The news of the day: No one seems to know what the heck is going on.
Keith Law speculates in his final mock that the Cardinals pick will be San Diego lefty Sammy Solis in his latest mock and says the Cardinals are NOT in on Stetson Allie, but maybe AJ Cole. I don’t disagree with Solis being a possible pick for the Cardinals, but not in the first round. Hummel said the Cardinals are looking for lefty pitching, power and speed, and this is what Keith is basing his reasoning on.
Jim Callis’ pick for the Cardinals is Christian Colon, although he speculates they could take any player falling in the draft because of bonus demands, risk, etc. That includes Grandal, who was rumored to have a pre-draft deal with the Royals. Turns out that rumor wasn’t true, although the Royals still are on Grandal.
Happy draft day, everyone. See you all tonight.
Entries (RSS)
Am I missing something or has Jesse Hahn slipped a bit?
Could we get lucky and snag him at 46?
I’m hoping either Paxton or Solis are available at the Card’s second pick. And I would move Paxton quickly as a reliever.
I just don’t see Solis going in the 1st Rd. I would be extremely pleased with Allie or Cole but I agree that if a guy we rate very highly falls to us we will snag him up and pay (within reason like Miller last year). I am not too high on Colon for us since to me he is a more advanced Kozma IMO. I would rather take a riskier pitcher (collegiate or HS) over Colon. I have heard from more than one expert that says after the Top 3 players it is a crap shoot for the next 40-50 players as the talent level is very similiar. So it will depend mostly on who the Cards have high on their board vs other teams. I am excited that is for sure!
How about Bryan Harper in a later round?
Heck, maybe that would increase the Cards chances of signing 2016 free agent to be Bryce Harper (his bro)….
(This is sarcasm…to an extent ;)
@PJ:
He has definitely slipped. BA has at #50 in their final rankings. In fact, I’d love to get their players for our picks at 25, 46, 50 in AJ Cole, Gerrin Cecchini, Jessie Hahn. Gives us the power, the college righty, the upside arm.
All that we would need from there would be speed (which we’ve heard there is a ton of speed in this draft), and a lefty pitcher. We’ve heard the lefty pitcher thing for a long time now, so that doesn’t mean we’ll necessarily take one highly. we could snag a Rasmussen in the 2nd if we wanted to ensure we get one, and then grab some college righty’s (like a Seth Blair if he fell type), or a Jacob Thompson in the 4th area, and then grab some speed in that 5-7 range where it looks like we can get value.
Should be interesting…
@JC:
Agreed on Colon, I told a friend of mine this morning that Colon was a more advanced Kozma. I’m not entirely sold he’ll stick at SS either.
I’m not really sure why speed is apparently a cards’ priority in this draft. It seems to me actually have two or three players in the minors with decent wheels and, outside of centre fielders, it’s hardly a key tool (or one that’s particularly projectable) except for slappy contact hitting guys.
Likewise lefty pitching – it’s nice to have it but we shouldn’t take a lesser talent just because they happen to throw from the sinister side. I’m not aware of any evidence suggesting left-handed pitching prospects have any advantage over their righty counterparts (other than maybe being able to move into a specialist role if they flame out as a starter which, realistically, we’re hoping not to have to plan on happening to our early round guys).
The strategy should be the same as every year, at least in a relatively depleted system. Take the absolute best player available.
I am surprised that Rasmussen is not more highly regarded (not to say a 2nd/3rd round grade isn’t high…). A college lefty with 4 pitch mix—sometimes I think scouts are too enamored with size (does size matter? ;))
@Vision: That would a great day one!
Frankie Piliere has the Cardinals taking RHP Matt Harvey in his latest mock draft.
I am going to go out on a limb and say that the Nationals should not draft Harper.
-Young catchers have a high burn-out rate. So you almost immediatley need to move him to right to protect him.
-The contract structure is up in the air. He could demand a pro-contract, which for a player with his question marks is crazy.
Austin Wilson isn’t even a 1st rounder in Callis’s mock…presumably due to signing concerns…if he is there at 25, we have to take him…there have been plenty of rumors that say he is leaning towards signing…he’s got power, one of our “needs” and has solid average speed…come on Mo, do it!
@BigJawnMize: The latest buzz on Harper is the Nats would be moving Harper from behind the plate immediately. This would probably bump his arrival date by a year and save the wear and tear on his body. But the strange thing is he has more leverage and value in the draft as a catcher so not sure why this is openly discussed…guess he figures to get his $$$ regardless since he already has quite a bit of leverage
@VolsnCards5
I’m with you 100%. If Wilson is there at #25 and the Cardinals don’t take him, I’m going to flip. Lunhow stressed how important it is to have a big-time power hitter in the minors, and also said that they are very difficult to come by. I just can’t see how they would pass on Austin Wilson if he is still availible at #25 when it’s obvious our farm system is completely void of a huge power hitter, and Wilson could certainly remedy that.
Getting Cechini in the sandwich round would be great!
Almost Christmas morning :)
@Felonius_Monk: My only guess as to why they want more speed is that they’d like to internally develop a star-type leadoff man. The Cards do have some players with speed, but of those guys, non really have developed good on-base ability that projects towards the majors. That’s just my guess. I would love to see a speedster with on base ability in the leadoff spot sometime soon. Also, as Pujols and Holliday age into their contracts (once Pujols signs an extension), a guy with great speed and a great OBP will really help keep their “production” up as their power and bat speed begin to fade.
@dk: haha, albert’s power and bat speed may fade…thats never going to happen
@jws003: Why would you flip? We’re talking millions of dollars for a guy who might not be able to recognize or hit breaking pitches. I watched one video of him hitting, and I couldn’t believe he was in the conversation as a first-rounder. I’m not a scout, obviously, but Baseball America, which has access to more scouts than any other media outlet, has him ranked 28th on their current top 50.
If the Cards decide to take the risk, great — it’s their money and their call. But if the Cards pass at #25 on a guy with that many question marks, I won’t lose any sleep.
@jws003: Yeah, I’m with you. . .IMO we need to come out of the supplemental round with at least two very good hitting prospects, and one of those guys needs to be a legit power prospect. I’m thinking Wilson, Castellanos, O’Conner or even J. Sale at 25, and among K. Parker, Cecchini, K. Bryant or Vettleston in the supplemental.
Castellanos also has a chance of dropping to 25 if you believe some of the latest mocks. I would be happy with that pick.
@Lou Schuler:
My sentiments exactly. I get the reasoning (ceiling) behind his status, but I just don’t quite see it at this point.
Here is my latest mock draft.
1.) Washington Nationals – Bryce Harper [C; College of Southern Nevada]
2.) Pittsburgh Pirates – Jameson Tailon [RHP; Texas (HS)]
3.) Baltimore Orioles – Manny Machado [SS; Florida (HS)]
4.) Kansas City Royals – Yasmani Grandal [C; Miami (FL)]
5.) Cleveland Indians – Drew Pomeranz [LHP; Ole Miss]
6.) Arizona Diamondbacks – Chris Sale [LHP; Gulf Coast Academy]
7.) New York Mets – Justin O’Conner [C/SS; Indiana (HS)]
8.) Houston Astros – Josh Sale [OF; Washington (HS)]
9.) San Diego Padres – Michael Choice [OF; Texas-Arlington]
10.) Oakland Athletics – Christian Colon [SS; Cal State Fullerton]
11.) Toronto Blue Jays – Austin Wilson [OF; California (HS)]
12.) Cincinnati Reds – Matt Harvey [RHP; North Carolina]
13.) Chicago White Sox – Bryce Brentz [OF; Middle Tennessee State]
14.) Milwaukee Brewers – Jesse Biddle [LHP; Pennsylvania (HS)]
15.) Texas Rangers – Deck McGuire [RHP; Georgia Tech]
16.) Chicago Cubs – Karsten Whitson [RHP; Florida (HS)]
17.) Tampa Bay Rays – Delino DeShields [2B/CF; Georgia (HS)]
18.) Los Angeles Angels – Dylan Covey [RHP; California (HS)]
19.) Houston Astros – Michael Kvasnicka [C/OF; Minnesota]
20.) Boston Red Sox – Zack Cox [3B; Arkansas]
21.) Minnesota Twins – Alex Wimmers [RHP; Ohio State]
22.) Texas Rangers – Kolbrin Vitek [2B/OF; Ball State]
23.) Florida Marlins – Barrett Loux [RHP; Texas A&M]
24.) San Francisco Giants – Yordy Cabrera [SS/3B; Florida (HS)]
25.) St. Louis Cardinals – Nick Castellanos [3B; Florida (HS)]
26.) Colorado Rockies – Brett Eibner [RHP/3B; Arkansas]
27.) Philadelphia Phillies – Stetson Allie [RHP; Ohio (HS)]
28.) Los Angeles Dodgers – Aaron Sanchez [RHP; California (HS)]
29.) Los Angeles Angels – Peter Tago [RHP; California (HS)]
30.) Los Angeles Angels – Cam Bedrosian [RHP; Georgia (HS)]
31.) Tampa Bay Rays – Asher Wojciechowski [RHP; The Citadel]
32.) New York Yankees – Jedd Gyorko [2B; West Virginia]
And then I have the Cardinals taking RHP A.J. Cole and LHP Sammy Solis in the supplemental first round.
Klaw has his pre-draft chat going on over at the world wide leader. Vitek to the Pads supposedly.
@Karmaloop: If we got those 3 players I would not give a sh*t what else they did in the draft!
@Wade: Frankie Piliere is still hearing Choice is the pads #1 target with Vitek as the backup plan. That was just posted 5-10 mins ago.
@KidTwist:
I believe Dennys Reyes is a FA at year’s end…just saying
@Wade:
Not if Michael Choice is sitting there at 9. Unless Choice floats a huge demand in the next few hours, I fully expect Choice to go to the Pads at 9.
@Karmaloop:
I’d take it, but I would prefer Hahn or Paxton to Solis
@JC:
It’s probably a bit optimistic that we’d get all three, but Castellanos seems to be dropping because of his demands, even if I haven’t heard a concrete number. He’d be a good bat to get into the system. I really hate comparing players to future Hall of Famers, but I can see a little bit of Chipper Jones in him.
If you would have asked me a week ago if A.J. Cole would be available at 25, much less with our first supplemental pick I would have said the odds weren’t great. From what I’m hearing, he isn’t falling from contract demands (supposedly near slot or slightly above it), but rather from how poorly he has looked this spring. Still a very good risk to take.
And Solis is a health risk, but he kind of reminds me of a Brian Matusz-lite. Not nearly as dominant, but should be a good mid-to-end of the rotation starter in the big leagues. Should be drafted somewhere between the supplemental first and the early second round even though he missed all of the ’09 season.
@Karmaloop: I hear ya…I am hearing from multiple sources that Cole is leaving the 1st Rd which baffles me a little bit since I was hearing an ace or #2 type starter ceiling. I am very high on Castellanos and that would be the big bat that Luhnow mentioned he was going to nab for sure. Solis is a rock solid middle of the rotation big lefty…like I said I would be thrilled with those 3. Just don’t see it happening for many reasons.
@PJ:
Look for Paxton to go to either Boston, Los Angeles, or Detroit in the supplemental first round before even the Cardinals can get another chance to draft him.
As for Hahn, I’m not really sure where he’ll go. Some think he’s a supplemental first round pick, others int he second round.
@JC:
A team like New York could take a chance on him late in that first round, but I haven’t heard any teams directly associated with Cole. Cole is probably more of a #2 or #3 starter IMO, he’s got the chance to have three good pitches. The poor results this spring has made his stock sink, but his frame and projectability are keep him afloat.
@Karmaloop: There are plenty of teams that have multiple picks in the 1S Rd before us that almost guarantees Cole will be gone before hitting us. The Jays, Tigers and BoSox are the teams that seem to make the most sense in the 1S Rd.
Hope that Law is wrong, If we absolutely have to have a lefty and he’s available we need to get Biddle. That being said we gotta take BPA. How many years did we go without a lefty. We have one now we don’t need to waste a first round pick on one that NO ONE has in the first round anymore.
I asked KLAW some questions today during his chat..heres what i was able to ask..I also asked if the Cards would take a bat instead of an arm with the 1st pick but he didnt answer that question.
Lance (St.Louis)
could Paxon land with the Cards..seeing they are looking for a LHP?
Klaw
(3:43 PM)
No.
ok. since its a no on Paxson, how about Biddle for the Cards? Or are you pretty set in your Solis pick?
Matt (Pittsburgh)
Keith, how would you rate the HS bats this year?
Klaw
(3:49 PM)
Lance: Not set on Solis – could be a college RHP – but they have said they want LHP and that might be their only chance to get a decent one.Matt: Average HS bat crop. Above average HS arms. Well below average college everything.
So, he basically is going with Solis because he’s lefthanded?
Thats how i took it too
Wasn’t Solis not too long ago considered the 2nd best talent on his college staff?
@JC:
That could very well be true, but there should be a handful of other prep players sitting in that range. He could be drafted earlier than the Cards second pick or he could still be on the board, we won’t know for a couple more hours.
@PJ:
Yes, behind Brian Matusz who is already in the majors. Injury concerns are pushing him down more than anything.
If you had the choice, would you take Zack Cox or Nick Castellanos?
Sounds like they could BOTH fall to 25
@Karmaloop: That is true…this is one of the wildest drafts that I have witnessed. Maybe the craziest!
@PJ: I take Castellanos and won’t think twice. If Cox wants Alvarez money it isn’t even close for me. I like Castellanos much better defensively than Cox at 3B and even though Cox has a more advanced bat I think I still think Castellanos will have just as good of an overall bat in the bigs. Even if Castellanos costs $3M (which I have no clue what his asking price is but I heard he would be a tough sign) that is half the cost of Cox.
Alvarez money? Is that the rumor? I would prefer Cox money not considered…more advanced+potential 2b.
@PJ:
Castellanos especially if the contract demands are far apart. Cox’s bat is far from a sure thing, and there are a lot of people who think Cox has to move from 3B once he gets drafted. Castellanos figures to have a very good bat, and should be able to stick at third. I feel the question is irrelevant because I can’t see him getting past Boston AND Texas.
Seiler has us taking Loux with a back up being Castellanos. I’d be happy with either. Please say no to Paxton.
Don’t want Loux in the first round with other talent available.
@nmstar:
I’ve heard that the Marlins are really high on Loux.
Asked Frankie Piliere who he thinks the Cards are looking at, and he said that he thinks they are hoping either Matt Harvey or Anthony Ranaudo fall to the Cards at 25.
i still want austin wilson…i’m setting myself up for disappointment
@PJ: I’d take Castellanos in a heartbeat. He’s much more athletic, a better defender, and could be an impact player at the next level. Cox I think ends up a ‘tweener in the long run.
Not a fan of Barret Loux at all. Not a big fan of Ranaudo, either, though you could certainly see him becoming something special with his stuff. I just don’t like him for some reason. Can’t quite put my finger on why, exactly. Would love it if Harvey managed to fall.
I take Castellanos over Cox even if they want even money. Cox seems like a punch ‘n’ judy hitter to me. Not what you want out of 3b. Many think he’s too slow to play 2b. Sure he may be a pure hitter but I just don’t like him much. Teammate Brett Eibner is a better prospect in my opinion.
wow both callis and mayo just changed their mocks and both have us taking yasmani grandal…think they are hearing something?
@VolsnCards5:
Well I’ve heard that KC is really ticked off with Grandal for basically leaking that deal to get the Royals to bid higher, and Cleveland was more of a tool to get them to up the ante. Cincinnati would still be a pretty good chance of him landing, but absolutely no guarantees that he is still on the board at four.
Grandal from Mayo and Callis: Aiyeeeeeeeeeeee!
@Karmaloop: yea i’d be shocked if he was still there at 25…just thought it was interesting to see both callis and mayo, both of whom are big time insiders, peg us for grandal
RE: Colon….when i see two different scouting reports say that he “plays above his tools” in the field, and that his one above average tools is his hitting ability…..i don’t think “first round talent”
@VolsnCards5:
Seems like another Gordon Beckham. More of an above-average 2B in the future. Not going to be elite in anything, but should be above-average across the board.
@VolsnCards5:
IF Kansas City ultimately decided to pass on Grandal, he could be in line for a big fall. Until the Royals pick, I have a hard time believing that he’d fall all the way to the Cardinals. Wouldn’t be my favorite pick, but wouldn’t be the worst either.