Creating and looking at our Future Redbirds top prospect rankings for this season (which you will get to see very soon), I was struck by something. It is really hard to differentiate between our prospects between 4 and beyond our 20 to say 30. All of them having something good going for them, but all of them have flaws right now. And that is not a bad thing for the Cardinals going forward. With a level playing field of approximately 25 prospects, they will not be hurt if 1 or 2 drops off the map, but will be significantly strengthened if 1 or 2 takes a huge step forward. I titled this post “A Grab Bag” and that is exactly what this group of prospects is.
You could make an argument that Nick Longmire deserves to be ranked above Lance Lynn and you could make an argument for the opposite. Nick Longmire had a short-season breakout after being drafted and Lance Lynn has been in the system for a few years with declining results. One is closer to the majors and the other has a higher upside.
A lot of potentially equal prospects makes our jobs harder when making top prospect lists, but the Cardinals and their fans should be happy that they have a lot of insurance against a prospect dropping off because they have many to take his place. The Cardinals are in a great position to add high upside players this year through the draft and international free agency because they have built a solid base of prospects that will keep the system rich even if some of the prospects flame out.
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Even-handed overview, Jeff. I very much look forward to the FR prospect rankings. :)
I gotta say, though, that even if Lance Lynn has scant chance to be a #2/3 guy down the line, there were positives to take from his 2010 season.
Over the season’s 2nd half, and including his stellar playoff start, Lynn’s line was quite solid for a pitcher in only his 2nd pro season, and who also was just 22 on Opening Day.
12 starts, 72 innings, 83 strikeouts, 21 walks, and a firm ERA around 3.40
Nothing really wrong with that. What hurt him was the longball–but he had no history of homer troubles (just 5 in 150 AA IP, for example), so that *may* be a one-year fluke.
Longmire, on the other hand, was 4 levels lower, just a year and half younger, and fanned nearly once a game–kinda scary for a 21-yr-old in short-season ball.
Agree with your assessment as well Jeff, nice to see some decent guys at the top of the system like Lynn, Carpenter, Sanchez, Reifer, etc who are solid and pretty close to helping the big league club out, and a growing number of intriguing propsects at the lower levels like Miller, Martinez, Swinson, Cox, Jenkins, Longmire, and more. Thought we did a good job this past draft in starting to be more aggressive in the kinds of prospects we are going after, and like you, hope we continue to take a more aggressive approach and take some more upside guys even though many will come with much risk. This system seems to be on the rise again and with another good draft next year and another year of our lower level guys developing, this could be a very interesting looking system by this time next year.
One thing you might consider given the issue you mention (that it is “really hard to differentiate between 4 and beyond our 20 to say 30″ is to try to group the prospects in tiers (also could give them grades). If you think there’s a big difference between 4 and 5, for example, but no difference between 5 and 10, then a straight ranking (without some sort of tiering or grading) won’t be as informative/helpful to the readership.
I agree with the “grab bag” description. We’re definitely top heavy, but guys like Longmire, Tavaras, Jenkins, Blair and Haggerty all have some nice ceilings and will be fun to follow. Personally I think Miller, Cox, Mateo/Martinez, Tavaras and Jenkins all have the highest upside in our system and offer a more exciting mix than our top five from last year. My new year’s wish is that the organization continues that trend. . .Cox and Blair were safe picks from a skills standpoint, but Jenkins and A. Wilson weren’t typical Cardinal picks and offered some premium athleticism.
Sorry – should have said Swagerty.
How does Lance Lynn have declining results?