Archive for December, 2010

Another thought experiment for the end of the year 2010, this one a bit darker and one I hope never comes to fruition.  If the Cardinals do not re-sign Albert Pujols at 1B, will they be able to replace him internally from the farm system?  (Odds are that the Cardinals WILL re-sign Albert, but it does not hurt to take a look at our 1B depth just in case.)

The First basemen in the Cardinals system have been blocked by Pujols ever since he moved from 3B to LF to 1B and stayed there.  Pujols has been a full-time first baseman since 2004 and any prospect that was reaching the minor leagues’ ceiling as first base needed to be moved for a player at another position.  (See Wallace, Brett who will be a permanent 1B in the majors.)  That being said, what do the Cardinals have left in the minors at first base?  The great thing about first base is that it can be played by any slugging player that does not quite have a position and the Cardinals have a few of those as well.

Obviously, no one in the universe is going to replace Pujols’ production, so we can only look at the internal candidates to replace him at 1B and how well they will do.

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Creating and looking at our Future Redbirds top prospect rankings for this season (which you will get to see very soon), I was struck by something.  It is really hard to differentiate between our prospects between 4 and beyond our 20 to say 30.  All of them having something good going for them, but all of them have flaws right now.  And that is not a bad thing for the Cardinals going forward.  With a level playing field of approximately 25 prospects, they will not be hurt if 1 or 2 drops off the map, but will be significantly strengthened if 1 or 2 takes a huge step forward.  I titled this post “A Grab Bag” and that is exactly what this group of prospects is.

You could make an argument that Nick Longmire deserves to be ranked above Lance Lynn and you could make an argument for the opposite.  Nick Longmire had a short-season breakout after being drafted and Lance Lynn has been in the system for a few years with declining results.  One is closer to the majors and the other has a higher upside.

A lot of potentially equal prospects makes our jobs harder when making top prospect lists, but the Cardinals and their fans should be happy that they have a lot of insurance against a prospect dropping off because they have many to take his place.  The Cardinals are in a great position to add high upside players this year through the draft and international free agency because they have built a solid base of prospects that will keep the system rich even if some of the prospects flame out.

As I was over the top prospects in the system last night, I was struck by something: the real lack of a power prospect.

Just stop and think about that for a second. Is there anyone in the system that you’d project with 30 HR power? Not me. Colby Rasmus used to fill that void. Brett Wallace filled it for some after Colby. Now 30 HRs is a pretty high threshold.  There were only 18 major leaguers to hit 30 HRs last year.

So how about 25 HRs?  Or 20? Once you get down to 20 I’d be inclined to start talking about a guy like Steve Hill or maybe Tommy Pham.  I wouldn’t include Matt Carpenter there or any of the 4th outfielder types we have (Adron Chambers, Tyler Henley).  Even the first base “prospects” like Mark Hamilton don’t strike me as someone I’d want to label with that power.  Matt Adams hit 22 bombs in Modern Woodman Park last year; is our best power prospect in low-A?  Is Zack Cox someone you want to include in this picture?

The Cardinals have a lot of intriguing pitchers and there are power arms littered throughout the system both as starters and relievers. The majority of the top prospects in the system are pitchers right now. Which all leads back to my original question – who is the Cardinals best power prospect and how many HRs would you project them to hit, on average, in the majors?

I have a feeling this will become a yearly missive.  I’ll keep this short as I attempt to round up all the prospect list links.

ZiPS projects Bryan Anderson as a .261/.319/.387 hitter in the majors for 2011. No great shakes by most interpretations. That translates to something around a .310 wOBA or about 8 runs worse than average over 600 PAs. That’s not actually terrible for a catcher.

Gerald Laird projects as a .240/.302/.342 hitter in 2011 or roughly a .285 wOBA.

Arguments for Gerald Laird to be the 2011 backup catcher have to include a rational discussion as to how he is 15 runs better (over a full season; prorate accordingly) defensively relative to Bryan Anderson.  That is to say you’d have to believe Gerald Laird is a little better than average and Bryan Anderson is well below average behind the plate.  It’s the minimum hurdle that has to be overcome and only serves as a starting point for potential discussions regarding platooning, age, injury risk, etc.

Succinctly, this looks like a bad decision to me. It’s more runs lost at the margins of the team.  Eventually, those add up.

ZiPS Projection

I’ll be doing some housekeeping on the site today. Some obvious (see the post below – Daryl Jones at #3, good heavens) and some behind the scenes.  I’m also trying to get a handle on some more “Meet in the Middle” posts that will be forthcoming. Bear with me.

That said, I wanted to throw something a touch unconventional at you. I know the New Year is coming and for a lot of people that means a new year’s resolution. Personally, I haven’t made one in some time. If there’s something about my life that needs changing, tying it to the new year doesn’t help me. The first hiccup I hit means I’ll wait out the rest of the year to try again.

That’s just me though and I’m weird. For a lot of people this is a time to start fresh and try to correct/change/do something they’ve never done before or that they’ve never been able to maintain. Often, that goal is tied to weight loss.

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This post compiles the top 20 from last year’s rankings. We’ll begin ranking 2011′s top 20 Cardinal Prospects next week.

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Future Redbirds wishes you and your family a wonderful Christmas. Thanks for stopping by this year and hopefully we can continue to fulfill your Cardinals prospect news and analysis.

Merry Christmas!

With several months still until the pitchers and catchers report, it’s probably a good time to see how the Cardinals got to where they are now in their farm system.  And since their International operations have not yet born fruit for the big club, let’s take a look back at the MLB drafts.  Obviously, the MLB draft is not as crucial for development of a team as the NFL draft is for NFL teams, but it is still informative to see what decisions the Cardinals made in the draft process.  All stats are courtesy of Baseball Cube. Players with an ** before their name did not sign with the Cardinals after this draft.

This is the final installment, since AZ is covering the second guessing in the 2005 and previous drafts and I saved this for the holiday season because everyone is in a better mood.  Now, that you are all in a good mood, on to the bad news.  This 2004 draft was a pox on the concept of “drafting” and “developing”.  The Cardinals did not go cheap in this draft, but instead went reasonably large and failed.  The big problem is finding the highest profile or best draft pick in this draft by the Cardinals.  It is a toss-up between Jarrett Hoffpauir, Mike Parisi or Mark Worrell.  Yay, terrible choices! Without further adieu, your 2004 Cardinals draft.

Rnd      Ovl       Player Name    Pos      Age      HL       Drafted From   Bonus
1          19        Chris Lambert  P          21        MLB    Boston College $1,525,000

Chris Lambert did so well in the minors he was infamously traded for Mike Maroth.  He was moved to relief in Memphis in 2007 without much improvement in his numbers.  He was drafted by the Cardinals after a strong performance in the Cape Cod League in 2003.  If they wanted a college arm, they could have signed Huston Street as a cheaper option ($800k bonus) or if they wanted to go high upside starter like they thought they were getting with Lambert, they need to go to the high school ranks and select Phil Hughes ($1.4 mil bonus) or Yovanni Gallardo ($725k bonus) who was even cheaper.  If they wanted to go another route, HS SS Reid Brignac was available.  Lambert actually tasted the big leagues with Detroit and Baltimore, but in his MLB appearances he allowed almost 14 hits per 9 innings and struck out only 7 per 9.  Lambert is the not too rare combination of a failed drafting AND development for the Cardinals.  Plus, Lambert will continue to haunt DanUp’s nightmares.

The rest of the 2004 draft after the jump!

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With several months still until the pitchers and catchers report, it’s probably a good time to see how the Cardinals got to where they are now in their farm system.  And since their International operations have not yet born fruit for the big club, let’s take a look back at the MLB drafts.  Obviously, the MLB draft is not as crucial for development of a team as the NFL draft is for NFL teams, but it is still informative to see what decisions the Cardinals made in the draft process.  All stats are courtesy of Baseball Cube. Players with an ** before their name did not sign with the Cardinals after this draft.

After the disasters that were the 2001 and 2002 drafts, the Cardinals made some improvements in the 2003 draft, getting some good talent and it would have been a lot better if they were able to sign two high school arms they drafted later in the draft.  Let’s take a look.

Rnd      Ovl       Player Name    Pos      Age      HL       Drafted From   Bonus
1          28        Daric Barton     C         17        MLB    Marina (CA)    $975,000

The Cardinals picked up the slugging high school catcher in the first round.  However, after 2 seasons at catcher with the Cardinals, he was moved to Oakland in the Mark Mulder deal and the A’s used him at first after that.  Barton is a three true outcomes player, he either walks, strikes out or hits a home run.  He fit in well with the Jack Cust-led A’s.  However, looking back at older drafts made me appreciate this pick even more.  The Cardinals were able to grab a high school player who played well in his first 2 seasons in the minors with the Cardinals and developed into a MLB-caliber player.  However, that being said, the pick still opens itself up to criticism as Adam Jones and Carlos Quentin were picked after Barton.

The rest of the 2003 draft by the Cardinals after the jump!

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And now we arrive at the 2007 draft where the pick in question centers around the Cardinals first choice overall: Pete Kozma. At the time of the draft, Kozma was billed as a jack of all trades and master of none.  16 picks later, the Reds selected Todd Frazier with the 34th overall pick in the first supplemental round.  At least this conversation won’t be about Rick Porcello, right?

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