I’ve had the question posed to me previously and Derrick Goold had a well written piece (does he have any that aren’t?) about Kozma in the Arizona Fall League. Quoting:
Some of the others, like Blake King and Pete Kozma, are out playing in Arizona to win a spot on the 40-man roster or impress another team enough to take them in the Rule 5 draft.
As I’ve said previously when asked about the situation, it just doesn’t make sense to me that Pete Kozma is being auditioned for anything.
The question that immediately comes to mind is what are the other options at SS in the upper levels of the minors. The club has Tyler Greene under control; Donovan Solano can play there in a pinch and Kozma got most of the time at that position in AA. In Palm Beach, Ryan Jackson received the share of PB laying time after an in season promotion.
My read on the organization is that there isn’t a player behind Kozma who is clamoring for a promotion. Tyler Greene would seem to slot in nicely on the big league club (at least hypothetically) leaving a lack of competent fielding shortstops between AA and AAA.
I’m not part of the Pete Kozma fan club by any means but it seems obvious to me that there’s a positional need at SS within the farm system. Even if you think Kozma never amounts to a major leauge player, in 2011, he’s vital to fielding teams in the minors. So it’s unclear to me why he’s perceived as being on the 40-man roster bubble.
If there’s any wild card here, it’s whether some other club will try to snag him as a backup. Potentially, the Cardinals could be trying to “sneak” him through the process without adding him to the 40-man roster. I find it difficult to believe that an opposing club is going to 1) Rule V draft him after an anemic 2010 performance or 2) be able to stash him on a major league roster for a full season. This isn’t a reliever you can toss into low leverage situations. This is a shortstop position player who, unless you want to play with a 24-man active roster, needs to be capable at the major league level.
Pete Kozma is in the AFL to work on something. Maybe it’s his swing, maybe it’s his throwing motion or maybe it’s something else. I don’t see a scenario where this is an audition, of any kind, for Kozma for big league clubs. The Cardinals need him in the organization for 2011. Whether he’s in their plans long term is another question entirely.
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The Cards probably will add Kozma to the roster, in any event, to protect their investment.
I think the PR risk of losing him is too high for them to risk exposing him no matter how slim the chances are of him sticking somewhere else all of next year. Just the PR of your #1 pick not being worth protecting is bad enough in itself.
WTF?!? Isn’t Kozma protected because he is a HSer from ’07? Wouldnt just the College draftees from ’07 be eligible? Very strange? I must be missing something….
This article makes no sense…he was drafted out of highschool…this would only matter if he were drafted in 2006…they do not need to place him on the 40 man.
He is in the AFL to work on his terrible defense and pitch selection…He will be ticketed for AAA, then put on the 40 next year (assuming he plays well enough)
He was 19 when drafted and signed in 2007 … 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, must be protected in 2011. If I remember the age thing right that is. I think it used to be HS vs. college, but changed to age in the last CBA agreement.
Wade’s got it right. Kozma must be protected because of his age when drafted. It is age, not HS or college status that determines how many years until you have to be protected.
I thought Koz going to the AFL had implications. DG apparently think so as well. It’s hard to fathom how they would give on him so early (especially a position that is of substantial need within the Cardinal organization) but JMo has a squirrelly history with his 40 man roster choices so one never knows. I never thought Perdomo would be exposed to Rule 5, but he was.
i for one am ready to never see or hear about kozma ever again. it was a stupid move to draft him & it’d be stupid for the org to hold onto him & hope he turns into something he is so clearly unable of becoming
I’m with GDM. I don’t know if I’d normally be that harsh on a starting AA shortstop his age but I’m tired of waiting on Kozma to develop. That’s impatient — and overly judgmental because he was an easy sign-ability selection — but that’s the way it is. He will have to become an average MLB starter for many of us in the HPGF to be satisfied. Sad but true.
really? how many starting SS are under 25? he has time to develop still and if he can become a utility guy can still be valuable to the team. I’m not saying he was the best pick in that draft slot, but we could have done worse than someone who ends up being a utility guy. He should definitely be protected even though he hasn’t developed to be a starting SS to this point.
Agree with Wade. I don’t see how we toss Kozma onto the scrap heap so early. A league average MLB SS with three pre-arb years left has value. To me it is worth-while holding on that assets. But I haven’t seen a matrix of all the players who need to be added to the 40 man for protection from Rule 5. It may be that exposing Kozma is the lesser of two evils and his sucky #s in the AFL actually help the Cardinals (by making Kozma an unlikely Rule 5 pick).
The question, though, is whether to use a 40-man slot on a guy who MIGHT be a useful “utility guy” in four or five years. Utility guys aren’t exactly rare birds. In fact, I’d claim the Birds have had too durn many of them in the last few years. If he can be accommodated on the 40-man with ABSOLUTELY no exposure of scarcer commodities, fine. But there should be no contortions or rationalizations to do so.
Put differently: how excited are you about reserving a space on the 40-man for someone whose upside, 4 or 5 years from now, may be a young Aaron Miles?
Agree with the Kozma-doubters. I don’t see any reason you’d include him in the discussion for the 40 man except that he’s a former first rounder and this organization likes to be able to say that they haven’t whiffed on first rounders. I wouldn’t care about that except that you’d have to cut a valuable player to keep Kozma.
I also don’t understand the rationale of keeping him in case you need a AAA shortstop. #1, it would be shocking for another team to take him in the Rule V draft. #2, there will be minor league free agents out there who can play SS at AA and AAA who are probably even more likely to become a major-league quality utility man- low standard that that is.
Aaron Miles NEVER EVER should start at SS. If Ryan went down, Miles couldn’t fill in for a month at SS. Koz is billed as a defensive SS yet he commits an above average number of errors. We’ll get better metrics on him when he plays a year in AAA. Koz isn’t a young Miles but I can’t honestly disagree with those arguing he’s nothing better than future utility MI. I’d like to think there is hope but, right now, he sure does profile as a utility MI.
Kozma certainly hasn’t blown anybody away, but he has progressed at an average pace in my opinion for a guy drafted out of high school. Kozma has been bitten by the error bug, but he is considered to have above average range at the position. The error problem should fix itself. Kozma added a bit of pop this year, although the Texas league is a bit of a hitters league. I just don’t understand why people can’t be a little more patient. Pete Kozma at 22 – 23 years old or Tyler greene at 26 – 27 years old…..who has more upside? Kozma clearly. 2010 is a make or break year. I suspect that Kozma might start off slowly in AAA, but as he has consistently done, he will adjust. Its time to get off Kozma’s back a bit. Lets see what he does in 2011 before we write him off.
More upside? Greene undoubtedly. more power, more speed, has hit for average at times. Probably better range and stronger arm as well. If you want to talk about who will do better over their career you could get a valid discussion but greene’s upside far exceeds Kozma’s. The chance of him reaching his upside is another question.