When I saw Aaron Luna in August, I wrote:
Same kind of scenario as Brown. Good speed, weak outfield arm. If I questioned Brown’s bat, Luna’s seems even less likely to play at the majors as a corner outfielder. There’s just not enough power or secondary skills there
Looking through some statistics recently, I am continually caught off guard by his numbers and how good they are. There’s a reason for that though.
In the last two seasons, Aaron Luna has been hit by a pitch 52 times. 24 in 2009 and 28 by the lastest count in 2010. That’s gotta hurt. The current leader in the MLB is Richie Weeks who has been hit by pitch 23 times. So Luna’s not that far off! Well the only downside to that is there’s little evidence that getting hit by pitches is a “skill”. Of the 12 players with double digit HBP in 2010, just 3 had double digits in 2009.
Luna may be good at getting his lean on or bad at dodging balls — (throw a wrench, if you can dodge a wrench you can dodge a ball) — but it’s highly unlikely that this is representative of a skill on his part. He’s merely been subjected to some bad control pitchers and a lot of subsequent welts.
What happens if we recategorize his HBP appearances? Let’s assume that for those 52 PAs, he will have a distribution similar to the other 725 PAs he’s had over the last two seasons. Here’s his outcome distribution in those 725 PAs:
| Event | Percentage of Outcomes | 52 HBP becomes |
| Single | 13% | 7 |
| Double | 4% | 2 |
| Triple | 1% | 0 |
| Homerun | 4% | 2 |
| Walk | 14% | 7 |
| Out | 60% | 31 |
There’s some rounding going on in and some sacrifice flys/bunts that I didn’t mess with. That leaves us with 3 HBP after we convert — a much more common HBP total. So what does his seasonal line look like after that?
His 2009-2010 numbers modified to reduce the HBP from 52 to 3 produce a .271/.359/.489 (AVG/OBP/SLG). The other caveat to add is that 61% of his plate appearances have come in Springfield, which favors hitters. Luna has been good and I’m not trying to take that away from him. Statistically, even after the assumptions, he’s still been a good player. It’s just a caveat that the HBP drastically inflates his on base percentage by 40 points.
That adjusted set of numbers would put his performance behind Matt Carpenter and, the player I compared him too, Andrew Brown in terms of production. With Luna being transitioned to a corner outfield position, the threshold for his offense is much higher than it was at second base.
Note: This post is not intended to be a rigorous statistical regression of repeatable skills. It’s “A Quick Look”. Please read the assumptions in that spirit.
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Well Aaron Luna has been able to repeat getting hit by pitches for 3 consecutive years now so I’d say he has some skill (or mindset) for it. I think a more reasonable projections is that his rate drops by half from about 9% of plate appearances to about 4-5%. It cant be that much the pitchers he faced or others on the team would have high totals also.
The 4-5% range still puts him close to .900 OPS. almost no one his age in the TL putting up those kind of numbers. Is it the Springfield factor? Using the park factors calculation at minorleaguesplits.com only reduces his OPS 2-3%. Is that not a valid tool? The other thing about the Springfield affect is can we say it about hitters but not pump up the performances of our Springfield pitchers? Do Broderick or Kopp’s ERA’s look incredibly good given that Springfield is their “home” park?
I think Luna will go as far as his defense takes him. Unfortunately I have little feel for that. I am assuming if he is a marginal 2B man than he’s probably average athletically in the OF. Dont know about the arm.
Brown is 26, Luna is 23. I think Brown has a much tougher road due to age, less athleticism in the OF, and less experience in the OF. That said, when Brown gets on fire he puts up some crazy numbers for short spurts. If he could carry those spurts out longer or have a few more of them he could put up huge numbers.
I have Luna ranked in my second 10 (close to 20) and hopefully he can put up another good year at Memphis next year.
The Springfield/Texas League and HBP factors probably do skew some of the offensive stats. But like you said, he’s still got decent numbers, even taking those into account. Could someone with more knowledge of Cardinals prospects suggest to me why he was moved off 2b?? Limited range? Bad hands? He’d be even more exciting, of course, if he’d been able to stay on the infield. (I mean, after all, we trot Schumaker out to 2b nearly every day–and, don’t get me wrong, I like Skip). For a corner OF, the power numbers might not be there. But if I remember from his Texas high school football days, he does have a decent speed. If you combine that with an acceptable OPS and at least gap power, then you’re starting to get into the neighborhood of a right -handed version of a J. Jay.
“The other thing about the Springfield affect is can we say it about hitters but not pump up the performances of our Springfield pitchers?”
Yes, I think so.
Can you elaborate why you think there is a difference. If hitters stats are inflated from Springfield than pitcher’s stats have to be affected negatively to almost an equal extent dont they?
My apologies. I did not fully read the phrasing of your question. I meant that I think we have to view pitching performance in the same context so Kopp and Broderick’s pitching should be considered accordingly.
Everyone is talking about the Springfield park factor. Factor this Kopp and Broderick’s ERA is lower at home then on the road and Springfield pitchers overall ERA is lower at home as well. Is it the park? Since it is a hitters park why aren’t their ERA’s higher at home? Remember Springfield still plays half their games on the road.
It’s less about Springfield and more about the league (though SPR does have some crazy park factors). You can view various park factors at http://statcorner.com/
Luna played football. He’s tough.
Its strange people talk of Luna as a 2Bman. He played 2B his second year at Rice, then moved to OF. If he could play 2B, the Cards would be playing him there.
Luna was a running back in football. He should have more speed than Brown and better ability to defend LF or RF.
Yeah but if he can’t hit for power then he doesn’t help us much as a corner OF unless his OBP is off the charts. Our system has a glut of fringy corner outfielder types. Austin Wilson where art thou?
Freddie Vina knew how to take one in the shoulder…
don’t get it
if luna did not profile as an infielder
doesn’t have the arm or power for the outfield
why did they draft him?
seems we are overflowing with catchers who can’t hit becoming pitchers
infielders who can’t field becoming outfielders
and then we tty to make skip an infielder because was in college (and even thinking returning craig)
so was luna
shouldn’t they be trying to help him become a more useful player by giving him more time to develop in the infield?
Went to the Springfield Cardinals website and looked at the team stats and league batting leaders stats.. Here’s is what I found on Luna there.
In comparing outfielders…
leads league in HR with 15
4th in league in RBI with 54 in 99 games and 303 Abs
Moore @ 61 – 123 games, Orlando @ 61 – 115 games, Peterson (our old guy) @ 59 – 123, Carroll @ 55 – 127 games
1st in walks at 62
Overall:
league leader in OBP @ .435
7th in SLG @ .482 – leader .613
3rd in league in OPS @ .917 – leader 1.020
9th in league in HR @ 15 – leader 27
5th in league in BB @ 62 – leader 72
In Memphis during his brief stay
44 AB
5 walks, 1 hr, 1 triple, 1 double
OBP .327
SLG .341
OPS .668
In looking at the 2nd baseman in the Texas league, the two guys that stood out in a quick glance were Giavotella @ NWA and Van Kooten @ Tulsa… Seems Luna’s stats are pretty favorable to those guys..
I am no scout, so take it for what it is worth, but have had an opportunity to see Luna play a half dozen times this year and a couple of times last year at Hammons Field in Springfield. I agree with azru that the park is kind to hitters. That being said, I would be hard pressed to identify Scards hitters in the last couple of years that impressed me more (in a small sample size) than Carpenter, Luna, and Pham (in the couple of chances I had to seem him before he was hurt). Carpenter and Luna just rarely fail to take a good at bat. They always seem to control the count, and if it is to their advantage (again in a small sample size) work deep counts. It should be noted that Luna is a different hitter (and much better hitter) against lefties. Of the two, I would argue that Luna has more raw power.
I don’t have any empirical evidence to back it up, but could the seemingly outlier hbp number be the result of the “book” on Luna being that the way to get him out is far inside. Maybe the scouting report says he can’t turn on the pitch or he swings and misses at a higher rate or something like that? Biggio is one extreme case that comes to mind that tells me there is a chance he could get on base 10-15 times in an average year via this route if there is some reason (becoming increasingly likely as time goes on) that this keeps happening.
On defense I would say he doesn’t embarass himself, but doesn’t really stand out either. I would characterize him as an average corner outfielder defensively.
[...] legitimate skepticism regarding Luna’s hit by pitch totals (24 and 28 HBP’s in 2009/2010 respectively), his ability to reach base is encouraging, [...]
[...] legitimate skepticism regarding Luna’s hit by pitch totals (24 and 28 HBP’s in 2009/2010 respectively), his ability to reach base is encouraging, [...]