The next two posts are inspired by this Lboros comment on the lengthy VEB post I penned yesterday:
completely agree, AZ. with Westbrook, Berkman, and Theriot, they’re adding $20 million in payroll without solving the team’s most pressing problem
-- the infield. it’s still full of question marks and stands a good chance of requiring midseason intervention for the third year in a row
It’s not a secret that the middle infield was a huge problem for the Cardinals last year. Their two primary middle infielders — Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan — posted wOBAs that valued their offense at 7.5 and 23.8 runs below average respectively. With the bat, these two cost the Cardinals 3 wins on paper. That’s a tough pill to swallow.
The issue, as Lboros saliently pointed out, is that they Cardinals continue to struggle with how to solve this problem. After Edgar Renteria’s departure in 2004, the team signed David Eckstein to shortstop on a three year deal. Following Eckstein’s contract, Cesar Izturis was given a season at shortstop with disastrous results. Brendan Ryan has been the primary if not everyday shortstop for two years running. The Cardinals have never gotten an average OPS (OPS+ = 100) from the position since Renteria’s departure.
Second base has been just as much of a conundrum. Schumaker managed to crack the average OPS barrier in 2009 (102 OPS+) but played atrocious defense his first year at the position and saw his offense plummet in 2010. The Cardinals have cycled unceremoniously through stop gap second basemen since the good years of Fernando Vina (which, to be fair, were also followed by the bad years of Fernando Vina): Bo Hart, Tony Womack, Mark Grudzielanek, Aaron Miles and Adam Kennedy. Skip Schumaker was converted to second base to try and cover for the farm systems continued inability to produce a middle infielder.
So who have the Cardinals drafted in the middle infield in recent years. We’ll take a look after the jump at all the middle infielders the team has drafted in the Luhnow era (2005 – present).
| Year | Round | Player | Position |
| 2005 | 1 | Tyler Greene | SS |
| 2006 | 8 | Allen Craig | SS |
| 2007 | 1 | Pete Kozma | SS |
| 2007 | 3 | Daniel Descalso | 3B |
| 2007 | 6 | Oliver Marmol | SS |
| 2008 | 3 | Niko Vasquez | SS |
| 2008 | 10 | Alex Castellanos | 2B |
| 2009 | 5 | Ryan Jackson | SS |
| 2009 | 8 | Jason Stidham | SS |
| 2010 | 1 | Zach Cox | 3B |
| 2010 | 3 | Sam Tuivailala | SS |
| 2010 | 7 | Greg Garcia | SS |
The Cardinals obviously hoped from more for Tyler Greene. Drafted in the first round, Greene has begun to put himself in the backup middle infielder conversation after multiple stops at Memphis. He continues to struggle to make contact and his defense can be erratic though he is generally considered a plus defender.
The dearth of infield prospects from 2005 & 2006 makes 2007 look like there was a concerted effort to correct. Selecting three middle infielders, the Cardinals looked to address an obvious deficit within the system. To date, those picks look marginal at best with Descalso having the potential to be a fringe everyday starter though more likely a bench player.
The Cardinals select a pair of players that don’t project to the middle infield in the 2008 draft. In 2009, they grabbed a slick fielder with a weak bat and another player who was questionable to stick at his position. While I’ve been impressed with Jackson in the past, the bat is truly anemic.
If anything, 2010 reminds me of the 2007 draft. The Cardinals go back to the high school corps to find a raw athlete that they can mold into an everyday player at short. Tuivailala is nothing if not raw and some have suggested that he’ll have to move to third but the Cardinals will have the chance to form him within their player development system.
The real problem that I see with the table above is the huge misses in 2005 and 2007 with Tyler Greene and Pete Kozma. I won’t try to dissect whether those misses lie at the feet of the drafters or the minor league coaches but two first round picks that don’t look like they’ll even make the majors is problematic for an organization that wants to build from within. Tomorrow we’ll take a look at some of the options the Cardinals passed on that, in hindsight, may be questionable.
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Both Greene and Kozma (1st round draft picks) failing as prospects at this point in their careers has really hurt the Cards. I have no faith in T. Greene at this point. You could accept his lack of contact at the plate if he played stellar defense but his offensive woes seem to follow him into the field. Kozma, who can say. The Cardinals need an explosion from him in Memphis this season just to claw his way back into the conversation of Cardinals SS.
I’ll be very interested to see your followup, AZ, because I’ve been doing some looking at the same question myself, and have mainly reached the conclusion that you can’t draft what ain’t there. The only player drafted since 2005 as a middle infielder and available to the Cardinals to draft (i.e., neglecting Justin Upton and Troy Tulowitzki, who went early in 2005, before the Cardinals’ first choice) to have reached a .750 OPS in as many as 50 MLB at-bats so far is Yunel Escobar, drafted in 2005, 45 picks after T-Greene. Of course, you’re going to be looking at minor-league prospects too (right?), and I look forward to seeing what you find, but the major-league record isn’t just replete with success stories that we missed out on, as far as I can tell.
One question: will you be looking at Latin American non-drafted free agents? The obvious success story there is Starlin Castro, and there may be others. If that’s where there’s talent to be mined, it’s obviously not bad drafting that has been the problem, but rather inattention to the Latin marketplace, which, I would argue, seems to have been corrected, on the basis of Matias/Martinez, the Mateo attempt, etc.
If I had a good way to get at Latin prospects in a comprehensive manner I would but I’m not aware of any publicly available list that would suit my needs.
Looking at Craig, I have to ask why wasn’t he moved to 2nd base? His power numbers would have been great for the position. However his defense might have been a bit below avg much like Dan Uggla.
As far as Kozma. The guy is only 22 at this point and its very possible that at 25 he becomes a productive member in STL.
Interesting question, and I presume a Craig move to 2B was actually considered. He doesn’t seem to have a second baseman’s “body type,” to the extent there is one. I note that only one of the top 20 second basemen this year as measured by VORP (Neil Walker) was as tall as Craig’s 6’2″, and most are 6 feet even, or shorter.
This same question came up earlier with Matt Carpenter, who’s also tall by 2B standards. Is there something about playing the position that predisposes those of “cobby” body type to success there? My own (woefully unsuccessful) attempts to play baseball when I was younger never took me to 2B, being that I’m a lefty, so I wouldn’t know from experience, but given the size of the average major leaguer these days, the fact that so many top second basemen are short and squat does make one wonder.
Hey, did you guys ban me? I tried to navigate to futureredbirds.net on my PC and instead got a message stating that I was banned.
I got the same message about 10 minutes ago, but now everything is back to normal. Must have just been some technical difficulties or something…Good write-up on our impotent middle infield
Yeah, I’m back in now. Then again, maybe you and I are on the super secret watch list. :)
I am still not sold that Kozma is a bust. He has progressed, albeit slowly, as an offensive player. His defense seems to be progressing as well (RF is improving, FP is relatively flat). I still think he can be a solid offensive SS (270, 15, 65) with plus defense.
He repeated Springfield and had a bad year of it the 2nd go around; however, I agree with your point that it’s not over for Kozma. He’s still only 22 (will be 23 in April of 2011). We were sold on this pick as a slick fielder who may develop into a line drive hitter with gap power. Where is the beef (slick fielding)? Very interested to see what happens with Kozma next year at Memphis.
A “contact hitter” had durn well better _make_ contact if he’s going to make it to the Show. Koz still strikes out in a larger fraction of his plate appearances than the typical non-pitcher in the majors, something approaching 20% — and that’s in the minors. If you’re going to do that in the majors, you’d better have more than “gap power” to show for it, something like Alex Gonzalez or Juan Uribe, to name two 2010 MLB shortstops, had this year. If you don’t, your ceiling winds up looking more like Josh Wilson or Ronny Cedeno than like those two — and if that’s what Koz turns out to be, then yeah, he’s a bust.
I don’t ever recall Kozma being called a “slick infielder” at the time of his draft. It was that while he didn’t excel in any particular area/tool, he was average or above-average in them and was projected to stick at SS. That’s why he was regarded as a safe pick–he was viewed as a guy who had the skill to develop into a major leaguer at his position, but he didn’t have the potential to be a star player.
Under-the-radar middle infielder Donovan Solano is only 22 (until Dec. 17).
Signed as a on-drafted free agent in 2005 at age 17, he keeps popping up.
Projects as a backup mid-IF, but could surprise.
based on talent, or just who found him, but luhnow has mentioned his upside before as someone to keep an eye on
There were early comparisons to Renteria for Solano but I don’t see anything in his numbers that indicate he could develop that kind of offensive punch.
He can’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag, unfortunately.
Could we be percieving our SS as busts thus far because of the dire need for a quality SS in the majors? Seeing how thin the 2005 SS pool has been, it’s difficult for me to write off a 25 yr old SS/major league bench player as a bust, nor a 22 yr old ticketed for AAA next year even though neither are lighting up the baseball world. Yes they all have their serious blemishes, but shouldn’t we allow them more than three to five years of development before we give up on them or consider them fringe prospects. It seems very rare for a SS to excel to the majors within three years of being drafted and play a quality game. Also, is it a coinicidence that the FA pools of SS is thin every year? Or could it be a real lack of quality SS in baseball currently? Either way, I’d like to give the players at one of the most difficult positions in the game more time to develop.
Bust is as bust does. T-Greene and Koz both qualify for the title on the basis of what they have done, or not done. However, your point about the thin pickings is fair enough, and it isn’t just shortstops. The 2007 draft was particularly top-heavy; the only position player drafted after Koz who has made any impact to speak of so far is Mike Stanton, who’d be kinda blocked at 1B if we’d drafted him instead. This despite the fact that there were several guys drafted before Koz who look like emerging stars (Heyward, Moustakas, Vitters, Wieters — not the superstar some pegged him to be, but still a durn good player). It is one thing to say that Koz has been a bust. It is another thing to say drafting him was a mistake. In the absence of superior alternatives, he may not have been a mistake, just another mediocrity in a generally mediocre field.
Taking T-Greene when Jed Lowrie, Chase Headley, Yunel Escobar (despite his putrid 2010, he’s had a decent ML career so far) were available — well, that one is a little harder to justify. AZ, I’m really looking forward to your second page.
Andrew Miller—any interest?
What difference does it make as long as LArussa is here?
+10000 to you alex.. I feel that exact same way. Koz and Greene have been very frustrating but they’re still relatively young guys with the potential to turn things around.
As I was reading the chain I was really trying to wrap my brain around who are the really good SS’s in the game today and could only come up with a handful of guys (Tulo, Jeter, Rollins, etc.). I mean even Rollins has had trouble offensively, A. Ramirez for the White Sox is unproven at best, Castro still has as long way to go, I’m sure I’m forgetting some but the list goes on. There just really aren’t that many good quality SS’s in the game today, so it’s not a huge surprise to me that the Cardinals are struggling to find one. Think about it, if a guy like Edgar Renteria came around all the time, would we be sitting here wondering why we let him walk to thinking “Man, I wish we still had Renteria.”? That’s no excuse for the poor results from our farm system, but honestly there just aren’t too many young SS who are lighting the world on fire, it’s a real hit-or-miss position and right now it looks like we’ve missed but there is still alot of time for that to change..
This is strange because of the wealth of top SS in the 90s (Jeter, ARod, Tejada, Nomar, Edgar, Furcal)