Shelby Miller ALERT!
As many of you probably saw in yesterday’s thread, Austin Wilson was at Busch Stadium yesterday on a recruiting trip that would put USC to shame! For those who aren’t up to date on Wilson, he was ranked 5th overall in this draft class by Keith Law back in February. As BJ Rains says, he’s mentioned in the same manner that Jason Heyward was not too long ago. The Cardinals were able to get this guy in the 12th round and by all means, if he intends to play baseball they should offer him out of slot money if he’s on the fence.
Batavia 4, Williamsport 3 (11 innings)
- Mike O’Neil and Colin Walsh went 2-for-4 with an RBI.
- Audry Perez went 2-for-5 with a double.
- Adam Melker went 2-for-4 with a double and RBI
- Yunier Castillo went 2-for-4 with a double and RBI.
- Andrew Moss gave up 4H and 2ER in 4IP. He walked 1 and struckout 3.
- Anthony Ferrera came into the game and didn’t face a batter.
- Christopher Corrigan had 3K against 1H in 3IP.
- Keith Butler gave up the lead in the 8th on 2H and 1BB. He was tagged with 1ER.
- Matthew North picked up the win with 2 IP, yielding 1H and 1K.
- Jose Rada earned the save with 1H 1IP performance.
Palm Beach 3, Brevard County 1
- D’Marcus Ingram went 2-for-4 with a R.
- Charles Cutler hit a double.
- Nico Vasquez went 1-for-3 with a RBI.
- Alex Castellanos went 4-for-4 with a double and RBI.
- Xavier Scruggs went 1-for-4 with a R
- Colt Sedbrook went 1-for-3.
- Kevin Thomas pitched 7 strong innings scattering 5 H and 1 ER to go along with his 5K.
- Ramon Delgado had 1K in 1IP for the hold.
- David Carpenter picked up the save despite giving up a H, BB and K.
Springfield 3, Tulsa 5
- Chris Swauger went 2-for-5 with a 2B.
- Curt Smith and Andrew Brown both picked up hits.
- Pete Kozma went 1-for-4 with a RBI.
- Jose Garcia went 4-for-4 with a 2B and RBI.
- David Kopp took the loss giving up 5 R(2ER) over 6.1IP. He struckout 6, walked 3 and was touched for 6 H.
- Jason Buursma threw 1.2 IP of 1 H relief.
- Francisco Samuel struck out 2 and gave up a H in 1IP.
Riverbandits 10, Bowling Green 0
- Devin Goodwin went 2-for-4 with 2 2B and 3 RBI
- Alan Ahmady went 2-for-5 with a 2B, 2R and RBI.
- Matt Adams went 2-for-5 with a HR and 3RBI.
- Frederick Parejo hit a solo HR.
- C.J. Beatty hit a 2-R HR.
- Shelby Miller, or as I like to call him “future Diamondback Shelby Miller“, pitched 5 strong innings, walking 2 and striking out 8(!). He yielded 4H.
- Chris Notti had 1K and 1H in 1IP.
- Dean Kiekhefer Comission gave up 3 H, 1 BB in 2IP. He struckout 5 of his 6 outs!
- James Rapoport went 3-for-5 with a RBI.
- Adron Chambers went 1-for-4 with 1 R.
- Allen Craig’s days probably are numbered with Ryan Ludwick going 2-for-2 with a 2B, his 2nd HR and 3 RBI.
- Joe Mather went 2-for-5 with a 3B.
- Donovan Solano went 3-for-4 with 2 R.
- Evan MacLane pitched 6 innings, giving up 7 H, 3 ER and 6 K.
- Eduardo Sanchez got 1 out, but gave up 1 H, 1 ER, and 1BB.
- Rich Rundles picked up a hold by getting 2 outs and only walking 1.
- Mike MacDougal gave up a solo HR in his 1 IP to take a blown save.
- Josh Kinney picked up the save with 1 K in 1IP.
Johnson City 9, Elizabethton 8
- Greg Garcia went 2-for-4 with a 2B and 2 RBI.
- Oscar Taveras went 3-for-5.
- Phillip Cerreto went 2-for-4 with a 2B and 2 RBI.
- Romulo Ruiz hit a 2B.
- Juan Castillo went 2-for-4 with a 3B.
- Virgil Hill, Cesar Valera and Reggie Williams all went 1-for-4 with 1 R.
- Charllan Jiminez was roughed up for 10 H and 7 ER in 4 IP. He struckout 5.
- Francisco Guzman struckout 3 in 3 IP, with 1 BB.
- Christopher Patterson picked up the win with 1 IP of 2 H, 1 ER, 3 K baseball.
- Hector Corpas picked up the save with 1 IP of 2 H, 2 K pitching.
Entries (RSS)
Okay, I’ll say it: I was all for trading the Walrus, because IMO he was drafted to be traded. No true position and not a Cardinal-type pick in any respect because of defensive limitations. And in return we got a big bat in his prime who we locked up on a long-term deal. But Shelby Miller? A potential #1 or #2? Who has 89Ks in 60 IPs at the age of 19? Losing him would hurt my heart, especially since we don’t have any of our top five picks from the ’10 draft locked up yet.
Actually, the fifth pick (Sam Tuivalala) is signed. Your point remains though; I wouldn’t trade Shelby either.
PS — This cool site has the full list of Cardinals draft picks and who has/hasn’t signed. http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2010xteam.php?team=1019
I think Shanky was including the supplemental picks into our “top 5 picks”, but yeah, the highest drafted player to sign is the 5th rounder.
Actually Sam Tuivalala was our 3rd Rd pick (5 total pick of ours). With Cox, Blair, Jenkins and Swagerty being the 4 picks before him that haven’t signed.
alright, thanks for the clarification. Longmire was our #5 pick, wasn’t he?
Fifth round, seventh pick.
OP probably meant top five picks as in – Cox, Jenkins, Blair, Swagerty and Wilson.
This is exactly what I meant when I said “top five picks”. . .probably should have spelled out Cox, Blair, Jenkins, Swagerty and Wilson and said our top five talents. My bad.
Wilson took BP today and was hitting homeruns into and over the visitors bullpen and ended his session with a home run to Big Mac land. Alot of talk about an Oswalt deal. I don’t believe it will take Miller and Oswalt and the Cardinals have all the leverage while Houston doesnt have any. Future Redbirds should prepare to lose some of our prospects in the near future. I’m betting on Lynn, Hamilton/Craig and Jones or Kozma. The trade would be worth it if Miller isn’t involved.
Agreed. If we can get Oswalt without giving up Miller it would be worth it. I just hope your right, because from what i read on the Cards site it sounds like Miller is probably the primary piece.
I don’t think that would make sense. Oswalt is in decline, has a pretty big contract, and does not have the traditional body type for a long career. If they’re giving up Miller, the Astros had better be paying Oswalt’s salary — all of it. Boston-Lugo style.
Even without Miller, it just doesn’t make sense financially for the Cards to take on that contract (unless the FO knows something about future budgets that we don’t; like George Steinbrenner’s ghost taking over DeWitt’s body).
I thought I read that Miller is not eligible to be traded until one year after he signed, which would not be until after the deadline has passed. Anyone else read/hear this? I thought it was Goold who wrote it.
It is not worth giving up Miller for Oswalt. I would for Haren, but I don’t like the money for the Haren deal. Unless we could unload Lohse in the off-season, that locks up a lot of money into the pitching staff.
I would feel better trading lesser pieces to Houston for Myers. We don’t need aces. We need arms that can save the bullpen.
He would have to be a PTBNL and then once Aug 15th or 16th comes around he goes to whatever team would trade him to.
Are you at the game and say him taking BP or did you read it somewhere? Just curious how you know. If you read it please include a link.
Don’t know where Andrew read it but here is a link
http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100722&content_id=12515048¬ebook_id=12515050&vkey=notebook_stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl
The Wilson story about today’s BP is the second one on the page.
I love Oswalt (can you imagine a 1-4 of Carp, Wainwright, Oswalt, Garcia?), but I would not include Shelby Miller in the deal. Things would be different if Oswalt was 4 years younger or the Cardinals had more room in their payroll. Any combination of prospects not including Miller would be fine by me.
Great to see Ludwick back on track. If he leaves as a FA can we offer arbitration and get picks for him? He should be a type A.
Trading Miller for Oswalt would be a huge loss. Miller for Haren would still be tough because of the money Haren is getting and how that might hurt our ability to sign Pujols. But at least Haren is going to be good for a long time.
Either way I would like to keep Miller.
Give A. Wilson whatever he wants. We need a big name bat in your system that has actual power. I hate picking all these guys with 15-20 home run power.
Luddy won’t be a FA until after 2011, so we’d have to keep him through next season for any compensation picks.
Also, I don’t think anyone can just assume Haren will be good for a long time… heck, we thought that with Mulder and it backfired on us. Personally, I think the better bet is to go for Oswalt, as his desire to get out of Houston and his statements that he would possibly restructure his contract for the Cards, makes him probably easier to obtain for less (hopefully). When dealing with the Dbacks, they will absolutely have all the leverage.
Could someone give a possible future projection for Miller’s career? I am just thinking about where he would be, starting at AA next year? Or does he start in high A, then mid season as a 20 year old go to AA. Then in 2012 start in AA and move up to AAA and get a September call up.
Obviously we have to assume he doesn’t get hurt to make any projection like this.
Just wanting a better idea of how everyone sees his career going forward.
Well 1 of 2 things will happen IMO. He gets promoted to PB this year and maybe ends the year there. Or they say we want to challenge him for 3 or 4 starts to end the year and he gets shot up to AA just to see better competition. This is all assuming he keeps dominating QC BTW. I see him starting 2011 in PB to get going and if all goes well a semi-quick promotion to Springfield where he spends the entire year. He then starts off 2012 in Memphis and then it all depends on opportunities in the 2nd half of the year if he gets a shot. I then see him fighting for a rotation spot in ST for the 2013 season. I think that is very reasonable and not rushing the young man.
Carpenter’s contract is done in 2011 (I can’t see them picking up his $15 M option unless it is in 2-year deal).
Looking out at the rotation now:
-Wainwright
-
- Garcia
- Lohse
-
Shelby’s going to have a shot, if he continues to dominate of making that rotation either in 2012 or 2 months into 2012.
I don’t see them rushing him like that and I see Lynn in the rotation as early as next year. You are also not taking into account a veteran SP that we will most likely sign in the offseason to a 1 year deal or someone we might get in a trade this year that has a contract for next year. I don’t think you can look at the current staff and how their contract plays out for the next few years alone…you have to say who else in the system will get a chance and take the possibility of signing or trading for a starter. This along with the fact that I doubt they rush Miller makes me believe he MIGHT get a cup sometime in the 2012 season but more realistically he gets an opportunity to win a job to start the 2013 season.
I think by ST in 2012, he’ll be better than Lynn. Does that mean he gets the shot? No. But I also do take into account a veteran signing. That would delay him the 2 months he would need for arbitration leverage.
So a veteran signing would pitch for 2 months and then we dump him? I don’t get what your saying. Regardless…you think 2012 and I think 2013. I will say I hope not 2012 as he will need plenty of adjustment time to go from any one of the A ball affiliates to AA and then should get a decent amount of time in Memphis before getting the call. That’s just my opinion though.
Sydney Ponson and Brad Penny both lasted 2 months as FA signings. Todd Wellemeyer and Kip Wells shouldn’t have lasted as long as they did.
I don’t see Miller getting a shot at the beginning of 2012. He would only be 21. There isn’t much point in using him that young unless we are desperate or he is not even challenged at AAA. I think he will be in the rotation is 2013 if he continues to perform as he is so far.
I predict the Cards don’t pick up the option after 2011 but instead resign Carp to a two-three year deal that is much less in $ with maybe some deferred money. Carp is at the point in his career where taking deferred money makes sense. He is close to retirement and would actually save money in taxes by taking it later. Plus it keeps him on a team he likes and allows the Cards to spend more money to stay competitive.
We might see Matias by 2013 if we are lucky =)
Brian Walton tweeted that we released Gary Daley & Arquimedes Nieto has been promoted. I see nothing wrong with that move
The only thing I see “wrong” with it is that it took too long to happen. The handwriting has been on the Daley wall for some time.
As for Miller, one thing to remember is the “Injury Nexus,” the well-documented increased risk of injury that young pitchers face until they’re about 25, beyond which the risk decreases (although of course it never falls to zero). Shelby is still quite young and won’t get through the Nexus for some years. If it is intended — and I sure hope it is — that he be part of the franchise deep into the coming decade, managing his work load for the next three or four years seems important, and I doubt if that is consistent with having him on a major-league roster in 2012.
On the other hand, if he IS going to become part of a trade for Oz or Haren or anyone else, then ride ‘im hard, put ‘im away wet, and maximize the chances that he’ll get broken once he arrives at the trade partner and therefore won’t come back to haunt us the way Haren has. I jest, I jest, but the Haren lesson is hard to forget….
The Haren situation was far different and more difficult to swallow IMO. I don’t know if anyone truly thought he’d be as good as he’s been. No one saw this coming. All indications were that he’d top out as a #3 arm, but never ace quality like he’s shown signs of in the years since he’s left.
As for Miller, we all know his ceiling and no one would be surprised if he becomes an ace or #2. You pretty much know what you’re losing.
Very good point about the injury probabilities with young fireballers. It would be an interesting study to identify the young pitchers of the last 30 years or so who fit MIller’s profile i.e. young, high draft choice, great “stuff” and comparisons to the great ones who did and did not have good Major League careers. My suspicion is that it’s a low percentage and an even lower one for those who had great success for the team they came up with.
Please tell me you are joking with your last sentence. I’ll hold back other comments until I know if it was sarcastic or not.
Ok didn’t read the last sentence sorry. Phew.
Appears D. Hooker has been promoted to PB as well.
good … I can start to get on my next release bandwagon. open to suggestions.
Luhnow said in an interview that he wanted to keep the QC team together for the playoffs there, so Miller may not move up. also, you can’t reasonably expect Miller to handle 150-200 innings by then. they are giving him breaks now in the season, he had 3 time off early, and I read they plan on doing the same in the 2nd half. If you plan on gradually increasing his workload season by season, which only makes sense, I don’t see how he can be in StL by 2012. maybe, but I think more likely ’13 is where you will see him.
Jayson Stark at ESPN is reporting that the Astros and Cards are talking about two young players on the major league roster. Could well be two from Greene, Jay, Craig, Hawksworth and Motte. He didn’t say if that would all that would go to Houston.
I’m fine with trading any of the young players on our current roster not named Colby Rasmus. They can have any of Ryan, Greene, Jay, Craig (on roster yesterday), Hawksworth, Motte etc. They can have Lance Lynn. They can have Walters, Samuel, Salas, Sanchez et al.
Just no Miller, and obviously no Rasmus.
And Mitchell Boggs as well. They can have him too.