Jun
11
2010
(More) Advanced Stats for (more) College Draftees – Hitters
Posted by erik in 2010 MLB DraftAll stats are schedule and park adjusted and come courtesy of College Splits.
Earlier in the week I posted some of these advanced stats for the picks taken on day one and two of the draft, now here’s day three, plus I added in a few new stats – walk-to-strikeout ratio, batting average of balls in play and speed score.
| Pos. | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BB% | K% | ISO | BB/K | BABIP | Spd | |
| Zack Cox | 3B | 265 | .420 | .509 | .598 | .483 | 14.0% | 12.1% | .178 | 1.16 | .464 | 6.9 |
| Cody Stanley | C | 280 | .341 | .455 | .562 | .443 | 15.4% | 7.9% | .221 | 1.95 | .340 | 5.6 |
| Nick Longmire | OF | 248 | .302 | .409 | .470 | .392 | 14.5% | 15.7% | .168 | 0.92 | .350 | 5.4 |
| Greg Garcia | SS | 274 | .431 | .513 | .610 | .492 | 11.7% | 10.6% | .179 | 1.10 | .479 | 8.3 |
| Colin Walsh | 2B | 278 | .330 | .445 | .520 | .427 | 15.8% | 17.6% | .190 | 0.90 | .389 | 4.7 |
| Geoff Klein | C | 267 | .323 | .411 | .498 | .404 | 10.5% | 9.4% | .175 | 1.12 | .335 | 2.9 |
| Chad Oberacker | CF | 284 | .431 | .507 | .661 | .502 | 11.6% | 8.5% | .230 | 1.38 | .462 | 7.5 |
| Pat Biserta | LF | 271 | .440 | .502 | .812 | .548 | 10.3% | 10.3% | .372 | 1.00 | .439 | 6.8 |
| Victor Sanchez | 1B | 147 | .265 | .400 | .470 | .388 | 13.6% | 11.6% | .205 | 1.18 | .263 | 4.3 |
| Taylor Black | SS | 231 | .281 | .398 | .517 | .403 | 6.9% | 14.7% | .236 | 0.47 | .284 | 6.0 |
| Mike O'Neill | OF | 226 | .387 | .456 | .522 | .434 | 11.5% | 6.2% | .135 | 1.86 | .401 | 5.7 |
| Joey Bergman | 2B | 230 | .351 | .452 | .516 | .431 | 12.2% | 9.6% | .165 | 1.27 | .376 | 7.3 |
| Matt Valaika | 2B | 217 | .284 | .383 | .415 | .361 | 9.2% | 16.6% | .131 | 0.56 | .333 | 6.8 |
| Packy Elkins | SS | 238 | .327 | .495 | .679 | .494 | 19.3% | 8.8% | .352 | 2.19 | .252 | 6.2 |
| Phil Cerreto | 3B | 226 | .409 | .471 | .710 | .504 | 11.5% | 6.2% | .301 | 1.86 | .391 | 5.1 |
| Chris Edmondson | OF | 244 | .363 | .436 | .627 | .459 | 7.8% | 8.6% | .264 | 0.90 | .353 | 5.5 |
| Adam Melker | OF | 243 | .342 | .433 | .538 | .425 | 9.5% | 9.5% | .196 | 1.00 | .363 | 7.1 |
Remember, these stats are neutralized for park and strength of schedule.
As far as late round draft picks go, Packy Elkins and Phil Cerreto are about as interesting as they come, or at least they have some noteworthy stat lines.
Plus, Packy Elkins name is Packy, and he has some interesting facial hair.
Real college baseball player, not an undercover police officer
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You had my attention at Packy, but the picture sealed the deal. I’d say add him to the team now; he can’t be any worse than Aaron Miles (plus I don’t think Miles can grow that sweet ‘stache).
Assuming Packy signs (how could he not?), I think we may have a new DFR favorite
Elkins had a .494 wOBA w. a .252 BABIP? Damn!
Garcia intrigues me. I didn’t realize he was that fast, and Sackman @ collegesplits.com rates his defense very high. Not sure what to think of his offense w. that .479 BABIP.
I wish I had more of a basis to go off of in judging what kind of BABIPs are normal for the college run scoring environnment. I’m sure defense is worse than the major leagues so high BABIPs are the norm, relatively, but I’m sure there can still be a ton of luck and fluctuation in every player’s numbers.
Anyone have any sort of scouting report on some of these guys?
I’ve asked Kent Bonham about what the average BABIP is in college, but I assume it’s much higher than just .300. He’s looking into it and said he’ll get back with me.
Could Klein be slower than Molina?
I´d be interested what a good spped number is as well.
Packy Elkins is destined to become a utility player. I just feel it. You can’t have a name like that and not be a scrappy blip on the radar.
Cerreto the #1219 intrigues me. He might be that “Diamond in the Rough” Here is a link to a nice article in the Richmond Times-Dispatch that tells you a little be more about him.
http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/sports/college/college_baseball/article/LONG04_20100503-222004/341920/
I think it’s pretty clear Packy Elkins is actually Kevin Spacey in disguise.
Haha was thinking the same thing.
A walk-on at college, Cerreto became a two-year team captain and was a offensive player of the year for the summer Costal Plains League last year. He holds school career records in career hits and sacrifice flies (he also was second in plate appearances, so take that with a grain of salt). It’s hard to judge college stats, but he might be a guy to track, as he appears to be the type of unheralded, older player who pushes himself through the system.
So, as best I understand it, there is little possibility of good news about the Cards’ two big picks (Cox and Wilson) until the signing deadline. Correct? Above-slot signing bonuses will likely be required for either, and MLB will not approve a contract like that until the last minute?
Thanks for all the info on the other picks (and Cox, too). It gives me something to speculate about and keep track of until then.
If they sign at all Cox and Wilson will not be approved till the last few days before although I’m sure that there will be leaks that the teams have come to terms. Blair will probably go around slot and he should be pitching in QC soon. Jenkins will be above slot and won’t be signed till semi last minute.
@ Andrew
Thanks. It is like opening all your Christmas presents, finding out that you got what you really wanted, and then being told that you might be able to have the really nice toys in March. If you are lucky.
There has to be a better way to do this. Hard-and-fast signing bonus and rookie contracts, a la the NBA. Or, Big Brother Selig just shutting up and going away. On the other hand, under the current system, the Cards at least have the chance to sign Cox and Wilson.
I think we see Swagerty and Blair in QC soon just like we saw Miller last year at the end of the year. Swagerty may start in short season if they want to try to make him a starter.