Mock drafts are all the rage these days, so I figure I’ll try my hand at it. Thankfully, I have the benefit of some of the latest rumors around the interwebs to assist me in my foolishness.
| # | Team | Pick |
| 1 | Nationals | Bryce Harper |
| 2 | Pirates | Jameson Tallion |
| 3 | Orioles | Manny Machado |
| 4 | Royals | Yasmani Grandal |
| 5 | Indians | Drew Pomeranz |
| 6 | D’Backs | Chris Sale |
| 7 | Mets | Matt Harvey |
| 8 | Astros | Delino DeShields Jr. |
| 9 | Padres | Michael Choice |
| 10 | A’s | Josh Sale |
| 11 | Blue Jays | Christian Colon |
| 12 | Reds | Zack Cox |
| 13 | White Sox | Asher Wojciechowski |
| 14 | Brewers | Nick Castellanos |
| 15 | Rangers | Mike Kvasnicka |
| 16 | Cubs | Justin O’Conner |
| 17 | Rays | Deck McGuire |
| 18 | Angels | Dylan Covey |
| 19 | Astros | Bryce Brentz |
| 20 | Red Sox | Anthony Ranaudo |
| 21 | Twins | Alex Wimmers |
| 22 | Rangers | Brandon Workman |
| 23 | Marlins | Barret Loux |
| 24 | Giants | Yordy Cabrera |
| 25 | Cardinals | Austin Wilson |
I have a hunch that the Astros really, really want DeShields Jr. and will not risk letting him get by them at #8, as my shocker of the first round.
Moving on to the Cardinals – In Matthew Leach’s draft preview he stated that the Cardinals might be inclined to take a signability risk this year, well, hence Austin Wilson. No one seems to feel sure if he’s signable or if he pulls a Gerrit Cole and goes to college regardless of how much money is thrown in his direction. The latest rumor I’ve seen has him leaning towards signing, so maybe they’ll take a shot at him.
If the Cardinals are just totally uncomfortable with the situation with Wilson, they could always go for Kolbrin Vitek, Stetson Allie, Kaleb Cowart or Brett Eibner. Vitek is the lowest ceiling, highest floor of the four. Cowart and Allie are the exact opposite; high risk, high reward and Eibner is a wild card because he might actually be a better pitching prospect than a hitting prospect, but he doesn’t want to pitch professionally. For what it’s worth, yesterday against Grambling he went 4-5 with 3 HR and a double. Yeah, it was just Grambling, I know.
I do know this: I have no freaking clue and I need to find something else to think about this weekend.
Entries (RSS)
Austin wilson seems like he’s worth the risk
I’m not sure they’ll go for a guy that far over slot in Wilson. It will take north of 3 million to sign him, I doubt they’ll go that route personally. AJ Cole is an arm I like, and Allie has a lot of projection with his arm strength.
Eibner has the feel of a guy with a chance to be a star as a hitter, while merely an average major leaguer as a pitcher. He probably has a better chance to reach that ceiling as a pitcher, but I’d play him in the OF and see if he can develop that power (which is probably at least 60 power now, with a chance to be 65-70 if everything clicks).
I posted this in the thread below, but I think Eibner has a shot to be an All-Star OF. He has huge power and yesterday I saw him score from second after tagging up on a fly to deep center. I worry about him in the first round because I’m not sure if he will hit for a great average. I hope we get Wilson in the first and by some grace or God, Eibner falls to us at #46..
If they would like toolsy OF’er, I would imagine we have guys like Aaron Shipman, Jarrett Parker, Ryan LaMarre, Eibner, Gauntlett Eldemire, Reggie Golden, Joe Pederson etc. on our radar.
With the emphasis they’ve put on the Cape in the past, a selection of Todd Cunningham in the supplemental round, and a look at Chris Bisson in the 2-3 range wouldn’t surprise me either.
Eibner probably isn’t going to be there at 25, I wouldn’t hold out hope for him at 46. We’ll probably take a guy seen as an overdraft at one of the spots in the supplemental round, and a toolsy, athletic OF’er with either our first or a supp. pick.
Reading between the lines of Luhnow, we want to grab a couple of athletic players at the top, and then go pitcher, pitcher, pitcher for a while.
I’ll be in Vegas for the draft, sitting at the sports book watching and hoping for something exciting, while my wife spends my money at Anthropology.
personally, I’d love to see Wilson picked. If he is able to develop like many feel he can, I’d love to see him surrounded by Holliday and Pujols in 4 or 5 years. The kid could be a star and actually help keep Holliday and Pujols’ numbers up in the later parts of their contracts (when Pujols is extended). A 2-5 of Holliday, Wilson, Pujols, and Rasmus could be great in 2015… hey, I’m a dreamer.
The Cards could be willing to choose and bonus Wilson, if willing to turn pro. However, if Wilson is willing to turn pro, some other team will take him earlier.
The elite talents with the most negotiating leverage tend to be high schoolers (except for pinnacle college players like Strasburg, Prior, Price, Weiters, etc.). Its not because HS talents are intrinsically better, its just they can go to college for 3 years. They have more leverage. Cowart is a nice talent, but can go to Georgia Tech. This makes him expensive in terms of bonus.
Stetson Allie has improved this May. But he will want a lot of money, maybe more than he is worth. The Cards may want to save bonus money for the international market, where money rules.
The Cards are most likely to select one of three kinds of guy. 1) the best college starting pitcher prospect available at 25, for slot. 2) the best position player available at 25, such as either Parker or Vitek, for slot. 3) a nice high school pitching prospect forecast to be selected a little later, like Tago or Jenkins, for slot.
Disagree with all 3. Our system is pretty stacked with pitching. I see us taking Vitek if he is available neither Parker though. Why would we sign a high schooler who who is forecasted to be picked after 25 at 25 and and sign him for 25 slot money? Thats paying too much for someone who is projected lower. I think this year we are going for tools and BPA iwth maybe 1 college starter in the first 5 rounds.
@Andrew: I would disagree and say our system is not stocked at any position. We really need to hit on the extra picks because we need help everywhere.
The questions I would have is what is the overall draft budget going to be and if we draft Wilson is it going to be significantly increased? If in drafting Wilson the budget isn’t going to be increased by a large margin then I pass on Wilson. I’d rather spread the money out over a few prospects rather than pinning all my hopes on Wilson developing better pitch recognition. If DeWitt gives the OK to spend more to take Wilson then I do it.
I’ve heard the Jays are high on Wilson and willing to spend this year so it may be a moot question.
@Andrew: We did it with Rasmus in 05 and with Kozma in 07, dipping down to grab a supplemental round talent in the first round. They get more bonus money than they are expecting and sign for slot. The signing goes smoothely. We dipped even further when we selected Ottavino in 2006. Please do not be shocked if the Cards do it for the 4th time within 6 years.
Rasmus was rated as a 1st round prospect in 2005.
I’ve got a gut feeling that the Padres will take Zack Cox; I’ve seen the Padres scouts a TON at Arkansas games.
Just don’t think it will happen based on what Moz has said about the draft and what they are looking for.
@CraigK:
Supposedly the Padres are down to Choice and Vitek assuming at least one of them is there for their pick.
@Andrew:
I have to agree. I’ve got this feeling that we are going to go back to the classic high floor, low ceiling college pitcher that was made so infamous under the Walt Jocketty regime.
UncleBuck had a thoughtful mock draft for the cards over at Sickels’s site today. Note that he took Parker as a toolsy OF in the supplemental round, and that the bonus could be spread (first I knew of this) b/c the guy is a two-sport player. Seems like a smart way to stay budget-conscious in the draft while still not overreaching to keep costs low.
Do the two supplemental round picks get returned to us if we don’t sign them this year?
erik, your mock doesn’t look to far off early IMO. I still think the Mets end up taking Mike Kvasnicka, but Matt Harvey has been gaining some steam the last couple of days for sure. Still think the Athletics pick is down to two players, Justin O’Conner and Dylan Covey O’Conner is the way that some people inside the business think the A’s are leaning, but Covey just won’t go away. The White Sox love Bryce Brentz, and I’d be very surprised to see them not take him. From what I’ve heard, the Brewers have zeroed in on prep arm Jesse Biddle. Still like Karsten Whitson to the Cubs, Tim Wilken has been awful at hiding his hand and he’s been all over Whitson.
@Karmaloop: What about what he’s said makes you think that? Mo said last year that the depth in the system isn’t as bad as people say it is as many of the teams have been very successful. Now that we have filled our system sufficently with players they can focus more on high end talent and high risk high reward guys. Last year they did this with the first 4 picks. Miller, Stock, Kelly and Bittle. This year he said that the system is admittedly low on athletic toolsy players and left handed pitching. What part of that makes you think they are going back to low ceiling/high floor type guys? if Mo even a decent GM he knows that in order to sign our core guys long term we need impact cost controlled players to complement them not college pitchers who may rise fast but languish in AAA cause they are blocked. The Cardinals have a history of being willing to pay special players if one falls to them. I think that happens this year. We need impact bats in our system after losing Mateo. I think the FO knows it.
@Andrew:
What are this year’s draft strengths and weaknesses? It’s strengths are in the right handed college pitchers, and it lacks the high impact players. Take out Harper, Tailon, and Machado and you’ve got arguably the weakest draft ever. Why risk taking a player that has huge bust potential when you can add to your weakened farm system.
What would you put the odds of a high impact player that doesn’t have huge bust potential falling to them? Especially when most of them are projected to go ahead of them (Allie, Cowart, Cabrera, Castellanos, etc.).
The drafts strengths don’t dictate our GM’s strategy IMO. We don’t need farm depth, all 4 of our full season teams are above 500. 2 are challenging for playoff spots. Granted we won’t get a huge star at 25 in the ilk of the first 3 you mentioned. I don’t say we take a huge risk at 25 but instead take the BPA which at that point won’t be a college pitcher. Just so we are on the same page, when you say you think we go back to low ceiling/high floor guy in the first round. Who do you think we take? Loux, Reed, Wojosomething? The typical player you mention is barely rated in the top 50 this year. No reason to take someone who projects to be a 1S or 2nd round pick at 25 just because he’s safe. We need BPA be it Harvey, Brentz, O’Conner or Allie all of which differnet mocks have had us taking. I think its better to bust with a Cole or Caberra than hit with a guy who gets clogged up in our system.
The drafts strengths this year are high risk projectional pitchers. When a draft is as week as this one is the perfect time to take BPA no matter the position. I think they take BPA at 25, toolsy talent at 46 or 50 with the other pick taking a risk with someone that may not sign. A recent trend is going after guys who have at one time been first round talent but have fallen because of injuries.
@UncleBuck44: Colby was rated 30th pre-draft in 05. Tyler Greene is a stronger example, rated 40th.
I watched Loux’s game the other day and I couldn’t help but be reminded of Brad Penny with his sow, methodical motion and then explodes to the plate. Smilar leg kick and drive. Loux isn’t as big as Penny, and uses his slurve instead of the split finger for swings and misses, but the look was there. Both also use a sinking fastball to get groundballs. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the fastball Penny has, and has the upside more of a Lance Lynn (another decent comp for Loux) than a Brad Penny.
I’d take Workman and Wojch over Loux honestly if we went the college righty route and had the choice of the three…
Watching tape of Wilson, a name comes to mind—Juan Encarnacion. There is alot of motion in his approach. I say no
@Andrew: I’m not sure how you can say it is better to bust on some high ceiling prospect than have a low ceiling guy make it. What the organization is trying to do is get a return on their investment in a player. If the player busts then the investment was a waste of money.
@rydeshelby: Rasmus was rated 1st round that year and was actually going to be picked by FLA at 29 if we didn’t pick him at 28. We had a deal with Greene in place for 28th pick slot and ended up giving him that money at 30 b/c we didn’t want to take the risk of Rasmus not making it to 30 (where they wanted to pick him). I might be wrong on the exact numbers of the picks but you get the idea. I am pretty sure there is an article somewhere backing all this up.
@nmstar:
What I mean is this, Lets say we draft an pretty good pitcher in round 1. He’s the type of college pitcher that we love to hate. He’s a fast riser and moves through the system. Unfortunately when he reaches the bigs in 2 years we have a rotation of Carp, Waino, Garcia, Ottavino and Lynn with Hooker and Miller on their heels. At this point we have a very average pitcher stuck in AAA doing no one any good. He’s living up to his potential but its not good enough to pitch for us. At least with someone like AJ Cole or Tago there is an impact to effect the big league team even if it is by trade. Tell me this would Clayton Mortenson or Shane Peterson ever have even had a chance in STL?
@Andrew: if aaron miles and randy winn do, anyone does … blargh!!
I read one mock draft that had the Cards taking LHP James Paxton..he played for UK last year and was drafted but didnt sign. then had issues with the NCAA so he went independent. MLB.com has a good evaluation of him.
Zack Cox seems to be falling hard due to demands. Have to wonder if the Cardinals would even entertain the idea of him should he fall to 25.
@Gatekeeper: Please no. His numbers in the SEC were underwhelming and the independent route has not treated pitchers well afterwards (performance wise).
Paxton is the definition of a “meh” pick. I’d take Reggie Golden or Dale Carey before taking him. Tago is a guy with a ton of helium, and I’d be fine with him as well. All would be considered “over drafts” so they should sign for slot money, but offer upside with plus tools.
It does seem like from all the quotes that we’re going to seriously underwhelm the draft at the top, but there are a lot of athletic, toolsy OF’ers this year, and if that’s an area of focus according to Luhnow, at least bet on the upside and take a kid like that over a guy like a Paxton.
I think our top 3 could play ou ta few different ways depending on who we take at 25. Luhnow said there are about 6-7 players who they think will be available about 25 that they are deciding on. Obviously someone always drops and they will take that person into consideration.
My choices at 25 are…Wilson, Harvey, Cole, Vitnek, Brentz
46 and 50- Gyroko, Golden, Cabrera, Goodrum, Loux, Cecchini, Solis
I think we may take a shot at shot at Paxton or Biddle if they are there at 46.
First round talent Robert Aviles has a partial ligament tear in high right elbow. Seems like it will probably require surgery. May be best for him to sign with who drafts him and then immediately get TJ surgery. This seems to be the type of situation where the Cardinals are hoping to strike it big with a risk. We could probably draft him in rounds 5-10 and sign him for 3rd round money. I don’ot know about you but I would rather be rehabbing with a professional team and medical staff than at Miami.
Well its Draft day! Cant wait to see who is picked..too bad it could be 3 years or more before we get to maybe see him with the big club
I think it’s time for FR followers to chime in with their predictions for picks 25, 46 and 50.
Here’s mine:
1) Sammy Solis
2) Kyle Parker
3) Reggie Golden
@Andrew:
Biddle is looking like he’ll probably in the first, but he could be a name to look out for. The draft is such a fluid event, no other draft has guys come out of nowhere (to the Internet GM’s) than the MLB draft. I’d expect to hear a few names you weren’t expecting in the first round, which could be a good thing as a few names fall to us in the supp we weren’t expecting.
Should be fun to watch unfold. I’m preparing myself to at least see the first three picks play out before upset/disappointed etc.
@Andrew:
Aviles is committed to Florida (Gainesville), but I get your point. He’d most likely do the surgery there and rehab at their facility. Personally, I hope Aviles signs! =)
25-High school player—pitcher/hitter:
Personally, not a fan of Austin Wilson. I would love to see Josh Sale fall here. Otherwise, someone like AJ Cole or Stetson Allie would be my choice.
46-James Paxton
50-Jedd Gyorko
Intriguing players for me at each pick. Its a solid mix of upside, projectable college pitchers and speed/tool type guys.
#25 – Allie, Harvey, Castellanos, Covey, Cole, Cabrera, Ranaudo, Brentz, Cowart and Eibner (To me Wilson comes with too much risk unless the Cards are almost certain that he is leaning toward signing now – also not a fan of Vitek in the 1st)
#46/#50 – Paxton, Solis, S. Blair, Golden, Tago, Gausman, T. Jenkins, J. Parker, Smelter, Dyson, Foltynewicz, Biddle and Littlewood
One thing is for sure in my mind…In the first 3 Rds we will still have more collegiate picks than HS even though the Cards are saying they will give a solid mix of tools, upside and projectability picks. It will still lean a little more on projectability picks IMO. But 1-2 higher upside players will be enough to let me know we are serious about getting star type potential guys to go along with our middle of the rotation and bullpen collegiate guys. I am pretty freakin excited as I am a draft nerd. Tonight will be no answering calls, semi-ignoring my wife and no answering the door!
@JC:
Not that I necesarily want Wilson at 25…I just hope the Cards don’t let signability stop them from grabbing the top talent (be it Wilson or someone else). The 1st round choice is protected in that we get one next year right? So, let’s swing for the fences (literally?) with that pick and do the safety dance in the sandwich round (ie—signable collegiates)
@PJ: Agreed. I want us to swing for the fences in the 1st Rd for the right player. There are a number of high upside players that “MIGHT” be available with our pick. I am really high on Castellanos (who many not drop to us) but have heard ZERO on us being linked to him in any capacity.
@PJ: The first three rounds are protected if they don’t sign.