2010 MLB Draft: Which First Rounder To Sign?
Posted on August 10th, 2010 by azruavatar in 2010 MLB DraftWith the signing deadline now less than a week away, I guess this post is due. I’ve been largely quiet regarding Zach Cox and Austin Wilson thus far because a) I don’t have anything official to report and b) the rumors weren’t very thick until the last few days. It’s still difficult to get an exact feel for which direction the Cardinals will take, which should tell you a lot about the direction of this post.
The Cardinals essentially drafted two first round talents in first rounder Zach Cox and in the twelfth rounder Austin Wilson. At draft time, Wilson was considered an extreme long shot with no adviser (read: agent) and a strong commitment to Stanford. The story went that his affluent parents, both alumni of prestigious universities, wanted to see their son attend Stanford. Zach Cox slipped to late in the first round due to perceived signing demands. The Cardinals snatched up both players.
Two months since the draft, the Cardinals find themselves in an unusual situation. Austin Wilson has proven far more open to signing than they expected. The Cardinals, who are very high on Wilson, have spent a great deal of time talking to the family. They’ve discussed various special provisions of a contract in relation to school. They’ve shown the kid what life is like in the bigs. (I don’t suspect spending the day with Quad Cities to see minor league life is as persuasive.) In short, they’re pulling out all the stops and, it may, be working.
Zach Cox has, however, proven far more difficult to come to a consensus with. With Scott Boras as his advisor and rumors floating pre-draft that he was looking for $5M+ in signing compensation, the Cardinals have been stymied by the disparity in perceived value. Equally frustrating has been the fact that the Cardinals, despite Cox being a sophomore, feel they hold most of the negotiating leverage. Cox is highly unlikely to improve his draft position in a stacked 2011 class and waiting till 2012 would leave him a senior with little negotiating power. The Cardinals continued discussion with Wilson give them the opportunity to acquire a first round talent without actually signing their number one pick overall. Still, Cox has proven less tractable than hoped.
So the team finds itself with an arduous week ahead. They’ll continue to have discussions with both players but budget constraints are a real world thing and it may not prove possible to sign both players. I’ve framed this discussion in the idea that Wilson has been more apt to sign than the team thought and Cox less so. That is, as near as I can tell, an accurate portrayal of the current state of affairs. The degree to which that is true is something that only Luhnow or Zach Cox or Austin Wilson could really tell you. The smart money is still on the Cardinals signing Zach Cox and not signing Austin Wilson.
The takeaway today should be that things are much more fluid than they were two months ago. The team would be content to take a supplemental pick in the 2011 draft and sign Wilson this year. (MLB would not be so thrilled with that.) If at draft time, there was a 10% chance Wilson was going to sign, I’d call 50-50 now. Likewise Cox seems to have gone from a 3-to-1 odds to something nearing 2-to-1 or 3-to-2.
If the Cardinals acquire both players, they’ll have a strong claim to a top 5 draft class. You could argue that it would be Luhnow’s best draft class to date comparable to 2005.
(Poor Jordan Swaggerty has proven an afterthought to most Cardinals fans. I expect him to sign this week without any major concerns.)
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I commented this on the Daily farm Report but I felt it to be more relevant for this post.
You would have to assume that if/when the Cardinals signed Zack Cox, Austin Wilson, Tyrell Jenkins, Matthew Swagerty, Seth Blair (already signed) and Carlos Matias that they would all join Shelby Miller in the Cardinals top 10 Prospects, am I right? The question then becomes who fills out the last 3 spots.
Here is my wish list top 10:
1. Shelby Miller
2. Austin Wilson
3. Zack Cox
4. Carlos Matias
5. Oscar Tavares
6. Tyrell Jenkins
7. Seth Blair
8. Eduardo Sanchez
9. Matthew Swagerty
10. Descalso/ Stanley/ Longmire/ Carpenter
This just shows you how depleted our farm system was after rescent trades and with Daryl Jones, Lance Lynn, and Pete Kozma having down years. On top of that, Jamie Garcia, Allen Craig, Jon Jay, and David Freese have all graduated to the majors. Either way you would have to agree that the Cardinals front office and Luhnow have done a nice job re-stocking our farm system.
This reminds me; isn’t it time to update the Carlos Matias Update?
I am not with you on the players that are a sure thing in the Top 10. Assuming all the draftees sign I don’t see Swagerty in the Top 10 and Blair is no sure thing. To me here are the guys that should be considered for the Top 10 in no particular order. To me there are only a few locks (denoted with *) and the rest can have an argument for or against pretty easily. Also excluding anyone that has spent time in the MLB this year as I will assume they graduate.
Miller (*)
Wilson (*)
Cox (*)
Matias (*)
Kelly
O. Taveras
Sanchez
Riefer
Hooker
Jenkins (and this is a stretch since I feel he is still very raw)
A. Perez
Lynn
Carpenter
Descalso
Henley (probably not because of injury but I am high on the kid)
Pham
B. Anderson
Chambers
Schneider
Guys just missing the discussion:
Longmire
Samuel
Stanley
Cerreto
Blair
You can argue others that missed the discussion but this should be a legit list of possible players to discuss for the Top 10-12 of the system for next year assuming all 2010 draftees sign.
Regardless, throwing out a list of 30 names that could all make an argument for the top 10 list should only show you where our farm system has gone as far as depth goes in the last year.
Agreed that we definitely have some depth now. But we are still a year or 2 of solid drafts and IFA’s away from having an exciting system. But we at least have some star power to talk about unlike before the 2009 draft! Heading in the right direction.
Yes, those would likely have to be in the top ten; however, I feel they are in a bit different order.
1. SP Shelby Miller
2. 3B/2B Zack Cox
3. OF AustinW ilson
4. CL Eduardo Sanchez
5. SP Carlos Matias
6. SP Tyrell Jenkins
7. OF Oscar Taveras
8. RP Seth Blair
9. 3B Matt Carpenter
10. C Cody Stanley
I’ll join in the fun….
A few comments first. I believe you are over-valuing Stanley and Jenkins. Conversely, where is Descalsco and Longmire? I am not saying that Longmire is a top 10 guy, but I would have to believe he should be ahead of Stanley. Moreover, I think Stanley is only about the 3rd/4th best Catching prospect in the system. Now on to my list….feel free to critique in an equally harsh manner ;)
1) Shelby Miller, RHP: What an exciting prospect! I would venture a guess that only a handful of teams have an equal pitching prospect.
2) ZAck Cox, IF: If he can play 2nd base, we could have a gem. At 3rd, he becomes a solid but unspectacular prospect. Still, I don’t see a better bat in the system (assuming he enters said system)
3) Austin Wilson, OF: The upsider….high fail rate, but studly tools. My mouth waters with the thoughts of Colby and this cat roaming the STL OF for a decade….could be special
4) Eduardo Sanchez, RP: He might seem high, but he is still very young and is within shouting distance of the big club. I don’t know if he will get a callup, but he could probably handle it. A fantastic 2 pitch mix for a short man (in more ways than one)
5) Dan Descalsco, 2b: I see no reason to put him any lower. He hits well, his fielding seems adequate, and he is a stone’s throw away.
6) Lance Lynn, RHP: Most still project him to be a big league starter. He is this high because I believe him to be a high floor guy. The comps have always said Kevin Millwood….what is wrong with that?
7) Matt Carpenter, 3b: This guy has earned this spot. I am cautiously optimistic, but still very excited to have a potential late round steal.
8) Carlos Matias, RHP: Yes the stuff is good. He still hasn’t been on this continent yet. Let’s give him some time before proclaiming him the 2nd coming.
9) Oscar Tavares, OF: A sleeper that is waking up quickly. What an interesting system we might have with Oscar and Austin in the low minors.
10) Bryan Anderson, C: He lands on the top ten for proximity purposes. I can’t see a way he is not Yadi’s backup next year. But, crazier things have happened.
Just missed….
Tyrell Jenkins–Raw, but very exciting arm
Pete Kozma—I’m still a believer
Daryl Jones—I’m still a believer, part 2
Stanley at 10? Really?
Much as I’m amused by having a catcher with 20+ SB potential, a guy mashing after a month or so in short-season ball who profiles as a backup catcher in MLB, if he makes it, and doesn’t (like Stock) have a pitching career to fall back on?
Meh.
I disagree. Seth Blair seems fairly comparable to a Lynn/Ottavino type, albeit less advanced. Swaggerty is a likely reliever, and I’m not convinced he’s ahead of Joe Kelly in the pecking order after Kelly’s decent 2010 so far, and he’s certainly behind Adam Reifer and Eduardo Sanchez as a bullpen prospect.
Even if Craig and Jay are considered “graduated” now, it’s hard to see how the lower ceiling draft guys (Blair and Swaggerty) can be ahead of the likes of Descalso, Sanchez, Lynn, Reifer, Kelly, Hooker, and Carpenter, even if you can make an argument for the guys who have more “star-ceiling” than our high minors prospects (Jenkins, Matias, Wilson, Cox).
I’m also not convinced a couple of good months in low-A turns Oscar Taveras into a top 5 guy, or even a definitive top 20. Think Niko Vazquez a couple of years back.
I think for sure that Kelly is still ahead of Swaggerty. Regarding Taveras I think Luhnows glowing reviews of him is what is making him a Top 5 or 10 prospect not his stats. From what I’ve read the guy is compariable to Colby Rasmus. Wasn’t he instantly a top 10 when he was drafted. Isn’t it the same thing for an international FA guy when he shows hes for real.
I take issue with the “sure” part of your statement.
No reason in my mind to think Kelly is ahead of Swagerty. Swagerty was a 2nd rounder and a maybe slight reach. Kelly was a 3rd rounder and a bigger reach. ( a few mocks had Swagerty as a supplemental 1st rounder; Kelly (in his draft year) was never even lsted as 2nd rounder that I could find) Kelly hasn’t pitched any better than I would expect a 3rd rounder to pitch. Until Swagerty pitches, I’m going to assume he pitches like a 2nd rounder. I find it easy to rank Swagerty ahead of Kelly.
From what I’ve seen from Kelly and read about Swagerty is that Kelly had a LOT of untapped potential. Those high SO rates and high GB rates as well show that he is a really good pitcher. He was largely used out of relief in college, but the Cardinals converted him into a starter. If everything clicked with Kelly, you could be looking at a middle of the rotation starter. Swagerty not so much, maybe a key late inning reliever.
The other point is Kelly proved he can be converted to a starter by having a great year for QC. I would have never have been near as confident in Kelly at this time last year just like I am not sold on Swagerty as a starter right now. If he goes out next year and pitches anywhere close to what Kelly did this year then he will be in the discussion and that gives us another starting pitcher hopeful which makes everyone happy! To me Kelly is in the Top 10 in the 7-10 range. There is nothing that would sway me from thinking he shouldn’t be in the Top 10 personally.
I hope you are right but I see nothing special in Kelly so far. Good GB rates but he doesn’t miss as many bats as a player with the potential you are talking about normally does at that level.
I am not saying he is a superstar waiting to happen…I am saying in our system which still lacks star power he is in the 7-10 range. He misses enough bats and has a crazy good GB% that makes me believe he hits a ceiling at a #3 SP. The key is he has proven he can be a starter which holds more value than if he was just a reliever. He has room to grow as this was just his first year starting so he has much to learn plus he has a dynamite FB. Why would I put Swagerty ahead of Kelly at this point? I liked the Swagerty pick to an extent but I see him as a back of the bully type of arm…not a starter.
And only the Cards saw that untapped potential? You know the Cards are reportedly going to try Swaggerty as a starter as well.
Very well stated. My take on the situation is this…and based on all the relevant chatter that I hear. The Cards are really hoping to have an agreement in place with Wilson in the next 3-4 days to submit to MLB for approval. That way they know if they will get Wilson or not. If that happens they then play extreme hardball with Cox…basically saying here is your offer that we feel is very fair…take it or leave it (maybe not to that extremely but you get the drift). Obviously both would be a very exciting time for the Cards and showing that they are quite serious about injecting high end talent to a system that is lacking…but realistically it is truly a budgetary decision. If they have a number in mind they are willing to spend on Wilson and Cox combined they have to find a way to make them both fit into that budget. I am seriously thinking that we have a better shot of signing Wilson than Cox which is a total 180 from what I (and most everyone else) thought this whole time. I know I am in the minority but the Wilson camp has shown a tremendously openness to weighing their options and I get the gut feeling if the number is right and the arrangement for school works then he signs. I personally think the Cards will make it happen. The Cox chatter is no where to be found…I know Boras always puts big numbers that he usually doesn’t get but 5+M is high for Cox. My thought all along is $2.5M for Cox.
Regardless it will be an exciting 6 days for Cards fans. I also believe Swagerty is a slam dunk for slot or maybe slightly above slot. Here’s to hoping we can report all of them to Cards camp!
i think it’d double chicken
bouros believes wilson will not sign and advise cox his leverage will increase as week wears on
i know all who know are excited about cox, but i’m take it or leave it with him
wilson, however, is a talent we don’t get a shot at very often and well ahead of cox in desirability
Here’s some nice tidbits from Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus on Matt Carpenter and Oscar Taveras:
“Matt Carpenter, 3B, Cardinals (Double-A Springfield): 2-for-3, R, RBI, BB, K.
A little-known 2009 13th-round pick entering the year, one could make the case that Carpenter deserves consideration for the big league opening at third base created by David Freese’s ankle. 13-for-19 in his last five games and up to .341/.436/.520 in 81 Texas League games, scouts are reporting that Carpenter’s bat and on-base skills are for real, and enough to make up for power that is a bit below average.”
Oscar Taveras, OF, Cardinals (Rookie-level Johnson City): 3-for-5, 2 2B, HR (7), R, 5 RBI, K. Breakout player in a system that desperately needs one; 18-year-old Dominican is batting .345/.381/.601 and showing off some massive raw power.
Link:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11711
Love this discussion. Honestly, if you had asked me this question pre-draft, I would have done cartwheels talking about the possibility of adding Zack Cox – who I thought was a surefire top 10 pick – and Austin Wilson – a surefire first rounder.
Personally, I think they’re both about 60/40 in favor of signing with the Cards. Here’s my rationale on Wilson: Stanford is notoriously not kind to hitters, and if Wilson indeed has professional aspirations, he’d probably be better served taking the $2-3 million, have it written in his contract that Cards will pay for his offseason Stanford schooling, and begin his march to the big leagues under the tutelage of professional coaching. If the Cardinals can offer him financial security AND pay for the schooling that he and his parents so desire, I can’t see any downside to that at all. I don’t think he’s burning to be a college baseball player as much as getting that education.
On Cox: He’s a baseball rat, and I think he wants to be a baseball player more than anything. If he chose to go back to school, it would be one of two things: 1) Improve his stock to possibly get drafted higher (which is doubtful considering the 2011 class is loaded, and Cox will be hard-pressed to improve upon his 2010 numbers), or 2) Return to Arkansas for another year with his college mates. The problem with second scenario is Arkansas is reloading, because Eibner and Smiley are both probably gone, Wilkins already as much, and Arkansas has another few recruits that will probably never step foot on campus. If Cox feels as though he can add power while keeping that average high, then I guess it’s *possible* to improve his stock. . .but that’s a mighty big leap of faith in the SEC.
Just my two cents. Hopefully this time next week we’ll be discussing which is the Cards best position prospect.
It could be argued that Wilson and Cox are both top 5 talents in the draft. Cox was picked in most mock drafts to go as high as 5 and Wilson was said to be a top 6 talent but fell only because of concerns on whether or not he would sign. To come away from a draft with potentially two top 5 talents and someone with as high a ceiling as Jenkins would be amazing. Makes people forget who “The Destroyer” and “The Walrus” were?
Walrus may be gone, but he is definitely not forgotten. I’m pulling for him to make good, even if it’s for somebody else, just for the sake of having somebody in MLB with that kind of physique — and such a great nickname.
in the minority, but i like eibner much more than cox
I like Eibner’s bat better, but positionally speaking Eibner is an outfielder or first baseman, while Cox plays further to the good side of the defensive spectrum. It’s close, but I think you have to consider Cox a better prospect just based on the positions each player mans.
having 30 prospects that could vie for top 10 status can be looked at both ways. Deep, yes, but also w/o a lot of real high ceiling guys, so many of them group together. anyone below high A ball, you really have to look at tools and not stat’s as much, IMO. Until these guys get to where they are having success against better competition, then you don’t know if it is a kid who is a great athlete but will never hit a good curve (remember a guy named Michael Jordan?). Last year many folks were high on Lynn and see where he is now. without outstanding tools, the line for success is much finer and harder to get to and hold. I do like the depth of the system, and I really think Cox and Wilson will both sign. And if that happens, I think that the Cards will have found their formula for drafting. Luhnow and the stat’s guys seem to have met a happy medium with the eyeball talent guys, and it should provide for a deep, stable, talented system. one more note: think that Cox’s demands have anything to do with Boras knowing that Mo caved in the negotiations for Holliday? DeWitt was ready to walk out and Mo talked him into staying and giving Boras what he wanted. Maybe Boras is playing a card from experience here.
“The team would be content to take a supplemental pick in the 2011 draft and sign Wilson this year. (MLB would not be so thrilled with that.)” Right, got that, and I was sitting here smirking at the screen in anticipation of exactly this outcome. The question arises, however: are there any likely down sides to MLB being not so thrilled? Did Detroit suffer any consequences of their Porcello gambit (if you don’t mind me mentioning that name…)? Personally, I am very much savoring the finger in the eye that this result would give to what I view as an idiotic slotting system, but if it hurts the team in other ways, maybe it’s not the best outcome after all.
Here is a relevant article regarding this and Barrett Loux (#6 pick by the Diamondbacks). The Backs have pulled their contract offer (due to physical concerns) and are going to take the comp pick next year.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-louxdiamondbacks080310
Not just apples and oranges, CC, but more like apples and anti-apples. The sad Loux situation is the result of either a major screwup on the medical-information front, shenanigans in the D-backs front office (less likely, IMO, but mentioned for completeness), or both. It certainly doesn’t bear on a team gaming the system to pay an over-slot bonus to someone drafted later than their talent justifies; quite the opposite, the worst that can be said (if the AZ shenanigans explanation is correct — again, I really doubt it) is that the team gamed the system so that they do NOT have to pay the slot value for a guy drafted early in a weak draft class. And in any event, there’s nothing here about how MLB may land on the team for the way they handled themselves — although the MLBPA might, if they can figure a way to do it. That’s exactly the opposite of the positions the two bodies in question would likely have if the Cardinals overpay (relative to slot, not talent) for Wilson and don’t get it done with Cox.
I’m not sure comparing Porcello to Wilson is a fair one. Porcello still ended up going in the first round, Wilson fell to the 12th round. A big difference between paying a first round pick top ten money than a twelfth round, top ten money.
1. I think some may be setting them up for some disappointment. It is possible we don’t sign Cox or Wilson.
2. Cox may have less leverage because he might not get more money next year but the Cards lose leverage as it is doubtful that drafting late they get a talent as good as Cox with their compensation pick.
3. Both Salas and Craig will still be eligible for prospect lists using BA criteria.
4. Don’t know whether it is a good thing or a bad thing that we can list our 20 top prospects and neither Kozma or Jones is listed.
5. Just because he is blocked doesn’t keep Hamilton from being a prospect.
6. Jaun Castillo is every bit and more the catching prospect that Audrey Perez is.
7. People way underestimate Adron Chambers.
8. Ignore GCL’ers Garcia and Martinez at your own peril :)
After I emailed Dustin Matteson from Cards Nation, he contacted Jeff Luhnow for a scouting report on Martintez because their wasn’t one out in public yet. I’m very pleased with it. I think him and Matias rise through the system together assuming we get Matias in the country.
I was a little disappointed in Luhnow’s response (as I indicated to Dustin) as it mentioned nothing about any sink on his pitches which he must have to get the GB rates he gets.
Here is a question….a blast from the past.
What is the ETA on Mitch Harris?
He will be on active duty until I think mid-2013. We did not sign him and he has no chance of actually carrying out his baseball dreams once he comes back. Well I will put it at 2% or less of a chance.
Actually we did sign Harris – not that that improves his chances.
Linky
http://stlcardinals.scout.com/2/843129.html
Ahh! Didn’t realize this…thanks for the link. I guess he will have a shot once he gets back but still going to be SUPER rusty at an advanced age. But you never know.
My top 10, feel free to object. Obviously, this is all contingent on wilson and cox. They will define the luhnow era, one way or the other. Like many others, I’m shocked about the reports involving wilson being more receptive than cox. Yet, with all the discussions about how cox has no leverage, it still ignores some obvious facts and context. Yes, cox fell for signability reasons. If he was consensus top college hitter, there’s no real reason other than his demands for slipping.
If it comes down to wilson or cox, I take ceiling every time. I’m extremely confident that austin wilson is a future superstar. His floor is the current incarnate of delmon young.
1. Shelby Miller. Our first bonafide ace prospect in awhile.
2. Austin Wilson. Yes, cox is more of a sure thing, but wilson could be as good as heyward by age 21.
3. Zach Cox. Still a solid hitter, even more valuable at 2nd. I see JJ Hardy type of power potential.
4. Matt Carpenter. Sure, its high. But with craig and jay playing well, good reviews from goldstein, and a solid skill set means we have a good candidate for freese next year and potentially break the Hex of Hee Sop.
5. Eduardo Sanchez. One injury amongst the pen, and he’s in St. Louis, and potentially see him in October.
6. Carlos Matias. How many of you are fine with a 2015 rotation of waino, garcia, miller, matias, blair/lynn/suppan’s zombie corpse? Umm…I am. High ceiling arms need to be the next organizational philosophy.
7. Dan Descalso. Solid. Could he be a Felipe replacement?
8. Cody Stanley. I understand he’s a college kid in JC, but he has a solid combination(reportedly) of being able to hit and being to catch. If he appears to be able to do this a few more levels up, at say qc or pb next year, he could be a fast riser in this organization. If he learns the mystical art of ‘handling a staff’…watch out.
9. Lance Lynn. Might need a year or so longer than we expect. Or worse, might not be ready when we need him. If he had a solid year in aaa, there’s no need for suppan. Or maybe even westbrook.
10. Bryan Anderson. *sigh* one can dream…
I think we have had enough of Suppan’s zombie corpse this season, I would much rather the Cards call up Lynn in spite of his struggles this year than continue with SZC in the rotation. Of course, I think this is all moot now anyhow, with SZC going on the DL and Lohse’s return likely eminent. Still, should Lohse or another pitcher go back on the DL, I would prefer almost anybody at AAA or AA, perhaps even some High or Mid A guys to the return of SZC. IF SZC is back in a Cards uni in 2015 I will finally join the chorus calling for Mo’s head to be placed on a spike outside of Busch for all to see. Maybe then Brandon Phillips will respect the Cards instead of hating them. That or be afraid, either way works for me.
I agree that it’s going to be very interesting watching this play out. I have to think Lunhow is pushing hard to get them both signed with the individual players and the organization. I think he knows this is a once in ten year type of situation where the draft fell right to them perfectly and they need to take advantage. He can point to this draft everytime he wants and raise if it all pans out.
I have to think that Wilson’s parents will see the wisdow in him signing. I get the whole “college experience” stuff but come on, we are taking about a shot at $2 million plus a paid education. The only thing he gives up is being a college baseball player, he still gets the same education it just might take him an extra couple years to graduate since he won’t be a full time student. Thats a lot of money to pass up just to say you had the full “college experience”.
I have to believe that the two signings are connect even though the Cards won’t admit it. They’d be stupid not to use the leverage to drive Cox’s price down. If they can sign Wilson they can go to Boras and tell him “Hey, we already signed a first round talent and we’ll have two first round picks in a deeper draft next year, take it or leave it”. That is assuming they do have the budget to sign both for what they demand, which I’m still not sure off. The Ludwick deal was cost neutral for a reason, they could have gotten a better prospect back from San Diego if they didn’t keep all that money from Cleveland.
i think the real motivation for wilson is: take a chance on what happens over the next 3 years?
Going to have to think through my Top 10 again but if it comes down to Wilson or Cox I would rather have Wilson. The Cardinals have done very well or very poorly in some cases with taking the safer conservative pick over the high upside pick. We got Kozma over Porcello or whoever was drafted after and Wallace over Aaron Hicks. I am actually a fan of the Wallace draft ONLY because it got us Matt Holliday. This year if it comes down to signing Cox or Wilson, its another Wallace v Hicks. The best college bat and a more sure thing against a very talented player with more upside that has the options of being a true superstar.
IF we sign Cox and Wison, how long until they are wearing the REDS uniform…. hope they never wear anything but cardinal red
1. Miller
2. Wilson
3. Sanchez
4. Cox
5. Matias
6. Descalso
7 Carpenter
8. Taveras
9. Lynn
10. Anderson
Of course, my answer is “sign them all….”
Position scarcity says to emphasize signing Cox. If he can play 2B and hit, that is a premium prospect and the kind of player that is hard to find (see: 2010 St. Louis Cardinals).
Overall talent level may say to emphasize signing Wilson. The kid is a beast, and seems mentally well put together. On the other hand, the Ludwick trade just showed the value of All-Star corner outfielders. If both develop well, I wonder if you would be able to trade Wilson for Cox straight-up. I kind of doubt it–hitting MIFs are just too hard to come by. But, if you have the chance to add Wilson’s kind of talent to your system, you do it.
If we don’t sign Cox, we get a compensation pick for a strong 2012 draft class. But, Cox is already a top-10 talent, and it may not be wise to count on bettering that. If we don’t sign Wilson, we get bupkis. We only lose a 12th round pick.
AZ, where are you getting your information about the odds of signing Cox and Wilson?
On his Twitter feed, Jim Callas of BA says this: “I believe all 1st-rders will sign, w/possible exceptions of Loux & Lee.”
And in Ask BA, which posted today, he says not to read anything into lack of progress in negotiations w. draftees. Aside from MLB’s taboo against announcing over-slot signings before the deadline, the Cards tend to release information only when it improves their bargaining position. Last year, for example, it seemed like they played Miller just a bit, getting him to negotiate publicly by denying that he was asking for the moon and the stars.
This year, the same sort of thing may be going on. It’s certainly in the Cards’ best interests for fans to believe that Cox is delusional in his demands. And maybe it helps the team’s position if Cox and his agent believe that the Cards really will let Cox go if they get Wilson.
But as of today, I find it very hard to believe that the Cards won’t sign Cox, or that they don’t have enough money to sign both Cox and Wilson.
I have no inside sources, but my guess is that the two negotiations are completely separate. I don’t think the Cards would put themselves in a position where they might lose both guys, which means the smart play is to make sure they get Cox and hope to add Wilson.
The odds are my feeling based on what I’ve heard from people who know more than I do. Am I getting information that isn’t already in the public domain — yes. Is it information I’m 100% sure of — I’ve heard it from what I’m relatively sure are independent sources at this point.
The Cardinals have it in the budget to sign both players within reason. The question is whether they can find an agreement on perceived value with Cox and Wilson.
I’ve seen Callis’s quotes on twitter and AskBA a couple times. What he’s saying and what I’m writing aren’t mutually exclusive. I still think the Cardinals sign Cox; I just think the odds are a little worse now than the perception was at draft time.
Perhaps I’ve artfully written a piece that amounts to nothing. I’ll leave that for the reader to decide. I’m trying to portray the process as I understand it to date rather than pretend that I definitively know the outcome.
You indicate in your posts that the odds are better now than at draft time (now 3-2 or 2-1 vs. 3-1 at the time). Am I misinterpreting what you wrote?
Maybe I’m dumb. I usually just write in percentages so it’s entirely possible I’m getting “odds” wrong.
3-2:60%
2-1:66%
3-1:75%
So “Likewise Cox seems to have gone from a 3-to-1 odds to something nearing 2-to-1 or 3-to-2.” was intended to be read as “Likewise Cox seems to have gone from a 75% probability to something nearing 66% or 60%.”
from the little I know of horse racing and even less I know about gambling … a horse that has 2-1 odds is a better bet to win than a 5-1 horse … $1 bet gets you $2 because he’s more likely to win as opposed to $1 bet gets you $5. I’m probably wrong here.
It’s official. I’ll never use odds again. This is why I’m a degenerate engineer and not a gambler.
Anyone know anything about Juan Batista? He’s listed as just turning 17 in June and has pitched 25 innings for the DSL Cards allowing just 4 er’s, and 15 hits. He’s K’d 29 against 7 bb’s. That’s an awful good start for a 17 yr old kid.
Does anyone know what penalties are enacted against teams that pay out over slot bonuses? One always hears that teams will incur MLB’s wrath by doing it but almost every team does it to some extent. MLB cannot legally force teams to stick to slot as it has not been negotiated with the the MLBPA. I’ve heard that they could threaten to withhold revenue sharing money but obviously they don’t really do that (see Pittsburgh or KC the last several years). If I had to guess I would say the Cardinals don’t receive much, if any, revenue sharing anyway so MLB couldn’t hold that over ownership either.
I suppose MLB tells clubs they won’t approve over slot bonuses until late August but I haven’t heard of them being able to prevent them in any way if the club and player agree (unless the team is bankrupt like the Rangers and MLB is giving them money to operate).
Really looking forward to seeing Austin Wilson sign with the Cardinals on Monday!
This farm system will receive such a huge jolt if they can sign both Wilson and Cox. It would go a long way in making it legitimate again. I’m sure Miller, Cox, and Wilson (maybe) would all be Top 100 prospects with Sanchez and a couple others making noise. The progression of Matias and Taveras will only make it more exciting to watch.
Keith Law is reporting on Twitter that Tyrell Jenkins’ signing bonus is $1.3 million.
Az, I’m not going to ask you to reveal your sources for obvious reasons, but could you expand on their thoughts about Wilson please?
The conventional wisdom was that there was no way he would forego his commitment to Stanford for baseball. After a lot of discussion with the family and the visit to Busch, that conventional wisdom has waned. He’s been considering an agreement — most teams expected an outright refusal.
If this was a question about Wilson’s talent level — wait till tomorrow.
You mind explaining that to me?
Probably means he has a write-up intended on Wilson as a player.
Yes — I’ll have a breakdown of Wilson/Cox as players and what they bring to the organization tomorrow.
But did the “recruiting” trip really persuade Austin Wilson and his family that much?
Just the trip? No. It’s been the Cardinals as an organization (in all facets) that has impressed the family.
Interesting. I was still under the impression that the odds he signed weren’t even that good. I was figuring something around 5% on a good day.
Karma-THe thing with Wilson is they have played it very close to the vest the whole time. In interviews Wilson said he has 2 very good options starting his career earlier with a great organization or having a life experience that he has always wanted. He’s admitted that its probably in his best interest to get started with the wood also. No reason to put the percentage at 5 percent. He hasn’t really said anything since he was drafted that would indicate that he will be going to school. I believe the new CBA and a possible hard slotting system along with the possibility of injury before getting a good security blanket will cause him to sign with us.
Agreed. Had Wilson came out and publicly said there is no way he’d pass on his commitment to Stanford, we wouldn’t even be having this discussion. But on the flip side, he hasn’t publicly shown or said anything that would say he’s leaning towards signing with the Cardinals. You can look at his recruiting trip in two different lights, sort of a glass half fulls vs. half empty. In a half full light, you see Wilson visiting the Cardinals giving them a real chance to persuade him to sign with the Cardinals. Or in the half empty view, it’s more that Wilson is doing this more for future knowledge, along with enjoying the amenities that come with this trip. I’m probably more of a half-empty person when it comes to signing Wilson.
As for the whole CBA issue, money hasn’t been the issue with his family. They are both very well off, and from everything we’ve heard he’s got a great head on his shoulders. Worst case scenario is that he doesn’t do well at Stanford, still drafted moderately high (talking top 15 rounds here) and flops around in the minors for a little bit before “retiring.” Then he goes out into the real world as a doctor, lawyer, or something else.
I’m probably remembering incorrectly (and I’m not knocking Wilson here), but didn’t he have under a 3.0 GPA in HS. The reason for the Stanford scholarship is more for baseball. I’m not saying a kid with a 3.0 GPA in HS can’t be doctor or lawyer or whatever.
I’m sure those out there that changed majors during college realize that what you want as an 18 yr old isn’t always what you want as a 19/20/21/22 yr old. Kinda the point I’m making is that he can sign now (the career that he seems to want right now) and go to school for additional education (in case he changes his mind) and it’d be tough to pass that up even if your parents are well off.
Wilson has a 3+ GPA and is taking college prep courses (maybe even for credit–don’t know) at an academically elite school. Couple that with good to excellent test scores (that’s an assumption by me) and at least one parent who is an alum and I’d say he would have a decent chance to go there w/o baseball.
That being said, it seems like he knows going pro is the quickest way to the bigs if he develops like most people think. Let’s hope he signs and goes pro.
OK … can’t remember who I was thinking of then, but could swear it was a “signability” HS player.
Add to that that he really wants the right fit and right now he has a very good fit, if he waits its pretty much a crapshoot and he essentially has to sign with whoever drafts him after Jr. year and if he waits till he’s a Sr. he has 0 leverage. I say go with the good organization and fit rather than hope that you get drafted by a good one in 3 years. Lets say hes drafted 10th his Jr. year. He will probably get a hard slot which will be less than this year PLUS its most likely with a bottomfeeding organization. Not what the family wants I’m sure.
Again, that’s why I’d say the odds have gone up, but I’m not sure it’s as great as AZ is suggesting is might or might not be from his sources. He’s shown absolutely no indication that he’s even seriously considering a potential Cardinals offer, or whether he is still set on the idea of attending Stanford. From what we’ve heard, Wilson liked the Cardinals pitch, but hasn’t had a real stance one way or the other since then IIRC.
Yup your right thats why I’m saying no one really knows but his family. It was kind of a given he was going to school before but people didn’t really know then. Wilson said before the draft that he would be very open to going pro if the situation were perfect. Teams just assumed that meant that he would be going to college. Now that we drafted him and have had more time to explain the benefits of going pro over college you would think that being a smart family they are taking in the new information and using that new information in their decision making process. Honestly I don’t think we can even put a percentage on it when the family has been so quiet about everything the whole time. The reason I say 50/50 is based on what hes said it seems as likely that they sign as it is they won’t. Do you really think he wants to risk bing the number 10 player chosen in the draft his Jr. year going to the Oakland A’s or Arizona Dbacks or even a team like, KC Royals. Hopefully they know a good thing when they see it and they jump on it. Honestly I believe that Luhnow will know about Wilson in the next few days and then the last few days will be focused solely on Cox.