Archive for August, 2010

Arizona Fall League Rosters came out today and the Cardinals are sending 5 players so far with 3 more Cardinals to be announced (probably after the minor league playoffs).

All the Cardinals are on the Surprise Rafters.
Pete Kozma (SS), Tony Cruz (C), Adron Chambers (OF), Blake King (RP) and Brian Broderick (SP) are going to be playing in the AFL this fall.

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Obviously, the Major League Baseball draft differs heavily from other sports amateur drafts as far as seeing results immediately. Most teams don’ determine their decisions in the draft by what their highest level club needs, so often fans will have to wait three or four years before they can start to see the fruits of their clubs front office’s labor. However, thanks to some folks much smarter than I, we  have data available to estimate the average Wins-Above-Replacement levels of picks based upon where they are selected, what position they play, and what level of play they are advancing from. Using Alex Pedicini’s post over at HardballTimes, we can apply this study to the Cardinals top picks of the ’10 draft .

If you don’t feel like checking out Pedicini’s post, here are the WAR/year averages of each player selected in the first, second and third rounds from the 1992-1999  drafts…

First Round

College hitters– 1.336 WAR/year
High School hitters– 1.204 WAR/year
College pitchers– .649 WAR/year
High School pitchers– .878 WAR/year

Second Round

College hitters– .773 WAR/year
High School hitters– .672 WAR/year
College pitchers– .087 WAR/year
High School pitchers– .084 WAR/year

Third Round

College hitters– .115 WAR/year
High School hitters– .424 WAR/year
College pitchers– (.023) WAR/year
High School pitchers– .058 WAR/year

With St. Louis having five picks in the first three rounds, their total would be something around 1.9 WAR, but that would be counting Tyrell Jenkins as second round talent. Jenkins, a player who would have surely been selected in the first round had signability not been an issue, adds nearly a full win if he is grouped into first round talent-average.

Let’s see how St. Louis faired against the rest of the National League Central. Since we gave Jenkins the first round value treatment, we will do the same for the rest of the division if they selected a player outside of the first round that  qualifies in the first thirty of Keith Law’s most recent Top 100. I’m giving teams Scouting/Player-Development departments the benefit of the doubt for questionable selections outside of the first round. Though, maybe I shouldn’t, considering Ed Wade is in play here…

St. Louis– 2.73 WAR/year (5 picks)
Houston– 2.56 WAR/year (5 picks)
Reds– 2.22 WAR/year (3 picks)
Pittsburgh– 1.87 WAR/year (3 picks)
Chicago– 1.67 WAR/year (3 picks)
Milwaukee– .107 WAR/year * (2 picks)

* Milwaukee failed to sign their first round selection.

This is not an indicator for how the Cardinals did in the draft as a whole. If I had more time, resources, and brainpower, I might be able to pull something off like that. Looking at the picks on a piece of paper, they did well, in my opinion, but we cannot forget the importance of player procurement that can turn late round picks into legitimate prospects, but hopefully this gives you a picture of how the Cardinals appear to have done at the top of their draft, based on historical studies.

Johnson City spoils a perfect night for the minor leagues, but there was a Tyrell Jenkins and Roberto De La Cruz sightings!

Onwards and downwards on the screen!

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After having seen Matt Carpenter in Springfield a couple weeks ago, I found myself questioning what the Cardinals have created for themselves in the selection of Zack Cox overall. I think they’ll have created a situation that is much to their advantage.

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Five games on the docket tonight as Palm Beach was suspended before completing four. The system went 3-2 otherwise.

On to the DFR….

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It is a really good thing that I love minor league baseball. The big club is hard to watch right now. It would follow that we had a good night in the minors just to even things out. 5-1 and BOOM goes the dynamite!!

Here we go with the DFR…

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On Friday night, the system went 3-4 as Palm Beach needed two games to satisfy the itch.

Happy DFR people……

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I wanted to link to this report, which was quite detailed and well done; he came away with a higher opinion of Broderick (and higher velocity readings) than I did from a recent game. It’s a good read. To wit:

I can see him being a very good fifth starter or maybe even developing into a fourth starter.  However, Broderick doesn’t have anything that’s over powering or above average.  But he is a very good competitor and gets the job done.  Guys like that seem to do okay for a few years.  And at least make a decent career in the bullpen.

There’s more over there so be sure to read the full report.

There are ridiculously 9 games on the docket tonight so no flowery prose, on to the DFR.
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Jason Motte is on the comeback trail, although in not an all-together effective way this evening.

With Colby Rasmus out for a majority of the time and Randy Winn/Allen Craig not stacking up runs from the RF position, the Cardinals have lost 4 of the 5 games Jake Westbrook has started.  We’ve been exactly 1 win better than we would have been with an injured Jeff Suppan.  Can we get Ryan Ludwick back?

On to the DFR!

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