Posted on May 30th, 2010 by erik in 2010 MLB Draft
With the draft rapidly approaching, I thought it would be interesting to look back at the Cardinals’ high draft picks of the Luhnow era to get a better idea of what they might be doing next week.
| Year |
Rnd |
OvPck |
|
Pos |
WAR |
Type |
Drafted Out of |
| 2005 |
1 |
28 |
*Colby Rasmus |
OF |
2.8 |
HS |
Russell County HS (Seale, AL) |
| 2005 |
1 |
30 |
Tyler Greene |
SS |
0.0 |
4Yr |
Georgia Institute of Technology (Atlanta, GA) |
| 2005 |
1s |
43 |
*Mark McCormick (minors) |
RHP |
|
4Yr |
Baylor University (Waco, TX) |
| 2005 |
1s |
46 |
*Tyler Herron (minors) |
RHP |
|
HS |
Wellington Community HS (Wellington, FL) |
| 2005 |
2 |
70 |
*Joshua Wilson (minors) |
RHP |
|
HS |
Whitehouse HS (Whitehouse, TX) |
| 2005 |
2 |
78 |
Nicholas Webber (minors) |
RHP |
|
4Yr |
Central Missouri State University (Warrensburg, MO) |
| 2005 |
3 |
110 |
Daryl Jones (minors) |
OF |
|
HS |
Spring HS (Spring, TX) |
| 2005 |
4 |
140 |
Bryan Anderson |
C |
|
HS |
Simi Valley HS (Simi Valley, CA) |
| 2005 |
5 |
170 |
Mitchell Boggs |
RHP |
-0.9 |
4Yr |
University of Georgia (Athens, GA) |
| 2005 |
6 |
200 |
Wilfrido Pujols (minors) |
OF |
|
HS |
Fort Osage HS (Fort Osage, MO) |
This is about as college heavy as you can get, but we know by now they’re not afraid to take a high schooler in the first round.
| State |
# of picks |
% |
| AL |
1 |
2.1% |
| ARK |
1 |
2.1% |
| AZ |
1 |
2.1% |
| CA |
10 |
21.3% |
| FL |
6 |
12.8% |
| IL |
2 |
4.3% |
| LA |
2 |
4.3% |
| MA |
2 |
4.3% |
| MO |
2 |
4.3% |
| MS |
3 |
6.4% |
| NV |
1 |
2.1% |
| OH |
1 |
2.1% |
| OK |
1 |
2.1% |
| SC |
2 |
4.3% |
| TX |
7 |
14.9% |
| VA |
1 |
2.1% |
| WA |
1 |
2.1% |
Here’s a shocker. The Cardinals draft heavily in baseball’s hotbeds – California, Texas and the Southeast.
| Pos. |
# |
% |
| P |
24 |
51.1% |
| OF |
9 |
19.1% |
| SS |
5 |
10.6% |
| 2B |
2 |
4.3% |
| 1B |
2 |
4.3% |
| C |
2 |
4.3% |
| 3B |
2 |
4.3% |
I think this just quantifies what we already know and have come to expect. The Cardinals are going to take a lot of college players along with the occasional high schooler from the areas mentioned. They draft evenly between pitchers and position players, and certainly show a preference with up the middle players when it pertains to the infield.
In no particular order, here are some names that seem to fit the Cardinals’ M.O. found in BA’s Top 100 that could be possibly be available at #25, #46, #50 and even the second round are:
- Brett Eibner, OF/RHP, Arkansas
- Austin Wilson, OF, HS Calif.
- Christian Colon (big maybe), SS, Cal State Fullerton
- Yordy Cabrera, SS, HS FLA
- Kyle Parker, OF, Clemson
- Garin Cecchini, 3B, HS FLA
- Delino DeShields Jr., SS, GA HS
- Derek Dietrich, SS, Georgia Tech
- Todd Cunningham, of, Jacksonville State
- Rob Segedin, 3b, Tulane (sophomore)
- Brandon Workman, rhp, Texas
- Asher Wojciechowski, rhp, The Citadel
- Anthony Ranaudo, rhp, Louisiana State
- Chad Bettis, rhp, Texas Tech
- Seth Blair, rhp, Arizona State
- Jedd Gyorko, ss, West Virginia
- Barret Loux, rhp, Texas A
- Chance Ruffin, rhp, Texas
- Kyle Blair, rhp, San Diego
- Drew Smyly, lhp, Arkansas (sophomore)
- Karsten Whitson, rhp, Chipley (Fla.) HS (another big fat maybe)
- Leon Landry, of, Louisiana State
- Matt Lipka, ss, McKinney (Texas) HS
- LeVon Washington, of, Chipola (Fla.) JC
- Micah Gibbs, c, Louisiana State
- Mike Foltynewicz, rhp, Minooka (Ill.) Community HS
- Peter Tago, rhp, HS CAL
- Zach Lee, rhp, HS TEX
- Aaron Shipman, of, GA HS
- Tyler Holt, of, Florida State
- Matt Harvey, rhp, North Carolina
Brett Eibner is my cheese ball de jour. I think I like him better as a hitter than a pitcher, and that seems to be Eibner’s preference, but I wonder if they couldn’t talk him into some sort of Casey Kelly plan where he’d play the first half as a pitcher and the second half as a hitter.
My other cheese balls, depending on when they are available, are Harvey (I’ve come around thanks to reports of his improved mechanics, control and an increase in GB%), Austin Wilson, Loux, Parker, Smyly, Segedin, Holt, Ruffin, Wojciechowski, Bettis and Dietrich. I like Vitek and Wimmers, too, who aren’t on this list just because they’re from Ohio and the Cardinals haven’t drafted a player from Ohio early since Mike Ferris in 2004. I really wouldn’t take any of these players in the first round other than Wilson, Harvey, Wimmers, Vitek, Parker, Bettis and maybe Ruffin.
This entry was posted on Sunday, May 30th, 2010 at 5:13 pm and is filed under 2010 MLB Draft. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
|
Entries (RSS)
While Austin Wilson would be my dream choice, I’d put my money on it being a college pitcher in the first round. Hope I’m wrong, but I’ve got my faith in Mo.
Let me say that I am from arkansas and am a huge razorback fan and have seen both Smyly and Eibner play on a fairly regular basis.
As for Eibner I would be ecstatic if the cardinals picked him up. As a pitcher he throws a fastball that sits between 89-92 mph and touches 94, a solid average to above average slider that sits in the low eighties, and a decent cutter that he throws with some regularity. However, he struggles to maintain his velocity and control deep into games and I have never seen him throw a changeup so if he has one I haven’t seen it, so i think he will be a reliever at best in the majors. With that said I think his potential as a hitter is outstanding. He has speed comparable to that of Rasmus and is an outstanding centerfielder defensively. In my opinion he could be the kind of hitter that gives you around thirty or so homeruns with an average that should be between .270 and .300. I truly hope that we can pick him up because I think he would give us a real hitting prospect in the system that is somewhat lacking on high ceiling hitters.
For Smyly I think we might be able to pick him up a little bit later on in the draft. Maybe the third or fourth round, but if we waited that long he would probably not sign since he is just a sophomore. I haven’t read that much about him online, but from what I’ve seen of him he is a solid prospect that could project as a number two or three pitcher in the starting rotation. He has a solid fastball with good movement that sits 88-92 mph, an above average curve that is usually around 77 mph (it’s not a 12-6 but has good break), and a decent change that he rarely throws. But in my opinion his best qualities are probably his intangible qualities and stamina. He often throws well over 100 pitches in his starts and still manages to maintain velocity well, and his intangibles are impressive he just has a way of working his way through starts even when he doesn’t have his best stuff or is missing spots he just manages to get guys out and any time he is on the mound you know you have a chance to win. However I think he really needs another year in college to work out some control issues. He often manages to get guys out just by his pure stuff and gets them to strike out on high fastball that a big league hitter would turn on. So I personally think he needs a little more seasoning before he is ready for the draft. That said I would be really happy if the cards were to pick him and I really believe that he will have a solid major league career.
Man that 04 draft was bad.
Not a huge fan of Eibner. He’s got more of a future on the mound than in the field IMO, but his success is almost completely dependent on his change up becoming a very good pitch. He’s also got a couple of mechanical issues that need to be fixed. Still seems like a back of the rotation starter IMO.
Kolbrin Vitek is a guy that is really growing on me, and should he be available at 25 would present good value there. The kid can flat out hit, and he’s got the arm to be able to move around the field. Outfield or third base seems like where his future lies.
Greene, Kozma, Marmol, Vasquez, and Jackson are right swinging SSes. Eliminating these SSes, it can be seen when the Cards do not draft a pitcher or SS, they value players who swing left.
04: Ferris & Swackhamer (2 of 3)
05: Rasmus, Jones, Anderson (3 of 4)
06: Jay and Hamilton (2 of 3)
07: Descalso, Kyle Russell (2 of 2)
08: Wallace, Petersen (2 of 3)
09: Stock (1 of 2)
Taken together, 12 of 17 non-SS players swing left. As does Wagner Mateo and Barton the first round catcher in 2003.
If the Cards want a position player with their top pick, they could consider UVa’s OF Jarrett Parker. Parker did not do well in the Cape Cod League last summber, a bad thing for the Cards, but he has good dimensions, speed, and swings left.
Kyle Russell was a draft eligible sophmore who did not sign. Once burned, the Cards might bypass Smyly and Segedin.
I would add Justin O’Connor and Kellin Deglan to your list but otherwise it looks good to me. I’m not nearly as high on Kyle Parker as you are.
Count me in on the crowd that’s down on Kyle Parker’s swing.
There should be a good opportunity for the Cards’ brass to get a high upside arm, a more safe college righty, and a hitter with their first three picks and satisfy their model. I’m sort of liking some of the possible ways this draft could fall, and from there, I’ll just brace myself for the college righties and relievers, and be fine with it if we get some upside/projectible guys in the 1st/Supp.
I see the Cardinals going with mostly fast moving college players to restock the system, much like they did in 2005-2008 (with a few exceptions). They had a weak system and it gave them depth doing this. Since they’ve traded much of what they had (and promoted a few), they’re back in rebuilding mode.
I could see them taking Hahn, Harvey, or Paxton with their first pick; I don’t know if Harvey will be there though. For pick #46, I could see Gary Brown, Asher Wojciechowski, or Barret Loux as possiblities; I would love for Vitek to be there, but don’t think it will happen. For the #50 pick, I could see one of the previous 3, along with Hunter Morris, Austin Wates, Seth Blair, or Jarrett Parker.
I see these guys as reaches, but still possiblities: Jedd Gyorko, Kyle Parker, Victor Sanchez, Todd Cunningham, Bryan Morgado, Chad Bettis.
@Eugene Tierney: I’m in agreement with a lot of what you said here except the only name that doesn’t make sense to me is Gary Brown. He has a 3.9% walk rate, and the Cardinals value OBP too much to justify picking him that high. Blair, Louix, Bettis and Cunningham definitely seem like their cup of tea.
It’s part gut feeling, part fact based about Brown. I’ve been tracking value boards and mock drafts and he ranks around 45-50. I could be completely off on that pick though. I think they’ll go pitchers and/or middle infielders.
@Eugene Tierney:
I pretty much disagree with you as much as people think that the system is thin MO’s on record saying he doesn’t agree with the experts and believes we have good depth in our system. WHat we don’ t have are potential impact players. Why would we get fast moving players when inevitably they will get clocked up in our system at AA or AAA. We already have outfielders and relievers that are blocked because we have alot of depth. We have MAYBE 1 outfield spot that will open up in 2 years and 2 people in the system that could very well take that over. I do agree that one of the first 3 pics will be a college pitcher but I think it will be a high upside pitcher like Harvey, Hahn or Workman. Just see no way they draft fast rising players when very few of our position players spots are opening up in the next few years.
Also Brown makes no sense what so ever unless you think Rasmus will bust. Brown will be a fast riser in the system. We have a left fielder for 7 years. Rasmus for quite a few and there is no way we have Brown a light hitting, fast, weak armed player playing right a spot that is supposed to drive in runs. Only way we get Brown is if we think we can convert him to 2b. If we pick Brown over some of the other people available at 46 or 50 I will really question our organizations judgement.
I think they’ll be in on fast moving players to have trade chips, like they had last season. Most teams won’t take the Shane Robinsons and P.J. Walters we have in our system. Look at what we traded last year alone – Wallace, Perez, Todd, Mortensen, and Peterson. We don’t have chips like the first 4 right now, outside of Sanchez and Miller, possibly Lance Lynn.
Even if we don’t take guys for trade chips, we’ll need a RF, 2B, and SS soon, along with re-filling the rotation and bullpen every few years. There really aren’t too many regular players in our system.