This post compiles the top 20 from last year’s rankings. We’ll begin ranking 2011′s top 20 Cardinal Prospects next week.

#20. Adron Chambers
Age – 23
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – N/A, Jeff Roman – 19, erik – N/A
Player Comments –

I love Adron, I think he has the base stealing speed and defensive speed for CF.  As long as he can get his OBP up and keep legging out triples, he should get a lot more attention – Jeff Roman

No longer a sleeper, I like his secondary skills. He doesn’t hit for power but he has a lot of speed and range in the outfield. My wildly optimistic comparison for Chambers is Nyjer Morgan. – erik

#19. Adam Ottavino
Age – 24
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 14, Jeff Roman – N/A, erik – 17
Player Comments -

Eh. Ottavino had some ups and down and bouts with wildness, but he had some solid outings this past season. I think his stuff would play up well coming out of the bullpen. Repeating Memphis for  3rd time would not be a badge of honor, but it looks like that’s where he’s headed for one more last ditch effort at remaining a starter. -erik

This ranking is for all the times I was accused of being too down on Adam Ottavino during DFRs.  In seriousness, Ottavino still has the potential to harness his stuff as a starting pitcher as opposed to other prospects who have the potential to harness their stuff as relievers.  That makes a huge difference in value as even moderately successful starters are as valuable as all but the most elite of relievers.  Control will be the unmaking of Ottavino, as it is for so many prospects in the Cardinals’ system, unless he can get that straightened out. -azruavatar

Oh no, it looks like I’m the Ottavino downer in the group.  I just think he’s getting a little old for not having figured out AAA and his upside is getting lower by the year. - Jeff Roman

#18. Joe Kelly
Age -22
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 18, Jeff Roman – 17, erik – 16
Player Comments -

There’s not a lot separating Kelly, Samuel and Reifer for me. Kelly has the arsenal to move quickly through the system as a reliever. I like the idea of letting him try his hand at starting, it could be an experiment that pays off. -erik

The Cardinals have made a habit in the last few years of drafting and signing high powered arms with flaws.  Kelly has the stuff to move rapidly but the danger is that he’s completely derailed by command or health. -azruavatar

#17. Francisco Samuel
Age – 23
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 16, Jeff Roman – 16, erik – 18
Player Comments –

How the mighty have fallen when they lose their control and lose their closer position.  He will be in the minors until he finds it again (if ever). - Jeff Roman

Throw strikes, Francisco. He’s could be our own Carlos Marmol, only with worse control. -erik

#16. Blake Hawksworth
Age – 27
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – N/A, Jeff Roman – 15, erik – 13
Player Comments -

I was a bit surprised to see him crack BA’s top ten, even as thinned out as they system has become. I have up higher than my compatriots because he’s shown he can get major league hitters out. He’s added a cut fastball to go with a solid change. I think he could be the team’s 5th starter. -erik

Easily the most perplexing choice of 2010 top prospect lists for me is the inclusion of Blake Hawksworth.  Perhaps its some nostalgia from his days as a starter but even as a reliever he lacks anything resembling a true out pitch.  His statistics in St. Louis were awful and buoyed by deceptive home run rate, strand rate and BABIP none of which are sustainable into the future.  He’s a middling reliever on his good days and someone who doesn’t belong in the majors on his bad days.  Essentially, he’s the new Kyle McClellan. – -azruavatar

As you can see from the rankings, I’m in between AZ and erik on Blake.  He’s older than Ottavino, but he’s pitched well in Memphis and had some success in the bigs, no matter how flimsy.  He’s in the long line for Brad Thompson’s job going forward. – Jeff Roman

#15. Adam Reifer
Age – 23
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 17, Jeff Roman – 14, erik – 15
Player Comments -

Can I explain his .362 BABIP away with just dumb luck? I don’t know. I was expecting more K’s, less hits and more…hatred. I don’t know what happened here, but I’m willing to give Reifer a little benefit of the doubt given his ability. -erik

The purported stuff of Reifer has never matched his results. He’s another power arm that struggles to put hitters away consistently.  The Cardinals have seen too many of these players flame out in recent seasons. -azruavatar

#14. Pete Kozma
Age – 22
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 13, Jeff Roman – 13, erik – 19
Player Comments –

Kozma has never done anything to deserve to be ranked this low in the Cardinals rankings, but he has never done anything to deserve to be ranked higher than this.  He’s above average at every tool, but has never had great results.  He’s a milk toast SS. - Jeff Roman

I normally am the Kozmanaut apologist, but now I see I’m lower on the Koz than my compatriots. He was moved too fast, didn’t hit and struggled a bit defensively.  If he can play solid defense, he doesn’t have to be the world’s greatest hitter. His ability to stick at short is his only saving grace for me at the moment.  -erik

This was the worst draft pick to date for Jeff Luhnow and Co. Widely derided at the time, it’s yet to come to the fruition they had hoped for. -azruavatar

#13. Bryan Anderson
Age – 23
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 7, Jeff Roman – 18, erik – 14
Player Comments -

Anderson is suffering from Jason Kendall-itis way too soon in his career. He did have some injuries that set him back. I keep hearing Anderson needs to hit for power. That would be gravy, but he doesn’t need to. He just needs to go back to being Bryan Anderson at the plate.  And he has to improve on defense. Anderson doesn’t have to be Mike Matheny, he just needs to not be a big, fat minus. An average hitter (.330 wOBA) that can play catcher (the most demanding position) is an above average player. Anderson was one of the younger players in the PCL last year, let’s also not forget that. -erik

The shoulder gives me cause for concern but, to me, there’s some bandwagon downgrading of Anderson going on.  The obsession with “power” and the team’s reluctance to give him regular and primary catching responsibilities at Memphis have cast a pall on a player who was part of the top 5 in most rankings last year.  Anderson deserves to be marked down for another lackluster season but the precipitous decline strikes me as too reactionary and ignores the positives of why he was drafted and what he’s done to date.  At 23, he has a couple years before his physical attributes and skillset are done developing; it’s too soon to officially pull the plug on his prospect status. -azruavatar

I’m worried a bit about Anderson, he hasn’t caught regularly in a while and he lost the last part of 2009 to an injury.  I’m cautiously optimistic about Anderson, but I’ll believe it when I see it. - Jeff Roman

#12. Jon Jay
Age – 25
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 15, Jeff Roman – 9, erik – 11
Player Comments –

Jon Jay could play any outfield position right now in the bigs defensively. - Jeff Roman

While his bat went down the tubes for several months this year, he’s stopped nosediving and his outfield range is solid. Jay for 4th OF! -erik

#11. Tyler Henley
Age – 25
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 8, Jeff Roman – 11, erik – 12
Player Comments -

Can Henley hit at the Triple-A level like he did in Springfield? He strikes me as one with a bit of a tweener skillset, this is one ranking I’m sort of having #hpgf remorse on. If he can hit at the Triple-A level next year, then color me a believer. -erik

Henley makes his way into my top 10 as a player we’ve never had to make excuses for; there’s no lost season that has to be explained away.  He plays solid defense; he’s hit for average and moderate power without the unsustainable BABIPs that other prospects have shown.  As a jack of all trades and master of none, he’s going to disappoint people looking for a standout skill.  He’s also on the wrong team as a left handed hitting outfielder who can play a capable CF blocked by Colby Rasmus and competing with Jon Jay/Daryl Jones.  He’s got a shot at being an everyday outfielder in the majors but the more likely result is a bench role with significant plate appearances. -azruavatar

Tyler Henley is a character who has never been hyped (except by AZ) and who has continually put up numbers in each level.  He doesn’t hit for a lot of power, or hit for a huge average, but he’s a solid player who has continually produced in the minors.  Those aren’t that easy to come by in the Cards system. – Jeff Roman

#10. Tyler Greene
Age – 26
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 9, Jeff Roman – 12, erik – 10
Player Comments -

Tyler Greene deserves more pub for the season he had. A .390 wOBA at the shortstop position is nothing to sneeze at, even if he is 26 years old. He didn’t quite show it at the major league level, but he only had just a little over 100 at-bats to prove himself. I love his ability to steal bases, 34/37 attempts is great production. He doesn’t have the glove Ryan has (few do) but I think he may have finally blossomed into a productive player. I think he could hold down SS and not embarrass himself if need be, and he should prove to be a nifty utility infielder.-erik

I’ve always thought Ty Greene had a place at starting SS for the Cardinals before the emergence of Brendan Ryan. He can play and when Julio Lugo departs or gets injured, Greene will fill that role for the Cards. – Jeff Roman

#9. Robert Stock
Age – 20
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 11, Jeff Roman – 10, erik – 9
Player Comments -

This ranking may be some trepidation from Bryan Anderson never quite developing in the fashion expected. It’s also relates to the fact that Stock hit miserably in 2009 in college.  I like Stock better as a pitcher and it’s somewhat consoling to know that there’s a viable fallback option if the bat doesn’t develop for him to sustain a career as a position player.-azruavatar

His upside is perceived to be a little higher than I think it actually is, but you don’t have to be Mike Piazza with the bat to have high value as a catcher. The good news is that Stock comes with a back-up plan. -erik

#8. Daniel Descalso
Age – 23
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 12, Jeff Roman – 7, erik – 8
Player Comments -

We will need to see if he can match his strong 2009 with a 2010 to match, but he has a smooth stroke. – Jeff Roman

The power spike in Springfield looks aberrant to me.  If it is, we’re left with a contact hitting middle infielder with decent plate discipline.  Jarrett Hoffpauir and Jose Martinez are good names to remember when discussing that skillset at 2nd base.  The poor performance at Memphis and Arizona erased most of the dangerous infatuation with the Springfield statistics. -azruavatar

I don’t believe Descalso is Hoffpauir part 2, mostly because he’s has been about as good of a hitter at a younger age. And he plays an average second base, while Hoffpauir stinks. That being said, if his bat isn’t good enough to start, he might have a tough time latching on as a utility infielder, given he couldn’t play every infield position (SS) -erik

#7. David Freese
Age – 27
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 10, Jeff Roman – 8, erik – 5
Player Comments -

With the recent DWI, Freese seems to have screwed up off the field to hurt his chances on the field again this season (not saying his auto accident last year was his fault, just saying it happened).  He could still end up the Cardinals starting 3B in 2010, but he rep has taken a huge hit both inside and outside the clubhouse.  He’s got lots to prove still, so hopefully he will come to Spring Training to earn the job. - Jeff Roman

Freese is very average, but very ready. For two years running, his minor league numbers tell us he could be around a two-win starting third baseman, something that has a lot of value. And for two years running, Freese has had different run-ins that involve a car, one at least we know involves alcohol. Freese’s own immaturity is all that is keeping him back now. -erik

#6. Allen Craig
Age – 25
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 5, Jeff Roman – 6, erik – 7
Player Comments -

Craig might be the only player drafted by the Cardinals that hasn’t had the proverbial “lost season”.  There is no wait for him to rebound; he simply performs at the same caliber he always has.  Left field has some steep requirements relative to offensive production and that threshold likely keeps Craig from ever being elite at the position.  He’s a legitimate offensive threat with the best power production of anyone currently in the Cardinals’ minor league system. -azruavatar

As long as he keeps hitting and for power, he will be a great bench bat at the very least, with the possibility of being the latest 1B/3B/LF platoon player in 2010 and could grab a starting job going forward.  The Cards don’t have another viable power hitter in their system. – Jeff Roman

Scouts don’t seem particularly wowed with his skillset, and he’s limited to the wrong end of the defensive spectrum now, but all Craig does is hit, year in, year out. It’s like clockwork. Memphis was the test I was waiting to see Craig pass, and he did so with flying colors. He’s going to have to continue to improve with the bat to be an above average LF given the offensive requirements, but I would not bet against Craig at this point. -erik

#5. Eduardo Sanchez
Age – 21
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 4, Jeff Roman – 5, erik – 6
Player Comments -

Chris Perez got ranked highly for years because of his pure stuff.  Sanchez combines excellent stuff with the best command the organization has seen from someone featuring a fastball over 95 and a second pitch. (Jason Motte pre-STL had excellent command.)  He’s the only reliever in the system that can reliably pound the strike zone with two plus pitches. -azruavatar

Great stuff plus great command at both Memphis and Springfield will vault you up the rankings quickly.  He’s got two plus pitches and experience and success in the 9th inning. – Jeff Roman

Sanchez has all the ingredients needed to be an effective high leverage reliever. -erik

#4. Lance Lynn
Age – 23
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 6, Jeff Roman – 4, erik – 4
Player Comments -

If I had better options, I’d have ranked Lynn lower but the Cardinals’ farm system is thin at the top.  He lacks a true out pitch and gets most of his high marks because analysts like his “bulldog demeanor”. Being fierce on the mound doesn’t record outs though. -azruavatar

Lance Lynn’s upside is around a 3rd starter, and when you are talking 3rd starters at #4, that’s a thin system.  That’s not a knock on Lynn as Lynn is solid, but nothing spectacular.  Lynn should move quickly through the Cards system and be an innings eater in the majors. -Jeff Roman

Lynn’s ceiling appears to be that of a league average innings muncher (LAIM). That’s not a knock, the going rate for an average pitcher on the free agent market  is $6-9M per year these days. At least I think so, not many of them have signed yet this year…I’m thinking of Doug Davis, Jon Garland, et al. -erik

#3. Daryl Jones
Age – 23
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 3, Jeff Roman – 3, erik – 3
Player Comments –

He’ll be criticized for his lack of power but the reality is that he was never expected to be a 30+ HR type of player.  He’s still got the chance to be someone who laces doubles and triples around the field and relies on their speed to make up for their raw strength.  Injuries derailed his 2009 season and he’s reaching the point where lost years are no longer an option. -azruavatar

DJ Tools is a player who can put together numbers although he hasn’t been able to escape the injury bug.  He’s definitely a player to look out for as he could either justify his high ranking or fall way behind the pack this season. -Jeff Roman

Scouts that saw DJ in 2008 thought he was a major league regular. Scouts that saw DJ in 2009 thought he was a 4th OF. What happened? Injuries that slowed him down, and he had a bit of a different swing. Two things that are far beyond unfixable. His batting eye, speed and range in left field make up for his inability to hit for a lot of power. -erik

#2. Jaime Garcia
Age – 23
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 2, Jeff Roman – 2, erik – 2
Player Comments –

It’s hard not to get excited about Garcia’s performance returning from Tommy John surgery.  He showed no loss in velocity or the inconsistent command that generally plagues pitchers after this surgery.  There’s little reason to think he can’t be a starter in the major leagues this year but the Cardinals will likely control his innings by starting him in AAA. -azruavatar

It’s hard to remember the Jaime is only 23.  The Cards are taking it slow with him and rightly so after TJ surgery.  Another season in Memphis wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for Jaime, but if he’s healthy, look for him to be one of the first pitchers to get the call if injury strikes the bullpen or the rotation.  He’s lefty, has great command and offspeed pitches to control righties. He just needs to stay healthy. -Jeff Roman

There’s very little not to like about Garcia. He’s left-handed, gets gobs of groundballs and misses more than his fair share of bats. He’s young and showing no ill-effects from Tommy John surgery.The Cardinals should take it slow with Garcia. Once he passes the durability test, he’s golden. -erik

#1. Shelby Miller
Age – 19
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 1, Jeff Roman – 1, erik – 1
Player Comments –

There isn’t anyone in the system that has the upside of Miller.  If everything were to work out, he could be a 4-5 WAR type of starter (staff ace).  There just aren’t any other players like that.  The risk of failure looms large though. -azruavatar

Shelby is up here for his upside.  As AZ says, he’s a pitcher drafted out of high school, so the bust chance will always loom over him until he makes a major league rotation.  He’s still young and has time to make it.  The Cards have rushed some of their young 1st round picks (Kozma) but should give Miller a chance to both work through his struggles and experience success. -Jeff Roman

High-risk, high-reward starter. The failure rate of high school pitchers is mighty high. But the payoffs can be huge, and Miller has huge-payoff stuff. I can’t wait to track his progress this upcoming season. -erik

Individual Rankings

	Azru	Jeff	Erik
1	Shelby Miller	Shelby Miller	Shelby Miller
2	Jaime Garcia	Jaime Garcia	Jaime Garcia
3	Daryl Jones	Daryl Jones	Daryl Jones
4	Eduardo Sanchez	Lance Lynn	Lance Lynn
5	Allen Craig	Eduardo Sanchez	David Freese
6	Lance Lynn	Allen Craig	Eduardo Sanchez
7	Bryan Anderson	Daniel Descalso	Allen Craig
8	Tyler Henley	David Freese	Daniel Descalso
9	Tyler Greene	Jon Jay	Robert Stock
10	David Freese	Robert Stock	Tyler Greene
11	Robert Stock	Tyler Henley	Jon Jay
12	Daniel Descalso	Tyler Greene	Tyler Henley
13	Pete Kozma	Pete Kozma	Blake Hawksworth
14	Adam Ottavino	Adam Reifer	Bryan Anderson
15	Jon Jay	Blake Hawksworth	Adam Reifer
16	Francisco Samuel	Francisco Samuel	Joe Kelly
17	Adam Reifer	Joe Kelly	Adam Ottavino
18	Joe Kelly	Bryan Anderson	Francisco Samuel
19	Niko Vasquez	Adron Chambers	Pete Kozma
20	Fernando Salas	Blake King	Roberto de la Cruz

This entry was posted on Monday, December 27th, 2010 at 9:47 am and is filed under Prospect rankings. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.