Draft Prospect: Kolbrin Vitek
Posted on May 26th, 2010 by erik in 2010 MLB Draft, tags: kolbrin vitekThe smart people at Project Prospect held their community mock draft. I need few excuses to talk about draft prospects this time of year, so let’s talk about who the pick was for the Cardinals – Kolbrin Vitek, an infielder for Ball State.
First, here’s his context adjusted numbers via College Splits.
| Kolbrin Vitek | GP | AB | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | wOBA | BB% | K% | xbh% |
| Park/Sch Adj. | 55 | 220 | 17 | 32 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 0.485 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 50.6 |
The Cardinals tend to favor college performers, and Vitek certainly fits the bill. The only thing that concerns me a bit is the walk rate. A 10.1% BB rate is a red flag because he might be getting pitched around as it is, as Ball State is not some sort of powerhouse in a major conference. I’m not sure what the translation is of a 10.1% walk rate is from the NCAA to the minors, but I can’t believe it’s very good.
So what do scouts say?
Here’s the gist I get around the interwebs:
- He’s a 2B now, but he’s going to have to move to either third or an outfield corner, although he does have enough speed to possibly cover center field. He has plenty of arm – he doubles as a pitcher for Ball State and can get it up there in the 88-92 MPH range.
- He squares up on a lot of balls, makes good contact, can use the whole field. Has very quick hands and great bat speed. Hitting for average should not be a problem for Vitek. He does have a bit of a level swing, limiting his overall power.
Here’s a scouting video of his, props to whoever put this together for throwing in slo-mo:
I’ll give Kolbrin Vitek this, he has a fun name to say. That aside, the lack of defensive skill and patience at the plate is a little concerning. I wouldn’t be too quick to give up on him at the keystone. I’m not really sold on him at #25, but I think the Cardinals could do worse. What do you think?
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I wouldn’t hate coming out of the draft with Vitek, but not at 25. Seems more like a compensation round selection for me. . .for my money, at 25, I want a bat with slightly higher upside (Austin Wilson or Justin O’Conner), or a college bat like Christian Colon who will actually stay in the middle infield in the pros. Vitek would only be good value at 25 if he could stay at 2B IMO.
I gotta say I think Vitek is a better prospect than Colon at this point. I doubt he makes it to 25 thought. Talk of him at 9 to San Diego is pretty consistant. Most think he can stick at 2b which makes him really valueable.
I am not going to say I dislike Vitek because thats just not true. But I am just lukewarm on him and definitely would not be thrilled to see him go to us at #25. If we stick with the strategy of the BPA that will sign somewhere between slot and 50% overslot (which I think is reasonable for the right player – last yr Miller got $2.875 which was like 80% over slot at #19) then there are some very attractive players that might be available. Its really hard to tell who gets to #25 but here are some intriguing players that might fit this strategy: Brentz, Castellanos, Gausman, Harvey, Cowart (might be asking for more than we are willing to spend), Eibner, Ranaudo, Cole, Covey and Cabrera. I would be perfectly OK with any of those guys (assuming Ranaudo is really healthy).
Gausman has dropped to the point where we may be able to get him at 46. MOst likely Castellanos and Cowart will be gone by 25. Eibner is no interest for me. Cole and Covey are probably gone too. Brentz was slotted as 10-15 but Seilers had him with Cardinals last mock I dont see him falling that far. Carera will be there Harvey will also.
@Andrew: Its hard to tell at this pt who will be available but Castellanos will most likely be gone unless signability is worse than expected. Cole, Covey and Cole are all over the board in the 1st round throughout the year…so who knows. Eibner has a legit shot of being there and I am starting to like him more…not my top pick though. I am big fans of Harvey, Cabrera (wished we could get him in 1S round though…but becoming less likely) and Brentz. I also am high on Gausman which it seems to be a mixed bag on him. I love the draft!
Vitek won’t be there at 25. He has a good chance of going in the top ten picks, and will almost certainly be taken in the first twenty. He has fantastic hands and should be a very good hitter, though.
His swing looks almost exactly like Mike Sweeney (the one who was on the royals for forever)
Vitek’s glove doesn’t last at 2nd? Just asking–
here is another mock draft
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/05/26/mlb-mock-draft-2-0-the-full-first-round/
the above mock link likes Cole at #25,
looking forward to the real draft and hope the Cardinals take the BAP.
In the first round, the Cards tend to value players who can contribute on defense, like Rasmus, Greene, Kozma, Stock. We can find collegiate hitters at lower rounds, like Allen Craig in the 8th. Unlikely the Cards would choose Vitek.
@bigchieftootiemontana: You mean the mock like Colon at #25…not Cole. They have Cole going to Twins at #21
thanks for the correction JC
Ryde-don’t bet on them following the pattern this year. I think they are drafting for upside and impact this yaer and will take BPA.
I don’t like any of those picks on the Project Prospect mock (especially taking Vitek over Kaleb Cowart). I expect Vitek to be gone by 25 as well but even if he was there I’m not sure I’d take him if he cannot stick at 2B.
You have to wonder if Cowart goes to college just so he can establish himself more as a position player. Maybe even telling teams he will not sign unless it’s as a hitter. The Red Sox want him as a position player so I see them taking him at 20. I can see Vitnek being a Ryne Sandburg type player at second if he can stick there.
My guess is the Cards will select the Best Starting Pitcher available. He could be somebody who falls because of lofty bonus expectations like Miller last year or a high schooler who they bump up the rankings. Or he could be a college pitcher. There are a lot of pitchers to consider and to choose among.
Cowart is a talented player, in a strong bargaining position, Georgia Tech or a big bonus. The Cards sprang for a big bonus for a high school pitcher last year, because thats what it takes to get a premium arm. They have yet to do this with a high school hitter and I will believe it only after it happens.
@rydeshelby: Brett Wallace could contribute on defense? Shelby Miller? I don’t buy that pattern of thinking.
I would take Vitek w/o hesitation. He’s 6’3″, 195, but looks like he has a lot of room to fill out. The video shows smooth, athletic movements, along with the quick hands, noted above. He may have a relatively low walk rate for a middle-of-the-lineup hitter, but I don’t see any impatience in the ABs on the videotape. He looks like he doesn’t mind going deep into counts to wait for his pitch, but has a relatively low strikeout rate for a guy with some power. He makes contact w. 2 strikes.
I’m more worried about a guy like Brentz (who fell to the Cards in at least one mock draft I saw), who has a higher strikeout rate against questionable competition.
Of those two, I’d rather have Vitek, based on what I’ve seen and read.
Az, you came up with the idea of drafting no pitchers. A stimulating thought, yet impractical.
Wallace was a sure fire ML hitter, so the Cards stockpiled the asset and later used him as a trade chip. Wallace made sense, given the choices available at pick 12 in 2008. Ball State, source of first round flop Larry Bigbie, is not Arizona State. If Vitek cannot stay at 2B, he would become unspecial if moved to corner OF.
If we want a corner OF, the Cards might rate the Clemson slugging quarterback higher, because Parker performed within a better collegiate league. Or we might rate the UVa Parker higher, because he has a good bod and a left swing (like Wallace, Peterson, Rasmus).
Ryde- They spent money on a LOT risker prospect than a high school hitter, they spent over 3 million on a 17 year old Wagner Mateo. Even though the contract was revoked I think spendnig that type of money on someone so young and who needs alot of development shows that the team is willing to spend money if they come across a special talent no matter if they are in HS or College or international.
Lou- From what I’ve read Brentz has alot more upside while Vitnek is a much safer pick who is only a first rounder if he can stick at 2b. I think the discussion is a moot point because the Padres will probably take him at 9. If we knew that he wouldn’t stick at 2nd I would much rather have Justin O’Conner who is a similar type of athlete.
Oh man, I love the draft!
Take Vitek ONLY if he can stick at 2B, IMO. But, I truly think the Cards will take a high-ceiling guy at 25, because of the relative early success of Miller and the quotes from Mo that they need more impact guys in the system. To me, that implies taking a guy at 25 who they have ranked in their top 10-15 who slips for signability or other reasons. I think the days of reaching for a guy who will sign for slot are over.
If that guy is Vitek, and they have him ranked that highly, then so be it. But all I ask is they don’t take a guy who’s a consensus compensation or second round talent at 25.
Theo Epstein was at Vitek’s conference tournament game yesterday (1-3 plus a walk) therefore I doubt he will be around past #20. Vitek rumored to be linked to Cleveland @ #5, San Diego @ #9, Cincy @ #12, then the Red Sox @ #20. San Diego seems to be the most aggressive. Cleveland and Cincy possibly because Vitek is from Ohio…?
For those of you with ESPN Insider, Keith Law says “the Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals are interested in Ohio prep righty Stetson Allie.”
I think Allie will be there at #25 but I would only take him if he’s still there at #46 (doubtful).
@cariocacardinal: Any specific reason? I think I read that he struggled with command earlier in the year but has improved a great deal over the last month.
I know we need a big bat, but I have this feeling that Wilson is going to college no matter what. No “advisor”, Ivy League parents, scholarship to Stanford, great student.
@Wade:
My reading says that many project Allie as a reliever. I dont care if he’s Chris Perez, I dont want to use pick #25 on a reliever. (now if he was a LH Chris Perez I might consider it :) ). Just my opinion
Again, if its education Wilson is after, why not sign him and let him go to school and just play summers for 3-4 years?
That’s a lot of money to pay to Wilson to not be 100 committed to baseball.
asked Klaw over twitter … “Allie has the raw material to be a starter, may never have the command. Have to develop him as a starter first.”
@Andrew: That’s especially true for a player at Stanford where classes don’t end until mid-June and the minor league season is already half over. It’s hard to improve when you are not playing.
I think he could always do online classses during the off season. I believe that he will be upfront on what it will take to sign him. Will the recent improvement of Allie I see no chance that he drops to 25.
@Andrew: Yes the Cards will spend money on a special talent. So who did they regard as special in the case of Wagner? A left swinging OF. He got even slightly more than JD Drew back in 1998. Vitek does not swing left. It could happen, but he seems like a longshot for the top choice.
@Shanky: It worked out ok when the Cards moved up consensus comp round Rasmus in 2005. It can work out and free up bonus money for another signing.
@cariocacardinal: Allie should go early, but if the Cards go for a pitcher, they will aim for a guy with starting pitcher potential, more than a radar gun wonder.
Ryde-I wasn’t considering Vitnek the special talent I was talking about. I was just disagreeing with you saying they would probably just take the best starting pitcher. I don’t think thats the case unless the BPA is a pitcher like Cole or Harvey.
@Andrew: The draft is top heavy in RHPs. In the first 5 rounds, the Cards get 7 picks. Probability wise, 4 will be pitchers.
I agree I just don’t think the first pick will be a pitcher unless its Harvey. I see this taking 3 pitchers in the first 5 rounds. We currently have alot of organizational depth for pitching.
It may be worth taking stock of organizational depth.
For starting pitchers, at the A level, the best seem Hooker and Miller; Kopp may be reviving and Gorgen was doing well before injury, at AA; and at Memphis have been Walters, Ottavino, Lynn.
Most developed position players: Greene & Kozma (SS); Anderson & Hill (c); Craig & Jay (OF); Hamilton (1B); Descalso (2B).
Most over-hoped: Jones (OF) and Stock (c).
The Cards could benefit from adding talent most anywhere except relief pitchers.
@Ryan: You got a link to this reference? I have insider but can’t seem to locate a post by Law that references this info. Thanks.
If he could stick at 2b, he would have to be the pick. I agree that this draft has to turn out a couple of good position players. I would also look at Paxton and Allie if they are around at 46. Gary Brown’s name keps popping up at 50. Another guy to watch is Rick Hague. He seems to be a solid all aruond type of SS (assuming his glove sticks)
@JC: it was in May 27 mlb draft blog by klaw
@Wade: Thanks…I found it now.
The Cards look at all the top talents, Allie being one among them. Luhnow went to Connecticut to look at Harvey before the 2007 draft, and to Indiana to look at the pitcher selected by the Arizona. Then we chose Kozma. Last year, they had Mike Trout, Grishak, and Pollock doing tryouts at Busch just before draft day.
Does any one know who has worked out at Busch or who we have been scouting heavily this year?
@Andrew: Follow Cards Best News Links web site between now and the draft to see who gets mentioned in the media.
I agree with Lou Schuler. Vitek would be a pretty nice pickup at 25. I think he’s got the tools(quick hands, quick hips, good swing) to be a .280-.300 hitter and I think the size and swing offer up 15-20 HR power at least. His speed and arm profile well in the outfield, especially RF where the Cardinals only outfield hole is for the future. He’s also got the speed to be a pretty good 2 hitter. The BB rate doesn’t fit in the 2 hole but the average and speed does.
I’d be ok with Vitek at 25.
per Klaw via the twitter: I don’t believe Austin Wilson has given out a number, but his parents are very pro-college. Money won’t be the deciding factor.
Thanks for the props on the video.
Here is a link to our scouting report that accompanied the video:
http://www.prospectjunkies.com/2010/05/scouting-report-kolbrin-vitek-2brhp.html