Comments on: Daily Farm Report 8/30/10

By: Ryan

Ryan — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 22:39:37 +0000

The Arizona Fall League rosters have been announced (well, at least partially). Cardinals players participating are:

Pitchers-
Brian Broderick
Blake King
TBA
TBA

Hitters-
Tony Cruz
Pete Kozma
Adron Chambers
TBA

The last TBA was listed under infielders. Had read Cox was likely to go to the AFL, so I’m guessing it’s him.

By: allan

allan — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 21:43:39 +0000

Good study… but last night was his 11th start since the All-Star Break, so his stats look like this:

IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L G GS
66.3 60 22 10 19 65 2.99 9 2 11 11

According to Tom Tango’s Projections of AAA into MLB translation, this would be his line for MLB:

61.0 66 31 15 24 49 4.57 6 2 14 8

This would be comparable to anyone we have in the #5 starting slot for 2011. That seems like a lot of homeruns, but Lynn is pitching in the PCL, I am not sure that Tango takes that into due account. ZIPS & CHONE has perhaps a more realistic homerun figure.

ZIPS has Lynn projected :
119.0 124 64 14 55 77 4.85 5 7 28 23

CHONE projected him at 12 HR allowed and a 4.68 ERA.

Of course, projections are not based on actual performance… as in the case of Jaime Garcia though, no projection study ever gave him a chance of putting ROY figures up in his first full season.

As Joaquin Andujar would say, “ya never know.”

By: Tackle Box

Tackle Box — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 21:01:48 +0000

Yeah, I think it’s Swagerty. Not sure why or how I got it in my head, but that’s got to be it.

By: Aaron

Aaron — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 20:01:43 +0000

Jordan Swagerty and Seth Blair, the Cards’ other two high pitching draft picks this year, both have some reliever talk attached to them. Blair has been a starter up ’til now but the caveats about his command needing work has led to some mention of relief work, and Swagerty was a closer in college. The Cards are going to try him as a starter as well for now, but he’s got a smallish frame and big effort in his delivery so the prevailing thought has him in the ‘pen long term as well.

Maybe one of those guys is who you’re thinking of?

By: jjray

jjray — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 18:24:30 +0000

We need a sixth starter stashed in AAA next season. Who really thinks Lohse will stay healthy? Garcia has an injury history as does Carp. Lynn is fighting PJ and Otto (who knows what to expect from him) to be the first starter called up in 2011. Either way I gotta believe Lance Lynn gets some starts in the MLB in 2011. Cards fans have to be pulling for him to be successful to avoid having to dig up the corpse of Jeff Suppan once again.

By: Pierce

Pierce — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 18:07:53 +0000

I think it was Keith Law who made the comment that Jenkins isn’t as raw as some people are making him out to be.

By: JC

JC — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 16:49:12 +0000

All reports I have read up to the draft and after have him pegged as a raw starter with potential to have up to 3 above avg to plus pitches. Control and delivery are a question mark right now but that is expected with a 4 sport athlete that hasn’t focused enough time on pitching yet.

By: Tackle Box

Tackle Box — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 16:47:31 +0000

I don’t know why, but I thought he was always looked at as a reliever. I must have him confused with someone.

By: Tackle Box

Tackle Box — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 16:46:39 +0000

why exactly are people saying that his re-signing is getting “iffyer?”

The only time I hear it is when someone on a blog writes it in their comment.

By: CRay

CRay — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 16:24:48 +0000

a nice end to the season and a nice number of innings pitched – he’s currently at 153 this year and pitched 148+ last year – looks like he might really be the innings eater that he is supposed to be – and, like JC, I expect Lynn to start in AAA next year and be the potential 5th starter when injuries hit at the major-league level