Firs tbaseman in the minors are the bane of my minor watching fun. The offensive requirements for first baseman are much higher to offset positional adjustments of playing the easier defensive position. Added to that is the reality that a lot of first baseman are poor defenders and I have a hard time getting excited about first base prospects.
The last time I was interested in a first base prospect was Brandon Buckman. . . he was cut after several years in the organization with lackluster offensive performances. Balancing the concerns of adequate offense and athletic performance (or lack there of) is a challenge. Often people err too far to the side of enjoying the power of first baseman without recognizing their shortcomings. I’m prone to the opposite. This season Matthew Adams played his first full year in the system for the Quad Cities River Bandits. Let’s see what the stats have to say.
Matt had 510 plate appearances in the Quad Cities this year compiling a slash line of .306/.351/.537. The first thing that jumps out to me is that his line reminds me of Allen Craig and several other Cardinal prospects with an on base percentage that is heavily dependent on their batting average. Adams walked 33 times this season leaving him with a meager 6.5% walk rate. He’s not a high strikeout player either as Adams does a respectable job of putting the ball in play.
Adams also hit 22 homeruns this year. That number somewhat undersells his power though has he racked up 41 doubles as well. StatCorner has Modern Woodman park as being inflationary for homeruns. The park features a deep centerfield but shorter fences down the lines so I find this believable. The overall park factors (relative to wOBA) are very slightly pitcher friendly. Adams had a strong .231 ISO.
His batted ball profile is in line with his BABIP meaning that there’s little reason to believe that he’s been getting lucky with his hits. There may be a small warning sign in the line drive percentage, which StatCorner has at 14%. That’s not very high and while his power will help him with balls that are classified as flys, the number of groundballs Adams hits has the potential to be a drag at some point.
Even with the caveats above, it’s very difficult that Adams 2010 campaign was anything short of successful. Relative to league average he was something near +20 runs on offense over 500 PAs. Adams has shown, statistically, that he can hit. There are realistic reasons to be concerned about Adams, defensive ability and conditioning being foremost and interconnected in my opinion, but 2010 was an impressive full season effort from the 2009 draftee.
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Thanks for the spotlight on Adams. I’ve been surprised that, with our dearth of good position prospects, he hasn’t gotten more attention. There are a couple of other things that might indicate his hitting is for real. First he had a .947 ops in his ’09 season split between Johnson City and Batavia. Also he got off to a slow start this year, a possible reason for the lack of attention, but his second half stats at QC were pretty monstrous. His weight (230) and stat page picture don’t scream out “finely tuned athelete” but there’ve been a few other chubby sluggers who’ve had careers.
According to this article, it looks like Adams might get an OF shot next year.
http://www.centredaily.com/2010/09/23/2226920/adams-bat-has-cardinals-attention.html
We need to remember that the MWL is one of the toughest hitting leagues and QC is slightly tougher than the league average.
Az, really surprised you were ever high on Buckman as he was always much older than league average and you seldom support those types. (or maybe your experience with him helped shape that opinion)
I fell into the trap of liking him because he wasn’t the prototypical out of shape first baseman slugger. Not a mistake I’ll make again.
Adams to the outfield should be Adam Dunn-esque. His range will be atrocious.
Buckman had a bad body for 1B, skinny. At 1B, we want some heft.
Buckman racked up numbers from being old for his league.
Adams is going to stay at 1B. Its his best position.
Jeez that picture answers my questions about why people aren’t as high on him as his stats suggest they should be. He’s… uh fatter than I realized. Hard to believe he can play the outfield but it does show that the big club thinks a. that they’ll sign Albert and b. that Adams’ bat needs a chance to play somewhere.
P.S. If you liked Buckman you’ve got to love Cerreto.
That pic doesn’t really represent him very well. Now, I’m not about to say he’s skinny, because he’s far from it, but in that pick he’s wearing a baggy shirt and bending over. The shirt makes him look “fatter”.
He’s a big dude, no doubt about it. But, I’m not sure I’d call him “fat”. I doubt he’s as big as Prince Fielder although, there’s really no way to see how big Fielder is either since his uniform is like 5 times too big for him.
When does Zack Cox get added to the Surprise Rafters roster? Or is he not going to play in the AFL?
Never mind I see he was just added
Whew, Adams is a big boy indeed.
Have to think he would draw some interest from a team looking for a DH a few years down the road.
I saw Adams play twice this year. In the first game, his defense was awful, and brought back memories of when I saw Chris Duncan (try to) play first base at the same level – not quite as bad, but in that general direction. In the second game about two months later, his defense seemed better, though it’s hard to tell based on such a small sample whether he had improved or there were fewer plays in that game. In any case, I can see the argument for moving him to the outfield as they did with Duncan, since Adams can certainly hit.
I like him. I think he’s a solid masher and yeah his production may mirror Allen Craig, which is a good thing. Neither one takes a lot of walks unfortunately, but that can change in the next 2 to 3 years. His value may be in the American League, but that means he’s useful trade bait. If the world as we know it collapses and Albert leaves via free agency, I could see Matt taking over 1b and doing an adequate job. I think he has a good future for sure. Give em hell Matt Adams!