Coverage of the Cardinals’ 2010 Draft Selections:
Round 1, Pick 25: Zach Cox
Round 1s, Picks 46 & 50: Seth Blair, Tyrell Jenkins
Round 2, Pick 75: Matthew Swagerty
Round 3, Pick 106: Samuel Tuivailala
Round 4, Pick 139: Cody Stanley
Round 5, Pick 169: Nicholas Longmire
Round 12, Pick 379: Austin Wilson
Draft Day Discussion
Day 1 Chat
Day 2 Chat
This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 8th, 2010 at 10:57 pm and is filed under 2010 MLB Draft. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Not that the other readers don’t know this, but you guys totally rock. The coverage of the draft here is indispensable to a fan like me. Much thanks for the pro bono work.
i wonder how many of the guys the Cards will be able to sign..there are quite a few HS and JR players the Cards Drafted.
And too whos spot are these guys going to take?
Here is a nice write up of our Day 2 picks by Dustin Mattison
Raw college numbers are more harm than good for someone not familiar with the level of competition. Beware of the stats in that article.
@Gatekeeper: Just remember that there is always tremendous attrition in the lower parts of the farm system, as players realize they’re never going to live the dream. I bet I’m not the only one here who has friends who played at the A-ball level (or higher) and discovered that they weren’t major-league-caliber talents — although they certainly had talent beyond what I ever had. Those guys come and go from farm systems almost unremarked on, and there’ll be enough of them calling it quits during or after this year to accommodate all of the new draftees, don’t worry about that.
@azruavatar: Yep. But the key is he gives a nice write up of all the Day 2 selections so we at least have another comparable source or info on players that aren’t easy to get info on. Seems that we got some athletes, LHP and MI guys for the most part. A lot of raw talent that will need multiple years to develop but all you look for once you hit the teens and beyond is something that you can work with so you can potentially get a few later rounds guys hit your big club one day or use for trade bait.
Good info over at STLToday as well on some thoughts on specific guys from Luhnow’s perspective. They view Swagerty as the best curveball in the draft and as a starter…not reliever. Worth the read.
What would you all grade this draft (assuming Wilson DOES NOT sign)
I would say it is a solid B. We have grabbed a number of OFers that could prove plus in this system. We also replenished the LHPs and got some nice upside middle infielders.
If nothing else, I love the draft strategy this year: upside and see what sticks. It is quite telling today. We are drafting mostly collegiate Seniors (ie–roster fillers)
@PJ: Without taking a harder look I would have to say a solid B or B+ on our draft. We got athletes, LHP and MI on Day 2 after a solid mix of Day 1 guys. Day 3 as usual is system fillers and you hope maybe 1 diamond in the rough. I am pleased that we got some raw tool guys even though many will bust you just hope a few break through and contribute some day. With Wilson this draft is a solid A without a doubt…but I am not holding my breathe.
I am interested to see what Dan Bibona can do. He must have better stuff than your typical “crafty” lefty given his K/BB ratio.
@PJ: He is definitely crafty. He competes by having great control of his pitches and has a solid CH and CB. His FB does have solid movement as well. These types of pitchers struggle when facing tougher competition and more disciplined hitters so I see him getting to AA semi-quickly but struggling starting at that point. I have heard Tom Glavine as a compl but that is unfair to the kid. I would say if that absolutely best case scenario happened he could get somewhere semi-close to Glavine…but with a high 80′s FB instead of the 90-91 FB that will be even tough to imagine
Hey guys, newbie here.
What kind of bonuses would you guys estimate that these guys are looking for? Specifically, Jenkins, Cox and Wilson.
I also have another somewhat-related question: Wagner Mateo. We agreed to a contract with him worth $3.5 million. Had we signed him, would that have had ramifications on this draft? Hypothetically if everything panned out the same, is there any chance at all that we would’ve drafted Cox again? Or is Cox only a realistic option now because Wagner didn’t sign?
Basically what I’m asking is, would the Wagner bonus have pulled from our “draft fund,” or do you believe that it was independent money but can now be reallocated to the draft as “extra” money to play with (to possibly try and pry someone like Wilson away)?
Personally I think about 800k-1mil gets Jenkins and 3-4 each for Cox and Wilson. Cox has said he wants 6 mil which caused him to drop so far but I think when he’s staring at a contract with 3 mil he will sign it. Next years draft is loaded. Regarding Mateo, I’m not really sure if that has ramifications. I know we gave a big time DR pitcher 1.5 million just a week or so ago. I have no contact with the FO but I have my theory that they realize that with the Holliday contract the future Pujols contract and hopefully Waino also that a large majority of money will be tied up in core players. Because of this the rest of the team needs to be homegrown young guys such as Rasmus and Freese. Now if we don’t want to have a AAA team around our stars we need to start drafting more impact players with upside and developing them. Just yesteraday I read an article that goes into LaRussa issues with Luhnow the last few years regarding the draft and drafting bat guys and relievers rather than taking chances and experimentation on players that we could build a team around. If this isn’t the FO plan, I wish someone would tell them this is now we need to do it. Draft BPA pay over slot money while MLB still allows it and develop our stars of tomorrow. There may be a hard slotting system soon and the Cardinals will no longer get a chance to draft real top end talent if they continue to have successful seasons. If we pay more now we can pay less later when we have developed starters that are cost controlled rather than taking other teams trashpile free agents. IMO the draft budget needs to be raised for the next few years to coinside with a change in organizational philosophy.
Got some great current stuff on drafties, who we passed on and what bonuses may be.
@Kyle: Here are the estimated draft bonuses that I see those 3 guys demanding:
Cox – $2.5-3M
Jenkins – $1-1.4M
Wilson – $3-4M
As far as the Mateo Q. Most teams (that I have heard talk about this topic) insist that their is a separate budge for the draft and international signings. Does that mean they won’t adjust one or the other depending on circumstances…no. Just means each year they go into it with XX number of $$$ for draft and international on the spreadsheet. If they want to spend more in one area then they (like any company) just has to adjust numbers on the budget or get approval from executives to increase the budget. Remember we signed Matias (as Andrew stated) for $1.5M (pending MLB approval and physical).
BTW – Luhnow in an interview on STLToday said we have 20 guys signed and plane tickets purchased but no names were given. You can bet these are later round picks that usually get signed quickly.
Cool where can I find that interview I always like to see what Luhnow has to say. I expected that as short season starts next friday. Jenkins indicated that he’s taking the summer off so I don’t expect him to sign until closer to the deadline. He will get his million. Tuivanila is signing as is the guy from Pacific. Stanley is a sure thing, Herron may not. The people I’m most interested in are obviously Wilson, and would like to know if Williams and Bryant will sign. Most notably Bryant as he has a scholarship to play at powerhouse USC as a safety. He’s a great athlete runs a 6.1 60 and yet caught the Cardinals attention when he won a home run derby at a workout the team had.
@Andrew: Here ya go:
Now that USC is banned from the postseason for two years, how does everyone think this will impact the USC commits? I don’t think it will impact much because they will still get national broadcasts and publicity w/o the post season.
Andrew, I completely agree with what you’re saying. I think it’s important that the organization undergoes a paradigm shift. Instead of filling needs with one-or-two year stopgaps, they need to start reallocating some of that money to the draft. A payroll so-heavily-invested in Pujols and Holliday absolutely -needs- to be complemented with young, cost-controlled talent. There’s no other way we can sustain competitiveness with a $100-$110 million payroll. It just isn’t going to happen.
Is there any way at all they would sign all of the “big names?” It looks like the draft budget would have to double to support that. But then again, committing that much to the draft seems pretty modest when stacked up against some of the contracts we throw out there (especially against someone like Lohse’s contract; $40 million for mediocrity. Ugh). I wish I had a better grasp on how stuff like this works.
Strauss said in his recent Q and A that the Cardinals do in fact have insurance on Lohse’s contract. Definately a good thing, while I admit he’s been hurt I think alot of his troubles are between his ears. The article I talked about where LaRussa had issues with some of Luhnows drafts really focused the issue for me. I don’t think that Jenkins will be a tough sign at all. Hopefully Anthony Bryant signs too as he’s a real toolshed and he may be one of the players losing his schlorship because of the USC violation. Not sure if Cox signs but I don’t think his stock can do anything but drop if he comes back for his junior year. He may get the 3 million again but I doubt he ever gets the 6 he’s talking about. Wilson it goes without saying that its a tough situation but hopefully he sees how great a situation he could have in STL.
@Wade: and of course I meant the football/baseball commits, not just baseball. I think it’s only the football that’s banned and loses scholarships.
@Wade: It can only be helpful that USC has been penalized. Bryant is a baseball stud and it would be nice to get him signed.
@JC: I can understand Luhnow’s enthusiasm. This draft worked out great.
I figure Cox will sign for $2.25MM.
Leake was Arizona State’s ace last spring, this year its Blair. He will sign.
I am really pumped about Jenkins. He’s a great looking athlete. He wants to turn pro.
Swaggerty will sign.
I love the 3Bman Sam. Powerful arm and bat.
Love Bryant in the 16th round. Hope we can woo him from USC.
Not expecting Wilson to sign, but the Cards will make a serious offer.
Jocketty made a big move to spend $30MM on LHP Chapman. That has lit a fire under Mo. We need to recruit stud talents, like Jenkins, Sam, Bryant, Wilson, Cox. Splurge with DeWitt’s dough.
I hope your right and we see an change in philosophy organizationally. I think its in the process of happening and hope it continues. Jenkins reminds me of a young Dwight Gooden.
Been looking more into Anthony Bryant and WOW quite an athlete. Baseball Beginings says that his main tool is his plus plus power and he won a HR contest at a Cardinal try out. His power must be huge if it overshadows his speed as he won state in the 100 m dash and runs a 6.1 60. That’s pretty much unheard of in baseball. Add to the fact he hits lefty and he will fly down the line. He is scheduled to play both baseball and football at USC. Not sure how much it will c ost to sign him and he’s more of a true athlete than a baseball player but with those tools and the right insruction he can really be something special.
Honestly, the 3rd baseman was not a favorite pick of the draft for me. $300 k for a kid who barely hit .300 in high school and is extremely raw as a hitting prospect is tough. Usually, you want to see players at least show some production at the high school level to take them that highly. I understand you take tools first and foremost, but most of what I’ve read on the kid had him as a pitcher. He does have a solid arm and athleticism, but he’s going to be a 3rd baseman or RF, and I’m not sure I see more upside in him than several other players that could be had for that same $300 k.
I’d much rather have had Jordan Shipers, who is said to be wanting that same $300 k amount, Aaron Shipman with that pick, or Mike Kickham, who is also looking for the $300 k figure (just name examples).
I’m not saying the kid doesn’t have talent, but everything I’ve read of him simply talks about his athleticism and his arm strength. I’m not saying I’ve given up on the kid before he’s ever even played. What I’m saying is there are prospects I thought also had great tools, results, and would have signed for similar amounts of money. We’ll see what happens, I hope the kid is a monster obviously.
I see no way in Hades that Wilson signs, but I’d give him the $3 million if I were the Cards’ brass. They need upside position player talent, and could accomplish that quickly with Cox and Wilson. $6 million for those two, $1.4 for Jenkins, $1 for Blair, $900k for Swaggerty, $300k for Sam, and then on down for out other picks is a whole ton of money spent on a draft though. That would be the most spent by any team, and probably more than the Nationals spend on Harper and their draft class (unless they can somehow sign AJ Cole, who wants $2 million in the 4th).
We should make a concerted effort to sign Anthony Bryant. Great athlete-Plus plus power and 100m state champion sprinting speed. Has a Bo Jackson build. Not sure how his arm is. Not sure how much I like his swing but he is very raw in baseball and could use alot of development. He’s set to play baseball and football at USC. Not sure if that has changed though because of the reduced football scholarships. Great pick and hope he signs.
The Cards played it smart. You cannot sign Wilson or to sign Bryant, if you do not invest a draft pick.
Wilson is a real tough sign. He plans to go to a great academic college and he can make a big bonus in 3 years. His family is well to do. This is why other teams held back. But Luhnow figures, give it a shot. The Cards will see if there is a way they could structure an offer that would work for Wilson. If will be a big offer, because he has a lot of other options.
Bryant is another super athlete. We do not know if he is as big on academics or if his family is well to do. The Cards will go hard after him too. It wont be easy, but it might happen, just like we got Darryl Jones away from Rice U.
If teams were confident Bryant was signable, he might have been a 3rd rounder, given his tools. Lets give him a some extra bonus money to help him make the right choice to pursue a great career in baseball.
Bryant is a sleeper, too. He must have played more football and track. He was not well known to baseball scouts, even if he went to some tryouts. Bryant is not a high profile amateur, like Wilson now, or even Darryl Jones back in 2005. Bryant is a tool shed, but he must be inexperienced as a baseball player, have not played for a high school with a good program, and he will have a lot to learn.
I saw some info on him and his jr and sr year his team had losing records…..He’s very raw as a player but that just gives us a chance to shape him as we see fit. He’s not too well known in football either he only had 10 catches for 200 yards his Senior year. He wasn’t recruited by Texas schools but somehow USC found him and gave him a scholarship. Playing D1 in 2 major sports at a school like USC may prove to be difficult.
In 2009, the Phillies signed a southpaw out of Connelly High, 13th rounder, got a bonus of $100,000 not to go to Sam Houston State. In 2007, a 27th round OF from Connelly did not sign. So Connelly High does get scouted. This suggests Bryant is raw and did not excel as a hitter. He is fast and strong, but has not harnessed this on the baseball diamond. He can slug in batting practice, maybe not in games.
Bryant seems undervalued. Back in 2005, the Cards found LHP Jaime Garcia as a draft bargain from Texas because he did not play that spring. Maybe MLB scouts thought Bryant was focused on track or football. But if he is interested to try baseball, he has the tools to develop into a star.
Bryant is like a poor man’s Kendrick Perkins. Perkins is a big fast left swinging OF from LaPorte, Texas. He was a high school football star, says he wants to go baseball rather than college football. The Red Sox picked Perkins in the 6th round and will probably make him a big offer. I had hoped the Cards would draft Perkins, but Bryant is a decent fallback and his bonus will not need to be as high.
The Cards bonused Tommy Pham $325,000 in 2006, 16th round, to forget about a scholarship to Fullerton. Maybe that kind of money would allow Perkins to forget about USC.
The NCAA’s ruling allows a player committed to USC to leave without penalty, so Bryant could transfer to another school if he wanted to to play football, but would have to sit out a year as a transfer for baseball.
Do you mean Bryant?
Adding these sorts of tools to the organization would be very exciting, but let’s not overblow this thing. We have added “toolsy” types before that have yet to fulfill their potential—hello Tommpy Pham, Jon Edwards, Ryde Rodriguez
Alot of times toolsy guys are slower to develop because they are more athletes than baseball players coming in. Can’t expect them to jet through the system.
@PJ: Edwards is a good example. It took about $110K to get him signed. His swing needed a lot of work. What I like about Bryant is the combination of size, speed, and left swing.
Some want the Cards to draft tools and projection. This year, they selected some young, raw, or under the radar people:
SS/3B Sam Tuivailala
SS Garcia, not a lot of buzz about the U Hawaii player
Looks like we have a number of signings to report per Dustin Mattison Twitter:
Walsh (Johnson City, Klein (Batavia), Bryant, Dodd, Whiting (Johnson City), Tuivailala, Stanley, Longmire, Garcia and Benes (Johnson City)
Seems like a number of the athletes that we drafted got signed. Get to work boys!
Multiple reports say we have 33 of our draft picks signed (which includes the guys I mentioned above). We also signed the son of our Springfield Pitching Coach Dennis Martinez, Ricky Martinez as an undrafted FA.
I would have expected Tuivailala to go to GCL because of his age and Longmire to go to Batavia as a high draftee from a major baseball conference.
The only reason I’m not surprised Stanley is not at Batavia is that we have several other catchers from last year who are still in EST including De La Cruz.
The list of 33 from Brian Walton at TheCardinalNation.com
Batavia roster posted
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