The draft is under two weeks away now and the Cardinals are blessed with a plethora of early picks. Specifically they’ll have three top 50 picks in the first round and the supplemental round: #25, #46 and #50.
The Cardinals are a difficult club to make draft predictions about for two reasons: 1) They generally pick late in the draft and 2) they run a tight ship. While it wasn’t a complete surprise given his talent level and the players still available, the Cardinals’ pick of Shelby Miller was an uncharacteristic selection of a fireballing high school arm. Prior to that they picked the best bat available to them in Brett Wallace, who was an uncharacteristic pick given his poor defense.
I’m disinclined to try and pigeonhole the Cardinals as having a prediliction for a type of player, but if you force me too there are a couple types of players that you should keep an eye on for draft day:
1) College Arms – Beyond a special first pick, the Cardinals tend to steer toward low ceiling, high floor arms. If they deviate from that, it’s with “raw” college arms that are new to starting pitching (Joe Kelly, Jess Todd) or whose stuff doesn’t quite match their results (Adam Ottavino) or injury risks (Scott Bittle).
2) Advanced Plate Approach – Brett Wallace isn’t the best example here since he was a well-known high profile first round bat. I’m more thinking about guys like Matt Carpenter, Jason Stidham and Shane Peterson. These players generally lack a single standout tool but their overall offensive package is very well-rounded.
3) Toolsy Outfielders – If there’s a place where it seems the Cardinals like tools, it’s in the outfield (and shortstop to a lesser extent). Colby Rasmus would be the original poster child but in more recent years, I’d point to guys like Virgil Hill, Michael Swinson and Jonathan Edwards.
Again, it’s exceedingly difficult to put the Cardinals on the straight and narrow. They’ve shown time and time again that they’re willing to trust their scouts and take the top player on their board. “Their” being the operative word. It’s become cliche to say that the team should simply draft the best player available. I largely agree with that, but I think the Cardinals have a organization that is unbalanced enough to place a slightly higher emphasis on some areas. This isn’t an advocacy for picking an outfielder who is only average over an incredible catcher. It’s a request to balance the assets of the farm system.
My advice for the first 5 rounds:
- Avoid pitchers – There’s too much volatility among pitchers even high in the draft. Additionally, the Cardinals have lot of potential starters in the organization right now. Not all of them will pan out but some of Ottavino, Lynn, Gorgen, Kopp, Hooker, Miller, Kelly, Schneider, Zawacki will. Play the horses you’ve got unless a real stud is available. They’ve got just as many live armed relievers.
- Avoid weak bat middle infielders – Pete Kozma and Ryan Jackson both should have the glove to stick at SS. Jackson’s defense is by far better but Kozma isn’t a schlub at shortstop. The problem is neither one looks to be any great shakes with the bat. We’ve seen that a Brendan Ryan type can be not only acceptable but advantageous. You don’t want your whole organization comprised of them though.
- Pick the best offense-oriented player you can with your top pick (within reason) – Quick, name the Cardinals top position player prospect. Notice that you’ve picked a well-rounded player but one without a standout skill? That’s because the organization doesn’t have much in the way of strong offensive players, toolsy top end players. This is partly by design but it’s also partly because they’ve had guys like Daryl Jones and Tommy Pham go belly up. If there’s one player that stand out to me, it’s the same one that stood out to the red baron: Austin Wilson, OF. He might make it to #25 and if so, I hope the Cardinals jump on him.
The reality is that you have to wait to see what is still on the board to decide how and who you’re going to pick. I think the decision calculus should be weighted toward offense and position players but that all goes out the window once you start talking about specific players available.
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About 50 percent of high draft picks are pitchers. Many will suffer injuries or not pan out, but its a necessary aspect of doing business to expend some high picks on pitchers.
Wilson is an athlete, but is he a signable athlete right now? Wilson can go to Stanford U and still be an elite pick in 3 years. He may not be signable.
Jess Todd was not new to starting pitching, IIRC, as was Joe Kelly. Todd did some starting at Arkansas and before that at juco.
IF Wilson is availible at 25 and the Cardinals don’t take him, I will have lost faith in Lunhow and to some extent, Mo. I realize I’m not a scout and thus my opinion is meaningless, but I feel fairly confident in saying that Austin Wilson will be a very good major leaguer in the future.
One thing is for sure, the Cardinals front office has shown a willingness and strong desire to sign their high picks and invest a fair amount of money in the prospects lately (Miller, Mateo, etc.) so I’m not very concerned about a guys signability. I truely believe our farm system is underrated, but like you said, we need a big-time offensive force interjected into the minors and that is exactly what Austin Wilson could be. If they got him, I would be fine with low-ceiling/high-floor guys for our other two picks in the Top 50..
Wilson fell out of the first round in Law’s latest mock. Any chance he might even be there at 46/50 due to signability issues?
Speaking of Virgil Hill, any idea where he starts this season? NYPL?
I think everyone is misunderstanding the signability issues with Wilson. The issue is that he might want to go to college, much like Cole did two years ago even after the Yankees drafted him, no matter how much money is offered. If that is the feeling that our scouts get from talking with him, I have no problem passing on him. I’d much rather have a year of development from pick 26, 46, or 50, than picking new at 25a, 46a, or 50a next year. If they want to take him in the teen rounds and offer him 1st round money, I’m fine with that.
To build on Ryde’s point about the amount of pitchers in drafts–there’s also more spots for them in the system. Springfield may have 1 or 2 guys who could play an infield position everyday, but they have at least 5 guys in the starting pitcher role. That, combined with pitching prospect attrition rates, means that every organization is going to pick a high amount of them in any given draft.
That said, I think Az’s recommendation for staying away from pitchers has to do with the Cardinals’ first three picks than the entire draft.
Couple of notes on your post. First off I disagree with your assessment on avoiding pitching with your first pick. My philosophy on the 1st round picks is select BPA no matter the position in a price range your willing to spend. This draft is a very light hitting draft for high upside and the strength is RHP’s for the top portion of the draft (1st/2nd Rd). I am not sure what kind of draft budget the Cards have but I would have to think its higher than normal with two 1S picks that will require high 6 figure or more bonuses. As far as Wilson there is a reason why he is slipping (even though I think his slipping is a little extreme). His pitch recognition has not come along like many scouts had hoped. He has a ton of monster tools but if he can’t recognize a breaking ball then he will have trouble against advanced pitching. He would be a project that would take awhile to progress in the minors IMO. But with that you have elite type talent. I personally think someone in the Top 15-20 picks will snag him. The other issue with Wilson is his signability…word on the street is he is going to be a very tough sign and will require big dollars. Are we willing to go that far over slot? History suggests we will go over slot…but not 2x or more over slot. With all that said I would be thrilled to get Wilson…but I just don’t see the Cards as a good match based on our history. If Brentz is there that would be a good fit, even Castellanos is an easier sign from my understanding. I believe there will be more solid pitching options at #25 than hitting from an upside perspective…will be interesting to see what we do with the first 4 or 5 picks we have though.
The strength of this draft is pitching, RHPs in particular, both college and high schoolers. Would it make sense to disregard the strength of a draft?
Virgil Hill is a good example. He’s a project. Hill did not excel in the GCL last summer, despite two years of juco play. I’d like to see the Cards roll the dice on toolsy guys at rounds 4 to 7, but it may take 6+ years to turn some into ML players. Darryl Jones, how long is it going to take him to learn to hit?
I don’t have ESPN Insider. . .anyone care to let it slip who Law has us taking at 25? (insert Shanky is a cheap ba***ard joke here).
From perusing the online mock draft databases, most have us selecting college arms (J. Hahn is mentioned prominently), or a high school bat (J. O’Conner, K. Bryant, N. Castellanos). O’Conner intrigues me, but only if he could stick in the middle infield. K. Bryant just reminds me too much of a bigger version of Chris Haas.
I think we have to take BPA in the draft with an eye towards a long range future rather than someone we can fast track. Wilson is a long term project and he seems to be the type of guy who will be upfront about if he wants to go to college. Many palyers will say this is the number that will keep me from my college commit. We just have to find out what the the number is. After Wilson, Matt Harvey is my second pick, he’s probably Top 3 in talent for SP in the whole draft and could help Cardinal fans forget Porcello as they each were drafted the same year originally and had both signed commits to UNC. Seiler has the Cardinals taking Bryce Brentz in his latest draft. He’s like Wilson with a slightly lower ceiling and a slightly lower chance to totally bust. I doubt Brentz makes it to 25 as he has been a in the 10-15 range all year and recently dropped because he has a broken foot and hasn’t played much. I’ve said this quite a few times but last year MO said that they feel that the farm system is where it needs to be depth wise and that they can put a good product out so they will now focus on high ceiling impact guys that they hadn’t focused on in years past. You also have to think that with the intent to sign Albert and already having Holliday and a lot of money wrapped up in a few people that the organization sees the need to find real high impact young players who can be above average big leaguers for a league minimum. I see it as kind of a Tampa Bay Ray philosophy except for that we have more money and alot of it is spent on AP and MH and we fill in the rest of the team with young players who can be stars.
Shanky I believe Law had us taking Matt Harvey like many people do. My feeling is that he was valued around 25 before the season began and he hadn’t answered questions about consistance and mechanics He has been great this year and I don’t think he lasts to us unfortunately as he is second on my list of guys I want.
Whether it is worth the risk to draft Wilson or some other difficult sign at #25 depends on what alternatives are available. If you dont see another near sure thing impact player I think you take the chance with 25a next year as the consolation prize if you cant sign the guy.
The other issue is why does he want to go to college? Is it the education or to play baseball? You might be able to work out a contract that only requires him to play baseball on vacations from school for a few years if education is the issue.
Andrew – thanks a bunch. I wouldn’t hate a Matt Harvey selection.
Re: Brentz, don’t see us going college bat, but I was wrong in 2008 too with the Wallace selection. Not a very Cardinal-like pick, but he did pay off with immediate trade value the following year.
I’ll repeat that I really like the O’Conner kid. . .hard-nosed Midwestern boy with serious pop in his bat who might be able to stick at SS.
Shanky-Brentz isn’t just a college bat he’s a long term solution in RF. He’s one of the most physically talented hitters in the draft period. I really don’t see him as just a college bat, he’s not as developed as Wallace and still has alot to learn. He seems like a high upside prep player without such a high chance for bust.
Cario- From all that i’ve read Wilson is a brilliant young man. His parents were both Ivy Leaguers and I think they said he may be Valevictorian. (sp) I believe he want’s to go to college because he sees the value of it and knows he can have a pro career after he graduates. I think he wants to go to college but its a matter of what will it cost a team for him to not go to college. I’m sure he’s figuring that number now and I’m sure he will be upfront and honest with all the teams. No one should draft him unless they already know what it will take and are willing to sign him.
I think you almost have to take Austin Wilson if he is sitting there at 25. Who else could possibly be present the upside that Wilson provides should he pan out. You are looking at an impact right fielder if he pans out. The Cardinals lack any high impact players outside of Shelby Miller, and that is something the Cardinals sorely need to address. The Cardinals have enough RHP relief pitching and enough back-of-the-end rotation starters, now is not the time to go safe in the first round. Grab Wilson earlier, help use the money that wasn’t given to Wagner Mateo and get Wilson signed should he be picked. Than worry about going with safer, easier to sign picks in the supplementary first round and second round. Than grab a high risk, high reward in the fourth round again.
The Cardinals NEED an impact bat in their system, and Wilson would be the perfect choice to take a risk on.
i would hope the Cards take the best player available, no matter what positions they play or how much they will cost. just please get the best guys they can get
I think they will I think the signing of Mateo and Miller showed the teams committment to young impact players.
I heart Kyle Parker, although it would cost some money to talk him out of football, no? I’m with AZ on pitching, unless there’s a real stud just get the best hitter available. That said, I think Seth Blair would attract the Cardinals. He’s has enough pitches to stick as a starter and throws a hard sinker.
Erik-Do you take Harvey if he’s available?
Keith Law, BA and the rest of the whole world it seems have him down for the Cardinals in their mock drafts. He’s grown on me a bit more, he misses bats and gets groundouts, but I still worry about his control and lack of overall polish. It depends on who else is around, but I wouldn’t mind if the pick is Harvey.
I am more than a little bit concerned about the ability of the hitting instructors in the minors for the Cards. How many high-talent guys have fizzled down on the farm for the ‘Birds? Obvious names like Shaun Boyd and Calvin Hayes pop up among those who are no longer in the organization. Currently we have Tommy Pham and Daryl Jones standing out on that list, although I still feel that Jones at least can develop into a 4th OF. Obviously there are guys that continue to hit in the minors, but most of them will be lucky to ultimately catch on in a bench role in the majors. At some point the Cards have to actually develop the hitters they are drafting in the first 5 rounds, and they seem to have a hard time with that. Sadly three of the guys who seem to have bats that could be highly valuable to the Cards in the future are 1B. If Pujols stays in STL, then Mark Hamilton, Curt Smith and Xavier Scruggs are going to need to learn other defensive positions to have much of a chance to contribute.
I agree to a point but really is it a matter of instruction or a matter of scouting and drafting? If we draft someone that just doesn’t have it in them to be a great hitter you can’t fault the hitting instruction for them not being great hitters. That being said I agree that the bats are really falling behind the arms in our farm system.
I would be down on Harvey too. Command of a live fastball is the #1 tool for a young pitcher. It is a tool that predicts the development of the other skills a pitchers needs. If you have good command of a 93mph fastball then you probably have the athletic ability to control a good breaking pitch.
Agreed. . .we need a bat. In fact, of our three picks in the top 50, I think two of those need to be impact bats. . .including at least one boom/bust type (a prepster like Wilson, Castellano, J. Sale, O’Conner), and one consistent, rock-solid college bat (Vitek or Gyorko come to mind).
What about Kellin Deglan?
Shanky- I disagree with your characterization of those players. The only real boom bust player in either group is Wilson. The other ones are pretty solid locks to at least hit. I know I don’t want Gyorko in the first round.
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