Let’s continue looking at a few interesting prospects over the winter. Next up is OF Aaron Luna. Luna was drafted by the Cardinals in the 9th round of the 2008 MLB draft out of Rice. He played in the infield for the Rice Owls, but his professional future would lie in the outfield.
In his first partial season in professional baseball, he started out in Quad Cities as a 21 year old and basically mashed. He had a wOBA of .429 over 82 at-bats even though his batting average was only .234. That gives any early idea of the kind of power that Aaron Luna could produce. He was promoted to Palm Beach in August and never got adjusted to high A in only 13 games. He struck out 8 times and had an OPS of .383. Aaron probably wants to forget that stint, so we will as well. Luna played in the outfield in every game that season. He went to the Instructional league that offseason to work on playing 2B again.
In 2009, he was returned to Quad Cities and he only played 6 games before being moved back to Palm Beach. Back in the place where he had a disappointing end to his first professional season and played much better. He had a wOBA of .393 over 54 games. He continued his high OBP ways, even though he still struck out 22% of his at-bats. A high OBP combined with a ISO slugging of .231 got a promotion to Springfield for Luna in his age 22 season. Luna actually played a majority of his games in Palm Beach at second base, which made us reach quickly to our paper bags as we dreamt of a second baseman with that kind of power and on-base capability. But, when he was moved to Springfield, he was used almost exclusively in the outfield. He ended the season with Springfield and OPS’ed .782 but continued to keep his high OBP at .362 even though is average was below .235.
The rest of Luna’s career after the jump.
Luna’s strong 2009 lead him to start out the season where he ended the previous season, in Springfield and Luna made a marketed improvement in his stats in every category. He had a wOBA of .418 in 103 games in Springfield. (418!) He was absolutely throttling the ball with 15 HRs and an ISO slugging of .201. But, his on-base abilities did not decline either as he walked 15.4% of his plate appearances. His strikeouts continued at the same level with 22.9%. He is still striking out more than he is walking, but with an OPS of .891, some things can be forgiven. This season was elevated by a shocking 18% line drive rate. But with a .302 BABIP, one could even say he got unlucky based on how many line drives he hit in 2010. The unfortunate part of his time in Springfield in 2010 is that he only got 6 games at 2B. So, after a 1 year experiment with a lot of games at 2B, Luna was moved back to outfield and as it seems permanently. Luna was promoted to Memphis for most of July and never really caught on and was moved back to Springfield. However, Luna’s strong LD% followed him to Memphis (16.1%) , but his BABIP did not (.233). In a small sample size of 52 plate appearances in Memphis, it looks like Luna got fairly unlucky in the small time in AAA.
Aaron Luna is so much more valuable as a second baseman, but based on his one year return to the infield, the Cardinals do not think he will be able to stick there and his future is in the outfield. However, if he continues to hit like he did in Springfield in 2010, he will still have some value in the outfield. That being said, considering he probably is limited to left field in the outfield and the Cardinals have Matt Holliday locking that position down for the next several years, he is going to be blocked for the near future. If he switched back to second, is he as bad defensively as Skip Schumaker? There is no way to tell, but I would consider them to be in a similar range on the defensive scale at second. Unless Luna can suddenly convince the Cardinals brass that he can play second base at a major league level, his future probably exists as a Jack Cust-like three true outcomes DH for an American League team.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, Statcorner, Fangraphs.
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Holiday offered to move to RF last year. The Cardinals should take him up on that offer (starting in ST) thereby vacating the position where NL teams traditionally dump bats that can’t field.
I wonder if the skepticism about him at 2B is a matter of “once bitten, twice shy” in the aftermath of the failed Skippy experiment (and let’s face it, by now it is clear that that experiment has failed). If so, it should be reconsidered. Trying to hone the skills of a guy who has played 2B recently, and been found wanting, is a different proposition than trying to recreate those skills in someone who’s been an outfielder for ages. Hard work with a fielding coach should make some progress in Luna that was and is beyond the guy he might replace.
The Cardinals’ farm system strikes me as being generally in pretty good working order these days, but I do wonder if something is lacking involving fielding. The system is not particularly awash in ponderous Adam Dunn types whose bodies force them to less taxing defensive positions as they age/mature, yet the number of guys who do have to make such a shift, thereby diluting their prospecthood, is rather high. Is an opportunity being missed?
agree, very good question
seems all we draft are washouts in the infield
or pegged to not hit at all (ss from u miami)
if tlr can do it, can’t luna?
A system with Jose Oquendo in it should be able to teach infield defense to anyone who has the requisite physical skills. Looks like Luna doesn’t. A prospect like Luna is the best example of a flawed drafting philosophy which, thankfully, it looks like we are in the process of changing. Luna is the kind of player I really want to like but it seems like he’s a guy who was close to a finished product when he was drafted. He had already learned the plate discipline that a good system should be able to teach to more gifted prospects but his physical makeup probably won’t translate into a major league career. He’s done well for a 9th round choice and he truly is a good professional player but I don’t think we’ll see him in the Cardinal outfield.
I agree about the Secret Weapon, but we have no idea how much time he gets to spend with guys in the minors. I would guess that the answer is “not much,” and I don’t know who his opposite number down on the farm is, or how good he is at his job.
Given that Luna was a 9th-round choice, I don’t see him as an “example of a flawed drafting philosophy” at all. By the time you get that deep into a draft, ANY draftee is going to have things wrong with him; if he didn’t, he’d have been drafted higher, much higher. Rather, he’s progressing very much as a 9th-round choice should, rather better than one really has any right to expect of the 275th pick overall. It’s just likely not to be enough for more than a cup of coffee — but one can hope.
agreed. finding a 9th rounder who has just one ML-quality skill is a success. It was a good calculated risk that Luna, taken in the 9th round, might have the skills to make an infield transition, making him much more valuable. that it looks like it won’t work out is not indicative of a flawed drafting philosophy.
You’re both right. I was swinging too wide a loop there. He’s climbed higher than most 9th round picks and has a shot at the majors. That makes him a decent 9th rounder. I do think though that he’s a good example of the kind of almost “finished product” that the Cardinals have chosen both early and late in the drafts of recent years that has left them short of high ceiling prospects.
Luna played 2B as a sophomore. By his junior season, Luna moved to OF. He was a failed 2Bman in college. But they thought that of Chase Utley and he has played 2B in the majors.
Luna needs a couple of years at Memphis to get ready for the majors. Not bad for a 9th rounder.
I still think it makes more sense to keep him at second base, even if he’s unbelievably brutal with the glove. His bat just doesn’t impress me enough to project as a Major League left fielder or DH. I wouldn’t have made the switch until he aged out. But that’s just me.
On what basis have we condemned him to LF? I’ve heard he has a good arm and plays a decent RF.
The Cards drafted Luna as an OF. He was only tried at 2B at his request (according to Luhnow).
I like Luna and think he has a chance but no analysis of Luna is complete without noting that a large portion of his OBP is based on being hit by pitches. There has to be questions whether he can continue those HBP rates at the ML level. He also has not been able to sustain a decent LD rate (which contributes to his low BABIP). If he improves that, his prospect status will go up tremendously.
Assuming Descalso moves up, who else do we have to play 2B at Memphis? Donovan Solano?
Cox?
We can all hope that the organization has enough forsight to put Cox at 2nd.
I have my doubts though!!!
I, too, would like to see Cox given a chance at 2b. I mean, if he has to be moved to third, then he has to be moved to third but he’s played mostly 2b in college so you might as well give him a shot to add some positional value at an organizational need before giving up on it.
I’m really not sure Luna is half the hitter Jack Cust is/was. Cust’s minor league numbers, and his first couple of seasons of MLB, were far more impressive than Luna’s.
I like Luna and hope he does well, I think he could be a useful bench piece and the fact he’s right-handed and hits for power gives him an advantage over most of the other AAAA OF guys, who are mostly left-handed slap hitters. However, I would sound one note of caution – his gaudy wOBAs over the years have been partially aided by a REALLY ridiculous rate of HBP; the guy is a walking target, it would seem. Whether that’s because pitchers are overwhelmingly busting him inside because of his power extension over the plate, or because he leans into a lot of inside pitchers, you can bet that MLB-quality pitchers are less likely to be feeding fastballs into his left elbow, and will better be able to attack him with stuff over the plate and away.
Take away his crazily high HBP numbers, and his walkrate and low BA makes it look like he’s a guy who, despite probably having 15-20HR power, will struggle to get on base. He’s really not a 3TO guy like Cust, because he’s not going to walk much as a major league player. Ergo, he’s probably not going to be very valuable unless he can improve his fielding.