The Cardinals have signed 34 players according to Baseball America. The scoreboard at Busch Stadium said 33 on Wednesday night when I was there. None of the top 4 picks have signed. If you’d like give me your predictions in the thread — tell me if the player a) signs and b) how much (if applicable) and c) the day (if applicable).
1) Zach Cox
2) Seth Blair
3) Tyrell Jenkins
4) Jordan Swagerty
5) Austin Wilson
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Going to be optimistic and say all of them. Cox stock drops if he stays. Swagertys wouldn’t change. Jenkins seems to indicate he wants to be a Big League Pitcher. Blair no reason not too, Wilson I think he’s 50/50 right now and his own words on May 12 seem to indicate he knows that signing would be best for his career and getting started with the wood bat early. Parents seemed to be pushing school but backed off a week before draft as they thought they were scaring people away. Our FO has known the Wilsons for a few years and they may have called when it seemed like he wouldn’t be picked at all. I just have a feeling that the parents are smart and know that turning down 3 million when the future is uncertain isn’t the best thing in the world especially with that money buying any education if he doesn’t make it in baseball.
AThey will all be signed it may be late on some of them but they will sign. All the club needs to do is offer the appropriate money.
1) Yes, 2.7MM, 7-27-10
2) Yes, 1.3MM, 7-17-10
3) Yes, 2.1MM, 8-10-10
4) Yes, 1.0MM, 8-1-10
5) No :(
1) yes, 2.15mm, 8-1-10
2) yes, 1.05mm, 7-12-10
3) yes, 1.25mm, 7-19-10
4) yes, 795k, 7-13-10
5) yes, 2.85mm, 8-3-10
Offer them all slot money and if they don’t sign who cares. It has gotten out of control for unproven talent. It is making it tougher for family’s to come to see the big club play. Agents are ruining the game.
@Andrew–I think you’re putting far too much stock in Wilson’s parents backing off of their earlier statements. Wilson’s parents’ are well-to-do; the $3 million (if, in fact, that’s what the Cardinals offer) may not mean as much as a college education if the baseball thing doesn’t work out. Wilson was available in the 12th round because no team believes he was worth the gamble of losing a higher draft pick if he doesn’t sign, and many teams have more information on his parents’ beliefs and intent than their public statements. Even the Cardinals are not optimistic in their public statements.
As for the rest, in the order they sign….
1. Seth Blair
2. Jordan Swagerty
3. Zack Cox
4. Tyrell Jenkins
Jenkins will be the hardest to sign, because he’s the perfect example of a talented but raw player who has little to lose in developing a couple more years to get a better draft position, but he’s still signable. The negotiations for Cox probably will be similar to the ones for Miller, with a similar result. Blair and Swagerty should sign fairly quickly.
@Play Hardball:
What these guys are getting paid has little if any to do with what major league clubs charge for admission. If you want to complain look to the big dollar contracts that the guys already in the majors are demanding. 1 million dollars seems minut compared to someone getting a $120 Million contract.
@Forsch31:
With the signing bonus he can always go back to Stanford at any time. I’m sure he and his parents see the value is him doing it himself rather than him living off his parents while he completes his education. If he blows out a knee or back does he lose his scholarship if he can’t playbaseball? I guess I’m just going with my gut in this case but I don’t think hes the impossible sign everyone thinks. WIth Jenkins under the Draft Coverage Jenkins thread I posted an interview which lead me to believe he will be an easy sign. We can pay him over slot and divide it up because he’s a 2 sports guy. Seemse to me that because of the rawness of Jenkins he’s the most likely to drop in position significantly. Also I take the lateness of the 50th pick and the fact that they were on the phone with someone as us getting confirmation from Jenkins he would sign.
Unrelated to the draft it looks like we have a lefty pitcher on the DSL team that has recorded almost 2 so per IP.
Delvi Rodriguez
Born: 09/14/1990
6-2 170
8.2 IP 16 SO 4.0 GO/AO .172 Opp Avg
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=572569
The other is pitcher that was just signed is Carlos Matias
Carlos Matias 6-0 165 Thw R
16 IP 21 SO 3 BB 0.56 ERA .140 AVG
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=593372
Blair will sign for slot. Swaggerty is a sophmore, but will as well. Jenkins will sign, but may need a little extra, because of football leverage. Cox will go down to the last day of the signing period and be well over slot, say $2.2MM when slot would be around $1.1MM.
Wilson is a longshot, but not impossible. If he signs, Mr. DeWitt will have to be generous.
Ryde I agree with you. I think Wilson is better than a longshot but he will be the most difficult sign. Cox is a sure thing in my mind but the commissoner won’t let him sign till the last few days. I wonder if the Brewers are allowed to sign players over slot seeing as Selig is an owner of the team.
@Play Hardball: Dissagree without spending money on unproven talent we won’t have good players in STL ever. It’s just how the game is now and if we stop playing the game St. Louis will no longer be in the hunt every year.
1) Cox – Yes. . .2.4 million. . .Aug. 1
2) Blair – Yes. . .1.2 million. . .July 15
3) Jenkins – Yes. . .1.6 million. . .Aug. 8
4) Swagerty – Yes. . .850K. . .June 28
5) Wilson – No
1) yes, 2.5mm, 8-14-10
2) yes, 1.2mm, 7-25-10
3) yes, 1.4mm, 8-10-10
4) yes, 900k, 7-20-10
5) no
I will play the glass is half full game for now.
1) Cox – $2.6M
2) Blair – $750K (Slot)
3) Jenkins – $1.25M (Multi Sport – spread over time)
4) Swagerty – $490K (Slot)
5) Wilson – $3.25M + Full expense paid college education after baseball
That right there is roughly $7.5M so they would need to have a budget of roughly $10M to make this happen. But I would rather put my happy thoughts on this for now!
everyone keeps saying if we pay wilson a bunch he can go back to stanford anytime, but he can’t, he’s not smart. He had what, a 3.2 gpa? That certainly doesn’t get you into stanford unless you can, oh, smash a baseball or fly on the football field. Playing baseball is his only hope of going to stanford.
Is there a rule, written or otherwise, that a player can’t be signed for over slot money until the end of the signing period. I’ve seen this alluded to a few times but haven’t heard that there actually is such a rule.
Does anyone think Boras is going to let Blair sign for slot? It may not be a lot over slot but I can almost guarantee Boras wont have his client signing for slot. Certainly not before the deadline.
the commissioner won’t approve over slot deals until just before the signing deadline. no rule in writing, just in application. also, if the parents backed off on their talk because they feared he wouldn’t be picked, then that tells me their has to be a chance of signing him. if they really didn’t want him to sign, and wanted him to go to Stanford, why back off so that he WOULD be picked? still a long shot, but feeling better about it each day. assuming all sign….assuming….how would the top 10 prospects list look after this?
@easy: not so much a rule as a recommendation by the commish
Cox signs on August 15th. The deadline is the 16th this year.
Blair is a slot sign.
Jenkins will definitely sign. Rarely does a top-50 guy not sign. He’ll be twice slot though.
Swaggerty is a slot sign.
Wilson will not sign.
@Dan in Haiti:
1. Miller
2. Wilson
3. Cox
4. Lynn
5. Jenkins
6. Mattias
7. Blair
8. Stock
9. Jay
10. Sanchez
@lopey:
He got a 3.2 at a very elite hard private school. He is also a legacy as his mother went there. Stanford is going to turn down a legacy professional athelete who also happens to be a millionaire who can donate money to the school? I don’t think so. I believe Wilson will be a great baseball player I also think for his own purposes he will want to go to Stanford even if he signs out of high school and becomes a star. I can see him signing with us and after being established for a few years taking classes at Stanford during the off season.
Wow interesting though on our top 10 if everyone signs?
1. Miller
2. Sanchez
3. Wilson
4. Matias
5. Cox
6. Lynn
7. Ottavino
8. Jenkins
9. Jay
10. Craig
@Dan in Haiti: Great question. Here is my take on the Top 10 if all the critical 2010 players sign. This assumes Garcia and Freese are the only 2 that graduate
1) Cox – His upside is solid and he is very polished…only reason I took him over Miller
2) Miller – Potential ace but needs to work on his control…but the K potential is crazy good
3) Ottavino – Yes this is very optimistic that he keeps up his good year ALL year. But the potential is there and he is very close to big league ready
4) Lynn – Solid middle of the rotation innings eater – should arrive for good in 2011
5) Sanchez – I feel he is the lights out closer of the future – great stuff AND command
6) Wilson – Very raw but loads of potential. Will be a project that will take a minimum of 3-4 yrs to arrive. Legit middle of the order bat if all works out
7) Descalso – Keeps moving on up! Our 2B of the future.
8) Blair – Another solid middle of the rotation guy that could be higher in the rankings…need to see him against pro hitters first
9) Swagerty – I view him as a reliever and a good one at that. Should move quick and arrive to be the SU man for Sanchez
10) Kelly – I am a big fan of Kelly and think he has quite a bit of potential
I dont have Stock in my top 20. Why would people rate him so highly?
I have Cox #1. Him and Miller were similarly ranked. Miller hasn’t made himself standout as a player of his ranking should. Giving Cox the benefit of the doubt, I put him ahead of Miller.
I like Sanchez but I’ve become skeptical of the value of relievers.
If Matias was that good, he would have signed for more.
Cox
Miller
Wilson
Sanchez
Lynn
Ottavino
Craig
Jay
Jenkins
Matias
Skeptical of value of relievers? They are obviously easier to develop and find but I think they still deserve top billing. Just think where our team would be this yaer without Jason Motte. With the class of relievers we have at the Major League Level and as prospects we could have years of only needing 6 to 7 innings before a game is essentially over, like the Reds in 90 and 91.
Obviously this is a dream scenario, but our 2010 draftees would completely transform our top 10. I have Cox over Miller simply because he’s a lefty hitter who put together the highest batting average in 13+ years in (arguably) the toughest conference in college baseball. Miller has not disappointed but is not a slam dunk either. Wilson is this high only because of his potential. He could be a Dmitri Young-type from the 91 draft. . .take about 4-5 years in the minors before coming into his own, and blossoming in the majors.
1) Z. Cox
2) S. Miller
3) A. Wilson
4) Sanchez
5) Matias
5) Blair
6) Lynn
7) Descalso
8) Kelly
9) Swagerty
10) Stock
@cariocacardinal: I’m behind in my write-up but Stock was a pleasant surprise at Quad Cities for me this past weekend.
@Andrew:
I believe the idea of him going back to school would be in case he wasn’t a success at the mlb level. In that case, he wouldn’t be all those things you mentioned and he’d probably be going to school so he could get a degree so he could get a good job.
I was operating under the assumption Ottavino graduates to the bigs and doesn’t qualify next year. He’d need quite a few more innings not to though.
I’d probably move Jay out, and put Ottavino there. Leave Sanchez at 10. He has great potential, but his value is lessened by being a reliever only, and his smallish frame. Relievers are gaining value as their price rises at the ML level.
I’m hoping Blair remains a starter, but if he moves to reliever, he wouldn’t be a top-10 guy for me. I usually rank my prospects with a little more thought towards their ultimate upside, which is why i have Miller and Wilson ahead of Cox. Cox seems almost sure to be a big leaguer some day, but I’m not sure his upside is that of a “star” like the other two. He is more likely to reach his ceiling though, so if you ranked him ahead of those guys, I’d understand.
@Andrew: “Easier to develop and find” = less value. Supply and demand – much greater supply. Jay in 26 AB’s has created as much WAR this year than Motte who is our #1 set up guy out of the pen has all year. Jay has created twice McClellen’s WAR.
If we ranked on upside and upside only, what would the list look like? Going by the most potential, I think mine would be something like this….
1. Wilson
2. Miller
3. Matias
4. Jenkins
5. Cox
6.Sanchez
7. Kelly
8. Ottavino
9. Samuel
10. Blair….although many could fit here, Virgil Hill, Daryl Jones, etc. etc….
Top 10
This assumes the graduations of PJ Walters, Adam Ottavino, Allen Craig, Bryan Anderson, and Jon Jay
1-Shelby Miller: A potential ACE has to be #1.
2-Zack Cox: I foresee a great #2 hitter in front of Albert for years. Should move fast.
3-Austin Wilson: Although I tend to be in the school of signing skepticism, if he does sign color me giddy. Haven’t had an OF with such upside since….JD Drew?
4-Eduardo Sanchez: He is filthy, commands his pitches, and is only 20. Our mouths should be watering…
5-Dan Descalsco: He might start 2B out of Spring Training.
6-Daryl Jones: I hold out hope. Tools don’t go away that quickly.
7-Lance Lynn: A lower ceiling and subpar performance at AAA drops him a bit, but I think he is a ML starter sooner rather than later
8-Pete Kozma: Yes, I dare put him in my top 10. Only 22, Pistol Pete is showing a little more stick this year. He could be in the Lou by 2012.
9-Jordan Swaggerty: He is the 3rd and final 2010 draftee on the list based on a potential accelerated schedule to the bigs. Also, he has a nice mix of pitches for a reliever—KMac part 2?
10-Carlos Mattias: This spot was a tossup between Tyrell Jenkins and Mattias. Since Mattias has thrown some semi-pro, quite successfully, he gets it.
Honorable Mentions: Scott Gorgen, Aaron Luna, Jenkins, Seth Blair, Derrick Hooker, Scott Schneider, Joe Kelly
The top-10 list really deserves a thread of its own, but:
1. Miller — highest ceiling
2. Cox
3. Wilson, but don’t hold your breath, he’s not signing
4. Lynn
5. Matias
6. Blair
7. Sanchez
8. Hooker (if he’s grown up, he has tremendous potential)
9. Jenkins
10. Descalso
11. Stock — throwing in one more because I think there’s a less than 1% chance that Wilson signs.
@Wade:
Thanks
Anderson will not graduate. Its doubtful Jay and Craig will and barring a long term injury to one of our starters almost impossible both will.
Why put Swagerty ahead of Blair? Even if Blair was a reliever he would have been drafted ahead of Swagerty.
saw on BA that Callis likes Cox’s raw power above Wallaces, and he will likely be able to stay at third. pair him with colby and you have 2 pretty good LH hitterrs in your lineup. that would make him my #1.
1. cox
2. miller
3. wilson
4. jenkins
5. sanchez
6. blair
7. matias
8. ottavino
9. jay
10. descalso
@cariocacardinal: Uh, $1.5 million is a lot of money to give any Latin American player, especially a 19-year old pitcher.
@cariocacardinal:
Although the current plan is for both to start, I would presume Swagerty finds his way to the pen more quickly. After that, I would expect him to rise through the system more quickly. Basically, he is ahead on my list based on his perceived floor (perception of mine)
@erik:
Yes it is but Ben Badler said he has the best fastball in the July 2nd and MLB draft class. High 90′s with good control.
@cariocacardinal:
On the graduates—-they all have had ML cups of coffee. I would presume that each will get a longer look next year
@erik: True, but with a late first round pick being worth about $2 million (net of $1 million bonus for a total of $3 million) and the fact that Matias was a FA compared to the first round pick that has minimum bargaining leverage it seems illogical to rate an amateur FA player signed for $1.5 million higher than I would rate a normal later first round pick.
If you’ve seen Swaggerty pitch, you know he’s a reliever. There is a LOT of effort to his delivery.
He’s Kyle McClellan with a little more velocity.
Tackle- I believe he wants to go to Stanford anyway to have the school experience. The in a recent interview he mentions having 2 great options getting a head start on a pro career by starting with the wood bat quickly and having a good college experience. He fully expects to succeed in the Big which leads me to believe Stanford isn’t about being a backup but instead an experience. If he gets hurt he can always then get his education with the very large signing bonus that he will get if he signs with the Cardinals. In reality if he goes to Stanford he will leave after his Junior year not complete his degree and he could really lose himself money. If Stanford really is about insurance than what better insurance is their than the money he will recieve by signing. It will easily buy him a Stanford education.
@cariocacardinal: @cariocacardinal: No, I’m fine with rating Matias lower and I agree, $1.5M on the international market doesn’t = $1.5 signing bonus in the draft. That said, $1.5 is still a pretty huge bonus for an international player.
@erik:
But, he got a $1.5 million bonus even given his legal issues…not sure the effect there
@Andrew:
College is a waste…take the money! I know (6 years collegiate “experience”—including grad school + this job market = Waste of time!)
Haha..I agree with you I went to for 5 years got a degree and am now going back 10 years later to get a teachers certificate.
@Andrew:
Lol.. I know all about the job Market…lol.. I worked for Motorola until Sep 2008 and was downsized. I graduated with a BS Finance, am finsihing my MBA – Accounting, and will be starting a PHD program at University of Tennessee. Hoping the job market improves. College is a waste if you are going just for somthing general. You need to pic out somthing specific… Doctor, PA, Lawyer, Computer Science, Accounting, Taxation etc. If I had my dream job I would want to be involved in a professional baseball org.
@cariocacardinal: I don’t know that any of these guys will “graduate,” but I’d bet just about anything that not all of them will be with the Cardinals next year, whether in the Show or the farm system. One thing that these major-league cameos do is to get the players exposure as trade bait. Just look at the way the team demoed Todd and Mortensen last year. Anderson’s brief cup of coffee amounts to something similar. Jay’s not-so-brief one may have done more than that: it may have secured him an image as ATTRACTIVE trade bait. At this point I’d give better than even odds that he’ll be traded near the deadline for something the Cardinals need more than they need Rasmus Lite, which is basically what Jay is — by no means an insult, because you can be 90% of Colby Rasmus and still be a very good player.
Craig, by contrast, had an “anti-cameo.” His showing in the bigs not only did nothing to tee him up as attractive trade bait, it poses a real question as to whether he’s a prospect at all. Given the way the system has (probably) been strengthened by this draft, as well as what happened when he faced major-league pitching, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to move him down the prospect ladder by a significant amount.
>>”Stanford is going to turn down a legacy professional athelete who also happens to be a millionaire who can donate money to the school? I don’t think so.”
Legacies don’t get you into a school like Stanford, not if you’re below the GPA cut-off (which also doesn’t make exceptions, especially for private prep schools, whose academic achievement is very hard to judge). My sister used to work as the head of fundraising for an elite private school in DC, and what you’re suggesting here–that a school would waive its basic academic requirements to bring in a well-moneyed student who doesn’t meet them–is both insulting to a school as prestigious as Stanford and illegal as heck. Athletes operate by different rules, because they have additional responsiblities that would affect their academic performance.
Wilson’s admitted on a full baseball scholarship. He signs with the Cardinals, he loses that scholarship forever. Once he turns pro, he can no longer play for any NCAA team. So that’s his choice–a full ride at Stanford, or the minor league system for St. Louis.
Do we know what the acceptance requirements are for Stanford? I find it hard to believe that Ivy League schools so readily accept legacies yet Stanford doesn’t? Not a political thread but didn’t President George W get into Yale? He was admittedly not a good student in HS or College. With Wilson would he ever be able to complete his education if he left after his junior year to be drafted? If not if he busts he will have 3 years of Stanford on his resume but not a degree. Forsch31 can’t say I agree with you regarding legacies but you may be more informed that I am.
@cariocacardinal: Greene, Hamilton, McCormack (your spelling), Gary Daley Jr, all had Boras as agent and signed for slot.
@Forsch31:
Sorry but he can still attend school there both Fall and Spring and still be able to play for the short season clubs the Cards have. This can be worked out. Lets no make it sound as though its impossible. Lets see here? Get a signing bonus of $1 or 2 million, play minor league ball during the summer, attend College in the Fall & Spring symester. I think thats easily attainable.
I think Forsch is saying without his scholarship he wouldn’t be able to attend Stanford because he wouldn’t be admited. I have to disagree with that.
I think all, but Wilson will end up signing. Jenkins and Cox will both be above slot, and very close to the deadline. Swaggery and Blair should both be slot, or near slot signs shortly after their team gets bounced from the CWS.
Top ten (eleven) if everyone signs:
1.) SP Shelby Miller
2.) 3B/2B Zack Cox
3.) OF Austin Wilson
4.) SP Lance Lynn
5.) RP Eduardo Sanchez
6.) SP Tyrell Jenkins
7.) RP Seth Blair
8.) 2B Daniel Descalo
9.) SS Pete Kozma
10.) SP Carlos Matias
11.) OF Daryl Jones
Last draft, the Padres selected OF Donovan Tate. Tate was represented by Boras and had to be bought off football. He got a huge bonus. Austin Wilson is not represented by an agent at this time and does not need to be bought away from football. He may not be quite as pricey as I supposed. Maybe $1.2MM plus Stanford tuition could get things done.
@rydeshelby: If he wasn’t as pricey as supposed, he would have been drafted in the first round. Don’t think 1.2 MM is gonna get the job done.
The fact of the situation is he either hasn’t decided if he wants to go to college or not. I’m sure he has a number in mind for what can keep him from college and a number he will sign for if he decides he wants to start his pro career. He or his family haven’t named this price or even spoke about it yet. I don’t t hink they know the price yet.
@Birds on The Bats:
Its like I am talking to my alter-ego. I have an MBA and am struggling to find much of anything….hmm….PHD sounds pretty good LOL
@nmstar: Teams avoided Wilson at high rounds because they did not think he was willing to take any offer. They figured he would take the free ride to Stanford. If he had promised to sign for $3MM, Wilson might have gone high. Because he did not set a high price, this suggests he is going to Stanford.
Unless Wilson excels at Stanford, he is not going to land $4MM in 2013. Brett Wallace excelled as a hitter and got $1.8MM. Even college juniors do not have a lot of bonus leverage (unless top of the draft talents like Strasburg, price, Prior). This helps the Cards. Wilson’s top bonus leverage may be now.
Former MLer John Mayberry had a projectable son who went to Stanford. He did not help his draft/bonus status 3 years later by having gone to Stanford. $2MM might land Wilson now, because he is probably not going to get $2MM in the 2013 draft. The Cards may not have to offer Wilson $4MM to sign now.
Mayberry got drafted at the bottom of the first round coming out of HS in 2002. He chose to go to Stanford. In 2005, he went 19th in the country and got a bonus of $1.525MM. Mayberry did not get Inoa, Wagner Mateo, Donovan Tate, Porcello money.
The Cards could offer Wilson $2MM (Mayberry’s bonus plus pay for 4 years of college). They probably need to offer at least this much. But they do not have to offer a lot more. If they offer $2.5MM, this would be $1MM more than Wilson may get after Stanford.
Most contracts today offer to pay for college afterwards, up to a certain amount (usually 40k). It is very standard in a contract, for even non-high draft picks out of high school. So adding that offer to Wilson isn’t going to change much of anything, even if offering to pay for Stanford.
I’ve personally known/talked to kids drafted in the 40′s rounds and had that in their contract offers (all ended up in school that I’ve known/talked to).
BTW – Anyone wanting a nice look at S. Blair and potentially Swagerty the rescheduled game at CWS against Clemson is getting ready to start on ESPNU if you have that channel and are at home. I will get a few innings in before heading to the airport.