A Cardinals Proof
Posted on December 15th, 2010 by Jeff in Blake Hawksworth, Eduardo Sanchez, Fernando Salas, tags: Maikel CletoOk, so this is slightly out of the range of FR, but it involves some of our once and future “Future Redbirds”, so I thought it would be an appropriate venue. And of course, you know you would like a break from the draft reviews.
Either way, today I will endeavor to prove that the Cardinals have improved their organization through the two trades they made this offseason.
Cardinals trade RHP Blake Hawksworth to LA for SS Ryan Theriot.
Cardinals trade SS Brendan Ryan to SEA for RHP Maikel Cleto.
I’m going to start out with an assumption, but based on how the Cardinals have gone about their business, this is obviously their decision.
1. Ryan Theriot > Brendan Ryan
Whether you agree with this or not (or whether I agree with this or not) is not the point. The Cardinals believe this to be true, so we will use it as our assumption.
Some corollaries:
a. Fernando Salas > Blake Hawksworth
Over both of their short times in the majors, Salas has more strikeouts per nine innings and a better strikeout to walk ratio. The same can be said for both players minor league careers as well. And Salas is not even known to have overpowering stuff.
b. Eduardo Sanchez > Blake Hawksworth
The Cardinals have another up and coming right-handed bullpen arm in Eduardo Sanchez. Over his minor league career, Sanchez has struck out almost 10 batters per 9 innings. Although both Hawksworth and Sanchez have similar K/BB ratio, Sanchez’s higher strikeout rate seals the deal.
Obviously, strikeouts and walks do not show all that a pitcher can do, but it gives a quick look at a players control and ability to miss bats, both of which are crucial out of the bullpen on a major league ballclub. Additionally, Hawksworth’s subtraction can be seen as an addition by subtraction because it makes room for both Salas and Sanchez in the major league bullpen in 2011.
2. Maikel Cleto > Blake Hawksworth
We have already made the points why the moves are for the best for the major league team, but now we can dig further and see why the moves have made the farm system stronger as well. For evidence on this, we do not have to dig into the stats, just a quick tweet from Baseball Expert Joe Sheehan:
Cards got more for Ryan than they gave up for Theriot.
So, if we use that evidence from Mr. Sheehan, Cleto is a better prospect and better pitcher than Hawksworth.
QED
So, with all the evidence presented, I have now proved the Cardinals have made their franchise better with these two trades. Obviously, I take the largest point of contention and put it as the assumption, but since this is Future Redbirds, we will leave those types of arguments to Viva El Birdos and other outlets that cover the major league club. The Cardinals added Cleto into a position of strength, right handed relief, but they have also added to a position of weakness in the system: power arms.
So, have at me in the comments and math people can let me know how badly I butchered proofing.
Entries (RSS)
Obvious that you did not do well at math proofs. too many holes and assumptions (that I agree with and that I dont agree with) to even begin.
All you can really say with certainty is that the Cards preferred Theroit to Hawksworth and Cleto to Ryan. Anything else is conjecture as to what the Cards think. If you want to know what I think
cont…..If you want to know what I think, I think I saw Mo on the floor looking for marbles.
So Mo lost his marbles because he traded utility/average at best shortstop?
From everything I’ve read, Cleato has one hell of an arm, it’s just a matter of him getting it under control which maybe an organizational change/new approach will help him and he’ll turn out to be a cheap BP guy in a few years. On that note, I agree with you 100%, I never was big on Hawksworth and hopefully Sanchez turns out to be our closer in 2012 after Franklin retires.
Keep in mind this will be his 3rd org. He came to SEA from NYM in the Putz deal.
On a totally seperate topic, I’m extremely excited about Carlos Matias and what he could turn into. With his power arm and his control already decent at his age, how come he isn’t coming in higher in the baseball worlds (excluding Cards fans) prospect rankings? I know he hasn’t pitched in the states yet but he absolutely tore up the DSL. He could possibly end up being better than Shelby. A year from now he’s either going to be a waste of 1.5M or high up on many prospect boards. A 2014 rotation of Waino, Garcia, Shelby, Matias and Jenkins sounds great to me (and a hell of a lot cheaper than what we’re spending on the rotation this year)!
As I’m sure you know, the chances of Miller, Matias and Jenkins all panning out are next to none, plus having Garcia and Wainwright still healthy then. Not that it wouldn’t be awesome of course.
Of course all of them won’t pan out, but that would be one amazing staff if it panned out and they lived up to the hype. I would take Waino, Garcia, Miller, Matias and someone shitty (Lynn) and be perfectly happy. Very excited about Oscer Tavares as a 20/20 possibility too by 2014 or so. How much of a bonus did we give him? I can’t find it anywhere.
That’s what I’m talking about!!! We’re going to be the team of teen’s.
While we are at it I’m really looking forward to next year. I watched the Riverbandits quite a few times against Peoria last year and really enjoyed their roster. They were about 1000 times better than the year before. Looking forward to seeing a new batch of player there. Probably will have some hold overs and the creme of the Batavia class?
Very true, and I’m much more excited about our system as a whole (minus AAA) now than I was a year ago. For the first time in a long time we have multiple “high upside” guys. I’m curious as to where Zach Cox will start and if they will use their heads and move him to 2nd. Wouldn’t it be great to see him at 2nd with 20HR and 300 avg possible and Carpenter at 3rd in a few years for quite cheap?
Memphis has graduated a lot of players but they will have Carpenter, A. Chambers, Lynn, Descalso, Anderson, D. Jones. A team worth watching but not any high end prospects. I have Descalso on the list because I don’t see him as a viable middle infield bench player because he bats left handed and they need a right handed bench middle infielder. Ryan, of course, would have been perfect for this role. Plus fielder at SS and 2B, right handed bat. I still mystified the organization traded Ryan for a pale imitation of Samuel.
As far as I can see, Cleto is a much better prospect than Samuel now, and probably ever. He’s been working as a starter (which Samuel has never done) and, whilst his K rate is worse, he has at least shown some semblance of control that may make it to the majors, which Samuel has never done. He’s also at a broadly age-appropriate level (Samuel will be getting old this year for a bad AA-reliever) and has the same power arm, albeit minus the nice slider that Samuel would have if he had a clue where it was going. I don’t even think Samuel is really a prospect any more, but Cleto is probably in our top-20 quite comfortably, and you could argue for him anywhere around 12-15.
Right now Descalso is in STL as a backup MI along with Greene. That may change though.
Eh…It’s really a pretty close call to me. Theriot is at best a push with Ryan overall, and will likely be $1.5M more each of the next two years before becoming a FA. I believe Hawk still has one season before arby, so he was a decent/cheap BP arm. I’d say the odds of Cleto ever being a set-up/closer at the ML level are less than 50% due to his lack of control. I think we won the Theriot/Hawksworth trade, especially if salaries aren’t an issue. The Ryan/Cleto trade is probably a slight loss in my opinion only due to the uncertainty of Cleto’s success. If we disregard the money I’d say it’s a slight win…considering the money it’s maybe a push.
I think that is the best assessment. A push. I mean what are we really talking about here? 2 average/utility infielders, one under achieving BP arm and one inconsistent arm.
Its a flop.
An inconsistent, but unbendable short stop was exchanged for a non-sexy but know quantity shortstop.
A non-sexy, slightly underperforming bullpen arm was exchanged for an inconsistent, but unbankable power arm.
Is that you Fozard? It’s Pete Wilson. I’m glad we don’t have to suffer through late inning Blake Hawksworth adventures anymore. I was a fan of Brendan Ryan’s defense and personality, but doesn’t even seem more than marginal with the bat. Tyler Greene can provide a good deal of replacement for his defense and projects to be at least a reasonable upgrade with the bat. I don’t know why, but I’ve always kind of liked Theriot (though would love him much more at 2B).
I say our bullpen is going to be a major strength in all facets this year with the all-season inclusion of Salas and Sanchez. Also the continued development of Motte and Boggs could make for a hammer like bridge to the Ryan Franklin experiment. Here’s hoping one of the two of them can force the issue of taking some save opps from Frankey.
Not fozard.
I like theriot for his flexibility. Still leaves the cards with the potential of improving at either position.
I just don’t get cardinal fans somtimes. They love Ryan and his sub .280 obp, but can’t stand Franklin. Franklin was so terrible, he actually blew 3 less saves than Mariono Rivera.
i’m ok with hawk for theriot as a good deal for stl, but
it loses a lot of luster when they play him at short
i can’t say anything about br as a team-mate, but baseball-wise
theriot-ryan would have been an overall stronger pair than theriot-skip will be
This…
I was excited at the idea of Theriot at 2nd/Ryan at SS. Wasn’t quite sure what to do with Skip (6th OFer/backup 2B?). Now Skippy looks like our starter at 2nd. At least this leaves room for Greene as a bench player (praying the team doesn’t bring back Miles to backup Theriot). Maybe by mid-year it can be Greene at SS with Theriot at 2nd.
I’m not a math guy either (I don’t even know what proofing is) but the big win I always saw with this was the improvement vs LHP. Of course, this is dependent on Greene at SS and Theriot at 2B. I doubt that’s a given.
What a flawed premise. Have you forgotten the real bottom line here? Money? Start with the reason Theriot was available: the Dodgers knew he’d get $3million or so in arbitration and didn’t think he’d be worth it. Therefore, his trade value was essentially 0. Hawksworth’s value was equally low because it was likely that the Cards would have to option him (or keep him on the roster even though they had better choices).
So the equation is actually Theriot + Cleto >= Ryan + Hawksworth + $2 million (the difference in Theriot and Ryan’s salaries).
Personally, I’d like to be counted among the folks who applauded the Theriot deal originally but turned their smile upside down when Mo quickly announced that they were dumping Ryan too. Not only would I have rather kept Ryan so he could be part of a three headed middle infield or a defensive and baserunning replacement, I also think the announcement decreased his value and led to them “only” getting Cleto in return.
“only” getting cleo? what is the going rate for shortstops who can’t hit these days. If this is such a hot commodity, why not just sign Adam Everett and keep your own player?
It seems that people are vastly overrated Ryan’s value.
I think the dumping of Ryan was a major error on the part of the Cardinals. He was arguably the best fielding shortstop in
the national league. I live in California and the LA Times quoted Dodger officials as stating that Theriot was not a competent
major league shortstop. At best he was a marginal second baseman. The Dodgers officials also had made clear that they
were not going to tender Theriot. So if the Cardinals had waited a few weeks thay could have obtined Theriot at not cost.
In 2011 I predict Ryan will win acclaim as the best defensive shortstop in the AL. I also predict that Ryan will have a higher
batting average than Theriot. I also predict that Theriot will not play for the Cardinals in 2012.
i suspect we all hope you are right about 2012 come august
or june
A good effort.
I think only one assumption really matters: Theriot > Ryan (once again, let’s assume that the Cards believe this and are correct)
Assuming that is the case, we have lost nothing in terms of breadth (Hawk=Salas/Sanchez) and we have improved an important weakness (SS)
I also like the Berkmann deal. We now have better OF depth (with Craig and Jay moved to substitute duties) and lineup depth (Lance in the 6 hole sounds a heck of a lot better than Yadi in the 6 hole).
I think the Central is a 3 horse race. I would like to believe that we have tightened the gap between 1 and 2, but I think the gap between 2 and 3 (Brewers) is even tighter. On paper, all 3 teams look like legit 90 win clubs.