Pretty straightforward here. Three prospects that took a step forward in 2010, and three that did not. Let me know y’alls three up/three down in the comment section, too.
Three up:
- Shelby Miller (Quad Cities/RHP/1990): While Miller was already the top prospect in the system entering 2010, he certainly raised his stock with some exceptional results. In 97.5 IP, Miller posted a 2.75 FIP, with a 11.52 K/9 to boot. While Miller did struggle with some consistency inning to inning, some of the hits that fell can be chalked up to bad luck (.358 BABIP). Miller strengthened all three of his pitches in ’10, and has some talent evaluators wondering if there’s a pitching prospect in baseball with higher upside.
- Oscar Taveras (Johnson City/CF/1992): Taveras enteted the year relatively unknown to most of us, but a hot July, projectable frame, and five-tool skill set has me thinking big upside. Taveras is a left-handed hitting international signing from the Dominican Republic, with the arm and speed to play center. Just 18-years-old, Taveras is a big kid at 6’2 and 180 lbs, with room to fill out. He posted a line of .321/.361/.524 with 8 homers, 13 doubles, and 3 triples. Taveras had some good luck on his side, and struggled against left-handed pitchers, but at with his age and tools, he has plenty of room for development.
- Matt Carpenter (Springfield/3B/1985): Carpenter took a step forward in 2010 at two levels, both low-A Palm Beach, and AA Springfield. While the knock on Carpenter has always been that he won’t hit for enough power at a corner, Carpenter showed signs of some pop at Springfield with a park+luck-adjusted SLG of .452 coupled with an exceptional .410 OBP. I still don’t think above-average power will be part of his game in the majors, but his ability to get on-base exemplified in ’10 showed me he has actual potential to get to the majors.
Three down:
- Daryl Jones (Springfield/OF/1987): Jones stunk. See my post from last week… Major disappointment this year.
- Lance Lynn (Memphis/RHP/1987): Lynn took a step backwards in his first attempt at AAA-Memphis. After a stelar stint at Springfield in 2009, Lynn had trouble keeping the ball in the park with a 1.13/9 in 2010. While his strikeout and walk-rates improved, Lynn was very hittable, allowing 164 hits in as many innings. I’m certainly not ready to dismiss Lynn’s potential as a solid middle of the rotation arm who can eat bulk innings, it would have been nice to see Lynn have a little more success in ’10.
- Robert Stock (Quad Cities/C/1989): Stock was a pick that many, including me, loved from the 2009 pull. He had success early in his first year of pro-ball at Johnson City, getting on-base, hitting for power, and showing potential for some above-average receiving skills behind the plate. However, since his promotion to Quad Cities, he’s been putrid at the plate. He was .213/.300/.277 in 2010.
Entries (RSS)
I’m not as down on Lynn considering he was pushed somewhat fast for someone everyone billed as a mere innings eater. I expect another full year at AAA (unless he somehow pulls a Garcia in the spring), with just a little improved numbers and ready for the #5 spot in 2012. Never saw him as better than a 4/5 starter with upside of #3.
Stock moves out of ‘three down’ if he switches to pitching in the offseason. Maybe give him 1/4 to 1/2 season more of catching.
Agreed about Lynn, but any way you spin it, Stock took a step backward this year. If he has to switch to pitching to have a pro career, that just about defines ‘step backward’ for someone who’d been a hitter.
No love for Tommy Pham on the upside?
I dunno, I think that’s kind of harsh for Stock. A lot of people thought he should have just been a pitcher from the get-go. Part of the reason he was such an exciting pick was that, if catching didn’t work out, he seemed to have a really good back-up plan (which, again, maybe should have been plan A to start).
Stock wasn’t a 2nd round pick as a pitcher. If the plan was for him to pitch, we should have drafted him later.
Also Lance was much better over his last 10 starts with a 3.79 era over 60 innings and a 62/18 K to bb rate. He was a little inconsistent though over those 10 starts with 16 of the 25 er’s coming in just 3 of the starts and the other 7 all allowing 2 or less. I’m not sure I’d say he made much of a step down when you consider he turned 23 during the season at AAA.
+1 Couple Lynn’s significant improvement in his last 10 starts with how fast he was pushed through the system and I’d have to say our expectations for Lance (a back of the rotation innings eater) are still intact. Can Lynn sustain what he has accomplished at the end of the AAA season in 2010 again in 2011? If so, he puts himself into contention for a 25 man roster spot in 2012. For a 2008 draftee who turned 23 this season, that’s right in line with what we expected. If he again stumbles at AAA in 2011, then we have a problem.
Thank God we didn’t hand over Shelby for Oswalt. We’d all be sitting here wondering why we gave up the prize our system for a guy who couldn’t get us within 5 games of Cincy.
Can’t argue with any of those choices although Lynn really did turn it around in the second half and, as mentioned, Stock may have a better future at pitcher.
Other “UP” guys.
1. I get the feeling that everybody else knows something really bad about Matt Adams and aren’t telling me what it is. Barring a late season injury he may have won the Midwest League triple crown at age 21. That followed some serious figures at two levels last year. C’mon guys, tell me what it is so I can get off this lonely band wagon.
2. Derek Hooker. Young guy, pitched well at QC and then, after an adjustment period, at PB. Might be something along the lines of a Lance Lynn type prospect.
3. Pham. Actually good stats in the FSL, very good stats in the TL topped off by what looked like a breakout series and then…..Looks like we get teased till next year.
4. Ryan Jackson. Nothing exciting but he just might hit enough to bring his glove to the major leagues.
5. Virgil Hill. Interesting late season and playoff streak for the athletic one.
“Downers”
1. Joe Kelly. I know he gets some love here so he must have “stuff” that hasn’t translated into production yet.
2. Frederick Parejo. Still plenty young to come around but I suspect I just overrated him.
3. Grabiel Hernandez or whatever his real name is.
I’m not that down on Kelly. I think he should have been given a little break during the year, ala Shelby, since he was used as a reliever in college. I think someone, prob Az, posted that he has the #1 groundball rate in the league this season. I think the Ks will come also.
easy:
I saw Adams play (only) 2 games this year, so take this for what it’s worth. He can hit but is another guy defensively challenged, even at first base. In one game, he looked horrible defensively though he looked better in the second game. Having seen Chris Duncan play first base at the same level, I think Adams is definitely better than Duncan but towards that end of the spectrum. Perhaps Adams will improve defensively, but there does not appear to be an opening in St. Louis for a first baseman or a leftfielder (ala Duncan) hopefully anytime soon.
I also am not that down on Kelly. I think he really wore out at the end of the year, having been a reliever in college. Parejo I will agree with. Saw him last year and his athleticism was great. Hoped he would take a jump this year but did not.
As to Andrew’s main entry, I was actually fairly pleased with Lynn. Though he obviously could have performed better, he did throw over 150 innings this year (along with 149 last year) with some success. I see him being a candidate for 6th starter next year and likely in the rotation in 2012.
Thanks for the report on Adams.
Watch for Trevor Rosenthal. Played at Johnson City this year. Consistent 95-96, touches 97-98. Over 4-1 SO/BB ratio, WHIP .94 Look for him to start in Quad Cities next season. Coach who will remain nameless says he has better form than Miller. Only thing that can keep him out of MLB is his change – has to slow it down more. The obvious question – 21st round – how did that happen? Brace yourselves. Trevor was tossed off his HS team his senior year for having………wait for it………Skoal Bandits in his bag. Coach fell victim to his zero tolerance policy that probably cost him a state championship. Trevor looked great at Juco. My theory is the coach wanted him back for his sophomore year and talked Trevor down to depress his draft position. Mission accomplished except after looking at Trevor closer, the Cards forked over 92K. Trevor opted to get the hell out of Dodge (actually Ark City, KS).
Congrats to the Cards for getting this kid. The Royals didn’t listen to me. Dumbshits.
Interesting. Will keep an eye on him.
Unlike last year, I think there were a lot more ups than downs this year.
Gorgen certainly would have been a big up if he had continued as he was doing without getting hurt.
Pham was a pleasant surprise for me as well.
On the down side, Jones wasn’t much of a disappointment for me as I had mostly written him off. Castillo at PB regressed tremendously. I doubt he can bounce back.
Overall though, a good year for the system both team wise and individually.
is a .358 BABIP really that far out of line considering the league?
I knew I would take flack on Lynn… I liked his second half, too, just thought the first half was bad enough to note.
Yes, Pham is definitely on the rise.
Lynn had a acceptable season for a AAA rookie.
I discounted Lynn too until someone on this site reported his second half stats.
edgar lara with his 17 HR and his 73 RBI had a accepable season and hi need to improud his strike out
Any love for Adron Chambers for the trending up group?
I like what Adron Chambers has done this summer. I’d put Nic Longmire and Cody Stanley in there, too. We have several good prospects at catcher, but for some reason, I just took special interest in Stanley from the start. Longmire gives me hope that some day, some way, we might matriculate a corner outfielder to the parent club who has a power feature in his offensive portfolio. He’s relatively low in the system, so he has a long way to go. We’ll see.
As far as the disappointments, it’s been an overall downer of a summer watching the parent club. So, I think I’ll just wait for another time to consider those amongst our minor leaguers who were especially discouraging. I like to divide my disappointments up some times, so as not to be overwhelmed.
Nothing to add, but I really enjoyed the comments here. Thanks all.