In an effort to be timely, I though I’d take a quick glance at the big name relief prospects in the high minors. Before we get into the numbers, I think the major league pen is fine despite two nasty outings in a row. These things happen when you have a closer who lives on his control and a somewhat crazy-ex catcher who throws pitches into the dugout on a bad play.

There is not currently a player in the pen that I can definitively and unquestionably point to and say, “What is he doing in the majors?!?!?”.  Generally, that statement is followed by an expletive but we’re a family friendly blog.  Part of what brought this post to fruition was a comment from the Cardinals broadcasting pair last night with regards to Kyle McClellan’s future. There seems to be some continued curiosity about his repretoire and converting to starting pitching.  It’s understandable considering that he has a full complement of pitches (FB, CH, CU, SL) but I’ve long had trepidation about Kyle McClellan.

In any event, the Cardinals continue to produce some interesting relief options in the minors. What follows is an admittedly incomplete list of players that may be ready in 2011 or 2012 for a shot at the bigs.

IP H/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB GB% FIP
Eduardo Sanchez 30.2 7.63 9.09 2.93 3.1 59 3.70
Fernando Salas 26.0 5.14 9.00 1.28 7.0 39 2.96
Adam Reifer 32.2 7.71 9.36 2.47 3.7 44 2.55
Blake King 41.2 6.04 10.5 6.04 1.7 43 3.88
Casey Mulligan 31.0 8.61 13.7 4.30 3.2 50 2.02
Francisco Samuel 14.2 6.75 12.2 7.97 1.5 55 5.25

Sanchez remains the player with the best combination of upside and likelihood to reach it in my opinion. He’s undersized for a reliever but threw 70 innings in the minors last season and seems slated for 60+ again this year. His fastball sits mid-90s touching 97 and he has a plus slider that he’ll throw for strikes.  His command is above average as is his control.  He’s combining superb strikeouts with groundballs — the best recipe for dominance.

If you recall, Salas is someone we’ve had on the radar here for a couple seasons now. His 2009 efforts were derailed by a finger injury but he’s been tremendous in Memphis thus far this year. He’s more of a control pitcher than the others on this list featuring a low-90s fastball and a breaking ball that he’ll locate around the zone. His stuff is still above average but it’s not on par with Sanchez; Salas’s command and feel for pitching is more advanced though. He’s a solid middle reliever though I wouldn’t bill him as more than a setup man in part because of his predilection for flyballs.

Reifer seems to have taken a significant step forward.  The perplexing stat in years past has been H/9 for Reifer who got touched up far more often than his stuff suggested he should. This year he’s show the same stuff but hitters aren’t making as much contact. A mid-90s fastball and a plus slider, it’s too early to tell if he’s turned the corner for good but he’s not far removed from the majors if he has.

King has improved but the command and control still isn’t up to par for me.  He’s lingered at the tail end of prospect lists for years based on the promise in pure stuff. He started out 2010 fantastically but the control has deteriorated as the season went on. Tell me if you’ve heard this one before: He’s a fastball, slider guy. He’ll work up in the zone with his fastball, which can get him in trouble. Outside of Samuel, he’s the least polished pitcher on this list.

Mulligan is an ex-catcher with a sinking fastball, a plus changeup and a questionable breaking pitch. The changeup makes him particularly effective against lefthanders. His career split (in FIP) between lefties and righties in the minors is negligible.  Mulligan struggled briefly after his promotion to Springfield but he’s settled in nicely and continues to rack up big strikeouts.

Samuel makes this list out of name recognition more than anything else.  With a fastball in the high 90s, he’s been troubled by shoulder injuries this season, which has impacted his already poor control. The pure stuff is the best of anyone on the list but the command is easily the worst.

The Cardinals will have some mid-level relievers transition to arbitration in the next few years and some veterans leave.  Ryan Franklin likely departs after 2011. Kyle McClellan and Jason Motte will both become arbitration eligible in 2012.  If you’re looking for a trade trip for the Cardinals — and it’s HIGHLY unlikely they’ll do something like this — look in the major league pen.  While these are all major league caliber relievers, they aren’t irreplaceable. Fernando Salas is ready right now and Sanchez could be called up in a pinch though he’s more like a 2011 ETA.  Still if the Cardinals want to make a move and retain a cheap pen, they can do it.  They’ve done quite well at finding right handed relievers in their farm system.

14 Responses to “The Farm System: Major Relief?”
  1. GDM says:

    developing/having good cheap arms isn’t the problem for the Cards. using them the way they should be used is the problem. TLR & Dave continue to scratch their heads in confusion when DeWitt&Co have handed them players from the farm. their impatience with the kids & continued pressure to have proven veteran presence on the club is the problem. until that problem is resolved, the team will continue to struggle

  2. Andrew says:

    I wouldn’t say the lack of effective use of the young guys is THE problem with the team. Miles has been a good 25th player. Winn has hit decent but played the field poorly. I think Jay has proven that he deserves to stay.

  3. dk says:

    @Andrew: Miles has been a good 25th player? It’s not how well he has or hasn’t done, it’s the fact that there are younger guys who are just better than him, period. Even at Miles’ best, Greene and Gotay are better both defensively and offensively when at their worst.

  4. Andrew says:

    I want Greene on the team. Miles is much better though at staying sharp when he only gets occasional at bats. He may also be the clubhouse guy that people say we are missing. Miles is what he is and he’s not hurting the team.

  5. Andrew says:

    That being said It would be a crime if Jay doesn’t spend the rest of the year in STL. He has performed he has the talent and he never looks overmatched.

  6. jimmy_joe says:

    The elephant in the room is left-handed. (Left-footed?) There are no lefties in the discussion. Perhaps we need to draft left-handed catchers so that when they inevitably convert to pitchers, we’ll have a deep supply of Loogies.

  7. cardzfanbub says:

    Great rundown…as always! I don’t follow the minors nearly as much as a couple of years ago…time doesn’t allow. One really minor thing…I’m pretty sure McClellan will be eligible for arby next season. I think he was up all of 08-09, and this year will make three full years.

  8. JC says:

    @cardzfanbub: That is correct. McClellan is Arb eligible in 2011 and not 2012.

  9. cariocacardinal says:

    Whatever happened to McClellen as the 6th starter idea? I wonder if he feels betrayed by TOny and Dunc on this issue?

  10. CRay says:

    @cariocacardinal: They’re again talking about McClellan as a possible starter for next year, since I seriously doubt Penny will be back. Hawk could back to the long man (or be the starter) or be replaced by Otto, and Salas could replace McClellan. But the general thrust of az’s entry is very sound – a lot of folks are coming along that will provide (at the least) some good trade bait – and az didn’t mention Otto (who many see as a future reliever). There are also a lot of other folks further down in the system such as Kelly, Swagerty, and others. I think the bullpen is one of the main places the Cards will save money if they re-sign Pujols.

  11. cardzfanbub says:

    @CRay: Depends on what you mean by save money. The bullpen in total is making about $8M this year, and the only post-arby players currently slotted for a BP spot next year would be Franklin at $2.75M, Miller at $2M and KMac at ?. By the time Franky’s contract expires Motte and KMac will all be making as much or more than he was. Will likely still have two FA lefties, so I don’t see the pen getting any cheaper. Of course, I would argue we are already saving significantly more money in the pen than most teams. Many of which are paying their closer more than our entire bullpen is bringing in.

  12. cardzfanbub says:

    @cardzfanbub: To add…the places we will have to save money will be in letting post-arby and free agent players walk. This means Penny, Larue, Lopez, Reyes, Winn and perhaps Ludwick this offseason, Skip, Franklin, Ryan and Miller the next. I didn’t include Suppan and Miles, as hopefully they’re gone LONG before the offseason…almost didn’t include Winn for the same reason. Obviously we can’t let all of these guys go, especially the MIF and lefty relief will have to be retained/replaced. Is Jay auditioning for Ludwick’s spot next year with a bench of Craig/Mather?
    Probably ought to get back to MiLB now.

  13. CRay says:

    @cardzfanbub: I don’t really disagree with you. I agree that Ludwick and Penny will be gone soon, among the bigger names, and I think Carp will probably be gone after next year. My point is that the Cards won’t sign free agents for the bullpen, with the exception of some moderate-priced lefties, and will continue to keep their overall costs down by filling most of the pen with home-grown products. So I’m not saying the expenses of the bullpen will fall a lot (though they may decline a small amount in a few years), but this is a place the Cards will “hold the line” (and the numerous prospects make this possible) in order to pay Albert’s coming salary.

  14. Andrew says:

    Hawksworth is doing well in his audition to the rotation next year. Doubt we let Ludwick go this year. Penny is as good as gone.

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