Question: Is this the best set of pitching prospects the Cardinals have had in their farm system since Jeff Luhnow took over Scouting & Player Development?
The barren days of the farm system seem remarkably barren in retrospect but that’s not for a lack of pitchers in the system. A look at the 2005 Baseball America Prospect Handbook makes a case for a system built on pitching prospects. While many of the prospects would suffer ignominious ends, at the time it was a strong cadre of arms composing the core of the Cardinals farm system.
The top six Cardinal slots in Baseball America’s 2005 Prospect Handbook were occupied by right handed pitchers. Of those six, one would be classified as an unmitigated success, three have had varying degrees of major league exposure and two never amounted to anything in the majors. Let’s start from the top with Anthony Reyes.
Reyes is probably the most polarizing prospect for internet-active fans in the last decade. It’s easy to forget the stubborn headbutting that went on between Reyes and Duncan in the wake of the LaRussa-Rasmus spat. Simply put, Reyes and Duncan did not see eye to eye. Prior to reaching the majors, Reyes was regarded as a “front-of-the-rotation starter, from his body to his stuff.” He featured a mid-90s fastball with a slider and a changeup that both projected well. At the time, Reyes was regarded as a blue chip prospect.
Following Reyes on the list was Adam Wainwright, who obviously has experienced more success than anyone could have expected. Regarded as having an upside “nearly the equal of Anthony Reyes” the Cardinals had two front end starters entering the Triple A rotation. My favorite quote regarding Wainwright is that “the curveball might be his best pitch.”
Blake Hawksworth (#3) was still listed under the premise that he’d return fully healthy from the various surgeries and setbacks he’d encountered. At #4, the Cardinals had Chris Lambert who was well regarded (remember he’d only been in the org for a year) as a potential front line starter. Stu Pomeranz (#5) was just out of the low-A organization with a good two-seamer and lots of potential development. The last prospect, Brad Thompson, was regarded as a useful future reliever after pitching 49 scoreless innings in Double A.
So, with pitchers like Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez at the forefront and a deep set of impressive pitchers (Joe Kelly, Deryk Hooker, Scott Schneider, David Kopp) progressing through the system, I’d argue that this is the most impressive set of pitcher’s we’ve had in the system in the last 10 years.
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Last 10 years? Here, for contrast, are the pitchers on the BA list for 2001:
1. Bud Smith (ranked ahead of our current first baseman, FWIW)
3. Chad Hutchinson
4. Chance Caple
5. Nick Stocks
6. Blake Williams
8. Gene Stechschulte
10. Josh Pearce
11 Clint Weibl
12. Jim Journell
14. Luther Hackman
15. Chris Narveson
I’ll spare us all the second half of the list. In fairness, I think most of the guys on the list were felled by injuries. (IIRC, a bunch of those guys got hurt the next year, within a few weeks of each other.)
Chris Narveson currently plays for the Brewers and has 0.3 career WAR, but he was dominating high-A hitters as a 19-year-old before his injury. And of course Bud Smith was part of the Scott Rolen trade, which added 25 WAR.
In terms of intrigue, don’t for get about Lynn, Jenkins, Gorgen, Freeman, Blair, Swaggerty and King. While none of them is an S.Miller, the mass of them should result in league average or better right-handed relief over the next 5-10 years. Now, if only there was a way to alter the game so that right-handed middle relievers became as valuable as 5-tool shortstops….hmmm.
Jenkins from many accounts I have read has the potential to be a #2 starter. He was my favorite (signed) draft pick from this year.
I disagree. Jenkins upside is #1 starter, I think. He always gets the Dwight Gooden comp (it might also have something to do with the fact that he’s black) but he’s so damn athletic and has so much projectability that I think #2 upside is selling him short. His chance of reaching that upside, on the other hand….
I agree that he has excellent potential and has the opportunity to become a #1. However, I was just stating many of the reports I have seen. He is a #1/#2.
I’m dying to see what kind of upside Carlos Matias demonstrates next year. I have been burned reading too much into DSL stats before so take this line with a grain of salt: 0.76 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 28 H, 14/78 BB/KO in 59 innings. Most of what I know about him is limited to what I’ve read here* and the stats he compiled since signing. He’s lived up to that advance billing so far. Any idea where the Cards plan to start him in 2011?
* Glowing report from BA’s Ben Badler here: http://www.futureredbirds.net/2010/06/02/cards-to-sign-1-5-million-pitcher-carlos-matias/
What does it say about our hitters in 2005 if none could rank ahead of some of those guys!
Not sure if your list (Az) was how you rank our pitchers but if it is I wouldnt consider the group much better than 2005.
One thing interesting about the system today is more depth of pitchers. No one knows if Walters, Dickson, Lynn, Ottavino, Gorgen, Broderick, Kopp, Additon, Nieto, Thomas, Schneider, Castillo, Hooker, Kulik, McGregor, etc. will break through into the majors. Even if none do, its positive there are so many of these guys. They consume innings and help the Cards protect Miller, Jenkins, etc.
Does anyone know how old Martinez turned out to be (post name-change and visa)? I’ll still like him if he’s 22, but it would be pretty sweet if he’s an honest 18.
Was 18 during the season, has since turned 19. (DOB 9/21/1991)
Amazing how often those name changes occur. /Amaury Cazana’d
Thanks!
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Some optimistic memories of Anthony Reyes. By the time he reached the majors, the weak elbowed Reyes was throwing 90, not mid-90s. He did have a good changeup yet had problems locating it. His breaking pitch was not good. Its not surprising Reyes did not encounter a lot of success, with just a change plus a mediocre fastball and breaking ball. People who blamed Duncan were in love with their imaginative hopes for Reyes.
OTOH, Wainwright had a very effective curve. This has been a go-to outpitch that has served him well. Adam also has a sinker. While Wainwright is not a flame thrower, he has achieved a great deal in the majors by having a variety of effective pitches.
Oh Anthony Reyes…a case of a player not buying into the coach’s plan. Watch yourself Colby.
Waino on the other hand—-a player buys into the coach’s plan and has great success because of it. When we got him, he was #2 upside. Now, he is a #1 (legit!). Dunc, TLR, and Carp are the variables. Now, a lot of people blame Tony for Ank’s flameout (a fair assessment). However, Waino was not handled much differently (closing out the WS and whatnot). What gives?
To the thopic—an exciting group is down there no doubt!
I don’t blame Tony for anything more than trying to baby Ankiel. If he had just come out and said, this kid is our best option and started him from the start we would never blame Tony for Ankiel’s meltdown. If the kid was such a basket case that you felt you had to protect him then you should have gotten him a pyscologist sooner.
Amazing what drafting for upside can do for a system.