Normally by this time of year, I’m knee-deep in draft hype. I regret to say I am woefully behind this year, and I really have no excuse with all the great draft coverage out there. To help me catch up, I thought I could look at a couple of recent mock drafts and see what the prognosticators are prognosticating.
Jim Callis gave us his first mock draft. Here’s what he has to say about the Cardinals:
25. CARDINALS: Matt Harvey has turned himself around following a rough sophomore season that dented his draft stock, after he was considered one of the top high school pitchers in the country in 2007, and he could jump on the fast track to St. Louis. He could either bolster the end of the rotation or develop into the closer of the future that the Cardinals currently lack.
Perusing the interwebs, what I’ve learned of Harvey is that he’s battled with mechanical issues but seems to have that ironed out now. I’ve read mixed reviews on his secondary offerings. Some say his 2nd best pitch is his slider, others his change-up. He threw a curve in high school but has since pretty much abandoned it. Almost everyone is in chorus about his command issues. And everyone agrees he can bring the heat, reaching up to 97 with the fastball at times.
Keith Law saw him in person earlier this year and concluded with...:
Ultimately, his best role may be in the pen, where he won’t have to deal with losing velocity (and could easily sit 95-97), he can work with just two pitches, and the lack of command could be mitigated by the quality of his stuff. If he’s drafted as a starter, some player development staff will have a fair amount of work to do to get him to reach his potential in that role.
I’m skeptical the Cardinals are the organization that can help him realize that potential. Here’s a scouting video of Harvey, and I don’t think it’s particularly wise to draft someone who is seen as a future closer. Future closers are usually future middle relievers.
Andy Seiler’s latest mock has the Cardinals going with Gary Brown, a center fielder out of Cal State Fullerton. Jon Klima has a scouting report on Brown, getting straight to the good ol’ OFP.
GRADES (Present/Future):
Hit 30/50
Power 20/40
Run 60/60
Arm 40/40
Field 50/70
Overall Future Potential: 52
Eh…I have a soft-spot in my heart for players who make up for a lack of offense with Gold Glove defense, but I don’t know. When you’re picking 25th overall, you’re going to get someone with wrinkles. Get a load of the wheels.
Brown definitely has the results the Cardinals like. His schedule/park adjusted wOBA is .521. His slash line is .454/.500/.724! He also has 29 steals in 34 attempts. I do have a gripe about his walk rate; he’s drawn just 8 walks in 213 plate appearances.
S what player do you think can realistically fall to the Cardinals? Who do you want? I think I heart Kyle Parker, but I know that means $$$.
Entries (RSS)
Today I’m thinking Michael Choice. But tomorrow it will probably be different.
This is from the latest Mock Draft by David Rawnsley over at Perfect Game USA:
25. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Jesse Hahn, rhp, Virginia Tech
The improvement Hahn showed in the Cape Cod League last summer has carried over to the spring, especially now that the Connecticut native (and ex-high school teammate of Matt Harvey, No. 16) is starting instead of relieving. He has been able to make only nine starts (5-2, 2.81, 57 IP/14 BB/64 SO), however, and has missed some outings lately with kidney stones of all things, in addition to some reported elbow soreness. That limited window and the lingering injury might affect his draft-day status.
Brown would be a huge mistake at 25 I think. I think we sign the best possible player at 25. I’d be very happy with Justin O’Conner or Harvey. Even more happy if Austin Wilson falls that far.
Justin O’Conner would be solid selection if he makes it #25. I’ve seen mocks that have him, and many others, all over the place. I have a hard time getting a read on who might be available when the Cards pick. The Cards really need to hit with their extra picks this year.
I am one of those that think Harvey is a perfect pick. I expect most of the very high upside bats to be gone by our pick and this years draft has many more upper talent as pitchers than hitters. I think Harvey will continue to develop as he gets used to his new motion and mechanics. Top of the rotation guy to me. Would be a solid 1-2 punch in a 3 years with Miller. Obviously guys can fall so who knows. I love Castellanos, A. Wilson, Brentz and Gausmann as well. Don’t forget we have two 1S picks too…so we should be able to get 3 very solid players.
Either Harvey or Brown would be pretty mediocre draft picks to me. The Cardinals have a serious dearth of great athletes who project as above average major leaguers, below the age of 21 in their system. At both the lower and upper levels of the minor leagues.
This organization needs guys like Austin Wilson or Kaleb Cowart, badly.
Let them waste a bunch of picks on low ceiling college mediocrity after the first round(which is what they do already, and will do in 2010 anyway). Take a guy with at least a modicum of star potential with the first.
With these ridiculous free agent contracts the Cardinals have been throwing around lately, they really can’t afford to go back to a pre-2009 first round mentality. And if they do, I’m afraid we might see quite a lot of 75-85 win teams at the major league level, in the 2010′s.
Kaz Danny—You must have slept through last year’s draft…
@PJ:
After Shelby Miller, how exactly did the Cardinals waver from usual draft philosophy for the remaining 50 rounds? And how exactly is the strategy they used after Shelby Miller, different from any other Jeff Luhnow draft, san 2005? Which for all intents and purposes, looks like a pretty significant outlier in terms of the willingness to take a certain number of high school players within the first six to eight rounds in the Luhnow era.
They basically forced themselves into a corner, by giving themselves the ultimatum of “if Shelby Miller doesn’t become a major league starting pitcher, than this draft is a failure”. And no I don’t really think that Robert Stock makes up for that. No matter how much of a teenage prodigy Robert Stock happened to be, I just don’t trust guys who don’t hit at major college programs. That’s usually not by accident. He is a pitcher to me, and he always will be. Its just a matter of time until they stop wasting their and his time letting him hit.
The fact that they did go college heavy after Shelby may have had something to do with the fact that they had just given 3 million dollars to a 16 year old from the Dominican Republic. But I would like to actually see a full draft with that extra three million being invested in draft eligible amateurs, before I can really believe it. Because it still held up to historical trends from the last five drafts under Jeff Luhnow.
@Kazakhstanny Danny:
Excuse me. It held up to historical trends from the previous four drafts in the Luhnow era. I didn’t mean to include 2005.
Harvey has big time talent, Brown does not. To me 09 had a few high risk high reward players. Kelly, Bittle, Bighames. Stock isn’t a legit prospect as a pitcher as Vuch said. This is his first year focusing solely on hitting and not splitting attention plus hes only 19. Give the kid some time to develop.
@Kazakhstanny Danny: Not going to say I totally disagree with you but some points I think your just wrong. First off I think Harvey is a much better prospect than you give him credit for. He changed him mechanics to clean up his delivery. That is a MAJOR change for a pitcher no matter how small the adjustments. Usually you see pitchers struggle with consistency and stuff when they do this. Since Harvey was very inconsistent before I think he has taken a big step forward especially late in the year. His stuff is still there and actually some people think better overall as his offspeed offerings are looking much better. He has legit front of the rotation potential and will just need to keep working to get consistency with his new mechanics. If he doesn’t make it as a SP he is definitely a top notch closer…but I just don’t think that is the case.
As far as Brown…I am not interested in him with the 1st round pick. Just doesn’t do it for me. A. Wilson and Cowart are both solid options…I just don’t believe either will be there when we pick. Signability will also be a concern especially with Wilson.
The other piece I don’t agree with is the assessment of our draft last year. And obviously time will tell. Sure we didn’t get as many well known high upside pitchers like the Pirates did last year (Von Rosenberger, Cain, etc) but they also went safe in the 1st round and got a slot type guy in Sanchez. Solid pick but not very inspired for sure. We took the BPA approach and paid over slot for Miller. But here are some guys I see as nice ceiling guys. The thing you have to keep in mind when guys are available in rounds 4, 5, 10, etc they are there for a reason…they are not as refined and even if there are tools there it will take plenty of time in most cases to find out if he will blossum and get to the bigs or not. Bittle, Kelly, Stock (yes I believe he has a solid ceiling but will need 2-3 years to show his potential in the upper minors), Virgil Hill, Hector Hernandez, Matt Carpenter, Bilbona (DNS but good pick), Bighames
Obviously there has been some frustration over the years with our draft strategy and how many guys we missed on. But now that our system has a little bit of depth in the upper minors I think we will see us taking younger guys with upside since we don’t need them to move as quickly in the system and we are missing those star prospects except for Miller. Most drafts are judged by your 1st round picks as those are the well known guys and the ones that have the best chance to become All-Star caliber players…but realistically its the teams that can find solid talent all throughout the draft (either high upside or high ceiling) that make a solid overall system.
I believe MO has actually said this in the past that starting last year they were starting a new strategy of drafting higher upside guys as they felt they were where they needed to be in terms of filling up the minors with players that can at least be competeitive. Pretty much he said they had a lot of spots to fill in to make the farm system decent and now they are able to go for the boom and bust types.
@JC:
I have to disagree with quite a bit of what you say in your post. Bittle is by no means a high upside pick. In fact, he was a senior pitcher who profiles only as a reliever, with a shoulder that is hamburger. That was a risky pick from the beginning, and had only the upside of a righty reliever. Matt Carpenter is not a high upside pick, he was an organizational filler type who has always had talent, but didn’t work hard enough. I believe he too was a senior draft pick. Just because a kid comes from high school (like Bighames) does not mean he is a high upside talent. Bighames is a guy with some tools, but nothing elite, and was signed with a non-baseball power in Oregon. Joe Kelly is another right handed reliever, the easiest spot to find in all of baseball. I fail to see that as a high upside pick.
Virgil Hill, I’ll agree was a higher upside type pick, but even he was not thought to be an elite talent. I want to see us employ a strategy more similar to the Royals and Red Sox, in that they aren’t afraid to spend money on high school kids who fall due to bonus/commitment (to college) concerns.
Other than the one draft, Luhnow has absolutely shown us his drafts focus on college players that excel on the summer circuits, most notably in wood bat leagues. He loves college summer All-Stars, and definitely loves college right handers. He’s a big fan of the radar gun, and doesn’t place as high a priority on control from his pitchers. I thin this strategy can pay dividends by allowing to fill holes cheaply, and guys to develop more quickly, but I’d like to see a little less extreme high/school to college ratio (one of the highest in the bigs), and focus on guys that have higher ceilings, but may cost a bit more, and move along a little more slowly.
I always remember Brett Anderson sitting there, and we take Gary Daley. Supposedly scared off by his bonus demands, and a strong commitment to Oklahoma State, he signed for 400k. Obviously, teams can look back at every player they passed on that became big in any draft, but it was the logic reason that dumbfounded me so much, only to see the kid sign for a little more than 100k over slot.
From everything I’ve read, we should expect them to open it up a little bit this year, and that’s all I ask. I’m not looking to reinvent the wheel here, just a little more equity in the choices.