Zach Cox is currently sporting a .533 OPS through 31 ABs in the Arizona Fall League. It’s nothing to get worked up about but the Cardinals certainly have eyes on him during his time in Arizona. There’s been speculation about the level that Cox will start at next year; I’ve done my own wishcasting in that regard. His performance in Arizona will probably play a role but this isn’t the first time the Cardinals have drafted an advanced college bat in recent years.
Let’s take a look at some fast quotes from Baseball America at the time of the 2008 and 2010 drafts.
Brett Wallace, 2008:
Many see the best natural hitter in the West. Wallace has a strong swing with above-average bat speed; his swing path stays in the zone a long time and he has outstanding plate discipline.
Zach Cox, 2010:
Cox is the best pure hitter and top sophomore-eligible player in the draft. Cox has very good hands, a short, lefty stroke and nice command of the strike zone.
Great hitter, strong swing, good command of the strike zone.
Brett Wallace, 2008:
Defensively, Wallace had made just eight errors at third in 50 games, and he has at least average arm strength to go with nifty feet. Scouts that think he could stay at third compare him to 2007 Indians first-rounder Beau Mills, who also had questionable skills at third. Those that don’t care for him cite his body and the short careers of players built similarly, such as Bob Hamelin.
Zach Cox, 2010:
Cox is a decent athlete with fringy speed and range at third base. Not all scouts are sold on his defensive ability. He does have a strong arm–he threw in the low 90s as a reliever a year ago–and will put in the work to improve his reactions at third base.
A general, if vauge, discontent among scouts regarding their defense.
So you’ve got a player who seems polished and capable offensively but with significant defensive questions. There’s plenty of room for working on their defense in the minors but where at?
The Cardinals started Wallace at the Quad Cities and jumped him past Palm Beach to Springfield later in 2008. Wallace was tearing the cover off the ball at the time so the decision was simplified to some extent. Still, I think it’s telling that he started off in the low minors. Arizona Fall League statistics aren’t going to clue us in to Cox’s starting location. Scouts and front office members will likely let Arizona influence the decision based on what they see.
The Brett Wallace comparison seems apt though and I think it should give us some insight into where Cox will start. Considering how well Matt Carpenter performed to date, there may not be as much urgency to get Cox in the high minors as would have otherwise been the case. The Cardinals may be more content to take Cox’s development at a slower pace with a focus on cleaning up his defense.
Entries (RSS)
QC would be a disappointment for the best bat in the draft to start. Yes, Wallace started there, but Cox will have had the AFL and a full Spring training under his belt which Wallace didn’t.
Just as a side trivia note. Aaron Luna (also 2008 draft class) started off with Wallace at QC and was actually promoted before him (to Palm Beach). Luna also had a higher OPS at QC than did Wallace.
Best bat does not mean most advanced, necessarily.
Remember also that Wallace was drafted at the end of his Junior year in college, and Cox was drafted as a Sophomore, so there’s a year’s difference in development. A start at QC would not be a disappointment for Cox, I don’t think.
I believe he will start @3rd at Palm Beach. (Niko @ Springfield, JRod or Cerreto @ QC).
One difference at the time, however, is that the Cardinals were, ostensibly, deeper at 3B then than they are today. Glaus was having a strong season with the big club and was under contract for 1 more season. We had Freese and Craig at the upper levels of the organization as well. Today, the situation in St. Louis is much murkier, in that Freese seems to have injury issues and may or may not be healthy when the season starts. Carpenter had a good season but he’s hardly a top prospect so the expectations of a rapid rise through the system may be greater with Cox than they were with Wallace. There was no urgency to move Wallace through the system but necessity may convince the organization to try and move Cox through quickly. I’m not saying that’s the right move necessarily, just that there will be a powerful incentive to move Cox through quickly.
Interestingly, The Lesser Carp (would the nickname “Koi” be inappropriate?…) has been getting very positive reviews from Kevin Goldstein — the same Kevin Goldstein who had negative things to say about Cox (and was labeled an “assclown” in a comment in a different thread as a result). It’ll be interesting to see the relative rankings of these two when Kevin puts out his top-11 column for BP in the spring.
Is Z Cox going to start aty 3rd base? I thought there were some rumblings of him moving over to 2nd? Much, much more upside if he can be a 2nd baseman.
I don’t know if this was mentioned in a previous thread but on Klaw’s chat from last week (10/21) he said something that shocked me a little bit re: Cox.
Jason (Muskegon)
KLaw…what have you thought of Zach Cox so far in AFL? Still think he could be called up mid-2011?
Klaw
(1:49 PM)
Yes. I understand they toyed with calling him up for the stretch run this year until they fell out of the race at the end of August. He’s not that far off with the stick.