting reports and watch the videos.
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So what kind of player might the Cards be on the lookout for? For position players, they value catchers, short-stops, and CFs. In a postion player in the first round, they may want a high probability of success guy. Or a lower probability of reaching the majors, justified with exceptional tools.
The bet on Ottavino in 2006 seems to be turning out. If there were good velocity college pitcher like a new Ottavino available at 25, it might be hard to say no.
Last year, the Cards finally went over slot to land Miller. If another high potential kid fell to 25 because of price tag, they could do it again. Since the Cards are more flexible than they used to be, their choices are less predictable.
the best available talent at 25 is likely to be a high school pitcher in my best guess. there would seem to be more of the college statistical type picks they like available with their 2 sandwich picks.
if you’re looking for a guy that is similar to ottavino in terms of a lot of pure stuff, but maybe a little more raw for a college pitcher look at guys like jesse hahn, brandon workman, and matt harvey. i think i have all 3 ranked higher than most places, so it is possible one or more of them could be there when we pick and it wouldn’t surprise me to see us grab one. chad bettis the righty from texas tech also fits the bill in terms of what they look for in pure stuff from a college pitcher, but he could possibly be had in the sandwich round.
when they go position player in the first round it seems to be guys that play premium positions like cf rasmus, ss greene, and ss kozma. of course there was the one exception with wallace, but he was an obvious choice. guys that play premium positions that should be there around 25 are clarke, gibbs, sabol, rice ss rick hague but he seems to be slipping, and miami catcher yasmani grandal.
I remember last June, nearly no one was thinking Miller would still be on the board. When he slipped past other teams, the Cards were able to do something surprising.
To win at the draft game, in this day and age, teams need to selectively make bigger $ bets. Its not just scouting or draft pick, but how much money you spend and where it is best invested.
Guys can get hurt in late May or spring bonus demands. The rank order among top players can get rearranged the last couple of weeks leading into the draft.
RS, you won’t get any argument from me. i rank them based on talent with little to no regard to bonus demands. the cardinals had their chance a few years ago with porcello and passed and missed out on one of the best young pitchers in the game. they had a chance again last year with miller and jumped on it. the draft is not so much about where you pick, but what you are willing to spend and that is not just in the first round. if you have a big budget you can get top talent down in the later rounds if you are willing to pony up and meet their demands to keep them from going to college.
Porcello got a monster deal, made Miller look cheap. I don’t regret passing on Porcello. Boras scared off richer teams.
I’d like to see the Cards spread the money around, sign 5+ guys for over slot bonsues.
And stop picking low upside collegiates until lower rounds.
fewgoodcards,
How far off of this top 30 would you put Drew Vettleson and Justin O’Connor? I was hoping they’d be ideal candidates for late 1st or supplemental picks, but I’m not sure how strong their college commitments are.
I’m also intrigued by Bedrosian. Do you think the organization would avoid him because of his size?
Thanks for the write-up!
the cardinals have shown they aren’t afraid of smallish righties taking jess todd and scott gorgen fairly early in recent years. of course these were college guys with a great track record of success. who knows how being a high school pitcher would change that.
as for o’connor and vettleson i think they are sandwich round or 2nd round picks. both have a lot of talent and could move up from that especially o’connor if he shows teams he can make the move to catcher.
I’ve seen Cox play quite a bit because I go to Arkansas, and while he is a great talent I don’t think he is a Top 15-type talent. That’s not to say you’re wrong on your evaluation, because almost everybody has him rated as highly as you do. He was just as highly thought of out of high school and he played well in the Cape league, which I think attributes to his high rankings. IMO, and this probably isn’t worth much, but he will be nothing but average at 3B defensively and even though he has a solid bat I don’t think he projects to be above average anywhere. That’s not to say he won’t be a very good player, because I think he will be solid but I don’t see him overwhelming anybody with his abilities.
A guy I think could sneak into the first round from Arkansas is OF/RHP Brett Eibner. He can touch low to mid 90′s on the gun and has a few good breaking balls to mix in, but I think his future is at CF/OF. He is very fast with a great glove and can really cover ground. To this point, he has been underwhelming at the plate but he has plus power potential and could hit for a high averge as well. He’s had some amazing BP sessions the past few years, but he tends to get tentative at the plate which has caused his numbers to drop. He’s looked great so far this year and I expect him to start living up to the hype and jump up near the 1st round come draft time.
jws, i am also a fan of eibner, but i like him much better on the mound. he is a great athlete and has some power, but i just don’t see him ever hitting for much average. on the mound he has that good fastball and breaker as well as the 6’4″ frame and his athleticism allows him to repeat his delivery very well. i think he is going to take off when he focuses solely on pitching. he is one of my favorites for the cardinals’ sandwich picks, but unfortunately i think they might have to take him at 25 if they want him and he may be a little too raw for me to take there.
Nice write-up. I’m already looking forward to the draft. Do you have any thoughts on where Canadian catcher Kellin Deglan and where he might go?
I have a feeling there may be a run on high school position players early on in the first round, which would probably mean that my favorite player from this years draft, Austin Wilson, won’t make it to pick 25.
If I had a guess, I would say that the Cardinals go College, and they go righthanded starter with that pick. I guess since they took Miller last season, and since High School starters are strength this year, they may go that route, but I don’t know if that was a start of a trend, or a chance to appease fans and certain sectors of the media that complained about the Cardinals being one of the more risk averse drafting organizations in MLB.
Wilson if he happens to make it to them, but much more likely to be a Matt Harvey type. Though there is always a chance neither of those two would be there, since Harvey could really crank up his draft stock if he continues to pitch well, plus he is a Boras client, which always complicates matters, and guarantees he won’t come cheap. No matter how inconsistent his college career has been. Sort of like the Andrew Miller, I guess.
i’m a big deglan fan. from the short video i have seen on him i think he can be a stud. i haven’t heard a lot of hype on him yet, but i would say he is a 2nd rounder right now although i haven’t seen anyone rank him that highly. i think he would be a steal in rounds 3-5.
wilson is also my favorite for the 25th pick, but like you think he will go much earlier.
right now i am hoping for something like this
25. Austin Wilson
46. Cam Bedrosian
50. Gary Brown
75. Rob Rasmussen
106. Kellin Deglen
Every year it seems like there are at least one or two local products that have first round potential (Odorizzi, Melville, Turner, and Sherzer come to mind). Anyone from the Greater St. Louis area who strikes you as coming off the draft board early?
I want austin wilson…that is all
Volsn
I like Austion Wilson, but I think if Kevin Gausman on the board you have to take a long hard look at him. You know that high school pitching is deep when a kid that can touch 97; with good comand; and a nice delivery is considered a “later half of the first round” type.
high school pitching is definitely the strength of this draft. gausman is a stud, and like you said there is still quite a few on the list ahead of him at this point.
There is an outfielder by the name of Gauntlett Eldemire that BA’s Jim Callis projects to the sandwich or 2nd round. I am hoping and praying that the Cards pick this guy just for the fun we could have on name alone. Profile in next installment please?