Comments on: Cardinals 2010 Draft Using WAR History

By: Andrew

Andrew — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 21:39:51 +0000

Thanks for the feedback and corrections.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 21:38:47 +0000

Thanks.

It would be interesting to see if we could do another round of researching checking the picks from, say, 00-09 in the next five years. Might be able to get better answers on your question of High ceiling prep vs. fast-moving college. It’s a long process, though.

By: sportsman

sportsman — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 13:19:08 +0000

interesting approach. the key for the cards, though, is if they are going to plan on “filling from within” is to see how their draft picks are doing, regardless of whether they still play for stl. the historical WAR values for x, y round talent can be compared to what the cards picks are doing. are we getting above or below average WAR from our first round picks? if the cards are to stay in the playoff hunt year after year, our drafts will have to be better than our competitors in terms of real production. i suspect this is hard to do, and makes it critical to go outside the draft if you are always drafting late, and to take advantage of talent dropping because of contract demands (like cox and jenkins this year). are we doing that?

By: Gregatron

Gregatron — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 01:05:09 +0000

Great post.

I wonder if the standard deviation for the mean WAR is higher for high schoolers, which would sort of mesh with traditional wisdom of “sure things” versus “high ceiling” players.

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 21:40:11 +0000

You got the correction in the calculation but still incorrect in the write up.

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 21:39:05 +0000

How much is a WAR considered worth these days?

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 21:28:15 +0000

I’m sorry but didnt STL have 5 picks in the first 3 rounds – 1 first, 2 sup firsts, a second and a 3rd? (Cox, Blair, Jenkins, Swaggerty, Tutuliavola (or however you spell it).