Right Field: The farm system’s next calling
Posted by azruavatar in Allen Craig, Joe Mather, Jon Jay, Tyler HenleyEstablishing a starting pitcher appears to be well under way with Jaime Garcia. The minors has produced a handful of players the Cardinals have considered for the hot corner in David Freese, Joe Mather and Allen Craig with the former apparently winning the position. So what’s the next need that will arise? It’s almost certainly right field.
Ryan Ludwick was signed to a 1-year contract in January and will be in his last season of club control in 2011. At 5.45M in 2010, he’s likely to be worth his salary. Assuming $4M/WAR, Ludwick would need to produce around 2.2 WAR on the season.* CHONE projected him for a 2.0 WAR season in 2010. He’s now a year removed from the monstrous 5 WAR season he had in 2008.
So what would a 2 WAR season look like for Ludwick? Well, a lot like 2009. He hit for a .336 wOBA (.269/.329/.467) against a league average of .329. Ludwick has continued to be an average fielder in RF and projected that way again in 2010 by CHONE. So Ludwick amassing a .340 wOBA over about 600PAs would get him into the 2 WAR level. That’s not a tall order for him and he certainly has the capacity to produce well beyond that.
But 2011 is a trickier topic. He’ll make more money, likely approaching 9M**, meaning he’ll need to be producing at a higher rate something closer to 3 WAR. If he plays well in 2010 that arbitration salary could be eve higher. Regardless of the specifics of his 2011 contract, the Cardinals are going to be hard pressed to keep Ludwick around because of the financial constraints imposed by 3 big pitching contracts and a pair of mega position player contracts.
So, who in the system has a chance of being that replacement in 2011? Well, the first and possibly best bet are a pair of recent grads residing on the major league roster already. Joe Mather is currently relegated to a backup CF role and it might be to the detriment of the team overall as he represents a nice combination of defense and potential offense. With the need to hold him in reserve for emergency CF duties, the likelihood is that he won’t see consistent or even significant playing time. Mather’s window for creating a Jayson Werth (or even a Ryan Ludwick!) type career for himself has been hampered by recent wrist injuries and, like everyone not named Benjamin Button, he isn’t getting any younger.
Allen Craig, having already seen time in RF in 2010, is the second candidate to consider. I’ve written about him extensively and, perceived organizational indifference towards his defense aside, I like his bat to be the most prolific of the right field candidates for the future.
On the minor’s side, the Cardinals will look for a pair of players to put together strong seasons at Memphis and create viable alternatives to Mather/Craig. Jon Jay, repeating his time in Memphis is the most serious contender. 2008 represented an offensive zenith for Jay as he posted very good numbers in Springfield (.306/.379/.407) over 400+ PAs. Jay’s 2009 tour at Memphis was underwhelming with a .338 OBP but his major calling card would be the completeness of his game in RF. A plus defender in the outfield, his minor league numbers have been nothing short of fantastic. He looks to be worth upwards of a full win in the field so the offensive threshold for being a productive player is much lower for Jay. Simply being league average offensively makes him a better than average player.
More of a long shot but one of my favorite players in the system right now is Tyler Henley. More along the lines of Jay than Craig, Henley is an above average fielder (only slightly by the metrics but I like him as +5 in a corner) and an good hitter who has yet to misstep in the minors. Henley’s options and limited time in the minors make his ascension somewhat less likely as he’s not even on the 40-man roster yet. It’s hard to completely discount Henley but he faces the largest obstacles on the list.
There’s a handful of players that aren’t real options in Memphis. Amaury Cazana Marti (age), Shane Robinson (lack of offense) and Mark Shorey (defense) are not real options in RF. In Springfield, Adron Chambers and Daryl Jones are too far removed from the majors to be considered real candidates. It’s not impossible that the Cardinals will retain Ryan Ludwick in 2011. The possibility of saving $8M while only taking a minor downgrade on paper is hard to ignore though. With the amount of committed dollars the Cardinals have in the next few years and the impending re-signing of one Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick represents the easiest expensive player for the team to replace.
*This includes the typical 60% discount that player contracts in Arb year 2 represent. Thus, Ludwick needs to produce at a level consumate with a $9M free agent.
** Arb year 3 represents a 80% discount from free agent prices.
Entries (RSS)
Of the names on this list, I like Jay as the guy who fills the most needs w. the fewest drawbacks. He’s an upgrade over Ludwick in terms of range (but not arm), and offers more speed.
His performance last season at Memphis gives me pause, but he’s said he was rebuilding his swing in the first half of the season. If that’s true, and his early season breakout (11 hits in 5 games, including 6 XBH) isn’t a complete fluke, he might turn out to be the guy we want in front of Pujols in 2011 and beyond.
I like Jay, but what was the deal with his defense in spring training this year? For a guy who never makes errors in the minors, he looked worse than Duncan.
First the economics.
IF a WAR is worth $4M why does Lud have to be worth 2 WAR to be worth what we are paying him (2 WAR would be $8M 1.5 WAR = $6M)? That question caries over to why does he need to be worth 3 WAR in 2011 to support a $9M contract?
Why wont we have the money for Ludwick?
raises in 2011
Carpenter .5M
Lohse $3M
Wainwright $2M
Franklin .5M
Yadi $1M
Shu $.7M
Ryan $1.5 M (arb)
McClellen $1M (arb)
Thats less than the $10M we drop off the books for Penny and $2M for Lopez (I assume both get most of their bonus). Assuming you re-sign Reyes for $2M to hold payroll even you would basically have $7M to spend in right field. Even if you dont re-sign Luddy you can get a 2WAR FA for that price most likely. No real need for the farm to produce a RF in 2011. Now 2012……that’s another story.
I assume you mean arb year 3 represents 80% of the FA price not an 80% discount?
As for the possible replacements
I wouldn’t totally exclude Stavi. He seems to be improving every year. I think Mather or Craig could produce a 2WAR year.
I dont follow your logic on Henley. He will certainly be on the 40 man roster next year and I doubt his 40 man roster status would keep him off the club this year if he continues to put up a 1.000+ OPS in Springfield. If you told me TLR was unlikely to go with an unproven rookie then I’d be with you.
I think Jay is a major leaguer I’m just not sure he has enough power to be a full time starter.
I dont think the Cards would back away from Shorey if was the best hitter of the group but he probably isn’t and his lack of defensive prowess (if true – have heard conflicting reports) makes it less likely he’ll see time this year even as a Sept call up putting him at a strong disadvantage for next year.
I also wouldn’t rule out Descalso or Greene at 2nd and moving Shu into right (though I hope this doesn’t happen). Heck, TLr might leave put Shu at 2nd and put oe of those guys in RF!
seems like a platoon of mather/craig on one side of the plate, and henley/jay on the other could be a very effective use of club resources in RF. all those guys – with craig being the weakest defensive option, but probably the best PH – are legit bench options when not in the field.
my guess is 2010 goes a long way to answering this question. the names are in the mix and we’ll see how the righties produce in the majors and how the lefties produce in AAA.
I just hope that we are able to resign Ludwick.
Future down in the organization I am eying two guys as future Right Fielders:
Matt Adams
Kyle Conley
@cariocacardinal: As explained in the notes, you should be able to get more out of your arb players per dollar than FA players.
Yes, it should be 80% of free agent prices.
If only MLB allowed for the trading of draft picks, Austin Wilson could be ours.
I expet them to sign Ludwick. It seems to me that he’ll be one of those guys who’ll not be a bargain but will earn his keep at the salary he’s likely to get. Should Mather or Craig really come on this year it might be a different story. Mather looks great but hasn’t put up numbers. Craig doesn’t look so great but his minors numbers are good and he looked okay to me in right against the Twins in the last pre season game.
I like both Jay and Henley as part timers but, barring a surge in their obp’s, I don’t see them fitting into the starting lineup.
Still think it’ll be Luddy out there next year.
c
A lot of this may depend on Rasmus’ development this year. If he develops into a consistent run producer, then the team might be more willing to go with a relative question mark like a Mather/Craig competition.
Henley looks to me to be the best prospect of the bunch. He has a decent arm, is a solid outfielder, and has considerable pop. If he keeps popping, he will probably pass Jay as a prospect.
I have to agree about Henley. I held hope for Mather but his stroke is just way too long – apparently it can’t be fixed, so I don’t hold much hope for him. Craig and Jay are legit major leaguers, their roles have yet to be determined. If Henley can continue to improve, he looks like a guy who definitely should be considered. That said, I think Cards fans undervalue Ludwick and I hope he’s back next season
minor quibble – i think aaron luna is somewhere in the not-ready mix with DJ tools and adron chambers.
@fpslackers:
Agreed – If Rasmus is the stud we all want him to be and Ludwick OPS’s 850 or so this year. My guess is we trade him and go with one of the options the robot mentions above. I’d actually love to see an OF of DJ Toolz in LF, Colby in CF and Holiday in RF next year?!
@Kazakhstanny Danny:
The policy of not allowing trades of draft picks is just dumb. It would make the draft so much more interesting.
Az, while you should be able to get more out of your arb players than their salary you can’t say they need to give you more to “be worth their salary”. Their salary is what it is and as long as their WAR exceeds that it is fair to say they are worth their salary. The 60%, 80% rule applies to how much they should expect to earn. by that measure, Lud’s FA value is about $9 million (60% of $9M is his current salary) so next year at 80% you wuld expect $7.2M (less than 2WAR). (I personally think with a decent season he’ll get more than that — I’m just applying the formula consistently).
I highly doubt we move Holiday to rightfield for Jones let alone for anyone.
Az, your math seems strange to me – perhaps you did this in the middle of the night – :)? If Ludwick’s current salary is $5.45 m. and that is 60% of his free agent price, then his free agent price equals $9.08 m. In year 3, 80% of that would be $7.3 m., assuming the free agent price doesn’t increase. In fact, I saw something like the $7.3 m. price for Luddy next year given somewhere. Obviously, keeping him would be easier at $7.3 m. than $9 m. And, as cardio says above, if Penny goes, then there will be room in the Cards’ budget for Luddy in 2010. Now, 2011 – no.
@CRay: You’re working from the opposite end of the equation. If you start with a WAR valuation for Ludwick, you can get his $ valuation. I’m guessing at what $$$ he might in arbitration and then determining his WAR value.
You could make the argument that I should be doing it the other way, since arb figures tend to follow that pattern. I wouldn’t argue with that overly much except to point out that he didn’t go to arbitration this past year so $5.45 isn’t necessarily what he would receive based on the discount % scale. That scale should let us approximate what kind of production the Cardinals should expect though.
Either way you approach it, Ludwick is a prime candidate to be cut or traded. The Cardinals have several players waiting in the wings that can play RF, they’ll likely have a significant edge on paper against other NL central teams and they’re facing a payroll crunch in the coming seasons. This all adds up to them being able to accept a downtick in production in order to save $7 or $9 million dollars by replacing Ludwick.
I’m fine with offering arb and letting Luddy go for picks (though he might accept, which is actually less desirable but not a killer), while installing an A. Craig/Henly platoon in RF. Mather and Jay form a nice 4th/5th outfielder combo with PH’ing from both sides, speed for PR’ing (Jay), good defense for late-inning replacements (Jay especially, but also Mather), Mather and Craig can fill in at the corner infiled spots, and all are cheap.
Given what I see as the potential marginal upgrades at the different positions, I’d certainly rather see the Cards spend their money on pitching than re-signing Ludwick.
bc, you only get picks for Ludwick when he is a FA hich wont be until after 2011 (going into 2012).
The possibility that could change this scenario tremendously is if Ludwick has trade value. A big year this year might result in that. If we can get a better back end starter, strong set up man, future RF, or even a 3B (if we determine Freese isn’t the answer) who is just breaking in or still in his arb years the idea of unloading Ludwick makes much more sense.
The other thing that comes into play is ones confidence in re-signing Albert. If you are not able to, you may want to keep Luddy around unless his potential replacement for Ludwick shows real power potential. Would you want to risk unloading Ludwick in 2011 and then possibly need his power in 2012 if somehow Pujols isn’t re-signed?
@azruavatar:
thanks az for pointing out how our analyses differ (been gone all day so haven’t had a chance to look until now) – I certainly agree with your main point that Luddy is almost certainly gone, either next year or the year after, and that the Cards can probably come up with low-cost replacements – the die was cast on Luddy’s long-term future with the Cards when Holliday signed (assuming, as cardio says, the Cards re-sign AP)