Checking in on some old friends
Posted on June 26th, 2010 by erik in Brett Wallace, Chris Perez, Clayton Mortensen, Jess Todd, Luke Gregerson, Mark Worrell, Shane PetersonAround this time last year some of us were bemoaning the departure of some of our favorite Fabergé eggs. Chris Perez and then later Jess Todd went to Cleveland for Mark DeRosa. Matt Holliday was acquired for the man we affectionately dubbed the Walrus, as well as Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson. That was four of our top ten prospects going into the 2009 season, and Peterson was in most publications’ top 15-20.
I wasn’t a big fan of either trade at the moment they happened, but I gradually sobered up from my prospect fanboyism and realized that the deals, in themselves, were perfectly justifiable even if it meant putting a pretty big dent in the farm system. So far, Luhnow has done a pretty good job re-stocking the system with some potential, assuming the tops picks of the draft sign and the Carlos Matias signing is OK’d.
I thought it would be fun just to check in with some of the players and see how they’re doing for their new clubs. This isn’t to pronounce a winner or a loser in the trade, just a status update.
The Walrus’ slash line of .293/.353/.503 for Triple-A Las Vegas looks pretty good, but can be deceiving. I’m not hear to bash on Brett, but there’s some red flags about his numbers. First of all, Las Vegas is a hitter’s heaven. Adjusting for park, Wallace’s line diminishes to .280/.341/.480. Still not shabby considering he was only drafted two years ago. What’s got to be a little disconcerting for Blue Jays’ fans is his plate discipline. Touted as a disciplined hitter coming out of college, Wallace has a .32 BB/K ratio and just a 6% walk rate. His MLE OPS is .667. Oh, and he’s officially moved over to 1B.
I like Wallace, I still think he’s a good prospect, but I’m not quite as confident that he’s some sort of future all-star.
Shane Peterson has a .300 wOBA for Double-A Midland and a nice, shiny .003 ISO.
At age 25, Clayton Mortensen is still doing his thing in the PCL. He has thrown 100 innings, is striking out about 7 batters per nine, walking 2.8 per and is still getting lots of groundballs. (53% GB%)
Through 125 innings of professional ball, the former “closer of the future” has pitched right around replacement level. His strikeout rate has dipped down to around 6 per nine for Cleveland this year, and he has a 5.31 xFIP. Ouch. Remember the Motte versus Perez debate? I was on Team Perez for the reason of secondary offerings or lack thereof for Motte. Bully for those who were on Team Motte.
Jess Todd probably won’t destroy us all after all, but for Triple-A Columbus he’s striking out a batter per inning with good control to boot. I feel sort of silly for thinking he ever might be a starter, but he still might be a valuable set-up man. He was pounded in his brief major league stint, his opponent’s BABIP was .411. I wouldn’t read too much into his struggles in the majors last year.
Who knows what will become of Seth Blair once he signs, but if he turns out to be a quality #3-4 starter like he’s projected, then Todd and Perez for a couple of bad months of DeRosa and Blair will look pretty good.
I think the deal that none of us bemoaned but are bemoaning now happened before last season started. If you ever want to get depressed, just look at what Luke Gregerson is doing to major league hitters now. I can’t discuss it, it’s too painful. Just look. He has become my new Dan Haren.
Mark “I’m a legend in my mind” Worrell is in Triple-A, still. He has a 4.36 FIP in 34.1 innings pitched.
I still like the futures for several of these players, but it’s funny to me, in a painful way, that the most valuable player out of them all, at least so far, is the guy we didn’t mind parting with, the player we thought of as a fungible middle reliever. Sure, we all liked his shiny minor league numbers quite a bit, but we had several relievers in the minors doing similar things. The players I liked least parting with are showing all sorts of wrinkles and may not end up amounting to much of anything.
Oh the joy of prospects.
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Todd never projected to be anything except for a Kyle McCellan-lite correct?
The Padres would like to have David Freese back too. If you combine the two deals it is a wash.
don’t let joe strauss hear you say that last paragraph
Of course, when the Cardinals traded Luke, they still had Perez, Todd, and others, and Gregerson was still in Springfield. Thinking back, I think the Robot didn’t like giving up Gregerson, though.
don’t be deceived by walrus’ numbers. he would already be the jays first baseman if they were able to unload overbay. and if these were games that really mattered for something i suspect they would have let him be to just mash. instead, having settled on him as their first baseman of the long-term future, they are preparing him for this role. the org admits that the focus they have placed on his defense has detracted from his hitting, but they prefer to work him a half-hour before games on his defense at first, and have noted he’s made 5 or 6 diving plays in the interim that he wouldn’t have made before. i think they are fairly satisfied, and are also working on his swing to get more backspin on the ball, for more carry/power. it’s pretty amazing then that he’s such a capable hitter that he can put up such numbers while focusing on these things. toronto drafted him out of high school, knows him well, and i think is very satisfied to have finally gotten their man. so we’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out when he comes up, not before september i suspect, and then a full year starting next. as for his plate discipline, i doubt that’s something lost, as he’s such a refined hitter, but rather the by-product of working on things and the org wanting him swinging. i’m pretty sure he could walk more if this were the plan.
blair is projected as a 3/4 starter? that’s good news. i thought he was definitely considered bullpen material.
is gregerson better this year than last on the road? i haven’t checked, but last year he had an era of around 8, iirc, on the road, and a sub-1 at home. perhaps he would have fared well in busch also, but i just question the effect petco has had on his numbers.
Blair projects as a 2 or 3, I’m sure he could be converted to the pen but no reason too with all the talented relievers we have in our system. It’s one of the reasons we are working to stretching out Joe Kelly and making him a starter.
@Andrew: great. didn’t know he was so highly regarded – thought he was more of a “safe” pick, so i was a bit disappointed. i’ve only seen him pitch once, though, and that on tv. a 2 or 3 on a good team is what i would’ve pegged pomeranz (although with high certainty of getting there), so i’m liking the pick of blair much more than before.
@Andrew: Where have you seen Blair projected as a 2 or 3? I think that’s an exceptionally optimistic projection. He may have shown flashes of that kind of dominance early in the season (BA says he sometimes hit 97 with his fastball), but his velocity was down and his fastball had flattened out later in the season.
Did you see him pitch in the CWS? I know it was just one outing following a long season, and it was probably his worst outing of the year, but the impression he left wasn’t encouraging. (FWIW, the one inning I saw of Swagerty was more impressive. I also liked the way John Gast of Florida State competed in the one inning I saw him pitch.)
Sorry meant to say 3 or 4, some have said Lance Lynn with better stuff. I did see him in the first game against Arkansas where he was dominant for 2 i nnings and the wheels fell off. I think the team likes him because he is another “bulldog” in the system. I’m not too worried about him as I think he will sign for slot and will be in Batavia or QC shortly. I think he moves more quickly than Kelly as conversion isn’t a factor. I agree he’s not a 2 for sure but in a 3-4 range.
The guy we should be missing right now is Mortenson. Could have saved us the return of Jeff Suppan. Of course Suppan has been surprisingly decent so far, and Hawksworth somehow pitched all right in his spot start yesterday, but Morrtenson looks like he’s going to be that solid 4th/5th type innings eater everyone expected despite getting rocked in the majors in his last stint.
Losing Gregerson really is a shame. He could be the best reliever in all of baseball right now and looks like he’ll stay that way for years barring injury.
@Sam:
Suppan cost us nothing. It was more than worth the gamble and he’s pretty much paid for himself already.
Suppan will cost us next year even if we do not want him. He has a 2 million buy out.
@Forsch31: I can’t tale much credit on Gregerson. I never would have predicted this. I’d like to think I picked up on him as a good middle relief prospect (there’s a comparison of relievers I did at one point but can’t find now) but beyond that I didn’t have any real issue with the trade.
I feel a little better about how I analyzed the Matt Holliday trade. I wrote this about Mortensen one month before the trade. This was my breakdown of the trade here and it was hit and miss. Brett Wallace was never my favorite prospect though I think he’ll be fine in the long run. I think I was in Springfield the weekend this took place much to my consternation.
@Chad: is that for sure? i’ve heard it both ways, that we’re on the hook for that, and that we’re not.
If Suppan was actually released before we picked him up (which I’m pretty sure he was) than we have no obligation towards his buyout.
Wallace has lost significant value since the cards traded him. At the time, there was still a chance he could play third. Now, it looks like it will be DH/1st base.
@zuke354: Wallace was never going to play third. It was a line the Cardinals repeated in one of their few well-done efforts to preserve a prospect’s value. He was destined for 1B from draft day.
I agree in fact I think Wallace was drafted as trade bait from day 1.