A Look at Recent Mock Draft Picks
Posted on May 29th, 2010 by erik in 2010 MLB Draft, tags: brandon workman, christian colon, stetson allieWe’re just a little over a week away from the MLB draft, and more mock drafts have surfaced in recent days. Here’s the experts educated guesses of who the Cardinals could be drafting 25th overall.
- Jim Callis, Baseball America: Brandon Workman, RHP, U of Texas
- Frankie Piliere, AOL Fanhouse: Christian Colon, SS, Cal State Fullerton
- Jason Churchill, ProspectInsider.com and ESPN.com: Stetson Allie, RHP, St. Edward HS (OH)
Workman was drafted in the 3rd round in 2008 by the Philadelphia but the Phillies phailed to sign him. (Couldn’t resist)
Here’s Seiler’s scouting report:
In terms of raw stuff, Workman could be a top 15 pick, but command is the thing that holds him back. His fastball is a plus pitch that sits 91-94, and he can touch 96 at times. He struggles to command it in the upper range of that velocity range, and scouts would prefer him to use a heavier 91-93 pitch down in the zone. His curveball is one of the best breakers in the draft, but it doesn’t rate as the best in Texas due to Taillon’s plus-plus bender. Workman’s is a power curve with plus late break, and that pair of plus pitches makes him a potential #2/3 starter in the long run.
BA calls his curveball a “knockout pitch” and also notes he has a cut fastball in his arsenal as well. Here’s his schedule and park adjusted numbers from CollegeSplits.com:
| ERA | FIP | IP | HR | BB | K | AVG | BABIP | WHIP | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | |
| Workman | 3.77 | 4.15 | 88 | 7 | 18 | 92 | 0.257 | 0.333 | 1.19 | 0.71 | 1.83 | 9.37 |
And here’s a look at him via YouTube:
Brandon Workman fact: His dad is named Roger, and he was part of the Dharma Initiative before he tragically was murdered by Brandon’s half-brother, Benjamin Linus. Linus’ whereabouts are unknown at this time. (I am … ashamed of my geekery)
Callis mentions Colon as another possible option should Colon slide to #25, and that’s a real possibility given that Scott Boras is his adviser. Bryan Smith on Colon:
I don’t think we can ignore that Colon’s last summer, with Team USA, was one of the best national team performances we’ve seen. He was slow out of the gate this season, but really came back, and continued to show his contact abiliy. In over 700 at-bats at Fullerton, Colon now has a walk-to-strikeout ratio of 73-64, and also has a habit of getting plunked. Defensively, he’s probably a tweener; a below-average shortstop, a solid-average second baseman. I’m guessing his lack of speed will get him moved to second eventually.
Like a right-handed Adrian Cardenas, Colon’s biggest praise comes from his hit tool, and the rest of the praise comes from his work ethic. He showed last summer how good he can be with wood, and I have no question he’ll be able to hit for a high average, and walk enough to post a good OBP. A career path resembling Cliff Pennington’s wouldn’t shock me, so ultimately, I think a team needs to decide if that is the value they want from their first rounder.
That doesn’t sound too promising. I wonder if Colon’s defense is being undersold because of the lack of speed. MGL showed there is no correlation between speed score and UZR, meaning you don’t have to be a burner to be able to pick it at shortstop. I think this might be a scouting bias. Colon ranked very well in CollegeSplits statistical evaluation system, and I’m sure he ranked highly for other reasons than his bat. I wouldn’t be too quick to relegate him to another position.
Anywho, here’s his relevant, context-adjusted numbers:
| PA | HR | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | K% | BB% | XBH% | |
| Colon | 241 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 0.341 | 0.438 | 0.614 | 0.454 | 5.8% | 12.9% | 40.0% |
That’s a pretty low strikeout rate, to be sure. YouTubage:
Stetson Allie would be like this year’s Shelby Miller. He’s 6-4, 225 and throws up to 98 MPH. He has an above average hard slider and the makings of a good change-up.
Colon strikes me a bit like Pete Kozma all over again. He’s a gamer, he’s a heady player, but his overall set of tools is underwhelming. But then again, I don’t think he would quite be Kozma 2, Electric Bustaboo. Unlike Kozma, Colon is expected to hit, and I suspect that his defense could be better than advertised.
Workman is intriguing, but I’m sort of “meh” on drafting pitchers in the first round. That is, unless that pitcher is Stetson Allie. I’d be thrilled to get him in the system, even if I’m not really big on drafting high school pitchers because of they risk they carry. There’s some dreaming a guy could do, imagining Miller and Allie in the same rotation.
I do know this: I have no idea who the Cardinals will pick. I’ve been way off every year. Callis nailed it with the Wallace pick two years ago. I never suspected they’d draft Shelby Miller or Pete Kozma. I’m sure we’ll be surprised again this year.
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In my opinion, Allie and Colon will be gone by 25. Workman seems like a nice project if he’s the BPA available at the time he should. I’ve seen him falling as low as 40-50 because of his recent struggles. If he’s available at 46 we need to take him. Other 2 guys wont be there at 25.
I would be shocked if they picked Stetson Alli. He sounds like a big project in some ways. I think they will look for quicker/safer investments to replenish the system after the 2009 trades.
I remember when they drafted Kozma the Cardinals made a point to suggest running speed was not = infield defense. I think Erik’s analysis makes sense.
I don’t think he will be around at 25 and I expect the unexpected with Cardinals in the first round.
Honestly, I want us to stay away from Workman. Something just screams reliever to me and a reliever in the first round just doesn’t work value wise. And I whole heartily agree about the Colon part. Unless the board is looking pretty poor, you go with someone besides Colon. And I’m not so sure that Colon will be available at 25.
Allie is a HUGE project, much like Casey Kelly was in the ’08 draft. Somehow I feel that the Cardinals aren’t going to want to grab a huge risk player like Allie with their farm system. While I would love the Cardinals to draft Austin Wilson, I don’t think it is realistic that the Cards would.
Nick Castellanos, Zack Cox (should he fall like I think he will), and Kolbrin Vitek are the guys I would be looking at if I were a betting man.
@Alex: >>I would be shocked if they picked Stetson Alli. He sounds like a big project in some ways. I think they will look for quicker/safer investments to replenish the system after the 2009 trades.<<
That would be the Cardinals' MO (no pun intended) but they are in an unusual position this year. First, the right handed pitching purge was relievers. We have a nice pipeline of those already in place (Salas, Sanchez, Mulligan, Reifer). Second, we have established starting pitching prospects either at Memphis or in AAAA status (Walters, Ottavino, Lynn) and a solid high end starting prospect in low minors (Shelby Miller). Third, in this year's draft we have our first rounder plus two supp picks. For those reasons, we are in the perfect position to roll the dice and draft a high ceiling high schooler in the first round then go for depth (or high floor, low ceiling) with the supps. Mozeliak seems to learn from his mistakes and improve as he ages in the job (which is very commendable). If the BPA at 25 is a high upside high schooler like Allie, I wouldn't be surprised if the Cards pulled the trigger. In fact, I'd expect it.
Workman’s delivery looks alot like Mitchell Boggs’ delivery. I can see why he has control issues with all the movement in his body. I would stay away from him.
I like Allie’s delivery much better. Pretty smooth although he certainly maxes out on his pitches.
jjray,
I agree with your thinking to some extent. And I think should go for “upside” in the first round. But Alli is much more of a risk than typical high-ceiling guy. They could probably find other high school players who don’t throw straight fastballs with well below-average control.
I also think they should stay away fwiw. Allie is a high-effort reliever in the long run and I want more SP in the Cards system.
Kozma was a surprise because we did not know how much the organization wanted to load up on SSes. Yet now with Jackson, Valera, Castillo, Garcia, Kozma, Niko Vasquez, it would be a surprise to see them invest in Colon. He can probably be ruled out.
Allie can probably also be ruled out as a Cards pick. Shelby Miller was more advanced and still looks to have a lot to learn. Allie will take longer and be riskier.
Of these choices, Workman seems smartest. But when it gets to draft day, there is often a rush to college pitchers. I doubt Workman is still available at 25.
One strength of the US amateur talent this year is lots of pitching. Since good position players are in short supply, the Cards could grab a player at 25, expecting to add pitchers at 46/50/2nd rd, like 2007, when they went Kozma, Mortensen, Kopp, Todd.
For a position player, the Cards could use an OF with pop. There are Clemson OF Parker and Viriginia OF Parker.
Or the Cards could simply focus on starting pitchers, because if they get too many, one can be traded. Like Ottavino in 2006, they could take a collegiate of good size, somebody like Workman, Hahn, LaRoux. This is the likeliest outcome. Or, to be interesting, they could select a high school pitcher like Tyrell Jenkins, earmarked for the Yankees at 32 by Jim Callis. We scout Texas closely and showed last draft that we can select a high school pitcher.
@Alex: Good point. I really don’t follow college baseball so didn’t mean to advocate for Allie specifically, just the thought that the Cards should be open to take more risk in round 1 2010 than their track record advocates. I’ll be disappointed if we pick a polished college pitcher who excites no one in Round 1.
I’m not an expert at analyzing players, but in the video Workman really throws across his body, something unusual for a righty. I know a lot of lefties who do this have injury problems. I expect the same is true for righties but I don’t know for sure. In any case, Workman doesn’t do much for me as a first-round choice.
@Karmaloop: I don’t think Kelly was considered a project when he was drafted. He fell more because of the UT football commitment and wanting to be a SS when everyone saw him as better on the mound. BOS paid him and gave him 1/2 a season as a SS to show him he had a better future as a P.
Stetson would be a great pick at 25, as he has an upside far higher than most players in the draft. If he makes it that far, I’d be thrilled to get him into the system. I’d say it’s a fair bet that they’re going to be drafting several college right handers who fared well in summer All-Star leagues, and against wood bats, so that balances out the risk somewhat.
I’d also love to look at Austin Wilson, should he make it that far, and Vitek would be a solid selection. Someone that I can’t get out of my mind as the type of player the Cards seem to like is Brett Eibner out of Arkansas. The Cards seem to love athletic prospects who both pitch and hit. He has massive power potential, and a great arm and athletic ability. He wants to hit, but he has a free and easy motion on the mound, with a fastball that gets good sink. He has a curveball that has the makings of a plus pitch, but obviously needs work due to not focusing on pitching full-time. He also plays in a power conference, and has been successful on the summer circuit.
He’s not the guy I’d take personally, but he’s definitely the type of kid the Cards like to take given their track record.
One thing I noticed when watching the video of Allie is that his chin is all over the place. Some pitches he keeps his chin up and off of his chest, and other pitches he really ducks it down and looks “max effort.” He tended to be pretty erratic on the pitches he was moving his head and chin around upon release, and looked a lot more free and easy when he was under control and kept his head on level.
He does look raw in that video from 2009, and he could probably use his legs a tad better and stop dragging his arm, but when he has his mechanics, he is smooth, and the ball really jumps. He has a long way to go to make the big leagues, and the bust/injury factor is definitely there for a high school right hander, but his talent is undeniable.
I’ve seen a few innings that looked better than this particular video did, as the kid I saw had a lot of work to do before he’d be anywhere near ready to face major league hitters. As a high school junior though, that’s to be expected. If that video was all I’d ever seen from Allie, I wouldn’t be as high on him as I am.
@Vision: I can’t get Eibner out of my head, either. Good call. I really like him a lot and I have a good feeling that the Cardinals take him. If they do, I’ll be happy. I think I actually like him better as a hitter, but they could go the Casey Kelly route and let him try both for halves of seasons and decide there.
I’m hoping none of the names mentioned so far will be the pick. I think Luhnow can do better and hopefully he will.
@Vision: Luhnow has a little history w/SEC draft picks, too. Bittle, Lynn, Todd.
Wouldn’t be upset Erik, as long as they go for some pitchers with upside (read: don’t profile as relievers in the big leagues), in the supplemental and second rounds. I have watched Brett Eibner in person twice, and he was the best player on the field both times I saw him (that includes Cox). He pitched a 7 inning shutout, and hit two solo HR’s in a 2-0 win for Arkansas over Missouri State, and then pitched (off memory), 5 shutout innings and hit another HR in a narrow win over Missouri State another time.
NMStar, who would you think would be a better pick than everyone mentioned, AND would be available at 25? I’m perplexed by that statement.
Anyone take the chance on Ranaudo if he is there? I would think about it long and hard. Even if he has an elbow problem, those have become science, and have a great comeback rate. High upside with that kid, but maybe a high bust as well.
@Wade: IIRC, the upside was from his arm because he hadn’t really done a whole lot of pitching. He did fall because of his commitment to play football at UT and his preference to play shortstop.
@Vision: Vision, I was referring to the guys mentioned as potential Cards’ picks from the mock drafts–not other guys mentioned in the comments. My statement should have been more clear, sorry. For the guys picked in the mocks above there is something I don’t like in with each: Workman (not sold on his delivery but I wouldn’t hate his selection), Allie (profiles as reliever and reminds me a bit of Kyle Farnsworth), and Colin (Not sure that he can stick at SS).
Eibner intrigues me and I’d love for Austin Wilson to be there. Ranaudo is an interesting guy too. I’m thinking Boston goes strong after one of the top money guys at #20 so I’d guess they’d take one of them (and they supposedly like Vitek too). I also have interest in Justin O’Connor, Asher Wojciechowski, and Barret Loux at #25.
@nmstar:
Gotcha, that makes more sense now. Can Allie kick everyone’s behind or something?
I like Loux as well, I’ve kind of been on him since last year (I coached with an A & M alum). Stuff is there, needs a little refinement. Was really hoping he’s make it to the supplemental round, but doubt it now. Hoping for Folty or Solis in the supplemental round.
@Vision: Naw, when I read of 100 mph straight fastballs I immediately think of Farnsworth (and home runs being hit 450 feet). It wasn’t a temperament comparison. I’ve read Papelbon comps on Allie so that would be much better result. Still, I’d rather get a guy that profiles as a starter in the first round (200 innings vs. 60) unless it is the next Mariano.
I’d like your choices in the supplemental round too. If we could get one of them and my personal fave Garin Cecchini I’d be quite pleased with day one. A week to go now!