Archive for November, 2010I took the AFL stats and ran a quick FIP calc for all the pitchers on the Surprise Rafters. The chart uses a league modifier of 3.2 and is not tailored to actual AFL performance. It also treats all walks the same. It’s important to remember that (1) there are serious sample size issues so don’t read much if anything into the stats regarding actual performance and (2) the AFL is considered a hitters league. I’ve also included 2009 stats as a frame of reference and/or trip down memory lane.
When thinking about prospects to highlight and research, I’m always looking for under the radar players that have been in the system for at least 3 years. It always helps if the player is making news lately with winter leagues or player movement. To me at least, it always seems like Adam Reifer is very under hyped. He is ranked highly in the prospect rankings, but not a lot of pundits are talking about him. Now that he is a member of the Cardinals 40-man roster, this ends now. Adam Reifer was drafted in the 11th round of the 2007 MLB draft out of UC Riverside. He had been a relief pitcher his entire college career, but was limited to less than 10 innings his junior year due to injury. The Cardinals took a flyer on him and he signed, but did not play the rest of the 2007 season as he rested and rehabbed his injury. In 2008, he was assigned to rookie short season team Batavia. He lead the Muckdogs to the NY-Penn League Championship, including closing out the Championship game. He earned that right through a great season. His strikeouts per 9 innings was 12.16 and his strikeout to walk was 2.73. So, he was striking out 2.73 times as many players as he was walking. He had 22 saves in the short season. He was absolutely dominating in Batavia and rightfully earned a leap up to Palm Beach for the 2009 season. The rest of Adam’s career after the jump and a GIF of his mechanics.
Let’s continue looking at a few interesting prospects over the winter. Next up is OF Aaron Luna. Luna was drafted by the Cardinals in the 9th round of the 2008 MLB draft out of Rice. He played in the infield for the Rice Owls, but his professional future would lie in the outfield. In his first partial season in professional baseball, he started out in Quad Cities as a 21 year old and basically mashed. He had a wOBA of .429 over 82 at-bats even though his batting average was only .234. That gives any early idea of the kind of power that Aaron Luna could produce. He was promoted to Palm Beach in August and never got adjusted to high A in only 13 games. He struck out 8 times and had an OPS of .383. Aaron probably wants to forget that stint, so we will as well. Luna played in the outfield in every game that season. He went to the Instructional league that offseason to work on playing 2B again. In 2009, he was returned to Quad Cities and he only played 6 games before being moved back to Palm Beach. Back in the place where he had a disappointing end to his first professional season and played much better. He had a wOBA of .393 over 54 games. He continued his high OBP ways, even though he still struck out 22% of his at-bats. A high OBP combined with a ISO slugging of .231 got a promotion to Springfield for Luna in his age 22 season. Luna actually played a majority of his games in Palm Beach at second base, which made us reach quickly to our paper bags as we dreamt of a second baseman with that kind of power and on-base capability. But, when he was moved to Springfield, he was used almost exclusively in the outfield. He ended the season with Springfield and OPS’ed .782 but continued to keep his high OBP at .362 even though is average was below .235. The rest of Luna’s career after the jump. Lynn was drafted in 2008 and moved rapidly through the system making a stop at 5 different levels in 2.5 years. With a low 90s fastball, a low 80s slider and a fringy changeup & curve, Lynn was a very polished college pitcher that didn’t offer much in the way of projection. In 2010, his overall numbers took a tick toward the negative but there are reasons to be encouraged as we look toward 2011. I get e-mails from time to time about various Cardinals related things. Generally, it’s from people I’ve never heard of or met before who have mined my info off of VEB or FR. That material generally goes straight to the trash folder but today’s made me chuckle a bit:
I still think that Old Hoss Radbourn must be a VEBer on twitter but I’m not sure anyone has ever stripped back the mask of internet anonymity for that particular feed. I also have a (somewhat) serious question: Can elite players – aka ones who are actually good at baseball — achieve a ‘grit’ moniker? Tomorrow, I’ll give you a more meat and potatoes look at Lance Lynn. Pitching counting stats: PJ Walters, 19.6 pRAA Hitting counting stats: Allen Craig, 20.0 bRAA; Ruben Gotay, 18.8 bRAA The Cardinals made more yet moves today to adjust their 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft. Added: Tony Cruz, Blake King Removed: Nick Stavinoha, Adam Ottavino, Steve Hill and Daryl Jones. All four are “outrighted” to Memphis and available for the Rule 5 draft. Discuss. Surprise 3, Phoenix 3 (7 innings)
This week, the hitters of the Arizona Fall League are popular topics, so let’s look next at the outfielder the Cardinals sent to Arizona and Adron Chambers. Adron Chambers was drafted in the 38th round of the 2007 MLB draft by the Cardinals out of Pensacola Junior College. He’s a small guy at 5’10” and 180 lbs and bats left handed and can play any position in the outfield. Let’s take a look at Adron’s minor league career with the Cardinals. After being drafted, Chambers was assigned to Johnson City as a 20 year old, the Cardinals rookie level affiliate. He didn’t play particularly well with a wOBA of only.334 in 34 games. He didn’t have a particularly good eye striking out 17.8% of the time and only walking 7.9%. His OBP was 2 points higher than his slugging%, which shows you the type of player he was when he started out. None the less, he was still a fleet of foot player who was capable of playing center field. There is some value in that, so he was moved up to Quad Cities for the next season. A batting practice video and the rest of Chambers’ career is after the jump!
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