Cardinals pick Seth Blair, Tyrell Jenkins
Posted on June 7th, 2010 by erik in 2010 MLB Draft, tags: seth blair, tyrell jenkinsSorry for the delayed reaction. I have Microsoft Security Essentials, and occasionally it decides it needs to update without my consent. I had a bazillion things running in the background, and it caused my computer to grind down to a halt.
Anyway, in my opinion this has been a great night for Jeff Luhnow and company. After getting the best pure hitter in the draft, the Cardinals were able to draft two very good arms with some upside in Blair and Jenkins.
Blair was a player I thought the Cardinals might be interested in. He had a pretty good year at Arizona State, and he gets his fair share of groundballs.
Law on Blair:
Arizona State right-hander Seth Blair came out of the chute throwing bullets this spring, reportedly touching 98 in his first outing of the spring, but he has settled in since then as a 90-94 guy who might flash a 95 or 96 once or twice a game.
He’ll throw the pitch to both sides of the plate, and pairs it with a solid-average slider at 78-84 mph with good tilt. He’ll show a change, curve, and even splitter, although only the change projects as a potential weapon in pro ball. He throws from a 3/4 slot and his hand travels a long way from separation to release, with his pitching elbow going just above his shoulder before he pronates it.
He’s not a big, physical kid, and there will probably be teams that view him as a reliever in the long term, but he has the repertoire to start and should get that opportunity first.
Tyrell Jenkins was ranked 23rd overall by Law, so getting him at 50 is a great value pick, and he’s considered to be very signable in spite of being recruited by Baylor as a QB. This pick was the real shocker to me, in a good way. I think I’d rather have him than Stetson Allie.
Law on Jenkins:
A three-sport athlete, Jenkins is committed to Baylor to pitch and play quarterback (albeit likely as a backup behind Robert Griffin for a year), but his pro future is now as a right-handed pitcher.
He’s very crude, but has arm strength and is, of course, a tremendous athlete, so there’s great raw material here. Jenkins has hit 96 several times this spring but will pitch around 89-92, although with some delivery cleanup he should be working at 92-94 or better; when he gets on top of the pitch he gets excellent downhill plane. He’ll show a low-70s curveball and a slider around 80. His delivery is unrefined; his stride length and landing vary from pitch to pitch and he separates his hands very low, but his arm is loose and he keeps his elbow down.Taking Jenkins is a bet on athleticism and velocity, but because his arm works well he’s well worth that gamble.
Baseball America:
Jenkins may be the most athletic pitcher in the draft. Baylor’s top quarterback recruit, he also lettered in basketball and ran a 49-second quarter-mile in a relay race this spring—without any training. The next day, he was throwing 92-93 mph fastball in the seventh inning. Jenkins has a loose, quick, whippy arm that can deliver fastballs up to 95 mph. There’s a lot of projection remaining in his 6-foot-4, 180-pound frame, and lots of room for improvement with his secondary pitches. He can spin a curveball and also throws a slider and changeup. He should develop more consistency once he focuses on baseball and does a better job of repeating his delivery. He’s raw but has tremendous upside, making him a perfect fit in the sandwich round for teams with multiple picks.
I like this pick a lot better than the Dodgers’ pick of Zach Lee.
These are two very hard throwing righties with some upside. A very nice first night of the draft and my cheeseball Eibner is still on the board. For that matter, so is Workman, Allie and James Paxton.
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So… now we acquired Seth Blair and Mark Derosa for Perez and Todd. Softens the blow a bit eh?
…and Austin Wilson! If he is still availible when we pick in the 2nd and the Cardinals don’t take him then, I will be very upset..
Luhnow said that the delay at 50 was because of multiple options…..wonder if we will found out who those options were? Surely not before the end of the draft as we don’t want to tip our hand. Still hoping Ceccihini falls to our next pick. Also want Wilson but maybe he can just go to college still be toolsy but not so accomplished so we can draft him in a few years.
I like the picks–especially Jenkins. Now make me really happy and draft Garin Cecchini tomorrow!
from an SI article by John Manuel … “Baylor quarterback recruit Tyrell Jenkins has had late helium, perhaps rising into first-round consideration thanks to a 95-mph fastball.”
Before the draft, I had wondered if the Cards might even be bold and select Jenkins in round 1. He is from Texas, which we now scout closely. For a team whose most accomplished pitcher was Bob Gibson, its nice to select a powered armed African American pitcher.
Can’t wait to see both of these guys wearing the birds on the bat. It seems like the early returns are more favorable than in years past. Jenkins in particular is someone the Cards would never have taken a flier on four or five years ago. Here’s hoping.
Great start…should get a solid player at 75 with a whole group of talent available. I want Eibner or Hahn
Time for an upside bat at 75 unless someone like Workman, Cole or Allie are still there. With Cox no need to draft Gyokro. Try Cecchini, Wilson, Russ Golden, Austin Wates. Eibner has a ton of power and tools to be a hitter maybe draft him as a hitter.
>>>”If he is still availible when we pick in the 2nd and the Cardinals don’t take him then, I will be very upset..”
If he’s available in the 2nd, then it’s probably guaranteed that Austin isn’t signing with anybody regardless of money and teams know that. It’ll be a waste of a pick.
Heres the thing, there has been some late talk that Wilson’s parents have reassured teams that he can in fact be signed for the right price. They think they were too strong about him goign to college in the last month and are now afraid they scared alot of teams off and they may not get drafted at all. I wouldn’t be suprised if his parents wree calling some teams tomorrow letting them know he could sign for the right price.
The “right price” is the key. After losing first round money, I don’t think Wilson will get the deal he and his parents remotely want, because I don’t think teams are willing to give above-slot first round money to a second round pick. He’ll be negotiating from a position of weakness. The fact that teams stayed away through the first round and the supplemental rounds speaks volumes.
I actually believe that the reason the 50 pick was delayed was we had Wilson on the phone wanting to know if he planned on signing or going to college. Luhnow said that the delay was because they were inquiring into the signibility of a player. Notice he didn’t say they were looking into the signability of Jenkins. The only player we could have taken at 50 that may not want to sign no matter what is Wilson. We may have ahd him on the phone getting a yes or no answer about if he planned to sign. I wish we would have/ will get him but doesn’t seem likely. That said I’m very happy with Jenkins. Reminds me of a young Gooden.
I’m loving Cox at 25, not sure how he fits in long-term but those things have a tendency to work themselves out and I didn’t think there was any way he’d fall that far. Allie would have been my only preference to him but if they were going to take him they had two more shots at it. Too much money, I guess.
That said, I think the team that got the best value for their draft position was the Red Sox, nabbing Brentz and Ranaudo in the supplemental after a steady pick in Vitek at 20. You can make an argument for Cards 2nd, though, and that’s very encouraging.
Still hoping the Cards can get Stetson Allie
I actually played with Seth on a fall ball team when I was a senior in High School. There was one game I had to warm him up for some reason, we were probably short a catcher ( I am a lefty). I can still remember being scared to catch his ball. It exploded out of his hand and his fastball had good movement. I got even more nervous when he called for the splitty as that was the hardest ball ive ever had to try and catch in my life. He was actually kind of hittable in that league, and he hit quite a few batters as well.
A few years later I was keeping book for one of his high school games and he threw a no hitter. When he did, there was really no reaction from him or his team mates. I am sure it was not the first time he had done that.
On a side note, he was one of the cockiest kids I have ever played with or against. He definitely has some arrogance about him. I hope being at ASU humbled him up a little bit since he was no longer to dominate Illinois High School kids. However, he took the game very seriously and is a very hard worker. I will be pulling very extra hard for him to make it to STL someday just for the fact that I have played with him.
I doubt it happens, but what a draft we would have with Zack Cox and Austin WIlson! That would immediately inject some exciting offensive prospects into a system that needs them.
Another guy I like is Alabama’s SS Josh Rutledge. Could stick at short and has some pop.
does cox have more power than matthew carpenter? because everything i have read on cox makes it seem like we just drafted carpenter 2.0
The overall Day 1 was a complete success IMO. But with that said we have 2 guys that will be kind of tough to sign in Cox and Jenkins. I am not saying they won’t sign but merely that it will be overslot for both and maybe a decent amount of overslot. So I am not sure I would get too brainwashed that there is a chance we go for the home run with Wilson. We might go overslot a few more times…but it will be a slight overslot and then starting to fill the needs of the system on guys that will be fringe MLB guys at best. With that said there are a ton of guys still available and I am sure plenty of them will sign for somewhere near slot (1-1.5X Slot that is). Here is a good list of guys that I like alot for our next few rounds. There are others but this should be a good list to work from:
Stetson Allie, RHP, St. Edward HS (OH)
Brandon Workman, RHP, Texas
Brett Eibner, RHP/OF, Arkansas
A.J. Cole, RHP, Oviedo HS (FL)
Austin Wilson, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA) (NOT HAPPENIN)
Jesse Hahn, RHP, Virginia Tech
Chad Bettis, RHP, Texas Tech
Yordy Cabrera, SS, Lakeland HS (FL)
James Paxton, LHP, Grand Prairie AirHogs (TX)
Jedd Gyorko, SS, West Virginia (Doesn’t make as much sense with the Cox pick)
Ryan LaMarre, OF, Michigan
Austin Wates, OF, Virginia Tech
Dan Klein, RHP, UCLA
Reggie Golden, OF, Wetumpka HS (AL)
Jarrett Parker, OF, Virginia
Sammy Solis, LHP, San Diego
Ryne Stanek, RHP, Blue Valley HS (KS)
Kevin Gausman, RHP, Grandview HS (CO)
Jacob Petricka, RHP, Indiana State
Hunter Morris, 1B, Auburn
Micah Gibbs, C, LSU
A.J. Vanegas, RHP, Redwood Christian HS (CA)
Derek Dietrich, SS, Georgia Tech
Griffin Murphy, LHP, Redlands East Valley HS (CA)
Garin Cecchini, SS, Barbe HS (LA)
Todd Cunningham, OF, Jacksonville State
Kyle Blair, RHP, San Diego
Tony Wolters, SS, Rancho Buena Vista HS (CA)
DeAndre Smelter, RHP, Tattnall Square Academy (GA)
Addison Reed, RHP, San Diego State
LeVon Washington, OF, Chipola JC (FL)
Justin Grimm, RHP, Georgia
Aaron Shipman, OF, Brooks County HS (GA)
Scott Frazier, RHP, Upland HS (CA)
Leon Landry, OF, LSU
Sam Dyson, RHP, South Carolina
Mel Rojas Jr., OF, Wabash Valley JC (IL)
Rob Rasmussen, LHP, UCLA
Drew Cisco, RHP, Wando HS (SC)
Marcus Littlewood, SS, Pineview HS (UT)
@VolsnCards5: Cox is projected to have medium power which is closer to Wallace than Carpenter. But he will be a better defender than Wallace at 3rd.
@VolsnCards–It sounds like Cox may move to second–apparently, he’s already started playing there a bit and his defense supposedly improved. He’s got a plus arm that Carpenter doesn’t (he used to be a pitcher), he hits left (thou he throws right), is probably a better developed hitter (based on his scouting reports and college performance), and he’s a bit younger (Carpenter is 24).
@JC:
Although I know you are absolutely right (ie—no way we are drafting Allie or Wilson at this point), I can dream can’t I?
Sammy Solis might make some sense. Levon Washington, Jarrett PArker, Paxton or Eibner.
Of those, I think Paxton would be a splash.
@VolsnCards5: Scouts have said the strength is there, but Cox was a bit too pull-happy his freshman year (actually hit 13 HR’s last year) and only hit .266. So he leveled out his swing, hit .344 in the Cod, and .420+ this year in the very tough SEC. I would imagine he’ll add some loft and power as he physically matures. If he doesn’t, I’ll be just fine with a high-average, medium power guy at 3B. Carpenter is a nice player, but he’s no match for Cox. . .scouts have said he has the shortest, quickest swing they’ve seen in years. I’ll take their word for it.
I don’t have ESPN Insider, but does Keith Law have the Cardinals on his list of draft winners so far? I would hope so.
Per Keith Law:
MLB draft first-day winners and losers
Red Sox, Cardinals, Angels shine; Cubs, Dodgers and Yankees confuse
I would say the Cards are about #3 among winners, after the Sox (Brentz, Vitek, Raunado) and Rays (Sale and OConnor!)
@Austin: Dunno how Law can’t say that the Astros didn’t screw the pooch today. Maybe they were even worse than “confuse”; downright awful. They basically took a couple of marginal top-100 guys in the top 20, and then a slightly better pick in the supplemental. For a team so short on quality on the farm to miss out on guys like Cox, Allie, Brentz etc who might’ve made a ton of sense for them is baffling. So is cheaping out on a draft with 3 top-35 picks whilst paying Carlos Lee $100m+ to be mediocre.
Going back in Cardinal history, Cox reminds me of Ken Oberkfell. Hit left, throws right, medium stature, line drive hitter. He came up as a 2B and later moved to 3B. At his best, Oberkfell was a 3 WAR player with gap power.
Cardinals are clearly one of the winners after Day 1.
Jenkins has got a bunch of potential. Good fastball with good command. Offspeed stuff hasn’t quite developed yet, and now that he can focus solely on baseball it should come.
Still a bunch of good prospects left on the board. I feel like someone will take Austin Wilson just in case he decides he does want to sign.
@Felonius_Monk:
I didn’t go into the article (no insider), simply checked out the headline. However, I agree with you wholeheartedly.
http://www.hendersondailynews.com/articles/2010/06/09/sports/tuesports1.txt
Good article on Jenkins, seem’s to really want to sign. I think it’s almost a lock he signs.
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