Lynn was drafted in 2008 and moved rapidly through the system making a stop at 5 different levels in 2.5 years. With a low 90s fastball, a low 80s slider and a fringy changeup & curve, Lynn was a very polished college pitcher that didn’t offer much in the way of projection. In 2010, his overall numbers took a tick toward the negative but there are reasons to be encouraged as we look toward 2011.
Lance Lynn (along with Brandon Dickson) currently stand as insurance for the likes of Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia and Kyle Lohse. Lynn spent the entirety of 2010 in Memphis as a starter racking up an impressive 160+ innings. As the season progressed, Lynn’s numbers improved especially after emerging from a dismal June.
| 2009 – Springfield | 2010 – Memphis | |
| HR/9 | 0.36 | 1.15 |
| FIP | 3.47 | 4.43 |
| GB% | 46.7 | 42.6 |
I’ve been critical of Lynn’s 2010 campaign and, on balance, I stand by that assessment. Lynn’s 2009 FIP at Springfield was 3.47 and rose to 4.43 in 2010 at Memphis. A significant part of that was an increased HR rate (21 in 164 IP). Lynn’s HR rate in 2009 is certainly a partial product of luck based on his batted ball profile.
The other area for concern would be the decrease in groundball percentage from 2009 to 2010. Lynn is at his best when he’s able to pitch to the lower half of the zone with his fastball and mix in his breaking stuff off the plate low and away. The decreased groundball percentage, while small, is problematic for a pitcher who lacks a true out pitch.
| 2009 – Springfield | 2010 – Memphis | |
| K/9 | 7.0 | 7.8 |
| K% | 18.4 | 19.9 |
| BB/9 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| BB% | 10.3 | 9.9 |
| K:BB | 1.8 | 2.0 |
The positive notes from 2010 are simple but important. Lynn struck out a higher percentage of batters and walked a lower percentage relative to 2009. Strikeout-to-walk ratio is a key indicator of pitcher performance and this improvement is something Lynn should look to build on.
It’s simple to say that a successful 2011 campaign would be one where Lynn maintains all of his successes and shrinks his weaknesses. That’s unrealistic though. The homerun rate of 2010 is closer to what we should expect than 2009. The improved K:BB rate is important but I’ll be watching the GB% in 2011. A pitcher with middling stuff, Lynn could become more than a back-of-the-rotation pitcher by making strides in that area. The Cardinals have planned for that development and work to take place in Memphis but as we’ve seen in the past, injuries can derail the best laid plans.
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Throw Augenstein into the mix of potential insurance starters (probably ahead of Dickson). I’m expecting big things from him this year and I would not be surprised to see him jump past Lynn on the depth chart. I was glad to see the Cards claim him.
you are excpecting big things of him, why exactly ? I predict your expectations will not be meet.
I’m not expecting him to climb to ace status or even 2-3 starter quality, but I feel he has as good a chance as Lynn to become a solid 4 or 5. He’s a ground ball pitcher who has struggled recently due to a lack of sink on his sinker. I think Duncan can help solve that problem and I think he can succeed in the Cards system. Although he doesn’t have great upside, he is now probably one of the best pitchers the Cards have in the upper minors.
To me the story of Lynn’s season is the mid season turnaround. I have no idea if there was an identifiable change in his approach but, if not, there’s not much reason to even be interested in his major league prospects. Taken as a whole his 2010 stats are uninspiring. I suspect, though, that there was something that he either changed or rediscovered because he was actually very good in the second half. Good enough to inspire some optimism that he could make it in the majors. Is there anything more in the numbers that might indicate what that was?
Though his season stats were un-exceptional, his late-season improvement clearly was. Therein lies our hope.