It’s hard for me to wrap my head around this, so I will try and be objective as I can. My initial reaction is Mozeliak got totally fleeced on this deal, to put it nicely, but let’s take a look.
First the prospect: Nick Greenwood is 22 years old, left-handed and has a 6 K/9 in the Midwest League. He was a 14th round pick in last year’s draft. He did not make Baseball America’s Top 30 Padres list last season, for what it’s worth, and it’s unlikely he rates very highly in our system either by seasons end. He has fringe stuff, save for a decent change-up, but he has good command. He’s a C grade pitcher, arms of his ilk are a dime a dozen.
So forget the player coming over providing much of anything. What this really signals is a huge vote of confidence for a couple of former Future Redbirds: Jon Jay, and I’d throw Allen Craig in there as well. Mozeliak has to feel that Jay and Craig can match Ryan Ludwick’s production for the rest of the season. Jay has been a man on fire so far and LaRussa no longer has to take away at-bats from Colby Rasmus (good news!) or Ludwick.
Now obviously, the Cardinals know Jay cannot sustain hitting like a mad man for the rest of the season. He has a crazy .446 BABIP this season, so he’s due for some regression. What does it take to replace Ludwick? ZiPS projects Luddy to post a .363 wOBA the rest of the season. Assuming a couple runs of defense and 250 plate appearances, that’s about a win of production (1.3 WAR, to be exact) of production to fill. Can a Jon Jay/Allen Craig platoon match that? I don’t have the projections in front of me, but I doubt it. Considering Craig hits lefties, and Jay continues some semblance of good-hitting, a .340-.345 wOBA seems completely reasonable. That’s about a 5 run gap left to fill.
Well, Westbrook fills that gap. Westbrook projects around a 4.45 FIP for the rest of the season. Over 50 innings that equals 6 runs. Suppan is a replacement level pitcher, so Westbrook is 6 runs better than Suppan. The Cardinals barely improved, if at all, but here’s where salary comes to play.
Westbrook’s salary will be covered by Cleveland. Ludwick is due around $2 mil the rest of the season, if not a little more, and he’s going into his last year of arbitration next year. He would probably make $8 or so mil in arbitration. If the team deemed that pricetag too high, he’d be non-tendered (I think, correct me if I’m wrong) and the Cardinals get no compensation. So this is some sort of compensation now.
The Cardinals, at least on paper, didn’t get a lot worse I guess…and they get some salary relief next year from Ludwick to help try and re-up the Mang. I think they’re maybe better in the long run, and about the same in the short run, just so long as Westbrook doesn’t crap the bed and Jay/Craig play as about expected. Is that hoping for too much?
I’m afraid this is some sort of misguided endorsement of Jon Jay (from the front office that brought you: Kyle Lohse was flukily good for one year, so let’s re-sign him!) and Dave Duncan (Westbrook + Duncan = teh awesome FTW!). To me it makes more sense to hold on to Ludwick, get San Diego out of this deal and work directly with the Indians, and then shop Ludwick in the winter time if you find his price-tag too constrictive.
Maybe there’s something that will still happen today with the middle infield before 3pm that helps me understand this more, because I get the deal…except I really don’t get it.
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Very well stated, erik. I don’t quite understand this move, unless something is soon to follow. I understand that Westbrook can help fill the 4th starter void and I welcome that, but it comes at too high a price. This just doesn’t feel like the move of a true contender, and it is something the Cards should have been able to do without the Pads and without losing Ludwick. This may just further cripple an already inconsistent offense IF another move is not made. What happened to the so called “dry powder” the Cards had available? I thought they felt they had the payroll flexibility to pick up a contract if needed. Also, I feel the Cards could have and should have gotten a much better prospect in this deal. One bright side is we’ll hopefully get to see Craig in St. Louis. Hopefully his promotion will come with the loss of Miles.
Basically this deal means Ludwick = Kluber (the minor leaguer the Indians got in the deal). Kluber looks like Walters on paper with a little less refinement and a little more velocity. Sorry, but i think Ludwick equals more than Walters/Kluber.
It also appears the minor leaguers the Yankees gave up for a slightly inferior Berkman (as well as taking on more salary) are superior to Kluber/Walters. One of them was the 14th best prospect in the NYPENN league last year and is one of the top base stealers in the minors.
This also will affect the farm system when we fail to get the 2 top draft picks for offering Ludwick arbitration after the 2011 season.
All and all, there is little upside to this deal.
I really liked Ludwick, but he did not get all the at bats he should have. When he would start to get them it seemed like he would get hurt. I agree we should have gotten a little more for him. I would have rather had better prospects and paid for WestBROKE… hope Westbrook proves me wrong and makes this deal look like a steal.
One more commit, I do not like the idea of trading an everyday player for a #4-5 starting pitcher. Everyday production for every 5th.
Ludwick helped carry the team earlier in the year when Holliday was tanking and Pujols was underperforming. Mo may have just traded our way out of the playoffs. Is it a salary dump when Westbrook is owed as much for half a year Ludwick is a full year. I guess Mo doesn’t believe in clutch performance because this year Ludwick was the best clutch player we had this year.
Ummm…are the Marlins still looking to maybe deal Uggla? In my dreams, this is partly a move for a starter and partly a move to clear slaary so we can deal for Uggla…
Or it was a GM who felt pressured to do something/anything and ended up depleting the teams aleady limited offense.
Agree with Andrew. In football terms, we’d say JMo heard the footsteps. The media and team manager were on him to find a starter. And panicked. Reminds me alot of how we got totally hosed in the DeRosa deal (or the K. Greene deal, although we didn’t know how messed up Kbot’s brain was when we got him). Gee, the same two felons who gang poked us in the backside in those deals double-teamed us on this one. The Cardinal brass may be trying to tell themselves that the team got better by making this trade but that’s not the true criterion of trade value: i.e., did you receive equivalent or better value in return (including salary considerations)? Ryan Ludwick is a valuable commodity. We essentially got Jake Westbrook in return. This guy needs to have a Lazarus-type resurrection under Duncan for the deal to look passable. If they bring up Stavi instead of Craig to fill Ludwick’s roster spot, then the deal starts to smell to high heaven. With Craig we can at least dream his bat matures into Luddy’s.
Mo put too many eggs in the Oswalt basket. After that Cleveland knew they had Mo over a barrel. A week ago we could have gotten Westbrook much cheaper I think.
Stavi is up because Craig cant be called up (except as an injury replacement) for 10 days after being sent down.
Mozeliak just got a contract extension. I think any notion that he panicked is absurd.
Yeah, I dont agree with that assessment either, Carioca. Mo wanted another starter but did not solely need the Indians to make that happen. There were other starters available.
No other significant starters changed hands after Oswalt other than Westbrook and Lilly and we weren’t trading with the Cubs. The idea he panicked was not my characterization.
Right, Mo is cool hand Luke
[...] is Nick Greenwood (22 years old; still playing A ball); Erik provided this take on the player at Future Redbirds: Nick Greenwood is 22 years old, left-handed and has a 6 K/9 in the Midwest League. He was a 14th [...]
The only serious problem I have with the deal is that it didn’t happen until now. Westbrook would have been handy the last month or two. Greenwood’s got good numbers and the post-Ludwick era was going to start in a few months in any case. Good to see him going to a quality team in a quality town.
Now if Westbrook would be so kind as to fall in love with STL and sign back on for a few below market seasons, that’d be super.
Of course having less Suppan/Hawksworth starts would have been helpful but is Penny any closer to returning? I guess Lohse is but will his performance be upon returning? I dont think anyone knows the answer to that question thus the need for insurance, ie Westbrook.
I think you hit the nail on the head, Erik. The way to go would have been to toss a little dreck at the Indians for Westbrook and then deal Ludwick in the offseason for something of value. I do think the upgrade from Suppan to Westbrook will be greater than the downgrade from Ludwick to Jay/Craig but there was really no need to give up anything in the OF right now.
The Indians didn’t actually trade with the Cardinals according to Hoyer. The Padres threw them a better prospect than we were willing to offer and then flipped Westbrook to us for $ and Ludwick.
This makes it hurt even more, we didnt even have to give up Ludwick in this deal? So your telling me that Lance Lynn or David Kopp or anyone like that wasn’t better than who the Padres traded them? Thats just crazy.
Here’s my concern; are we sure he’s replacing Suppan in the rotation? It seems like he’s more likely to replace Hawksworth, maybe even save Jaime’s arm some innings. As far as direct value to wins this year, either of those scenarios puts a dent in the upgrade to Westbrook.
I think this is an indication that they really don’t expect much out of Penny for the rest of the season.
Agree that we got fleeced. Westbrook may be better than Soup and Hawk but, the way the Cardinals have scored runs in their starts, he’ll have to be a lot better to make a difference in wins. I don’t think he is that much better.
Ludwick was underappreciated by the Cards FO. He was a cheap, good fielding slugger who seemed to do a better job of “protecting” Albert than the guy they spent 120 million on to do the same thing.
I love Jay but know he’s playing over his head. It will be nice to see if Craig gets a chance. Agree with JRay that this will wreak way more if Craig stays in Memphis in favor of Stavi.
The idea Craig is going to be in a Jay platoon may be premature.
The Cards could have traded Jay or Ludwick, and went younger and cheaper. This gives them financial flexibility for the future.
I’ll be different and say I like this development a LOT.
The main thing is that the Cardinals have patched a weakness by dealing from strength. As much as I like Ludwick, he’s one of five outfielders competing for three spots, and he is no longer the most cost-effective competitor for the spots not occupied by Holliday and Raz. If there is one position on the whole roster where the team can absorb the loss of somebody good, it’s right field.
Put differently: If the Indians had come in directly and said, “we’ll trade you Westbrook, some cash, and a marginal minor-league arm for our choice of Craig, Jay or Ludwick,” who do you hope they pick, looking both at this year’s needs and the long-term health of the team?
Would you have traded Ludwick, Craig, or Jay straight up for Kluber (not even a top 10 – maybe not top 20 – prospect for the Padres)? You’d turn down the trade without thinking twice.
not relevant since kluber wouldn’t be taking suppan’s starts and helping the cards make the playoffs this year.
relevant to the extent that Ludwick had more value than we got in return. We could have traded Ludwick elsewhere and flipped the prospects for Westbrook.
The Indians got Kluber and millions in salary relief.
Come on guys…there is so much more that goes into this deal.
First off, Jon Jay is a BETTER hitter than Ryan Ludwick…Jon Jay is a left handed hitter as well and fits PERFECTLY into the #2 spot. Is he going to have the same power as Ludwick? No….but he is faster, plays better defense and a much overall better hitter. Jay will hit .300 or above in this league…Ludwick is about a .260 hitter and strikes out WAY too much…The Cardinals already have a guy like that…his name is Colby Rasmus…lots of power, strikes out a ton and bats about .260 to .270…
This trade is about Colby Rasmus and Ryan Ludwick being too similar…You don’t want to have your 5 and 6 hitters both striking out and batting .265…..so placing Ludwick or Rasmus in the 2 hole and 5 hole has really hurt the team as far as consistency is concerned…
The cardinals lacked GOOD left-handed hitters…Schumaker is not a good hitter and Rasmus is too streaky…putting Jay in the 2 hole is vital for this team to succeed.
When we get David Freese back..this offense will come together….I’ll miss Ludwicks power, but I will not miss the strikeouts and extreme streakiness….I’ll give up 10 homers a year to have less strikeouts, more speed and cost about 7.5 million less per year…
This offense will score runs and be just fine…The balance of power, hitting and now speed should enable much more flexibilty
1) (S) Felipe Lopez – 2B
2) (L) Jon Jay – RF
3) (R) Albert Pujols – 1B
4) (R) Matt Holiday – LF
5) (L) Colby Rasmus – CF
6) (R) David Freese – 3B
7) (R) Yadier Molina – C
8) (R) Tyler Greene – SS
***I’m done with Schumaker and Ryan….Turn Schumaker into a pinch hitter and utility player. Ryan needs to figure it out in AAA. I don’t care how good his defense is. .200 just can’t cut it in the big leagues
I too am having trouble reconciling this trade in my small brain. I think the problem I’m having is that I LIKE Studwick a lot. He was a good player who played the game the right way and I’m sorry to see him go.
I sympathize with folks who bemoan losing Ludwick for the return, but the more I think about it from other teams’ perspectives, the more I can see that we really wouldn’t have gotten a lot more for him. He’s a unique player in that injuries robbed him of his early-to-peak years, putting him in the position of being a guy who’s productive NOW, but with a shrinking window of “peakness” and some injury problems cropping up as he ages. So he’s getting older, potentially less productive (and unlikely to ever reproduce 2008), running into some injuries–realistically, what would we get for him in the off-season? You can roll the dice and hope he finishes strong, increasing his value (also rolling the dice that Lohse comes back strong from an injury no other baseball player has ever had), or runs into more leg problems and decreases his value.
But I LIKE Luddy! And that just makes everything else make less sense somehow. I WANT more for him. But when I think of it rationally, it just doesn’t seem like anyone out there would offer more…especially considering the perception of our farm system. The other teams really had the Cardinals over a barrel, given the team’s stance of needing a starter right now. Pfeh.
Oh, and not that it means anything, but Lohse gave up 3 bombs tonight, two to a .240 hitter. But Soup pitched great! Against the Pirates! /sarcasm
I personally like this deal. The off the field reason was getting ludwick off the books so we can make our run at Pujols this off season. On the field, I think it gives us some improvement too. I feel that giving consistent starts to Rasmus and Jay will help with them settling in. It could also backfire, but I’ve got a really good feeling about it.
As for comparing any Ludwick #’s. I’d just scrap that idea. We really have three season to look at, one (2008) was good, but not spectacular. The other two were just ok, maybe even below average for a corner outfielder. I have to think that a full season of Jay/Craig can recreate his 2007 or 2009 numbers easily.
Ludwick is off the books but we are paying as much for Westbrook’s 2 months as we did for Ludwick for the whole year so far. Not only that Westbrook is the defination of a rental player. If he performs he prices himself out of our range. If you wanted to trade Ludwick you could have gotten so much more value in the off season trading or trading to the Giants or the Mariners. Whatever happened to the Ludwick for Uggla or Ludwick for Prado. That gives us more value than an average rental for 2 months. I like Ludwick as a player but what this was was a serious mismanagement of our assets. He held the most value for polayers we were willing to trade.
Westbrook is costly, so Luddy had to go to defray this price.
Replacing Penny with Westbrook is all about trying to win the division in 2010.
We could have traded minor leaguers and had a better team. Now we have a worse team. Worry about costs during the off season it shouldnt be the main factor during the season when we are fighting for a pennant. Westbrook won’t be a Cardinal next year so it shouldn’t effect Alberts possible extension.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_7de7436b-9ab9-565e-a9f0-01a4739afd77.html
This is what Ludwick means to the clubhouse.
dumb f’ing trade
I think the other thing that people fail to think about here is the most important point – without a solid #4 starter (you CAN debate about WHO they sent away to get the deal done), this pitching staff was likely to go to pot this year. It IS the team’s strength, and if you keep running Jaime out there too much he gets hurt before the playoffs. If you keep running Soup and Hawksworth out there and putting an extremely heavy load on the bullpen, it would crumble too. I think this is why they saw another dependable starter as so important. The ENTIRE pitching staff depends upon that extra piece.
Even with a mild upgrade in the offense, the pitching staff would have fallen apart, and we would have missed the playoffs anyway, and had a few good arms damaged along the way. One hitter doesn’t elevate the status of the whole offense, nor prevent injury to many of the key players on the offensive side.
Regardless, I’m sad that Ludwick is gone, he seemed like a great guy/player/teammate. But I think something had to be done.
I concur with Aaron. After Lee, Haren and Oswalt there were not good starting pitching options and they needed a starting pitcher to cover for the ongoing loss of Penny and Lohse, so as not to burn out the bullpen and the other starters whose rotation has been juggled to attempt to minimize the loss of Penny and Lohse, and to minimize the starts being given to Suppan and Hawksworth. I do not think they wanted to be tied to a starter beyond this year unless they so choose at the end of this year, i.e. Westbrook and not Edwin Jackson.
As much as I liked Ludwick there is no way they would have offered him arbitration both this year and next year to get to the point of receiving draft choice compensation, IF that is even still a part of the next collective bargaining contract at the end of 2011.
Whether they got enough for Ludwick remains to be seen. They obviously think they did, which factored in what they perceive they needed and got to give them a chance this year, what they have in the farm system to replace Ludwick both for the remainder of this year and beyond, and whether they would have even kept Ludwick beyond the non tender date this year due to the anticipated contract of Albert.
Finally the net wash of money in the trade still gives them “dry powder” in the event a waiver claim player who helps them and only requires picking up the remainder of a contract becomes yet available this month.
Again I hate to see Ludwick go, but I can understand the rational. We’ll see if it works.
I will hold judgment on this deal until later in the year at least. I can see the logic on this trade even if most of you will disagree. I have said from the beginning of the deadline talks that Westbrook makes the most sense of any pitcher that will most likely be on the market. He can be an innings eater and is our typical ground ball pitcher. He has the making of a legit #3/#4 type pitcher. He will give up more hits than you would like but counters that with plenty of DP opportunities. He isn’t going to anymore All-Star games nor will his stuff blow you away. But what he has done over his career is keep you in games, occasionally throw a gem and go deep into games to help save your bully. I like Westbrook and realistically it is exactly what we needed. Sure an Oswalt or Haren would have been nice but our system would have taken another KO.
To the questionable piece of this deal…what we gave up. Ludwick is a guy that I am a big fan of…solid contributions, solid D and arm in RF, good clubhouse guy, etc. He is a solid complement to Pujols and Holliday. Could we have given up a mid-tier prospect and get the deal done? Sure. What prospect were the Indians asking for? Not sure but maybe a Lynn type (#3 starter type future). I think this deal had as much to do with next year as anything. We save $8+M next year with Luddy’s last year of arbitration and we obviously felt good enough with the combo of Jay/Craig for the rest of the year and next year. This is obviously a way to free up money to create more flexibility for next year and I am sure the need for Pujols contract extension talks in the offseason.
One thing to keep in mind is as great as Garcia has been he has never pitched a full MLB season and we should expect him to fade a bit down the stretch. This is common for most youngsters in their first year in the league. If he doesn’t fade thats just a big bonus. But the Cards will do what they can to help preserve him down the stretch IMO. Getting a solid contributor like Westbrook will give us insurance for Garcia fading. Notice how I am not banking on Lohse or Penny. Either of them coming back and giving us solid starts is just a major bonus but not expected.
So with all that said I have mixed feelings to the point that I will hold out judgment until the end of the year. This trade will look good if most of these scenarios pan out:
1) Jay/Craig/Winn produce (mostly Jay as I see him getting most of the starts) to an adequate level
2) Luddy doesn’t absolutely tear it up for the Pads
3) Westbrook pitch to his capabilities and give us 6-8 innings every start and keep us in games
4) Pujols gets signed to an extension in the offseason
5) We make the playoffs and Westbrook is a significant part of our postseason rotation.
i understand, but jay/craig is what we should have done instead of holliday
kept luddy, and spent the money on lee or halliday
next year lud would have have likely consumed less money than penny+lud this year (~14M) and then we have 15-20 M to cover an extension for halliday and pay part of albert’s increase
many ways to skin the budget next year w/o this panic move
Shoulda Coulda Woulda. The fact remains is we have Holliday for a number of years and that should not go into the equation for this trade. Whether you like it or not Holliday is here and we paid him a nice chunk of change. I disagree with you that its a panic move. I feel like it was a business decision that they are banking on Jay/Craig/Winn to produce at or near what Luddy did. But everyone has opinions and thats fine.
The other positive about Westbrook is that he does not lock them into another starting pitcher for next year, which would block either a free agent pick up or someone surfacing next spring like Garcia, or even McClellan again. I presume they would start next season with Carp, Waino, Garcia and Lohse for four slots (they can’t trade and won’t eat Lohse’s remaining contract until it becomes obvious that he can’t start any longer). Westbrook gives them the flexibility for next season. Hopefully he pitches well enough to sign an extension. However the thing to avoid like the plague is an extension of multiple years like they did with Lohse. A one year deal for Westbrook or another Brad Penny type makes sense unless they are sure that someone from the farm or McClellan or Hawksworth can step in (and McClellan be replaced in the pen).
I don’t think you should count on Westbrook being a significant part of the rotation in the postseason. A #4 starter should *hopefully* just make two starts in the postseason. Unless TLR doesn’t want Garcia to turn into Ankiel and doesn’t let him part of the rotation. But then we’d have Lohse and Westbrook as part of the rotation and be out in the first round.
My point is you can’t bank on Garcia in the postseason and down the stretch as with all 1st year starters they aren’t accustom to pitching the amount of innings that is required for a full season. Westbrook gives you insurance/options/depth.
I believe Westbrook has pitched to the 7th or deeper in 1/3 of his games this year. He is coming off Tommy John also. I believe him and Garcia healed up at about the same time. So I wouldn’t really count on him as an innings eater. The trade was about freeing up money for during the post season. That is at the expense of this years team. The reason I’m saying it was a bad trade even before any performance is because we could have got the same guy without losing any MLB production at all. So losing from from the Big League team when we didn’t have to automatically makes this a worse trade than it had to be. If Ludwick was always on the table why not go after Sanchez from the Giants or one of the young guys from Tampa. Shields or Davis.
The problem with any “why not go after” suggestions is that none of us have any idea if the other team would even have considered such a trade. For example, the Giants had been rumored to be pursuing Adam Dunn, but apparently were not willing to give up Sanchez or Bumgarner. Tampa also was rumored to be in on Dunn but were not willing to even give up their prospects, let alone pitchers they need for the stretch run. If the Cards did not take the offer for Ludwick now, it is possible that, because of the need to hold money to see what was necessary for Albert, they might have found it necessary in the off season to non tender him or take a fringe prospect like Greenwood, without the benefit of patching the rotation for the remainder of the year with Westbrook.
The difference in Westbrook and Garcia’s recovery from TJ is one was a rookie that has never went more than 155 IP and he did that once (4 years ago). Since he has not went over 116 IP. Westbrook has been over 200 IP 3 times at the MLB level. That is a huge different IMO. He can be an innings eater and has shown that in the past. Since he is coming off TJ it is unfair to rate his innings the first 2 months of the season as he was still ramping back up. You look at the last few months and he has gone 6+ every start except 3.
As far as taking from the big league team when you didn’t have to there is legs to that. They could have given a prospect or 2 and got the deal done IMO. But the fact remains is they feel like this year they will get similiar production from the combo of Jay/Craig and sometimes Winn as they would have from Luddy. Then next year its a battle for the starting job between the 2 at $7.5+M less than Luddy would have been. This frees up money for the Pujols contract situation as well as other needs that we have on the club.
As far as if we dealt Luddy why not go after others…well Sanchez was not made available by all media sources I read and the Rays were not dealing anyone from the MLB rotation. I am sure Mo called every team more than once on different ideas and players. GM’s near the trade deadline live on the phone. I am sure he exhausted his options.
Once again – The Cards are banking on the fact that Jay/Craig gets the job done this year…that is the key to this deal. So we will evaluate this deal at the end of the year and determine whether it worked out or not.
The more I think about this deal the more I think it may have been done for more than one purpose. The obvious purpose was to get another starter but I wonder if it also wasn’t done to shake the team up. All year long the position players have been underperforming, not just at the plate but in the field and on the base paths. The PD folks, front office folks and even TLR have thrown around the “pressure” and “chemistry” terms in an attempt to account for the poor performance.
Matt Holliday was traded for and signed for a mint, not just to add his own offense, but to somehow provide more “protection” for Albert than he was already getting, primarily from Ludwick. That’s a load of pressure to lay on both Albert and Holliday if the expectation was that the best hitter in baseball would somehow actually produce more with Holliday behind him. It also hasn’t worked so far as Albert has been more mortal since Matt came over.
If those two were having issues with pressure and chemistry that could easily spread to the rest of the lineup trying to make up for it. There also may have been a camp of players (I would have been in it) that felt that Ludwick could do a better job of hitting behind Albert. This, in turn, could have created more issues with “chemistry” among the players. This could happen without any real fault on the part of Ludwick or anybody else but Jay’s emergence and the inability to obtain offensive help may have created a situation where trading Ryan was seen as the only way to make a change that might shake the hitters out of their doldrums. If so the first returns, albeit against the Pirates, are encouraging. Hopefully Westbrook makes us happy tonight.