We’re just a little over a week away from the MLB draft, and more mock drafts have surfaced in recent days. Here’s the experts educated guesses of who the Cardinals could be drafting 25th overall.
- Jim Callis, Baseball America: Brandon Workman, RHP, U of Texas
- Frankie Piliere, AOL Fanhouse: Christian Colon, SS, Cal State Fullerton
- Jason Churchill, ProspectInsider.com and ESPN.com: Stetson Allie, RHP, St. Edward HS (OH)
Workman was drafted in the 3rd round in 2008 by the Philadelphia but the Phillies phailed to sign him. (Couldn’t resist)
Here’s Seiler’s scouting report:
In terms of raw stuff, Workman could be a top 15 pick, but command is the thing that holds him back. His fastball is a plus pitch that sits 91-94, and he can touch 96 at times. He struggles to command it in the upper range of that velocity range, and scouts would prefer him to use a heavier 91-93 pitch down in the zone. His curveball is one of the best breakers in the draft, but it doesn’t rate as the best in Texas due to Taillon’s plus-plus bender. Workman’s is a power curve with plus late break, and that pair of plus pitches makes him a potential #2/3 starter in the long run.
BA calls his curveball a “knockout pitch” and also notes he has a cut fastball in his arsenal as well. Here’s his schedule and park adjusted numbers from CollegeSplits.com:
And here’s a look at him via YouTube:
Brandon Workman fact: His dad is named Roger, and he was part of the Dharma Initiative before he tragically was murdered by Brandon’s half-brother, Benjamin Linus. Linus’ whereabouts are unknown at this time. (I am … ashamed of my geekery)
Callis mentions Colon as another possible option should Colon slide to #25, and that’s a real possibility given that Scott Boras is his adviser. Bryan Smith on Colon:
I don’t think we can ignore that Colon’s last summer, with Team USA, was one of the best national team performances we’ve seen. He was slow out of the gate this season, but really came back, and continued to show his contact abiliy. In over 700 at-bats at Fullerton, Colon now has a walk-to-strikeout ratio of 73-64, and also has a habit of getting plunked. Defensively, he’s probably a tweener; a below-average shortstop, a solid-average second baseman. I’m guessing his lack of speed will get him moved to second eventually.
Like a right-handed Adrian Cardenas, Colon’s biggest praise comes from his hit tool, and the rest of the praise comes from his work ethic. He showed last summer how good he can be with wood, and I have no question he’ll be able to hit for a high average, and walk enough to post a good OBP. A career path resembling Cliff Pennington’s wouldn’t shock me, so ultimately, I think a team needs to decide if that is the value they want from their first rounder.
That doesn’t sound too promising. I wonder if Colon’s defense is being undersold because of the lack of speed. MGL showed there is no correlation between speed score and UZR, meaning you don’t have to be a burner to be able to pick it at shortstop. I think this might be a scouting bias. Colon ranked very well in CollegeSplits statistical evaluation system, and I’m sure he ranked highly for other reasons than his bat. I wouldn’t be too quick to relegate him to another position.
Anywho, here’s his relevant, context-adjusted numbers:
That’s a pretty low strikeout rate, to be sure. YouTubage:
Stetson Allie would be like this year’s Shelby Miller. He’s 6-4, 225 and throws up to 98 MPH. He has an above average hard slider and the makings of a good change-up.
Colon strikes me a bit like Pete Kozma all over again. He’s a gamer, he’s a heady player, but his overall set of tools is underwhelming. But then again, I don’t think he would quite be Kozma 2, Electric Bustaboo. Unlike Kozma, Colon is expected to hit, and I suspect that his defense could be better than advertised.
Workman is intriguing, but I’m sort of “meh” on drafting pitchers in the first round. That is, unless that pitcher is Stetson Allie. I’d be thrilled to get him in the system, even if I’m not really big on drafting high school pitchers because of they risk they carry. There’s some dreaming a guy could do, imagining Miller and Allie in the same rotation.
I do know this: I have no idea who the Cardinals will pick. I’ve been way off every year. Callis nailed it with the Wallace pick two years ago. I never suspected they’d draft Shelby Miller or Pete Kozma. I’m sure we’ll be surprised again this year.