Zack Cox vs. Matt Carpenter: Battle for Third Base
Posted on August 30th, 2010 by azruavatar in Matt Carpenter, Zack CoxAfter having seen Matt Carpenter in Springfield a couple weeks ago, I found myself questioning what the Cardinals have created for themselves in the selection of Zack Cox overall. I think they’ll have created a situation that is much to their advantage.
Matt Carpenter and Zack Cox are not terribly dissimilar players. Both players have questions about their defense at the hot corner. Cox’s range is sub-par according to some scouts and Carpenter’s throwing motion is unconventional. There’s some hope that both players would be league average defensively. The true calling card in both cases is the bat.
Cox has a short, compact stroke and the lefthander is capable of spraying the ball to all fields. He’s capable of drawing a walk and the secondary skills in his plate approach to support a good on base percentage. Depending on who you ask, you’ll get a different opinion of his power potential. The bat speed should allow him to drive the ball effectively but the plane of the swing may not be entirely conducive to hitting homeruns. Personally, I like him as a 20 HR hitter with good doubles power. He’s not a power machine but the overall offensive package should be well-rounded and potent.
You could describe Matt Carpenter in a similar way. I’m not as high on his power potential as I am Cox. Carpenter profiles better as a top of the order hitter with exceptional strike zone judgment and plate approach. His swing isn’t as compact or quick as Cox but his pitch selection is superb, which compensates.
Cox was considered the most advanced and polished college bat coming out of the 2010 draft. Matt Carpenter is already playing in AA and dominating. Where the Cardinals will play these two next year should be a source of great interest.
The first point of consideration is that it’s too early to write off David Freese. I’m not nor have I ever been on the Freese bandwagon but, prior to his injury, he was getting on base at a steady clip. His recent surgery makes him questionable for the start of the 2011 season and, even then, injury questions will linger for the foreseeable future. Even with David Freese at full health, I’m not convinced he’s a better player than Matt Carpenter but the team is unlikely to demote Freese to the minors as it would damage his perceived value until he started producing again. More likely is that Matt Carpenter will start the year in AAA. That leaves the team with, to my mind, two options regarding Cox: 2nd/3rd base at Springfield or 2nd base in Memphis.
I’m inclined to see Cox start at Springfield because the coaching staff there is fantastic. Derrick May does great work in Springfield and Pop Warner is a very good manager. If the club is going to refine the swing of Zach Cox, I want Derrik May to get his hands on him first. In either case, I’d also prefer to see Cox move to second. He’s played that position sparingly in college but the reality is that the Cardinals continue to have a huge deficit at the keystone. (Daniel Descalso makes more sense if he can play shortstop or as a utility player. There’s not enough bat there for the majors on a daily basis.)
So, where do the Cardinals play Cox next year? The other recent polished college hitter they drafted, Brett Wallace, started at Springfield the year he was drafted. I think that’s the likely landing place for Cox. I think it’s also likely that they’ll play him at third there and evaluate whether one of Carpenter or Cox should move to second further into the season. In either situation, the Cardinals have a sudden infusion of talent at the hot corner should the need present itself in the majors again.
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if you had to guess, which is more suited to 2b duty – cox or carpenter? or would either of them be an abomination before the gods of baseball?
I think there’s enough natural athleticism there for either one to make the transition. I’d favor Cox since he’s already played there before. They’ll need a year in the minors to work out the kinks, imo.
I am a little skeptical of some of these draft scouts who try to profile players defensively. You (Az) were knocking Carp’s range earlier based on this and now having seen him I take it you are not overly concerned with this but with his throwing. Cox may or may not be the same situation. I think Cox’s range is less likely a problem. If he has the range for 2B he probably has it for 3B though there is the reaction/first step angle. Of course we have to remember that the minors is for development so maybe both can still improve defensively.
Luhnow has said Cox will be a 3B. I think they like him better defensively there. I think his future at 2b/3B will depend on Freese. I think Cox will start the year at 3B and if Freese shows he has fully recovered Cox might move to 2B during the year. If Freese doesn’t recover fully, I can see them leaving Cox at 3B for now s to not be putting all their 3B eggs in the Carpenter basket.
Luhnow has said Cox will be ticketed for PB next year but depending on ST he could go up to AA or down to QC. (personally I’d be shocked to see him at QC).
I think criticisms of Carp’s range were understandable. I was impressed with both his first step/reaction and his arm strength though which mitigates concerns about his lateral movement. I probably have softened my stance on him defensively though relative to earlier.
I think it’s a waste to send Cox to Palm Beach. They’re going to have to find a spot for Matt Carpenter in the near future though. He won’t need much longer in the minors.
Another possible factor here is Niko. I was really down on him after last year but he has comeback strong. He seems to be developing some power and his batting eye is good (like to see a few less K’s though). I assume he goes wherever Cox doesn’t. If Cox is the Springfield 3B, Niko will stay at PB. If Cox goes to PB, Niko might get bumped to Springfield.
Interesting piece. I wonder if Dan Descalso’s abilities at 2B might fully compensate for his relative lack of power. He’s hit the ball quite well at Memphis. He has an OPS of .791. For comparison purposes, I will note that Brian Anderson has an OPS of .789 and Tyler Greene has an OPS of .831. Given the travesty that has been St. Louis Cardinals defense this summer, I’m looking forward to see what he can do in spring training.
I suppose, objectively (which is largely the virtue of a robot’s evaluation), Descalso may not have the oomph in his bat for a long major league career at second. Still, I think wistfully of Daniel Descalso often when I see A. Miles step to the plate for an at-bat or watch Skip struggle with a ground ball. I catch myself in a daydream of a T. Greene/D. Descalso platoon at second (a sort of cheaper 2-man replacement of F. Lopez–all the Flip with half the calories). I know…..futile idle dreams as summer wanes.
I’m worried about how much of the interest in Descalso is because of his Springfield numbers. I’m becoming more and more wary of offensive performances in that park as time goes by.
I try to be unbiased when assessing our prospects. I am not thinking Descalso will be an all-star but if he hits .280+ 35+ doubles and 10+HR’s and plays solid D then I am happy. That is a solid contributor at 2B. I am not sure how his defensive rates though. I just see a pretty good hitter that is a good gap hitter and will get quite a few doubles. I like him as a solid regular over his career.
Those numbers are my best case scenario for DD also. I suspect that he would have a pretty big defensive advantage over Cox and Carpenter. I believe that the reports are that he is average at 2b but has turned a very high number of double plays for whatever reason. I’m skeptical about turning someone into a good major league second baseman in the space of a year so the offensive advantage for Cox or Carpenter would have to be large enough to compensate.
I am not saying these are best case scenarios…but what I think should be the expectation. I might be a little high on the doubles but nothing else is out of the ordinary IMO. I am not saying you should expect this in year one but once he gets settled in as a starter for a year. Hopefully I am not overlooking anything…but he has been fairly consistent.
I am a DD optimist but these do seem to be the best case numbers for him. In general I agree with you and if he maintains this ceiling he’s my 2bman of the future.
If we cast doubts on the offensive production, we have to appreciate more teh pitchers. Kopp and Broderick with ERA’s near 3.00 should actually be considered better than they are.
On the other hand, I won’t apologize to anyone for the way my imagination tends to run-on about Cox and Carpenter. They are intriguing. I fondle my journey-man apprentice Hyperventilating Geek Union card in a discussion of those two.
They are similar players. One thing I would say is that we all get so caught up in power potential that I think we forget to notice sometimes that the game is changeing at the MLB level. Busch is a very neutral stadium and HR’s just aren’t flying out anywhere like they use to. We are slowly seeing the shift back to OBP, speed, defense and one or two thumpers in a line up (look at San Deigo). In my opininon, guys like Carpenter and Cox are going to be highly valuable in five years. While I think Cox can hit 20 HR, if he hits 15 with a OBP of .380 I think we’d all take that. From what AZ says about Carpenters at bat management skills he could easily be a .290/.350+ guy. Play slightly above averge defense with those numbers, give me six of those guys with Albert, Holiday, and strong pitching and you’ll win 95 plus every year. My point is in five years their won’t be vhardly any 30HR guy’s at 3rd and none at 2B.
I’m pretty sure Wallace started somewhere in A-ball. I definitely remember him spending some time in Quad Cities but I’m not sure if he was anywhere before that.
I think it’s a big jump from college to AA baseball, even for an incredibly polished bat like Cox. I’ve been a huge fan of Cox and I think he will be a great player, but I think it would be beneficial to at least start him in Palm Beach. If he’s tearing it up he can get a quick callup to Springfield, but I think it’s the more logical place to start him. I thought I saw an interview where Lunhow said he planned to start him in Palm Beach next year, but I think it was pretty unofficial so I guess we will all see..
He started in A-ball the year he was drafted. Similarly, Cox is in the GCL right now.
Ok… I’m going to ask a question. Nothing personal… just asking… not attacking…
If I guy has limited or average range at 3rd, what makes him better suited to play 2nd where range is a big factor?
Why would the big league club not wait it out this season and get vet like Omar Infante or even a jose reyes and move him over?
“If I guy has limited or average range at 3rd, what makes him better suited to play 2nd where range is a big factor?”
It’s not about whether he’s better suited to play there — I don’t think anyone is saying that — it’s about whether that can get both Matt Carpenter and Zack Cox into the same lineup.
“Why would the big league club not wait it out this season and get vet like Omar Infante or even a jose reyes and move him over?”
1. Cost.
2. Good second basemen aren’t always available on the free agent market. Omar Infante is a utility guy having a career year and you’d have a hard time convincing a guy like Reyes to sign with you in order to play 2nd base when he’s a true short stop. I doubt you’d move either player to 2nd and just flip a switch and they’d be fine. It would take anyone a good deal of time to get used to playing at 2nd rather than 3rd. If they’ve got the athleticism and skills to do so, it might be worth it though. Cox has played 2nd before.
there really are not many – if any – good 2b out there. positional scarcity is really driving the push to get one of these guys at second. here’s the list for next year for 2b from cots.
Willie Bloomquist KC
Mark Ellis OAK *
Akinori Iwamura PIT
Jose Lopez SEA *
Kaz Matsui COL
Aaron Miles STL
if that doesn’t just make you physically ill, i don’t know what will. getting someone who is a 2-3 win second baseman would be a huge boost to the club. descalso is nice to have internally, but doesn’t look like he will be a star. kozma is a longshot. it would be nice to see either of these guys leap forward and be a good 3b. it is the natural state of baseball blogging to be greedy and wish for both a 2b and 3b out of these guys.
That’s a sad little inventory there.
Having come up as SS, is there no chance Craig can go to the AFL and see if 2b is an option with him. I still believe he will be an above average major league hitter. I wish we could find a place for him to play everyday.
Not saying you couldn’t but realistically he is not fit for a permanent spot in the infield. He is a LF/RF candidate only IMO. He could fill in at times at 3B but only when necessary. After watching a team play poor defense most of the year I am not wanting to see us start throwing guys at positions they can’t play very well. We have lost plenty of games due to defense. The Cards have been all about solid D and ground ball pitchers for some time so this year has really shown what can happen when your defense fails you.
Agree wholeheartedly. I’ve had enough of players trying to do the defensive job out of their bailiwick. I want a professional baseball player at each position. I don’t think that Craig or even Cox or Carpenter should be switched to 2b unless it’s really determined that their skill set works best there. At this point Descalso seems like the best option there and I hope he gets the chance next year.
I’m sure your right. I’ve been a big fan of Craig’s bat for a while and just wish we could find a place to put it to use.
In looking at the stats today.. Why isn’t Carpenter the 3rd baseman for Memphis now? Really looks like he should have been given a shot after the break.