I get e-mails or comments on occasion asking me about players and why they haven’t signed yet or if I think they will. Occasionally I hear rumblings by about a certain player but more often than not, there’s just not that much to relay. These things take time and they’re very fluid negotiations. Via BJ Rains, we get this tweet:
Luhnow not excited about talks with Zack Cox, has talked with Austin Wilson: http://tinyurl.com/33denll
To start with, the tweet is misleading. Read the exact quote from Luhnow in the article (which has good info by the way):
Asked if he was confident that the Cardinals and Cox would be able to meet in the middle on a contract before the August 16 deadline, Cardinals’ vice president of scouting and player development Jeff Luhnow didn’t seem overly enthused.
“No because our first selection was part available to us because of some desires that other clubs weren’t willing to even consider,” Luhnow said. “I think that one could be a lengthy process. …We knew that there was a disconnect between what most clubs probably had as a value and what the player was stating that he was wanting to come out as a sophomore, especially elite players at the top of the draft, so we’ll just have to wait and see.”
The key is the lead. Luhnow may not be confident that they’ll meet in the middle, but that’s a far cry from being “not excited” about being able to sign Cox. There’s some liberal interpretation being used in my opinion. The reality is that Luhnow is wise to take a hard line for two reasons: 1) Austin Wilson is great leverage until he firmly says ‘no’ and 2) Cox would be drafted lower in the 2011 draft. Luhnow and the Cardinals have an unusual amount of leverage over the draft-eligible sophomore and I expect them to use it forcefully, as they should.
There’s some updates on Seth Blair, Jordan Swaggerty & Tyrell Jenkins. Also some words on Austin Wilson. I remain unreasonably optimistic that Wilson will sign and that the Cardinals will open up my least favorite euphemism “DeWallet” to get that deal done. Wilson would instantly be a top 5 prospect in the system given his projection, current skills and body type.
To summarize, I expect the Cardinals to sign Blair and Swaggerty without issue. Zach Cox & Austin Wilson will drag things out to the end but one or both will likely sign. Tyrell Jenkins is more of an enigma to me and I’d not be surprised by a yes or no decision from him.
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Then again, they could always blow away Wilson with an offer and take that 26th compensation pick in next year’s draft and let Cox walk. I wouldn’t be mad at that.
Thanks for the overview, azru!
What’ll it take to sign Austin Wilson, in your opinion? At the same $$, would you rather have him or Zack?
I kind of liked what I had read about Chad Oberacker (19th round) but I’d guess he’s not signing if he hasn’t by now.
Love the strategy of drafting Wilson in the 12th round as a backup plan for Cox negotiations. Would be even more pumped if we got both Cox and Wilson.
i still can’t see Wilson signing, i hope i’m wrong, but it’s going to take stupid money for him to change his mind, and i’m just not convinced he’s 1. worth it & 2. going to change his mind about going to Stanford.
this stuff with Cox is like you said Az just posturing & a negotiation ploy. i’ll be shocked & outraged by both parties if he’s not signed. there’s no logical reason why he shouldn’t sign.
@Bob: Austin Wilson will take first round money at probably more than $3M. If not seemingly committed to Stanford, I would have expected him to be a top 15 pick.
The second question is harder. Cox is without question the more likely player to be productive at the majors. He’s far more polished as a hitter, has been seen against better competition and is closer to the majors. He could start in AA without issue, imo — but I don’t expect the Cardinals to start him there if he does sign. Wilson is much more raw but has, arguably, a higher ceiling. Wilson has the phyiscal prowess to be an elite right fielder. Cox is more of a very good infielder.
At the same dollars, I take Cox because he’s a safer bet for return on investment. It’s a boring, probability-based decision but I also think it’s the right one.
Supposing that Jenkins were not to sign would we get a compensation pick for our compensation pick?
Cox has no reason not to sign. He was the 26th pick, but will get money higher than that. if he get’s money that is comparable to a top 10-15 pick, why wouldn’t he sign now? Blair/Swaggerty, no problem. Jenkins will be tougher, but if you read on the Baylor sites, thy expect him to sign, they think he is a better baseball player than a qb. Wilson is encouraging in that he is talking. It will take a lot of money, but they have it since they didn’t sign Mateo. I’m just as interested in why Bibona/Lyons have not signed yet. I believe both were seniors and probably are getting low balled by the Card’s. for those who aren’t impressed by Bibona, I have read reports comparing him to a Tom Glavine type pitcher. obviously we don’t know how he will pan out, but I wouldn’t mind having a Glavine type in the system.
@azruavatar: “At the same dollars, I take Cox because he’s a safer bet for return on investment.” Maybe, but aren’t the Cardinals constantly being criticized for going for “safe” picks with unspectacular ceilings? Given that the rest of this draft (except for Jenkins) looks like “safe” guys, I can see a strong argument for rolling the dice on a serious high-ceiling guy like Wilson.
Really, though, as long as we wind up with one of them, I’ll be happy, whichever one it is. No talent at the level of either of the two was likely to be available this low in the draft. Two were. _Carpe(nter) diem_!
At the Scout.com site two days ago, Walton interviewed Luhnow, and asked if there is “any hope” regarding a possible signing of Wilson. Luhnow said Wilson and his family have not made a decision and they and the Cards are still meeting. He said they have an ongoing dialogue, and that if Wilson and his family had decided to not sign, and were not at considering to sign, that dialogue would have been over already. Luhnow’s response was very low key, and the sense I had was that he was trying not to say anything that sounded too encouraging for fear that the Wilson family would react negatively, but that the possibility to sign him was still there.
That possibility was encouraging to me.
PS I would appreciate any info on the status of the unsigneds beyond the top two rounds and Wilson.
I think Jenkins signs, he mentioned he wanted to get his baseball career started but he also wanted the summer off. After playing 3 sports non stop for his whole HS career he was looking for a break. I’m sure he wants over slot but having a football scholarship we can spread out the bonus. Cox asked for the moon and I suspect that he will drop his price because he doesn’t really gain anything financially from holding out. Project Prospect has an article on Cox that worries me saying that he has been a huge swing and miss power guy or a high average contact singles hitter but never both at the same time, because he had motified his swing so much between his freshman and sophmore. In order to get a good balance of power and contact he may have to rework his swing again. I would probably rather have Wilson’s upside because I think he’s fairly certain to be a very good player as his makeup is out of this world. Makes me really feel that he has a low chance of busting completely.
The odd guys are Bibona and Lyons, college seniors. They have no leverage. If they do not sign, they can be redrafted next June and get an even lower bonus. What will that achieve? They are not doing themselves any favors by giving up on the 2010 season, just reducing their future earnings potential. They are poorly advised.
As of this morning, BA is showing that Bibona signed with the Cards for a $45,000 bonus.
Bibona signed! I’m thinking of the song by The Knack, “My Sharona.”
Ooh my little left one, lefty one.
When you gonna give me some time, Bibona?
Ooh you make me hyperventilate, hyperventilate.
Gun it comin’ off the line Bibona
Never gonna stop, give it up.
Such a crafty mind. Always yell it up for the pitch
of the Glavine kind. My my my i yi woo. M M M My Bibona…
@jimmy_joe: Well done.
good to hear Bibona signed. Jimmy Joe, I wish I were that creative…..I think.
It was reported Bibona declined an offer of $115 thou from the Cards last summer. He ended up losing $70,000 in bonus by returning for a final season of college ball. This usually happens when a college junior chooses to stay in school.
@azruavatar: You offer two opinions: 1) Cox is at risk of being drafted lower next June. While yes Cox could get hurt or slump, its not a large risk, as with a pitcher. Cox is in a pretty good negotiating position as a sophmore, while it may go down to the last hour.
2) Cox is supposed to lower his bonus, because if not, the Cards will sign Wilson instead. This must be based on the idea there is a limited budget. I dont see it. Wilson is no leverage over Cox. The Cards have enough money to sign both, its just a matter of what each young man decides to do. These are independant negotiations. If we sign Wilson, there is still money for Cox. Or if we do not sign Wilson, there is money for Cox, but Cox still may not sign, if he wants more than the Cards believe he is worth. Its a matter of finding a mutally acceptable number.
Az, why do you think they are independent negotiations? Even if some Cardinal official said that I wouldn’t believe him unequivocally.
The primary leverage the Cardinals have over Cox is that next year’s draft is chock full of talent, meaning that no matter what he does, there is a chance that he’ll be drafted later and then he’ll have even less leverage to get any kind of over slot deal. If Cox doesn’t sign, it’ll be a much bigger negative for him than for the Cardinals.
I also feel that Blair and Swagerty should not that tough signs. I expect them to be signed prior to the deadline…maybe later this month. I still feel in the long run that we will get Cox signed at the deadline and it will be a compromise on both sides as it usually is. Now the kicker is how will the Wilson negotiations go? How much are we willing to offer and will it get the job done? I am still not too optimistic but it sound like there is a slightly better shot then there was on draft day…thats a very good sign. I’m sure we will hear more on the tough signs once we get into August.
@rydeshelby: 1) The 2011 draft class is tons better than 2010. That’s while he’ll be drafted lower, not because of a slump or being hurt but because there’s better talent next year. 2) I think you’re being naive if you think the Cardinals aren’t leveraging the possibility of signing another first round talent against Cox. They may not be explicit about it (and I agree there is budget room for both) but when they’ve got another first round talent that they can sign, it makes it easier to walk away from the Cox negotiations.
@cariocacardinal: I don’t think I’ve ever said they are completely independent. If I have, shame on me.
@azruavatar: Why would you think the Cards want to walk away from Cox negotiations?
@rydeshelby: I didn’t say that they want to walk away from the negotiations with Cox.
@rydeshelby: I think what azru is saying if they feel that Cox’s party isn’t willing to budge and they feel that they can sign Wilson it gives them justification to walk about from Cox and take the comp pick for next and still feel like they got a 1st Rd pick from the 2010 draft. He is pointing out they have options.
watched a bit of sec baseball and wasn’t that impressed with cox in the field. see him as a dh or 1st base waiting to happen. can’t recall the name, but i thought their center fielder was their most impressive player.
Eibner is going to be a stud…..I was hoping we would take him at 50 after taking Jenkins at 46
@JC: Cox’s rep floated $6MM before the draft; teams thought this overpriced, since Cox is not Harper or Wieters. The Cards drafted Cox in case he is willing to settle for a saner bonus. If not, Cox can stay in college and we collect our a compensatory draft pick next June. 25th in the draft is about $1.1MM. Luhnow has signalled the Cards are prepared to go higher. They could bid $2MM now, offer $2.2MM 5 minutes before the signing period ends, let Cox decide. Wilson does not enter the picture, anymore than any of the other 50 draftees.
@rydeshelby: I get what your saying…but it appeared you were missing the point of what azru was saying so I was just explaining. If you offer $2M and the Cox Reps say they want minimum of $4M then your not even in the same ballpark. Ultimately as long as you put a reasonable offer on the table it is up to the Cox Reps to accept or not…but if your $2M apart I think its safe to say they won’t be counting on him singing and MIGHT go more aggressively at Wilson in the 11th Hour. That is a potential scenario so you can’t discount it. But I also think they have a potential shot at signing both Cox and Wilson IF Wilson is willing to sign at all. So its not one or the other IMO…but if Cox’s negotiations go sour they could use some of the savings on adding more money to Wilson’s offer to further entice him.
@JC: The Cards are aggressive at signing draftees though also generally fit in with MLB bonus guidance. IIRC, Wilson is not a football player, so they cannot transfer Cox’s millions to Wilson. The Cards will figure out a competitive offer for Wilson, based on his situation alone. Maybe its $1.3MM plus college tuition?
If Cox is linked to another player, its probably not Wilson, but unknown athletes in Latin America. If Cox does not sign, the Cards could invest more in signing Latin kids this upcoming fall or winter.
Not sure the best place to post this but apparently we signed 47 Rd LHP Justin Wright out of VA Tech. Fairly rare to see such a late rounder signing so late in the process. But apparently he wanted to pitch in the Cape to show that he is worth a bigger bonus. Guess it all worked out as the bonus was not revealed but they met in the middle.