Archive for October, 2010

Question: Is this the best set of pitching prospects the Cardinals have had in their farm system since Jeff Luhnow took over Scouting & Player Development?

The barren days of the farm system seem remarkably barren in retrospect but that’s not for a lack of pitchers in the system. A look at the 2005 Baseball America Prospect Handbook makes a case for a system built on pitching prospects. While many of the prospects would suffer ignominious ends, at the time it was a strong cadre of arms composing the core of the Cardinals farm system.

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Top Hitter (counting stats): Matt Adams, 21 bRAA
Top Hitter (rate stat): Raniel Rosario, .450 wOBA

Top Pitcher (counting stats): Shelby Miller, 25.8 pRAA
Top Pitcher (rate stats): Shelby Miller, 2.82 tRA

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As reported by Bird Land, the front office came down with some bad news for 14 ‘future redbirds’ yesterday, most notably, Trey Hearne, a 28th-round pick from the ’05 crop. Hearne didn’t do much for me, but some liked his groundball mold as something that could advance. After some success in the lower levels, his lack of command caught up to him, especially in 2010 when he averaged a 5.1 BB/9 over the span of three levels and 60.1 IP. Here are the rest of the players who were released:

Alberto Rivero

Joe Babrick

Matt North

LaCurtis Mayes

Yorbel Alcala

Moises Colorado

Jon Edwards

David Kington

Anthony Forseca

Chris Notti

Richard Racobaldo

Colt Sedbrook

Travis Lawler

Fly high, baby birds.

AFL stuff starts Tuesday. Our friends at ESPN should have some pretty good coverage over there (if you’re an Insider, of course). We’ll try to keep you guys as updated as possible with anything Cardinal related out in the desert.

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The Surprise Rafters will open their Arizona Fall League play this week on October 12th. The team features 8 Cardinals prospects:

  • Brian Broderick
  • Ramon Delgado
  • Blake King
  • Jordan Swagerty
  • Tony Cruz
  • Zach Cox
  • Pete Kozma
  • Adron Chambers

Obviously the big name there is Zach Cox as his performance in the AFL could have a direct impact on where he starts his 2011 play. Keep an eye on Brian Broderick and whether his one-dimensional pitching repertoire can handle more talented hitters. Jordan Swagerty also gets his first taste of professional baseball. Swagerty will be blogging about his experience here.

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Firs tbaseman in the minors are the bane of my minor watching fun. The offensive requirements for first baseman are much higher to offset positional adjustments of playing the easier defensive position. Added to that is the reality that a lot of first baseman are poor defenders and I have a hard time getting excited about first base prospects.

The last time I was interested in a first base prospect was Brandon Buckman. . . he was cut after several years in the organization with lackluster offensive performances.  Balancing the concerns of adequate offense and athletic performance (or lack there of) is a challenge.  Often people err too far to the side of enjoying the power of first baseman without recognizing their shortcomings.  I’m prone to the opposite.  This season Matthew Adams played his first full year in the system for the Quad Cities River Bandits.  Let’s see what the stats have to say.

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I had the chance to sit down for a few minutes to discuss the Minor Leagues with newly promoted Farm Director John Vuch last week. Check it out:

FR: How much will your role change from your previous job as Minor League operations to now Farm Director?

JV: Well it will change quite a bit, because now I kind of have more direct input as far as what the moves will be, the staffing, and that sort of thing. Obviously, I’m still going to lean heavily on our field staff and with Gary LaRoque who’s going to be serving as an advisor to me, as well, but the main difference is I will kind of have the decision on player moves, and that type of thing.

FR: When you go into player moves, how much time goes into the decision to promote or demote a player?

JV: Most of the time it’s done long before you actually see the move,  because lots of times moves are reactions to injuries, so my goal is, when there’s an injury, we already know who’s going to take the place of somebody should something like that happen. A big thing is talking to our manager and rovers to get a feel for who is playing well, who might be in over their head at a level, but really our goal is to be a little on the conservative side, and not, you know, rush guys into a position where they aren’t ready.

FR: The minor league teams had a ton of success this year, how much of a value do you place on team success compared to maybe individual players progressing more in a process, or statistically?

JV: I think definitely there are two functions: developing the player, and the other is winning. Developing the  player is always the priority, because I mean our main function in player development is to produce major league ready players, so you never want to do anything to stop the development of a player. That being said, the two aren’t mutually exclusive. Winning is an important thing, as well, in terms of learning how to play the game the right way, doing the things that it takes to win a ball game, whether it be hitting behind a runner, or situations where you’re playing as a team. The other benefit of playing for a winning team is, a lot of times when a team is out of the running, you get guys trying to pad their stats, where as when the team is playing for a playoff spot, that kind of keeps the team together and has players playing team baseball. That said, the main function is developing players, and you never want to have winning superseding that. Sometimes you’ll see  guys that might not be as polished of a player, but he’s a better prospect, so you might have a guy who on paper appears to be a lesser player who gets more playing time over a guy putting up good numbers.

FR: When you compare players with the numbers they have to what you’re hearing from the coaches, how much of a focus do you guys put on the numbers you see compared to the process that’s taking place?

JV: It’s more of a balance, because you’ll have guys that put up good numbers. One of my goals is, you know, you’ll have guys where coaches say ‘this guy may be an a-ball tops guy’, or ‘this guy may be a double-a tops guy’, you never want that to become sort of a self-fufilling prophecy. If the guy is producing, even if the coach doesn’t think he can get out of A-ball, if he produces, give him a chance. There’s guys who play in the big leagues like David Eckstein who came and talked to our minor league players three or four years ago, and he was pretty honest about how every level he played at, his coaches thought that’s where he was going to top out, so you never want to right a players career out before it actually happens. So in that regard, if the player keeps producing, we’ll let him prove that he’s not capable of playing at the higher level. That being said, there may be guys that are putting up poor numbers, if has ability, if he has talent, you may see him getting more chances based on the coaches recommendation.

FR: The fans are pretty familiar with the top guys, it’s changing a bit, but obviously Miller, guys like Cox, now Martinez, but in the lower levels of the system, there’s a very young group of prospects, talk about a few of those guys that the organization and the fans can get excited about?

JV: Well one of the top guys, and I know you guys who do a good job keeping up with your site may know is Oscar Taveras, he’s a guy at Johnson City, he’s 18-years old, had a really nice year. He’s got good power to all fields, even though he’s only 18 he’s a very polished hitter, he runs fairly well, solid defensively, got a nice arms. So he’s one guy, and you know, I hate to rank guys at that stage in their career, but he really stood out in his first year over in the United States. A kid who really stood out at the end of the year is Rainel Rosario at Quad Cities. He was really kind of under the radar, not many of our guys knew much about him because he had an injury earlier in his career, but he really opened some eyes as an offense player in the second half. Michael Swinson’s got a lot of ability, a lot of tools. It hasn’t really translated into statistical success yet, but he’s a guy that our managers and coaches are impressed by his tools. He’s still very raw and young so we think this could be a big year for him to translate those tools into success.

FR: What’s the Player Development department’s role one we get into the end of the Major League season here?

JV: One of our roles is to talk to Mo, talk to the staff in regards to potential promotions. This time of year, once the minor league season is over, we’ll sit down and talk with the Major League staff to get a feel for what they’ve seen from the guys that have come up, and see if there’s something that they see on the fundamental basis that we need to do differently on the Minor League side. If there’s a group of guys and they’re all doing something in a way the Major League guys don’t like, that’s something we need to correct. One of the things we really try to focus on is doing things in the Minor Leagues the same way we do on the Major League side.

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Over Labor Day weekend, one month ago, I made another tip to the Quad Cities to watch River Bandits baseball.  I’d been to the Quad Cities several times this year and still managed to miss Shelby Miller.  Yes, I’m still bitter about that and yes, he’s something of a white whale to me currently. In any event, what follows are my notes on various players from that visit.

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