Comments on: To Better Know A Prospect: Aaron Luna

By: Felonius_Monk

Felonius_Monk — Thu, 02 Dec 2010 13:07:01 +0000

I’m really not sure Luna is half the hitter Jack Cust is/was. Cust’s minor league numbers, and his first couple of seasons of MLB, were far more impressive than Luna’s.

I like Luna and hope he does well, I think he could be a useful bench piece and the fact he’s right-handed and hits for power gives him an advantage over most of the other AAAA OF guys, who are mostly left-handed slap hitters. However, I would sound one note of caution – his gaudy wOBAs over the years have been partially aided by a REALLY ridiculous rate of HBP; the guy is a walking target, it would seem. Whether that’s because pitchers are overwhelmingly busting him inside because of his power extension over the plate, or because he leans into a lot of inside pitchers, you can bet that MLB-quality pitchers are less likely to be feeding fastballs into his left elbow, and will better be able to attack him with stuff over the plate and away.

Take away his crazily high HBP numbers, and his walkrate and low BA makes it look like he’s a guy who, despite probably having 15-20HR power, will struggle to get on base. He’s really not a 3TO guy like Cust, because he’s not going to walk much as a major league player. Ergo, he’s probably not going to be very valuable unless he can improve his fielding.

By: easy

easy — Fri, 26 Nov 2010 23:38:40 +0000

You’re both right. I was swinging too wide a loop there. He’s climbed higher than most 9th round picks and has a shot at the majors. That makes him a decent 9th rounder. I do think though that he’s a good example of the kind of almost “finished product” that the Cardinals have chosen both early and late in the drafts of recent years that has left them short of high ceiling prospects.

By: Purple_Haze

Purple_Haze — Fri, 26 Nov 2010 16:37:29 +0000

I, too, would like to see Cox given a chance at 2b. I mean, if he has to be moved to third, then he has to be moved to third but he’s played mostly 2b in college so you might as well give him a shot to add some positional value at an organizational need before giving up on it.

By: bc

bc — Fri, 26 Nov 2010 15:34:41 +0000

agreed. finding a 9th rounder who has just one ML-quality skill is a success. It was a good calculated risk that Luna, taken in the 9th round, might have the skills to make an infield transition, making him much more valuable. that it looks like it won’t work out is not indicative of a flawed drafting philosophy.

By: ron ferch

ron ferch — Fri, 26 Nov 2010 15:24:15 +0000

We can all hope that the organization has enough forsight to put Cox at 2nd.

I have my doubts though!!!

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Fri, 26 Nov 2010 04:44:53 +0000

Cox?

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Fri, 26 Nov 2010 04:44:24 +0000

I agree about the Secret Weapon, but we have no idea how much time he gets to spend with guys in the minors. I would guess that the answer is “not much,” and I don’t know who his opposite number down on the farm is, or how good he is at his job.

Given that Luna was a 9th-round choice, I don’t see him as an “example of a flawed drafting philosophy” at all. By the time you get that deep into a draft, ANY draftee is going to have things wrong with him; if he didn’t, he’d have been drafted higher, much higher. Rather, he’s progressing very much as a 9th-round choice should, rather better than one really has any right to expect of the 275th pick overall. It’s just likely not to be enough for more than a cup of coffee — but one can hope.

By: shaneo69

shaneo69 — Fri, 26 Nov 2010 03:34:31 +0000

Assuming Descalso moves up, who else do we have to play 2B at Memphis? Donovan Solano?

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Thu, 25 Nov 2010 19:22:45 +0000

I like Luna and think he has a chance but no analysis of Luna is complete without noting that a large portion of his OBP is based on being hit by pitches. There has to be questions whether he can continue those HBP rates at the ML level. He also has not been able to sustain a decent LD rate (which contributes to his low BABIP). If he improves that, his prospect status will go up tremendously.

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Thu, 25 Nov 2010 19:19:41 +0000

On what basis have we condemned him to LF? I’ve heard he has a good arm and plays a decent RF.

The Cards drafted Luna as an OF. He was only tried at 2B at his request (according to Luhnow).