The Horror: Can The System Replace Albert at 1B?
Posted by Jeff in Mark Hamilton, tags: Allen Craig, Andrew Brown, Mark Hamilton, Matt Adams, Steven Hill, victor sanchez, Xaiver Scruggs
Another thought experiment for the end of the year 2010, this one a bit darker and one I hope never comes to fruition. If the Cardinals do not re-sign Albert Pujols at 1B, will they be able to replace him internally from the farm system? (Odds are that the Cardinals WILL re-sign Albert, but it does not hurt to take a look at our 1B depth just in case.)
The First basemen in the Cardinals system have been blocked by Pujols ever since he moved from 3B to LF to 1B and stayed there. Pujols has been a full-time first baseman since 2004 and any prospect that was reaching the minor leagues’ ceiling as first base needed to be moved for a player at another position. (See Wallace, Brett who will be a permanent 1B in the majors.) That being said, what do the Cardinals have left in the minors at first base? The great thing about first base is that it can be played by any slugging player that does not quite have a position and the Cardinals have a few of those as well.
Obviously, no one in the universe is going to replace Pujols’ production, so we can only look at the internal candidates to replace him at 1B and how well they will do.
First into the breach: Mark Hamilton. Hamilton is an interesting prospect who got his first cup of coffee in the majors this September, which shows the Cardinals wanted to get a better look at him. He’s 6-4 and 220, so he’s got the size to play first base. As a 25-year old in Memphis this season, he had a wOBA of .415 and an OPS of .981 which signals to anyone a great season. He hit well between Springfield in Memphis in 2009, but not nearly as well as 2010. He’s a prospect on the rise, but his “prospect egg timer” is about to go off when he will be a 26 year old in AAA this season. ZiPS projects him to have a OPS+ of 95 this season with a slash line of .246/.322/.408. That shows good progress for the 26 year old, but he will need more good seasons in the minors to come close to his AAA lines.
Also receiving votes: Allen Craig. In Memphis, his second most frequent position was 1B after LF. He even got 5 games there in the majors towards the end of the season. We know much more about Craig than Hamilton and ZiPs for 2011 likes him much better as well with a slash line of: .280/.333/.438 for an OPS+ of 105.
Steven Hill. Hill has played only catcher in 2010, but played 25 games at 1B for Springfield in 2009. His bat is much more valuable at catcher and obviously the Cardinals value him there, but he is capable of playing first.
Since 2012 will be the goal here, we can look a little farther down the line to see who else might be available in the Cardinals system.
In the Reserve Force: Andrew Brown. Brown is a solid prospect just finishing up Springfield with decent numbers. Hamilton and Craig put up better numbers than him, so he is still considered a long shot and the Cardinals are trying him in the outfield and at 3B.
Xavier Scruggs. Scruggs is another power prospect with a lot of strikeouts. His numbers do not jump off the page. He would need a huge 2011 to be considered a replacement in 2012.
This last group would not be considered to replace Pujols in 2012, but become a permanent replacement going forward.
The Rear Guard: Matt Adams. Adams is your typical bad-bodied swing for the fences power first base prospect. In Adams’ one year with Quad Cities, he struck out a lot and will need to work on his plate discipline.
Victor Sanchez. The Cardinals recent 2011 draftee hasn’t had much time in the minors yet, but MLB Bonus Baby had this to say about the Cardinals draft pick:
Victor Sanchez, 1B – 26th Round
Sanchez did well as a freshman but floundered his last two season at San Diego. He has a powerful swing and could be a solid power hitter if he can stay healthy. He has the ability to be a solid hitter and a decent defensive 1B. He showed good plate discipline at San Diego, that it reason for optimism. He has top of the draft potential if everything is going well, so the Cardinals could well have gotten a steal in the 26th round.
It is impossible to replace Albert Pujols, but if the Cardinals are forced to replace him from within, they have a few interesting prospects ready to step in right away and a few long term prospects that could turn into MLB players going forward. However, the Cardinals do not have a sure thing waiting in the wings and (heaven forbid) the 1B replacement process will evolve slowly.
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Boy, had almost forgotten about Sanchez lol. He would have been a good candidate for one the potential power prospects from that post a couple days ago. He is yet another guy from this past draft that is definately interesting and can’t wait to see what he can do in full season ball.
Stomach is rolling over. Where did I leave that bottle of Jim Beam…
Dont dismiss the idea of Cox or Carpenter to 3B with Freese moving to 1B.
Or, how about Craig to first, as Jeff says, since he may be the most defensively challenged. Then Freese or Carpenter could play third, and Cox could perhaps play second – a number of good young hitters there.
saw him at first last spring
he did not look comfortable
How so? I saw him there in a Memphis game, and he didn’t look more uncomfortable there than anywhere else.
This said, I view the Berkman signing as an obvious statement that there’s nobody in the minors who will be even an adequate replacement for AP at first, let alone give anything remotely approaching full value — yet.
Does anyone really see Zack Cox playing 2nd base in the majors?
I think we’d like to see it given a shot in the minors but I don’t see it happening there or in the majors.
If it so such a low probability event, than why is the the subject broached so often?
Is it just wish thinking or mass delusion among the Cardinals fanbase?
Obviously none of these guys will an adequate replacement for Albert but I have a feeling that people may be underrating Adams. He has creamed the ball in his first two years of pro ball and I think he’ll hit enough to be a major league power hitter. His defense is supposedly very weak though I always wonder with these “bad body” guys if this isn’t an assumption or overstated. At any rate I think we’ll be taking a closer look at him if Albert doesn’t sign this winter.
John Rodriguez hit better than Sanchez at Batavia and is a year younger. Was set to open the year at QC (as a 20 y.o.) but got but got hurt the last week of Spring training and scheduled to got set back.
let’s not go there yet… i’m sorry. i hate hearing this discussion. just sayin’.
it’s a valid concern, not only because of the contract, but also if he ever decides to have surgery or is injured otherwise.
No reason to like Sanchez. He was actually equally mediocre throughout college. As a frosh, .841 OPS with a poor 18/52 BB/K. Next year, .872 and a much better 11/17. Last season? Just .835, but at least he managed a 19/18 BB/K ratio.
I’m with carioca about J-Rod Redux. Nice season for Batavia, and unbelievable over the final month: .320/.414/.620 with a 15/26 BB/K in exactly 100 AB’s. He’s big enough to have plus power (6′ 2″ 205), and if cuts down the whiffs his potential is large.
Don’t forget about Berkman, depending on what kind of year he has.
Really? Because I view the berkman signing as TLR getting his way of having a veteran who “plays the game the right way” man LF
I would say that if the Cardinals need a replacement for Albert DURING the season, it comes from someone currently on the 40-man roster. However, if Albert were to walk after the season, then I think the Cardinals find someone that is not currently in the organization (Prince?). Just my opinion.
adams had a 17% K-rate last year, which is actually pretty low by chunky minor league slugger standards. “striking out a lot” for guys like that is up in the 25-30% range, or worse. he doesn’t walk very much, that part’s true – so far he hasn’t needed to, but pretty soon he’ll probably reach a level where he can’t hit .330 any more, so that’s a concern. but he really doesn’t have a strikeout problem, which is encouraging.