Just going to drop some quick numbers from the first round (non supplemental) of the 2005 draft. Out of 30 players selected:
12 were pitchers. 7 made it to the majors. They’ve accumulated 19.2 WAR to date* or 1.6 WAR return per draftee. The most productive pitcher selected in the first round thus far was Matt Garza with 9.1 WAR nearly half of the entire class’s value.
18 were hitters. 16 made it to the majors. They’ve accumulated 75.5 WAR to date or 4.2 WAR return per draftee. The most productive hitter selected was Ryan Zimmerman at over 19 WAR. Honorable mentions to Ryan Braun – 13 and Troy Tulowitzki – 11.
10 were high schoolers. 6 made it to the majors. 18.1 WAR total; 1.8 WAR return per draftee. Justin Upton gets the props from this group with 5 WAR. Has anyone done a study on average age to reach the majors for players drafted out of HS? I would think these numbers are depressed by longer stints in the minors and being in the majors prior to their physical peak.
20 were college draftees. 17 made it to the majors. 76.6 WAR total; 3.8 WAR return per draftee. Zimmerman with the win again.
Tyler Greene doesn’t look so great relative to average but I’d expect Colby Rasmus to pull close to the average line by the end of the season.
Data table after jump –
| OvPck | Tm | WAR | pitcher | HS | |
| 1 | Diamondbacks | Justin Upton | 5 | N | Y |
| 2 | Royals | Alex Gordon | 4.9 | N | N |
| 3 | Mariners | Jeff Clement | -0.2 | N | N |
| 4 | Nationals | Ryan Zimmerman | 19.7 | N | N |
| 5 | Brewers | Ryan Braun | 13.3 | N | N |
| 6 | Blue Jays | Ricky Romero | 3.5 | Y | N |
| 7 | Rockies | Troy Tulowitzki | 11.2 | N | N |
| 8 | Devil Rays | Wade Townsend (minors) | - | Y | N |
| 9 | Mets | Mike Pelfrey | 5.9 | Y | N |
| 10 | Tigers | Cameron Maybin | 1.6 | N | Y |
| 11 | Pirates | Andrew McCutchen | 4 | N | Y |
| 12 | Reds | Jay Bruce | 2.5 | N | Y |
| 13 | Orioles | Brandon Snyder (minors) | - | N | Y |
| 14 | Indians | Trevor Crowe | 0.1 | N | N |
| 15 | White Sox | Lance Broadway | 0.6 | Y | N |
| 16 | Marlins | Chris Volstad | 1.9 | N | Y |
| 17 | Yankees via Phillies | *Carl Henry (minors) | - | N | Y |
| 18 | Padres | Cesar Carrillo | -0.7 | Y | N |
| 19 | Rangers | John Mayberry | -0.3 | N | N |
| 20 | Cubs | Mark Pawelek (minors) | - | Y | Y |
| 21 | Athletics | Cliff Pennington | 0.7 | N | N |
| 22 | Marlins via Giants | *Aaron Thompson (minors) | - | Y | Y |
| 23 | Red Sox via Angels | *Jacoby Ellsbury | 8.2 | N | N |
| 24 | Astros | Brian Bogusevic (minors) | - | Y | N |
| 25 | Twins | Matt Garza | 9.1 | Y | N |
| 26 | Red Sox via Dodgers | *Craig Hansen | -0.4 | Y | N |
| 27 | Braves | Joey Devine | 1.2 | Y | N |
| 28 | Cardinals via RedSox | *Colby Rasmus | 3.1 | N | Y |
| 29 | Marlins via Yankees | *Jacob Marceaux (minors) | - | Y | N |
| 30 | Cardinals | Tyler Greene | -0.2 | N | N |
*data as of 4/21/10 from fangraphs
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Interesting stuff, az. It emphasizes to me what a crapshoot the draft is. By my count, exactly half of the 30 picks are still in the minors or have so far accumulated less than 1 WAR in the majors. BTW, what a good pick that Rasmus fella was in the 28th spot.
It’s also interesting how different the success rate is for a top-10 choice than for even those at or below the midpoint of the first round. There simply aren’t that many sure-fire, can’t-miss guys entering the draft in any given year. Since St. Louis hasn’t had a top-10 draft slot in a long time (and long may that continue…), it’s understandable that there have been some misfires.