I have a feeling this will become a yearly missive. I’ll keep this short as I attempt to round up all the prospect list links.
ZiPS projects Bryan Anderson as a .261/.319/.387 hitter in the majors for 2011. No great shakes by most interpretations. That translates to something around a .310 wOBA or about 8 runs worse than average over 600 PAs. That’s not actually terrible for a catcher.
Gerald Laird projects as a .240/.302/.342 hitter in 2011 or roughly a .285 wOBA.
Arguments for Gerald Laird to be the 2011 backup catcher have to include a rational discussion as to how he is 15 runs better (over a full season; prorate accordingly) defensively relative to Bryan Anderson. That is to say you’d have to believe Gerald Laird is a little better than average and Bryan Anderson is well below average behind the plate. It’s the minimum hurdle that has to be overcome and only serves as a starting point for potential discussions regarding platooning, age, injury risk, etc.
Succinctly, this looks like a bad decision to me. It’s more runs lost at the margins of the team. Eventually, those add up.
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The problem is that the back up catcher is looking at 1 start week and maybe 10 abs a week at most. Anderson needs playing time, which won’t happen at the major league level.
Plus, to assume a decent batting line with a rookie playing so sparingly is unrealistic. So therefore, Anderson is best served playing at Memphis. Getting bad defence and stunting development is not really worth hoping for an extra single every other week.
No, if Yadi were to get hurt, I would want to see Anderson get consistant playing time and Laird simply keep his backup roll.
I really don’t think Anderson needs playing time. This will be his third full year in AAA. If he’s not ready yet, I don’t think he’ll ever be.
Agree with purple_haze. The Cardinals organization no longer views Anderson as a prospect. He’s in AAA as the 3rd catcher on the depth chart only to be used on an emergency basis. They have no future plans for him otherwise Laird would have never been acquired. This is another case of the LaDuncan tax, irrational decisions that sooth the phobias of our manager.
He isn’t that old. I also doubt he holds much trade value. Sure he used to probably have more, but if he is that valuable why trade him?
I do not disagree that the Cards manager and pitching coach may not like the defensive aspects of Anderson’s game, including his game calling, but to say that the Cards organization no longer views Anderson a prospect ignores that that they sent down Jones, Ottavino, Pagnozzi etc, and kept Anderson on their 40 man roster which they could have utilized for someone else. He must have some value to some team, Cards or another team, or they would have attempted to pass him through waivers also.
Oddly, the emphasis on defense at catcher is one of the few of TLR’s bees in his bonnet that I agree with. Having said that I do feel sorry for Anderson. Fact is he could have hit a lot better than he has in AAA and still be in this limbo position. For both his and the team’s sake he should have been rolled into a trade a couple of years ago. He simply will not stick with the CArdinals at least as long as Tony is here.
What I don’t understand is why we never obtain a back up who Tony would feel comfortable enough with to give Yadi the rest he needs to extend his career. Someday, and I suspect it’s soon, Yadi himself will only have enough left to be a backup and we’ll be searching for a starter. I don’t know Laird from Adam and maybe he’s good enough defensively to spell Yadi more often. I doubt it though and I think we’ll see Yadi out there too much for his own good.
He’s gonna platoon with Cruz at Memphis, so it’s not like he’ll be playing everyday there either…
Sorry…I’ve never bought the argument that one catcher’s offense is the primary reason to chose one over the other. It cuts out far too many other factors for one of the more important positions on the defensive side of the game. It’s more than just a defensive metric–it’s the ability to run the game itself. And on LaRussa/Duncan teams, they rely on those kinds of catchers to handle their pitching staff. From Tom Pagnozzi to Mike Matheny to Yadier Molina. You want offense out of your catcher; nobody’s arguing that. But focusing on offense while ignoring the catcher’s main role behind the plate? No.
Also, Tony Cruz spent 46 games in Palm Beach, 40 games in Springfield, and only 4 games in Memphis last season. My guess is that he’ll be the starter in Springfield–he’s got the same developmental track as Anderson in that he’s got a good bat but needs to work on the defensive aspects of the game, so he’ll need more game time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Steven Hill backing up Anderson next season, at least to start.
ZiPS projections are essentially probability distributions, and are probably pretty flat ones, especially for players with limited data, like Anderson. Over 200 PA’s (my guess for how many PA’s the backup catcher will get), the ZiPS probability distributions for Anderson and Laird could have (and probably do) have significant overlap, making any practical expected difference between the two very, very minimal.
“That is to say you’d have to believe Gerald Laird is a little better than average and Bryan Anderson is well below average behind the plate.”
As to this, it’s not too hard to believe. In 2009, according to BR’s total zone runs for catchers — a stat Yadi has led the NL in 5 out of the last 6 years w/ an average of about 13 — Laird led the majors with 14. Just one data point but it does show that Laird is capable of elite defensive catching according to one stat that purports to judge it. (Also, anecdotally, the yearly leaders in the stat consistently track who’s who of the best defensive catchers). In contrast, Anderson has not had a good reputation as a defensive catcher.
I always thought Bryan Anderson’s problem wasn’t his defense so much, but the fact that he doesn’t know how to call a good game. I remember the Lohse game against the Diamondbacks, and they were not syncing up at all. Of course that might just be Lohse’s fault, but I think thats the problem, not so much on defense.
I was going to say (until I read your last sentence) that I would not use Lohse as the barometer of whether a catcher is making good decisions or not behind the plate. My only complaint about Anderson’s mechanics is the funny way he frames the target for the pitcher. He stabs his glove at the location then readjusts his body (causing his glove to move) as the pitcher is in his windup. He’s the opposite of quiet behind the plate.
Does anyone really need ZIPs to know that signing Gerald Laird is a bad idea?