As I was over the top prospects in the system last night, I was struck by something: the real lack of a power prospect.
Just stop and think about that for a second. Is there anyone in the system that you’d project with 30 HR power? Not me. Colby Rasmus used to fill that void. Brett Wallace filled it for some after Colby. Now 30 HRs is a pretty high threshold. There were only 18 major leaguers to hit 30 HRs last year.
So how about 25 HRs? Or 20? Once you get down to 20 I’d be inclined to start talking about a guy like Steve Hill or maybe Tommy Pham. I wouldn’t include Matt Carpenter there or any of the 4th outfielder types we have (Adron Chambers, Tyler Henley). Even the first base “prospects” like Mark Hamilton don’t strike me as someone I’d want to label with that power. Matt Adams hit 22 bombs in Modern Woodman Park last year; is our best power prospect in low-A? Is Zack Cox someone you want to include in this picture?
The Cardinals have a lot of intriguing pitchers and there are power arms littered throughout the system both as starters and relievers. The majority of the top prospects in the system are pitchers right now. Which all leads back to my original question – who is the Cardinals best power prospect and how many HRs would you project them to hit, on average, in the majors?
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This is a good question as we haven’t had many prospects that project for alot of power, but will take a stab at it, Nick Longmire would be my vote even though we haven’t seen what he can do at full season ball yet. He needs some work on his swing most likely, but in terms of power potential, would say he may have as much if not more than the other prospects in our system.
The situation with positional prospects in general in our system is fairly depressing. In terms of power, my (halfhearted) vote would be for Matt Adams. He’s still a long way from anything, but I think his 2010 is a good start to build on. If he hit with similar power in Palm Beach next year, I could see him fitting into our top 10, thin as we are.
does allen craig still qualify as a prospect? if so, he would get my vote.
He’ll be on our prospect lists since we only consider ABs/IP and not service time.
Someone who I don’t see with 30HR potential but could be a solid 20-20 guy is Oscar Tavares….. he’s still a long way from the majors, but I think he has the highest upside of any positional player in the system (even ahead of Z. Cox when it comes to upside). Matt Adams is another one who could end up being a 25HR plus, but he’s a long ways away also and who knows what will happen, on top of that, if we sign Albert long term, he better learn to play a new position yesterday.
I think it’s an understatement to say that we have a lack of position players in the system, but it’s hard not to be much more excited about our young starting pitchers in the system….. obviously Miller is #1, but out of Carlos Matias/Martinez, Jenkins, Blair, Hooker, Lynn and Kelly. How would you guys rank them?
Mine would be (assuming upside and potential, not closest to the bigs, etc)
1) Miller (doesn’t really need explaining)
2) Matias/Martinez (I’m the most excited about him because he’s such an unknown, reports say he could be a future CY winner or a bust)
3) Jenkins (we just need to take it slow with him, 2014 debut at the earliest)
4) Hooker (2011 will be make or break IMO)
5) Lynn (my guess is he gets called up in May when Lohse goes down)
6) Blair (#4 starter at best)
7) Kelly (who knows, will probably end up in the BP)
Thoughts??
In terms of pure power, I’d go with Matt Adams. But, Austin Wilson would have filled that void nicely :(
For present power, I’d say Mark Hamilton. He reminds me so much of C Duncan. If he is to reach his ceiling, I could see 20-25 a year for him as a safe bet. I wonder if he’ll ever reach that ceiling, however.
For longterm power, I’m going to throw out Oscar Taveras. That’s a pure gut-instinct guess though. I’ve never seen him (and suspect most others who venture here have not either). Based on some of the youtube videos, listed frame, and the very few scouting reports I’ve read on him, I would venture to project him as adding some bulk to his frame with age and perhaps adding more pop down the road. Again if he reaches his ceiling, and what that is I am not completely sure, I would bet he could be a 20-25 home run guy.
With all that being said, Taveras is the guy that I am most curious to read scouting reports on. Does anyone have any links to scouting reports that have already been put out on him? I know BA listed him as one of the top prospects in the appalachian league. That was a short report though.
Shanky, I agree with you that A Wilson would have filled that void nicely. I realize he was very strong on his commitment to Stanford, but I privately wonder why the team alledgedly did not make an offer to him. Something tells me not locking him up is gonna bite us in the rear down the road. Just me opinion though; easier said than done.
If by some miracle Scruggs could cut down on his K’s, he’d be a 25 HR guy easy. I like John Rodriguez who was a 20 y.o. 3B at Batavia last year and think his power is just starting to emerge.
Another John Rodriguez, huh? I’m intrigued.
Where’s Matt Arrbur when you need him! :)
I posted yesterday regarding our pitching prospects, we might not have a solid farm system but I feel like our pitching in the minors is well above average….. Can someone else please give thoughts/comments on the following guys, it’s about all there is to be excited about this time of year. Edit my rankings etc.
Mine would be (assuming upside and potential, not closest to the bigs, etc)
1) Miller (doesn’t really need explaining)
2) Matias/Martinez (I’m the most excited about him because he’s such an unknown, reports say he could be a future CY winner or a bust)
3) Jenkins (we just need to take it slow with him, 2014 debut at the earliest)
4) Hooker (2011 will be make or break IMO)
5) Lynn (my guess is he gets called up in May when Lohse goes down)
6) Blair (#4 starter at best)
7) Kelly (who knows, will probably end up in the BP)
Thoughts??
It’s tough to argue Miller and Martinez, but I’d take Hooker over Jenkins if given the choice (partially based on proximity to majors). I’m not sure what would make 2011 a make or break season, as he posted FIPs of 2.4 and 2.55 in low and high-A last season at the appropriate age of 21. Recreational drug use aside, I haven’t read anything negative about him, and speculation leads me to believe he lived in Shelby’s shadow for most of 2010. Stuffwise, all I know is that he uses an above average curveball. His strikeout numbers certainly make it look like he has more than that, maybe someone can clue us in just what it is.
As I’m sure happens in any barren system, fans latch on to low level players who we can dream on. Avendano, Jenkins, Hector Corpas, Manuel de la Cruz, and Bryan Martinez fit that mold. I wish I knew more about them than what their stats tell us.
If I had to bet on one StL farmhand to have a 30-HR season someday, it’d have to be Adams. No platoon problems, he slugged .548 v. lefties and .538 v. righties in a league where .384 was the norm.
Moreover, look what Adams did over the season’s 2nd half: .341/.379/.638
That line represents 38 XBH’s in just 57 games. I’m no math major, but that appears to project to 100 XBH’s for 150 games. Insane.
As for Oscar Taveras, he was the youngest regular in the Appy League (by several months), and popped his homers all around the park, which bodes very well for future power production. (Two longballs to LF, two to left center, one to right center, and a trio to RF.)
Taveras didn’t even turn 18 until June, so he could develop in any number of directions–but if I had to guess, I’d say he’ll be a .300/.360/.500 MLB hitter by age 23, and a 25-30 HR guy in his late 20′s.
Another name to keep in mind is Anthony Garcia. At 6′ 0″ and 180, the 18-year-old is a bit too small to project more than 20-25 HR power…but he did have one of the best HR-per-AB ratios in the Gulf Coast League in 2010. (And superior strikezone command to go along with it.)
Power bats:
Matt Adams will average 28 HR per 550 AB’s in the majors, but also with 37 doubles.
Oscar Taveras will pop 23 per 550.
Anthony Garcia will bang out 20 per 550, but also draw 77 walks.
John Rodriguez, Aaron Luna and Rainel Rosario may never make the Show…but they’re worthy longshots, as far as power goes.
Pitchers? Hooker throws 90-93, Bry-Mart 90-92, and Corpas (reliever, o’ course) is roughly 93-96. This info from Card sources (public ones, I mean). Don’t know about Avendano or de la Cruz; sorry.
Oh, and I believe Jenkins already hits 92-93, with plenty of projectability to add 2-4 MPH more over the next few years.