After being drafted and signed in 2009, Robert Stock took the Appy league by storm hitting .322/.388/.550 in 165 PAs. He hit 7 homeruns in that short timespan and had 37.5% of his hits go for extra bases. In 2010, he’s hitting .203/.316/272 in 187 PAs.
This isn’t an indictment of Stock — well, I didn’t intend it that way at least — I’m just here to throw a little cold water on the hype you’ll see for 2010 draftees (Nick Longmire, I’m looking at you). These draftees may be the next great Cardinals player but please, don’t base that opinion on their performance at a short season club this year. The statistics are of questionable sample size and be wary of the age issue. The Cardinals are sending a lot of 2010 draftees to Batavia and Johnson City and the level of competition there is not on par with the full season teams in the Midwest League.
Nick Longmire might be an awesome player. He’s certainly hitting well so far — .400/.429/.920 — and it’s worth noting that he was (probably) drafted for his tools and not his college performance. That said, take his 2010 statistics and overall performance in context. It may not be as informative as you’d initially think.
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AZ, I agree about small sample sizes.
In general, we should be wary of any hitting stats in the Appy League. Yadier Molina slugged .405 at JC in 2001, and he’s never slugged higher than .392 since. (That was the same year Rick Ankiel slugged .638 as DH while trying to get his control back.)
Another reason why it’s hard to make any sense of short-season stats: If a guy gets off to a hot start, the Cards usually move him up to the next level. So the guys who accumulate 50-60 games on short-season teams in their draft year tend to be late-round picks who signed right away and then didn’t do anything spectacular to merit promotion.
OTOH, guys who get hot in their first couple of weeks move up, and have those small-sample-size numbers frozen for all eternity.
Thanks for ruining everyone’s weekend AZ….
I kid of course.
Let us all view Longmire’s start with cautious optimism.
It seems we’ve had more disappointments out of JC than Batavia. Probably due to age/experience issues which are less prevalent at Batavia.
Nick Longmire is the best hitting prospect in the history of the minor leagues, and I will fight anyone who says otherwise.
Silent George is right. I plan to be in Cooperstown on the day that Longmire, Stock and Vasquez are inducted.
The NY Pa league is harder for a hitter than the Appalachian, so Longmire’s beginning is more impressive than Stock last summer. The Cards will probably move Longmire up soon.
booked my plane ticket and hotel already. see you guys in 2038.