Comments on: Alternatives to Kyle Lohse

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Fri, 14 May 2010 19:41:10 +0000

From THT glossary of definitions.

FIP ” … FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched…” note the past tense. There is nothing in the definition about predicting the future.

xFIP “….Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher’s future ERA.” there is a reason for the “x” – it is used for “expected” a term implying events not yet happened.

By: Forsch31

Forsch31 — Fri, 14 May 2010 16:45:53 +0000

FIP also is an estimation of future ERA. Both stats are used to measure current and expected performance–that’s the whole point. xFIP is essentially FIP with the home run totals adjusted; it’s an attempt to make FIP more accurate.

Here’s the Hardball Times explaunation: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/im-batty-for-baseball-stats/

Quote:
“We track something called FIP at the Hardball Times, because we believe it is better than ERA at discerning how well a pitcher is pitching, and will pitch in the future. Well, now we can improve FIP by “normalizing” the Home Run portion of the equation.”

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Fri, 14 May 2010 15:52:03 +0000

xFIP is an estimation of future ERA — it may or may not prove to be accurate. Lohse’s FIP is an indication of how he is pitching currently. Sure Lohse’s HR totals this year are low but if we want to simply look at a player’s career norms why only look at HR’s? Just use his career averages across the board. People love to talk about FIP until it doesn’t serve their argument. Then they find another stat (xFIP in this case) that fits their argument.

By: HL

HL — Fri, 14 May 2010 14:04:09 +0000

@cariocacardinal: His FIP overvalues HRs. Look at his xFIP. He's only better than a LOOGY and 2 position players who pitched.

By: FreeRedbird

FreeRedbird — Fri, 14 May 2010 10:12:09 +0000

Kelvin Jimenez, playing as a starter in Korea, pitched 6 scoreless innings with 8 strikeouts in his last start. Currently his ERA is 4.53; his FIP is 3.92. It is said that the overall level of Korean baseball league is somewhat similar to AAA. Bring him back and give him a shot to replace Lohse!

Just kidding, of course. However, Jimenez did look impressive in his recent start and Lohse is painful to watch now.

By: FreeRedbird

FreeRedbird — Fri, 14 May 2010 09:46:13 +0000

@cariocacardinal: Lohse's HR/FB is 3.8%, which is too low and unsustainable. His career HR/FB is 10%, right around the ML average. His xFIP is 5.04, according to Fangraphs, 5th worst among qualified NL starters. That's bad enough.

By: sportsman

sportsman — Fri, 14 May 2010 03:29:17 +0000

lohse for klohser?
probably not, but my guess is that unless he goes to the dl, he would swap places with kmac for a while
i don’t see a call-up, unless klohse is hurt
if so, i’d bet on walters coming up, but to the pen
again, with kmac to the rotation

By: Steve Sommer

Steve Sommer — Fri, 14 May 2010 02:19:03 +0000

@cariocacardinal: His high BABIP is somewhat offset by his low HR/FB. That being said he's only the number 5 and I'd be inclined to let him pitch his way out of whatever funk he may be in, within reason of course

By: GDM

GDM — Thu, 13 May 2010 22:22:18 +0000

right now i’d leave him alone for two more starts, then if he still can’t get anyone out DL him & call up PJ, Lynn or Ottavino. i’m more concerned with the O right now than i am the pitching. the hitters look horrible right now & aren’t scoring any runs, minus the 11 on sunday. they just got swept by the lowly stros & that’s totally unacceptable to be shut down by their suckass pitchers.

By: easy

easy — Thu, 13 May 2010 21:03:25 +0000

Lohse is and always has been a mediocre pitcher. Unfortunately he is now pitching like a less than mediocre pitcher. I still think that he has a much better chance at becoming a decent fifth starter than any of the other candidates do at least for this year. He’s also getting paid better than a lot of #2 starters so I think he’d have to bad mouth one of Duncan’s kids or something to actually get taken out of the rotation. If we absolutely had to bring one up I’d agree on Ottavino. At least he’s got “stuff” and might be physically able to meet the challenge. Lynn’s not ready and the others are fodder.