2010 MLB Draft: Which Player is the “Better Choice”?
Posted on August 11th, 2010 by azruavatar in 2010 MLB DraftZach Cox and Austin Wilson are both good players. They also represent two extremes of player development. Zach Cox was the best college bat in the 2010 draft – polished, powerful, advanced approach at the plate. Austin Wilson is a young high school player built like a someone a decade his elder. He’s raw and athletic but exceedingly talented. It’s not necessarily an either or decision for the Cardinals when it comes to these two players but, if they are mutually exclusive, which player is the better sign?Zach Cox makes an immense amount of sense for this organization right now. A refined hitter who could slot in at third or second, he projects for reasonable power, a good on base percentage and should hit for average. Cox is unlikely to be an elite defender but he should be average at either position he’s placed. Whether Cox is merely a good player versus an elite one, is likely tied to an opinion on his eventual power potential. I’m a bit more on the pessimistic side in this regard.
Cox should move fast through the system. If he signed this year, it’s not outside of the realm of possibility that he could be ready to start in 2012. Like Brett Wallace in 2008, there’s little chance that Zach Cox isn’t going to be a major league player. It’s more a question of how good he’ll be. For an organization with question marks at 2nd base and, given the missteps of David Freese, 3rd base, Zach Cox is a tremendous fit. You don’t draft for future needs but it’s awfully convenient when the best player available slots into your system so well. For those of you sabermetrically inclined, I’d think that Zach Cox is a 2 WAR player in the majors in 2012 and probably peaks around 4 WAR.
Austin Wilson is the other end of the spectrum. For a farm system bereft of high end talent, especially position players, Wilson would be a major step in restoring credibility to the minor league system. Wilson is a project though. He has incredible natural talent and athleticism but he needs repetition and time. Wilson projects as a star right fielder. He’s got a fantastic throwing arm, good speed for his size and should be fine defensively. Offensively, he has the tools to be a star. The frame projects for plus power (think ISO >.200; 30 HRs). Whether he’ll hit for average and be an on base machine is more in doubt.
The timeframe for Wilson is long term. He’d likely be in the low minors for next season. An optimistic time table would have him arriving in 2014. He’s also a much higher risk. His ceiling is higher than Cox but there’s no certainty that Wilson makes it to the majors. If he is signed, he’d be one of the top three outfielders in the system if not the best. He’s the type of player that could, eventually, carry team and be a perennial All Star. I’m bullish on Austin Wilson and, while acknowledging that he could never make it to the majors, think his ceiling is 5 WAR . . . . maybe 6 depending on how many Franklins I’ve had.
So, back to the original question. If Wilson and Cox are mutually exclusive options, who is the better choice? I think the rational decision here is Zach Cox. He’d boost the major league club quickly, is almost a guaranteed return on investment. Finding a position for him isn’t a problem and he’d be a cheap solution for a team scheduled to get more expensive in a hurry. Austin Wilson, despite how much I think of him as a player — and the Cardinals scouts are very high on him too — is less of a sure thing. He’d be a blast to track through the system but he’s more of a lottery ticket than a safe investment.
I’d pick Zach Cox if I was forced to choose but my robot heart will always be with Austin Wilson.
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I’d go for Wilson, for several reasons, with one significant caveat.
Assuming Freese comes back at 100% — there’s the caveat — I don’t see a major need to “boost the major league club quickly.” They’re going to be good again next year, and probably the year after that, with the core that they’ve got, and plugins — as opposed to stars — at 2B can always be found. Even at third, Matt Carpenter may be an acceptable plan B. I also see Wilson as being maybe a little lower risk than you do, AZ; the guy not only has the body for baseball, he seems by all accounts to have a pretty good head on his shoulders, and he WILL listen and learn and do what he needs to do to get the most out of his skills if he signs. Finally, if he signs and Cox doesn’t, there’s an extra draft pick coming next year, but not if it’s the other way around.
The caveat is Freese’s health. I would want to know just how bad that injury is. Frankly, it sounds pretty grisly to me, and if it’s career-threatening, the safe pick that fills his slot may be the better one.
I know its not the question, but I hope Cards fans are prepared for the possibility that we might not sign either player.
Considering how much damage we took at the trade deadline just to save a few bucks, failing to sign either of these players would be yet another nail in the coffin of John Mozeliak. I already feel that he is a poor GM but it’s hard to see many people defending him should such a catastrophe occur.
Can you please explain to me why he is a poor GM? I’d really love to hear something from the other side.
While I don’t buy the logic that most use for Mo being a poor GM here is what I’ve heard. Some are upset with the trades last year for Holliday and DeRosa. They say that that it really depleted our system. They then said that we were the only bidders on Holliday and bidded against ourselves and paid abotu 2 or 3 mil a year too much for him plus too many years. They also say that we didn’t get enough value out of Ludwick as it appeared that he panicked when it looked like they couldn’t get Westbrook so he offered up Ludwick.
My personal opinion is that the Holliday trade was great, and we couldn’t have known that DeRosa was going to get injured shortly after but we needed an upgrade from Thurston and Barden. He may have been bidding against himself on Holliday as a FA but really their is no way for us to know. I agree that he didn’t do his job well regardin the Ludwick trade. If it looked like the Padres were going to keep Westbrook away from us without Ludwick, we could have gone out and got someone else instead.
Quite frankly Mo is not the head of Scouting…that is Luhnow. So the pressure is more on Luhnow than Mo. As Mo is involved for sure it is Luhnow that has been full control over anything scouting and amateur talent. I won’t even address your comments on Mo being a poor GM.
First of all, it is Mo’s job to make the signings, not Luhnow.
As for my views on John Mozeliak as a GM, here is a sample.
-The Lohse extension was terrible. Multiple years + NTC for a pitcher having a career year?
-Seven years for Holliday was a disappointment, especially in a down year for free agent signings and no one else in serious contention
-The excuses I keep hearing to justify the Westbrook/Luddy trade continually impress me. Ludwick’s name never popped up in any trade rumors at all and then all of a sudden he was traded straight up for Jake Westbrook? It seems highly unlikely that this was the best the market could offer.
-He seems to be willing to bend to LaRussa’s veteran weaknesses, even agreeing with them (signing Aaron Miles, bringing up Nick Stavinoha)
-He’s made comments to the effect of “needing to bring in a clubhouse personality” or “shake up the team”. It does not speak well of his understanding of what makes a quality ball club.
Way to look at only what you perceive as the negative moves and never mention the many moves that don’t fall into this category. Your view is absurd IMO…you may have your opinion of certain moves but you seem to only look at the controversial moves and not the full body of work. I am a big fan of Mo and think as a whole he is doing a very solid job.
To be fair, you and karmaloop were asking why he thought Mo was a poor GM, and he has given some examples of bad moves that Mo’s made. I don’t see what’s so absurd about that response.
FWIW, I’ve thought for a while now that Mo is probably fairly mediocre. Not terrible, not bad, not great, just somewhere in the middle. He’s shown a nice eye for inexpensive FA and FAT acquisitions, and has run a pretty decent ship in terms of the way the FO works (esp. with the minor leagues and player development), which has to be in his favour, but OTOH the body of his work as regards trades, contracts and extensions has shown an overwhelming tendency to overpay on all counts, IMO. Some good but quite a lot of bad so far in his tenure. I think he’s probably the 2nd best GM in the division, though, so all he really needs to be (at least until the likes of the Cubs and Astros get better front offices) is a average among these midgets to end up looking like something of a giant.
I mostly tend to agree with the Monk, here. Seems like Mo is not that good at “horse trading.” On the other hand, he seems to work well with Luhnow, et. al. when it comes to player procurement and running the farm: Matias is intriguing; the 12th round Wilson gamble was an exciting idea; Edmonds for Freese would probably really look good right about now if Freese wasn’t so much like a Greek tragedy. I gritted my teeth when the Lohse deal went down; thought the Holliday contract a little too long and a tad rich; hung my head when Ludwick was shipped out. All in all, Mo makes us cringe every year as July 31st approaches. But there are, to be certain, far worse GMs running teams elsewhere. For all the brilliance of, say, a Walt Jocketty tenure, you have to concede, there’s a “Mark Mulder” on his resume as well.
The thing about Mo is that he’s a rookie GM–he’s going to make missteps early on. As far as Purple Haze’s criticisms:
-Lohse’s extension was bad, but you have to remember that Mozeliak locked him in early a month before the economy crashed, which in turn affected the free agent market. The Cardinals absolutely needed a durable starter in the rotation, and they paid the current market price for that kind of pitcher, which turned around and bit them hard.
-Holliday rejected similar offers from at least two other clubs early, one of which (Boston’s) was slightly better than St. Louis’ initial offer. The Cardinals had a choice: play hardball with a top player they really wanted by withdrawing their initial offer and going lower, thus risking ticking off said player and ruining any goodwill between the two; or tweak the original offer to compromise, which they did, giving some things that Holliday wanted (more term) but not as much money.
-No thrilled with giving up Ludwick for Westbrook, either. Seems like an overpayment. However, Westbrook was necessary with Penny down and Lohse uncertain. I’d prefer that LaRussa didn’t destroy Garcia’s arm by overloading him in his first season.
-No GM is going to run the team with an iron fist over his manager. A good GM works with his manager, who is reponsible for the day-to-day performance on the field, and when there are disagreements, picks his battles. Miles and Stavinoha are minor compared to Rasmus as a starter, Ryan as a starter, Jay taking over right field, Boggs and Motte in the bullpen, Freese as a starter before his injury…obviously, some of that is due to the fact LaRussa allowed or wanted that, but for a guy who’s supposed to be pro-veteran, there’s an awful lot of young players on the rosters. Some credit has to be given for that progress since Jocketty left.
–Disagree with the idea his made-for-public comments are indictive of his knowledge and ability to run a team.
You know, it’s funny. In 2008 folks bitched about Mo because he didn’t make a move for bullpen/pitching help at the trade deadline when, that year, the Cardinal offense was hitting on all cylinders. In 2009 he made moves early on (Khalil Greene) and at the deadline (DeRosa), and there were folks who bitched he gave up too many young relief arms. Then there was a strong sentiment that we were wasting the Pujols Prime Years and not surrounding A.P. with the talent to compete yearly for post-season, so he signed Holliday and people bitched about the contract terms. I do, indeed, hold my breath when the trade rumors swirl and Mo may be dealing and you never know who he might be dealing. But, at the end of the day, as a Cardinal fan, what Mo does doesn’t worry me as much as, say, one of those potential lefty-righty machinations TLR concocts, or the implications of one of his Alvin Darkian double-switches. If you know what I mean.
I agree with you buchek. It’s easy to criticize Mo when you’re sitting in the cheap seats. The job is hard and you don’t get a glimpse into the future to see what’s gonna happen. Everybody has an opinion of value and what might have happened had we offered just a little less value in trade, or money to a player.
Mo’s trade for Glaus was brilliant one year and a disaster the next. He locked in Lohse and for about six games it appeared to be a bargain…then injuries… We needed Lohse at the time and the money wasn’t out of line with deals for similarly talented pitchers. But, stuff happens. Now that he’s back and ostensibly healthy, he may still contribute to a pennant run.
As much as I liked Luddy, and I have been a huge fan, the trade makes sense. You can’t play 2 guys in right field at the same time and Jay is ready. If you follow Luddy’s path to the Cardinals (a Mo minor league FA signee) thru to his contributions as a Cardinal and the obtaining of a necessary arm for a pennant run, this may be one of Mo’s finest moments. Ludwick frees up money which can logically be used for draft signings… His departure stabilizes the LaRussa lineup shuffle… We have a number 2 hitter who’s getting on base ahead of Pujols at a .400 clip. Let’s not deny for a moment that Westbrook has pitched very well and our offense hasn’t really missed Luddy thus far. It is clear that Mo’s timetable for Luddy had run out. Whether that was good or bad for the Birds is too early to decipher from the cheap seats.
I still think Austin Wilson may materialize as a dividend from that financial shake up.
I hate to have to be the one to point this out….Mo just signed a 3 year contract extension…he’s not going anywhere.
So as for “another nail in the coffin” is concerned..dream on.
Mo sees at least another 2 seasons as GM.
Without regards to the compensation for not signing Cox, I’d (reluctantly) agree that I would choose Zack. However, given that we would get a top pick next year if we don’t sign Cox vs. no compensation for not signing Wilson, I think I lean for signing Wilson, in this completely hypothetical exercise.
are they mutually exclusive? Would the cardinals have drafted wilson this late if they thought they didn’t have the budget for both? would they really waste a mid-round draft pick to use solely as a bargaining chip?
Yep. If there’s a chance it gives us leverage to reduce Cox’s fee by $1m or so (or even more), it’s probably worth it from that point of view. The average 12th round draft pick is not going to be worth $1m in value to the org, and they also save on whatever bonus they’d be paying him. I think it’s a good gambit, personally, even if they never had any intention of going over slot (by a record amount, probably) to sign Wilson.
I kinda see your point – but in reality – how much leverage does this buy us? A chance at a million – what kind of chance? A millions seems steep for leverage, the cardinals could always say that “we think you are worth x,xxx,xxx dollars, not a penny more” – without having wasted a draft pick.
I don’t know, I’m not in a major league baseball front office and I’m not a player agent. What I will say, however, is that a 12th round pick is basically close enough to worthless that if you think you can save a bit of cash and/or have maybe a 5% chance at signing a guy like Wilson, it’s a decent risk to take. The alternative (picking a guy who’ll sign for slot) is likely to yield a guy who won’t make the majors about 98% of the time.
I don’t know if they’re tied to each other in any way, but I go to school at Arkansas and fro everything I’ve heard I would be very surprised if he doesn’t sign. One of my friends who knows Cox pretty well said that he will be in St. Louis right before the deadline to work out a deal, very similar to Miller last year. That doesn’t mean he is a lock to sign and that doesn’t mean we won’t sign Wilson, just a little info I’ve found and thought to pass along. I personally think the players are independent of each other and that the Cards can and want to sign both players. I know we’ve already spent a good amount of money on our current signings, but last year we were willing to spend several million on Mateo/Miller/etc. So obviously Lunhow and Mo are open to spending big money on big prospects. If Cox and Wilson both WANT to sign, we will sign them..
jws – your post made me happy.
Since the end goal is to add players that will contribute and help the big club, I’d sign Cox if I had to choose one. Wilson’s potential makes me salivate, but I agree with azru that Cox will probably be a major leaguer and contribute to the parent club at some point. The percentages are lower with Wilson.
The list of toolsy athletic h.s. outfielders who failed to make the transition to pro ball is a long one. But, .427 lefty hitting infielders coming out of a major college conference are going to find a role in the majors at some point, and contribute in some way.
Just my opinion.
I’d go with Cox too. A surer thing at two positions we need help at. If either Carpenter works out at 3b or Descalso at 2b we could aim Cox at which ever position isn’t filled. I also assume he’d be an offensive upgrade over either one should both of them make it in the majors.
I’m also worried about the possibility of signing neither. I suspect that each camp is waiting for the other one to sign and to use that as a base for last minute negotiations. With time running out that strategy could work to the detriment of all parties.
To answer the question first – Even though I know who I should pick based on the likelihood of producing at the big league level I am still going to go with my gut and say Wilson. I have been a HUGE fan of Wilson all year long and continuously supported him even with some of the negatives about his game. I think his upside is through the roof and when you are in a system that is in desperate need of upside and star power Wilson is the pure definition.
Now to my other thoughts. I agree with some that are saying the signings are not mutually exclusive. I personally think we have the money prepared to pay each player what we feel is a fair deal as an organization. The negotiations are quite different though.
Cox is all about getting top dollar with a flashy agent. It will be all about how much extra can Boras squeeze out of the Cards in the hours leading up to the deadline. I ultimately see him signing as I think in the back of him mind he knows he can’t improve his stock for the 2011 Draft and he loses quite a bit of leverage going through his senior year and coming out. The only reason you do that is to stick with school and try to win a championship at ARK. If that was the case I don’t think Boras would be his agent so I go back to thinking its going to be a battle of a negotiation and it gets done with a min or 2 left on the clock.
Wilson isn’t about squeezing as much money as possible. I think we have given his family a ton of creative options to ponder that will give a significant amount of money PLUS was to pay for his schooling in the future. Obviously the money will be good if not great but that is not what I perceive as being the final driving force of getting a deal done. Its more on the lines of the whole Wilson family agreeing that skipping college for now to pursue a baseball career is the right move. I am going to say we get him signed as well…I like to be optimistic and the way the Cards have courted him and his family it appears the odds kept getting better as time went along.
I would not be surprised if Wilson has 2 offers from the Cards at different prices. One to go to Stanford and play baseball in the summers and the other (at a much higher amount) to put off school and pursue baseball full time.
I would go with Cox also. he plays a more difficult position whichever one it is. for those concerned about power, I am not. I doubt he’ll be Mike Schmidt at 3rd for power or glove, but he HAS power, and showed it more as a frosh. His approach as a soph, was to refine his hitting stroke and it worked very well. To think he will have to be exclusively avg OR power ignores his continued development as a hitter. I think he can be an Utley type hitter at 2nd (hi end, of course), which is a very valuable commodity. At 3rd, a LH with high avg, and 20 homers a year would be fine with me. having said all that, I really doubt it will come to an either/or circumstance. If they want both, they will find the money for it. cut back on int’l bonus’s next year if you want. I know it has been said they are independent, but there are 2 good players right in front of you, I can’t believe money will get in the way of getting them both. Unless Cox wants $5-6 mil, I think it will happen for both.
My choice would be Wilson. Upside versus Known(somewhat) Quantity. The system needs both, but having someone to track like Wilson will be fun for a couple of years.
I would choose Wilson, Cox seems like a good solid player but Wilson has a much higher upside. Wilson is possibily a superstar and it’s safe to say that Cox will never be that. I’m also not sure what Cox’s ceiling even is as I’m not sure he can add power again without sacrificing average.
Maybe Cox is Wade Boggs. Boggs said he could hit 30 HR a year if he wanted to lower his average 30-50 points.
Of course if Cox was able to change his swing to hit for a higher average in one year I have every reason to believe he can tweak it some more to find some power to go along with that average.
I’ve posted a scouting report I read on him here a few times, one of his swing has a large upcut while his current one is very flat and stays through the zone for a long period of time. He wuold have to change what makes him successful as an average guy to get good power back.
My heart says Wilson, head says Cox.
My greed says —-BOTH!
Agreed! Sign them both please!
There is no reason the Cards can not sign both players other than being cheap. I am still unimpressed with the fact that it appears that the cardinals minor leagues appear to be cornering the market on undersized pitchers 6-1 and under.
Money usually talks, but sometimes a young man’s motivation is different. You also can’t blow up your budget and give the kid whatever he wants, no matter how talented. Heck, even Strasburg didn’t get the money he wanted out of college. Real world economics indicate there’s not a bottomless pit of money to throw at an 18 y/o.
If we sign both will be determined by if Cox wants outrageous money and if Wilson wants to go to college or not.
Whats your deal with undersized pitchers? How tall are Shelby Miller and Derek Hooker? Much taller than 6-1
The success rate of pitchers 6-1 and under, that have below average fb’s getting to the ML’s are extremely small. And it appears that we have a glutt of pitchers like that. As for Hooker and Miller. We all know they are 6-4 and 6-3 respectively. I wouldn’t really even consider looking at a pitcher that is under 6-1 with a subpar fb. If they throw 92 – 96 thats a different story.
But apparently your not looking at the gusy over 6-3 that we do have. Plus it’s pretty stupid to not pay attention to anyone under 6-1. A pitcher is a pitcher and develop differently.
The stigma attached to short right handed prospects has held true, but to say that just because that pitcher is under 6’2″, he’s going to be at best a league average pitcher isn’t true. Heck, look at Tim Lincecum, he isn’t even six feet tall and he’s one of the league’s best pitchers. I’m not saying all are going to turn out like Lincecum, but it’s not like there haven’t been short right handed pitchers that hold their own.
He said 6’1″ and smaller pitchers with below average fb’s.
the Cards must do the right thing & sign them both, it’s really that simple
Right, it is very simple.
Cox is a sophmore, so he will hold out until at least Sunday night. We tend not to draft sophmores high or guys unwilling to make a deal before the draft, so its new territory for fans. We will probably make him a strong offer. Then its up to him. Cash in or take his chances next year. If he is smart, he will sign. If he is not so smart, it will be fine to lose him.
If Austin Wilson has not signed yet, he may have decided to go to Stanford. No reason for Wilson to hold out to the last minute. Unless there is a deal and the Cards are keeping it quiet for some reason.
Swagerty is a sophmore too, so is holding out. His hold out is less impressive than Cox’s, given pitchers are injury prone. If Swagerty does not sign now, he runs the risk of an injury next year and getting next to nothing as a bonus. A sophmore pitcher should sign for slot in the 2nd round. If Swagerty turns down the bonus, his family is well to do or he is poorly advised.
Any deal that will be as much overslot as what Wilson would get if he signs would not be kept quiet by the Cards…it would be MLB that would wait until the deadline to announce the deal.
No reason for Wilson and the Cardinals to keep quiet on a deal. In fact, I’d think going public would force MLB’s hands to approve the deal regardless of whether or not they were considering denying it.
I think there is every reason for it to stay quite. Wilson will probably get more over slot than anyone in the draft. Not only that Wilsons money will effect our negotiation with Cox. The reason for the slotting system is so that if the number 10 pick is announced everyone in front of him will demand more money. If Wilson gets 3.5 and its announced there is no way that Cox will only accept 3. That’s the justification for keeping the deal quiet. MLB doesn’t want an 12th rounder making more money in signing bonus than a Top 10 pick. I believe if we signed Wilson’s it will be one of hte last announced.
I agree MLB might want a Wilson deal kept quiet.
I doubt we would go over $2MM for Wilson. There is no reason to pay him more than he deserves. Wilson is a bottom of the first round talent, $1MM. Pay him an extra $500K to forego Stanford.
I think you are highly undervaluing Wilson. He is a Top 10 talent and projects to be a 70-80 powerwise, and has the second best upside as a power hitter behind Harper. He is a legit 5 tool player unlike the last major 5 tool player we drafted which was Daryl Jones. He’s raw no doubt about it but he’s worth far more than 2 and I think he is probably worth more than Cox who projects to be a more sure thing to be an average major leaguer but doesn’t have the upside Wilson does. When you look at Wilson you look at Daryl Strawberry/Dave Winfield type talent.
If Wilson had been drafted in the first round, he would be looking at $1MM bonus. To keep him from Stanford, maybe we offer him another half million. That is a competitive bonus. $2MM would be very generous. $3MM is unimaginable. This would make Mo look weak to agents and hurt us in the future.
This is the US, not a competitive bidding like Carlos Matias. We solely own the right to sign Wilson. There is no reason for DeWitt to bid against himself.
The reason is because a bid too small means that we won’t get him. There is no more sign and follow. The fact that we seem dedicated to reubuilding our farm s ystem tells me they will pay what hes worth and I think he’s worth 3million. He has the upside as a hitter that Shelby Miller does as a pitcher. If he wants his education fully paid for he can drop his bonus but a little bit.
Every year there are kids who come out of high schools with good bodies and high fan expectations, but who then do not excel as hitters in college or in pro ball. Examples: Derrick Shepherd; Ryde Rodriguez; Darryl Jones; Bogany; Jon Edwards. Wilson could be a long term project. The Cards can gamble $2MM, but Wilson is not a sure thing.
If Wilson would have been picked in the Top 15 picks or so (which I believe if he didn’t have such a strong commitment to Stanford he would have been) then slot would have been AT LEAST $1.5M. And rarely do highly touted HS players take slot…so it would have been at least $2M to get him signed. Now since he has such a strong college commitment it will take more…how much more is the big question. So you have to assume the discussion starts at $2.5M and I personally have said a few times that it will take $3.2M and college tutiton IF he signs. But we shall see.
Given the fact that we’d get a draft pick for Cox next year, in a deeper draft, and that we don’t often get to draft kids like Wilson, I think Wilson has to be the answer.
agree
Cox was ranked 8th in the nation. Can we get as good a talent with the 25th pick next year, even if it is a deeper talent pool? We want to get Cox done this year and will go to $3MM.
I doubt we get a better talent than Cox, as when teams get compensation for the previous years pick they usually play it safe because that pick doesn’t carry over to the next year again.
Good point. Its in out best interest to sign Cox now.
Cox is in STL now, I believe they said he is going to be taking BP today. Jenkins was in STL last night throwing a bullpen for Duncan and LaRussa. I believe if Wilson is going to be signed he will have already signed. Can’t have 2 major negotitions going on at the same time. Luhnow’s visit to LA last week was either to finalize the deal or to hear no thanks, one last time.
Keep in mind it is not uncommon for a player to be brought in a few days before the deadline to take a physical without a deal being done. But typically it means the 2 sides are at least in the ballpark of one another and feel a deal will get done.
I would also disagree that would couldn’t get a better talent next year. If you look at every draft there are always Top 10 guys sliding for XYZ reasons. Not saying I don’t want to sign Cox but I am saying we should have a shot at a solid talent if we don’t. The key to remember is the pick next year would be a use it or lose it type scenario. So then you have to take a signable player.
So you take a more signable pick with your first round pick you recovered, but you take the tough sign with your other pick. Besides, at this rate the pick we receive for this upcoming season will be higher than the one we would recover.
I gotcha. I was just making sure everyone remembered that the pick would have to be a safer pick…so if a Top 10 talent fell to this pick we wouldn’t be taking him…but if he was still there with our other pick in the 1st then maybe we pounce on him. But I was just stating a fact that some may be overlooking.
The Cards can handle multiple negotiations at 11 pm on Sunday night. Its no problem, just part of the game.
I’d pick Porcello over Kozmo. Just sayen.
FWIW, Cox. But I’d be perfectly happy with Wilson. I don’t think we can really go wrong as long as one of them signed.
The real pity is that we missed out on the Hayden Simpson sweepstakes.
I’d be happy with either one. Cox may be more of a better bet and a higher ranked player in the draft, but there’s that supplemental pick the Caps get next year while getting a guy who was supposed to go in the first round.
‘Course, both would gasmatic.
IF Wilson decides to sign, we’ll hear something more Saturday night. I have a hard time seeing Austin Wilson and the Cardinals going down to the wire. Wilson on Saturday night, and Cox on Sunday night if we are to hear anything IMO.
Goold wrong that the Arizona Republic is saying that Swagerty may go back to school, and also noted that internal organization sources are confident that the team will sigh all 3 top level prospects. Let me copy and paste.
“First-rounder Zack Cox is expected to sign, though both sides have described it as a final-day signing. As reported in The Post-Dispatch, VP Jeff Luhnow recently met with Austin Wilson and his family — again — in the LA area as the Cardinals continue to woo their 12th-round selection. The Arizona Republic reported that there’s a chance Jordan Swagerty (second round) will return to school, though the Cardinals, internally, are optimistic they’ll sign all three of their remaining top-shelf picks.”
Someone also wrote this with a Mo quote in it. Interview with Mozeliak on Cardinals Pre-game Live said, and i’m paraphrasing, “We have until Monday at 11, St. Louis time, to come to deals with our 1st and 2nd round picks”……I might just be nitpicking here, but wonder why he didn’t say “with the rest of our picks” instead, and just singled out the 1st (Cox) and 2nd (Swagerty) round picks?
Is there a realistic chance that Wilson has already signed, and its not public because it’s incredibly overslot? I just have this feeling about it that Wilson is already signed. If I’m right, I’m going to go play the lottery immediately. If I’m wrong, well, it wouldn’t be the first time
I expect Cox to sign last minute like many of the first rounders will this year. And I’ve gotten the feeling that Swagerty is leaning towards returning even before you posted this.
Two theories to add to your Mo quote, one you rarely ever hear of GMs specifically mentioning picks outside of the first rounds in any sport especially baseball. Besides, I think we would have already gotten a leak of even a report that he had agreed to a deal.
As much as I would love to believe that Wilson has signed, I just think there would have been something reported as a leak. It’s almost too quiet for a deal to have been struck.
I think reporting that a 12th rounder gets first round money would upset MLB MUCH more than leaking that a first rounder went overslot. Other players that have’nt signed yet finding out how much Wilson makes throws off the pay scale. At that point every first rounder that hasn’t signed yet will ask for more than Wilson, because “he’s only a 12th round pick. Much worse for MLB that Wilsons deal gets leaked than a first rounder.
as far as Wilson goes, he had this huge commitment to Stanford. If, after going thru the recruitment process, he was still commited to school, why wouldn’t he announce that and say, “thanks, but no thanks”. it was his original choice and to say he was sticking with it would be no big deal. but he hasn’t. if it is this late in the process and he still has not said he is going to Stanford next year, I think there is a very good chance he will sign. if they can agree on a price, he is a cardinal. and I have to think it will be 2.5-3 mil, but for top talent, that is the going rate so pay it. you can’t get a player with his potential each draft, when they fall into your lap, you have to go full bore to get them, IMO.
And that’s the reason why I think the odds of him signing have gone up significantly. Maybe I’m a glass half empty guy when it comes to signing them, but I still don’t see or hear enough to say that he is seriously entertaining the Cardinals offer. Like I’ve said before, I don’t think the money would be the holdup and I’d expect a deal in that range.
I completely agree with Dan, and honestly feel a deal is almost in place. Goold said internally the Cardinals are optimistic that they will be able to sign the remaining 3 players we are heavily targeting. Not sure when he got this information but it must have been recently. It almost mentions that Cox will be a last day thing. I’d love to have Swagerty and Blair move through the system together but right now he is the least of my worries. He can’t be allowed to take wooing time away from Cox and Wilson.
Now Goold is claiming Cox and Wilson have always been “longshots” to sign. The Cards did NOT say Cox was a long-shot when they selected him, so this is a reinvented history in order to set low expectations. Why? Either one or both will not sign and fans are prepared. Or one or both sign and fans are excited to have expectations exceeded. Typical lowering of expectations before the big day.
Goold thinks they will sign Swagerty. He would be well served to sign.
All will be revealed by noon Eastern time tomorrow.
Is that from Goold’s twitter? If so, can I get a URL link to his twitter please or if it’s an article.
I’ve never doubted the signing of Cox. But, I’ve also considered the Wilson signing a better than even likelihood. That we are still courting Wilson reinforces that belief. Wilson isn’t going to Stanford any time soon.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_a5347e2d-9304-5bcd-923f-0d0f57c021cc.html
How do you guys interpret Goolds article? They expect Cox to sign at the deadline or just one of the two? Someone mentioned that the team factors in limited resources as a reason its a longshot to sign both? Is that a signal to Wilson or Cox to lower the price? I think if anyone Cox has a higher asking price. What does everyone think?
Cox all the way. I’m not going to act like Wilson isn’t a talent, but by not advancing himself his senior year at the plate, I have no idea what he projects as.
Cox could be a with the big league squad in 2012. The system needs some one with the advance-ability.
Cox will probably require 3 years in the minors (2011-13).
How to interpret Goold? The Cards are setting low expectations via Goold. His article means nothing. Tuesday morning we will find out what happenned. My guess is we will land Cox, Swagerty, and Wilson, all three, unless one or more has outlandish bonus hopes.
I think a fair ETA is 2012 for Zack Cox. But again, that is assuming he doesn’t suffer any major setbacks.
I honestly don’t read much into Goold’s article TBH.
Do you read into Mo’s comments of a good chance at 2 of 3?
I personally think he feels 100% confident that he gets 2 of 3 signed so he is setting expectations. And if 3 of 3 signs then its just a bonus. As a GM you have to be very careful what and how you say things. I think he is just setting realistic expectations and if all 3 get done then great…a bonus.