And now we arrive at the 2007 draft where the pick in question centers around the Cardinals first choice overall: Pete Kozma. At the time of the draft, Kozma was billed as a jack of all trades and master of none. 16 picks later, the Reds selected Todd Frazier with the 34th overall pick in the first supplemental round. At least this conversation won’t be about Rick Porcello, right?
Lots of people were critical of the Kozma pick at the time of the draft, you’ll find some of those people here, because he didn’t look like a first round pick. The Cardinals were out to get a shortstop that draft cycle though and Kozma was the best choice within a limited field.
There may not be a true middle infielder drafted in the first round this year, but Kozma is as good a candidate as any. He impressed scouting directors when his team made a swing through Florida in late March, and he had a three-homer game in an Oklahoma 6-A playoff contest. Kozma has no true standout tool, but he also has no glaring weakness. He grades out as average to slightly above-average in every tool except power, and he does have pop. His instincts help him play above his physical ability at bat, on the bases and in the field. He has good plate coverage and uses the entire field, projecting as a future No. 2 hitter in a big league lineup. Coming into the spring, some scouts questioned whether he’d be a long-term shortstop, but he has no doubters now. A Wichita State recruit, Kozma draws raves for his consistency and energy as well.
It’s unfortunate that none of this report still seems applicable to Kozma today. I’d be hard pressed to label his defense or offense as average or better. He struggles mentally in the field and his game would seem to have deteriorated since the draft.
I was a fan of Todd Frazier during the draft though I liked him as more of a supplemental pick. The Reds snatched him up two selections before Clayton Mortensen was drafted by the Cardinals. Frazier is and has been regarded as more of a third base prospect than a true shortstop. Here’s his draft time report:
Todd is the third Frazier brother who will be drafted, following Jeff (Mariners) and Charlie (Marlins) in the legacy of the famed Tom’s River, N.J., Little League teams of the late 1990s. He has been a three-year starter at Rutgers and carved a reputation as a solid all-around player with a long track record of performance despite a modest tool set. He raised his profile by showing plus power with wood last summer with the college national team, but scouts are apprehensive about his long-term ability to hit for average because of unorthodox swing mechanics. He’s a solid-average runner with adequate hands and an average arm, tools that might play at third base or second, but not at shortstop. His instincts and makeup are outstanding, and if he gets to his power as a pro, he’ll play his way into a big league lineup. He should be drafted no later than the second round.
He’s hit at every level he’s played thus far recording a .258/.333/.448 line in 500+ PAs at AAA last season. It’s not a world-beating line but it’s also his WORST season to date and he’s still an above average player relative to AAA competition. If Frazier cuts down on his strikeouts, he could be an excellent offensive talent.
The question for the purposes of this series has been whether the Cardinals “missed” on their choice of infielders. I have a hard time arguing that Frazier was a mid-first round talent at the time of draft. Obviously, I’ve long thought the Kozma pick was a miss but I’m not sure I would have pushed for Frazier that high despite my penchant for him. While Kozma was a clear miss, I have a hard time holding the draft team responsible for not finding Frazier in our farm system.
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It would have been nice if the Cardinals would have gotten Porcello, then the Reds grab Kozma with their supplemental, and we ended up with Frazier.
With Koz, it may be worth asking why he hasn’t developed. The profile above just screams “journeyman middle infielder” — not exactly what you hope to get with a first-round draft choice — but he hasn’t even “developed” into something as ho-hum as that. Yes, I know he is still relatively young, and he may not be done developing yet, but I still wonder: is there anything the franchise could have done to help him make more progress? The one thing that scouts back then were generally fairly upbeat about was that he was reputed to have a pretty good head on his shoulders. I, for one (disclaimer: I’m certainly not a scout), thought that that would give him a reasonable chance of reaching his full potential, however limited that might be. It hasn’t happened. So did something happen along the way that tore a muscle in his brain, one that hasn’t healed yet?
This illustrates the folly of drafting for need in baseball. Take the best available talent regardless of position and you avoid these types of reaches.
Agree completely particularly if you’re drafting a high school kid who will take at least four years or so to make the majors. Needs are almost certain to change in that time. Unless, I guess,it’s the middle infield needs for the Cardinals. It’s too bad that minor league trades have fallen out of favor for some reason. Given the likelihood of each team’s needs changing from the time a prospect is drafted to the time they’re ready for the majors you would think that trading prospects for prospects could be a way for teams to solve their current needs.
yea
who would have guessed we would have gone out and obtained theriot to be our shortstop of the future
plus it is not just kozma, what happens to all of our middle infielders?
Here is hoping that Kozma puts it all together this year and they start him in AAA. He is still young…
What nobody wants to discuss with Porcello is the contract, not jus the amount but the type. He signed a major league contract, so he was afforded no development time, which isn’t usually wise for a high school pitcher. Now he lost a year to injury and will be a free agent in just 3 more years.
Teh Brewers got lucky he only needed 1 year to develop. That luck run out last year.
I would never sign a high school player to a major league contract. The gap between HS and the pros is to great to bet on not needing development time.
I wouldn’t say he only needed 1 year to develop and he wasn’t injured last year, just ineffective and sent to the minors to work it out. I honestly do not think DET wanted to have him in the majors last year, but they had no other decent option as a 5th starter. If you look at his numbers, he very rarely went 6 innings or threw 100 pitches so he needed more development time.
I thought he had somthing wrong last year that caused him to loose MPH and was more hittable? Maybe I was wrong.
Either way, it highlights the problem of giving an 18 year old a major leage contract. It forces your hand if they are ready or not.
The Tigers have seen their investment repaid in full and then repaid again. Porcello’s performance to date has more than justified the paltry 7M dollars that’s spread over 6 years. Even if you tack on another 4M for the signing bonus, the Tigers are in the black.
How ya figger, AZ? Yes, 3.2 WAR in 2009 are worth more than the $11M they’ve committed to him — allegedly. However, they didn’t just commit that money; they also committed a first-round draft pick, and a first-round pick should be good for more than 5 WAR over a career, or he’s a “failed” pick in terms of opportunity cost. (Don’t get me going on what that says about Kozma, Ottavino, etc.) If they did manage to break Porcello with the high usage — I’m not convinced they did, but if — then no, they have not “seen their investment repaid in full” when you calculate opportunity cost as well as the unnecessary contractural obligations.
If the “opportunity cost” is another draft pick, you have to take out that draft picks bonus from the equation. It’s more like they spent an additional $8M on their draft pick than usual. I don’t consider Porcello to be anything less than a push right now.
I agree with that assesment. However, the problem is that a “push” seems to be the best case scenario for this type of situation. How many others don’t work out.
The money I actually don’t have a problem with. Its the fact the pitchers in this siutation are 18 an automaticly added to the 40 man roster is the issue.
Just a clarification: Porcello’s contract was 4 years plus two option years, and he had a $3.5 million signing bonus on top of that. With the signing bonus, he was paid out $7.285 million for his guaranteed years. The option years are only $1.536 million and $1.344 million.
A great deal for the Tigers, but I wouldn’t go so far as to say “repaid and repaid again” for a guy who’s only had one good year and one ineffective year in the majors. They didn’t get killed, but its not like their investment was a big payoff. They invested for a guy they hoped would be fixture in the top of their rotation. The jury’s still out on that.
I’m not sure that the jury is still out… Porcello’s K rate has been terribly unimpressive. He’s pitching like a middle of the rotation guy. Were it not for that contract, I’d say he was a bonafide first round pick… But, he’s having to run to give value thanks to the Boras’ connection…and last year was a step in the wrong direction.
‘Cause it’s only two seasons, which were not identical. I don’t believe in writing off a young player after a single bad season.
(His SO/9 in 2008–his only full season in the minors–was 5.2. It’s been 4.7 and 4.6 the past two seasons in the majors)
The Tigers?
What was laughable was that the Cards said that HS pitchers were too risky. 2 reasons that is funny – 1) They drafted Shelby just 2 years later and 2) HS SS’s drafted in the first round who aren’t top 10 picks are some of the worst bets on the planet. Last first round HS SS drafted after pick 10 who stayed at short and had any impact – Royce Clayton 1988.
High-school pitchers who demand *major-league contracts* ARE risky — probably too risky. That’s the big difference between their willingness to sign Shelby, who is getting a great huge pile of money but on a “standard” contract, and unwillingness to go for Porcello, who made no secret of wanting a big-league contract. (Quoth Kevin Goldstein at BP: “according to one insider, Boras has indicated that Porcello wants, ‘Josh Beckett money, adjusted for inflation.’ Beckett’s deal included a big-league contract worth $7 million, and that was eight years ago.”)
As for point 2, I’d consider Kelly Johnson (drafted in 2000 as a SS, 1st round supplemental) a success story even if he moved to 2B. Jimmy Rollins (1996) was a second rounder, and an obvious success. J.J. Hardy (2001) was another one. Chase Utley was another who started as a SS. Even though he didn’t stay there, going for that particular “high-school shortstop” has won people in Philadelphia some rings. (Yes, I am aware that he didn’t sign straight out of high school.) Even the very non-shortstoppy Hank Blalock (1999) was drafted as a “high-school shortstop” even though he made the corner migration immediately on arrival in the pro game.
Yes, some HS shortstops picked with picks 10-31 have moved and been successful but if our goal was a SS then that doesn’t count (plus, not sure Kozma has the bat to play elsewhere). Some HS SS’s picked after the 1st round have also been successful but neither of those situations negate what I said.
With most of the guys I cited (Blalock was almost certainly an exception), the “hope” would have been that they would be athletic enough to stay at short, but would have the bat to be useful if their athleticism didn’t allow it. The ones who were not that athletic (Johnson, Utley) still qualify as “successes” in that they have helped their teams.
And there, possibly, is the problem with drafting Koz. In him the team got a guy who couldn’t play anywhere in the bigs EXCEPT at shortstop, because it was clear even before he was drafted that he wasn’t going to have the kind of offensive tools necessary to move from short to second or third, let alone an offense-first position. Problem is, he hasn’t (yet) turned out to be even an adequate shortstop.
As I noted above, drafting for need is folly. That being said, Kozma has been a disappointment even if he were drafted later. He has failed to live up to his predraft scouting reports. I don’t know if that suggests bad development, bad work habits or bad scouting.
Kozma has done about as well as to be expected. He is an ok hitter for the low OPS position of SS. Lots of AA shortstops rack up errors. He can improve his defensive reliability the next couple of years. After a season of Theriot, Kozma is going to start looking pretty good.
I agree, and I would love to have a SS in St. Louis who could get 70 RBI. Was Brendan Ryan any better of a defender in the minors than Kozma?
I haven’t seen Koz play, so have no basis for comparison, but on purely statistical grounds, yes, Boog was better. He had a slightly but significantly higher zone rating (4.68 vs. 4.57 or something like that), and half as many errors per chance. Normally errors are not a good metric for defense, but Koz has so many of them, to go along with a good-but-not-great zone rating, that you start to wonder whether he’s having attention problems or something.