Poised For A Breakdown
Posted on January 6th, 2011 by Jeff in Arquimedes Nieto, Daryl Jones, robert stockI’m going to run the companion piece to yesterday “Breakout” thread and today we are going to talk about the players that are on the edge and poised to break down. Some players are already in the doldrums and will drop further. Other were playing above their heads last season and will drop down from their lofty heights.
Here’s my three candidates:
Daryl Jones – The further Jones gets away from his breakout 2008 season, the more trouble he will be in. If Jones continues on his path from the past two seasons, he is going to simply break down. There is only so much ~700 OPS we can get from Jones in Springfield.
Robert Stock – Stock’s potential break down might not be the worst thing for the Cardinals as it will drive him back to the mound where a lot of prospect watchers think he will end up anyway. Stock hit like a pitcher in 2010 in Quad Cities after a good rookie level season in 2009 at Johnson City.
Arquimedes Nieto – As much as it pains me to say this (Nieto is one of my pet prospects) he has been living on the edge for a few seasons here. Nieto is basically a junkballer and has been on the shuttle between Palm Beach and Springfield. Since he does not have overpowering stuff, he is always a candidate to hit the wall and break down.
Who are your candidates to break down this season?
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Keeping with the theme of players who have actually already backslid I’ll add Robert Castillo to the list. Dont know what happened but he just keeps getting worse.
KOZMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He is already awful at the plate and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. I hope he can turn it around and hit for a decent avg and obp this year and give us a little hope. If he could hit .280 with an obp of .350+ this year at AA or AAA I would be thrilled. He’d basically be another B. Ryan from within.
Im going to go with David Kopp. Has always had health issues and did not perform well in 5 starts in Memphis. Hopefully I am wrong, and he proves he should be on the aforementioned thread.
Kopp went to Memphis with a sore elbow which never seemed to get better as the season progressed, however ended up doing quite well in Springfield, perhaps sent back as there was more support there (overall), Memphis was struggling offensively at that time. Not a good place to be (AAA) if you are not 100% and your team is struggling as well.
Had surgery in october to move ulnar nerve and will be ready to go by March.
I think he’s already had the breakdown season (s), hopefully will be a breakout one for him.
I hope I am right.
Cutler, Rivera. Espinoza, and Eager are all guys I see struggling to find a place out of Spring training. As far as actual breakdowns I am going to pick Zawacki. He had a decent ERA in the FSL last year but even though he was young for the league his K rate of just over 4.0 per inning spells trouble.
Jorge Rondon either makes it as reliever with his FB or he will breakdown as well.
Where does D’Marcus Ingram rank? I seldom here anything about him, yet he seems to have potential to add speed to a lineup.
I think every comment in this post should end with “but I hope I am wrong”….. ha
Ottavino. :-( That shoulder is not going to last.
I’m willing to give Stock another year before completely giving up on him as a catcher.
A guy that could breakdown atleast as a starter is Joe Kelly. I still believe in him enough to be a decent mlb reliever, but as far as starting, am a bit skeptical. A combination of his injury history, getting worn down with the innings, and his fastball being high 80s-low 90s instead of being mid 90s as a reliever lead me to believe relief will be in the cards for him imo.
Could Carpenter be a breakdown candidate? The extra ball-playin’ years advantage could be laid to waste against the grizzly veterans of the PCL. Are there holes in his swing that more advanced pitchers with better comand and more velocity will take advantage of? And, leaving the Texas League alone should suppress his power numbers.
+1. I don’t think the power is there for him to cut it at 3B. Small sample size warning but he hit for much less power away from Springfield too. He isn’t someone who’s going to contend for a batting title either. I’m not sure if he is really a breakdown candidate or moreso someone who may get a little overrated with the lack of hitting prospects in the upper levels of our system.
I don’t think he’ll hit more than 10-15 homers but he can still be a very good ML 3bman — with the upside of someone like Jeff Cirillo (who had a nice run of around 4-5WAR seasons in his 26-31 years) and the downside of someone like Joe Randa.
Poised for a breakdown, I’ll go with 1. Adam Ottavino, 2. Pete Kozma, 3. Phil Cerreto, 4. Francisco Samuel, 5. Wil Perejo
It seems to me as if this thread is constantly confusing “poised for a breakdown” with “about to hit his ceiling.” There is a difference. Many of the “breakdown” candidates named in the comments simply do not have it in them to make it to the bigs. To me, “breakdown” means that the necessary talent probably or certainly does exist, but something is about to go wrong in translating that talent into a big-league career. Ottavino qualifies. So does DJ Tools. I’m not sure Koz does — what in his intrinsic skill set leads us to believe he’s really a potential major leaguer? And with most of the others named, they’re probably at about their limits, and will shortly be saddened to find out that it’s not enough. A sad part of growing up: the realization that you really DON’T have the unlimited potential everybody told you about when you were a kid…
Grunt, I agree with your premise, but I’m not sure Kozma can be described as a guy w.o. intrinsic MLB-qualifying skills. He makes a lot of errors at SS, but as I noted on the “breakout” thread, he also makes a ton of plays. His assists, putouts, and DPs at Springfield are right in line with Brendan Ryan’s 2010 numbers for the Cardinals.
I don’t think he has Ryan’s athleticism, but his actual production in the field seems to track pretty well with Ryan’s.
I know counting stats are unreliable and context-dependent, but when it comes to minor-league fielding, all we really have are counting stats and eyewitness reports. The eyewitness reports are all over the place, as we all know. But I suspect that if we’d had this site when Ryan was in the minors, we’d have a similar mix of impressions. He made a lot of plays and also made a lot of errors, same as Kozma.
That said, if Ryan’s skills weren’t enough for the Cards, then Kozma’s won’t be enough either, unless his hitting takes a dramatic step forward and he cuts way back on his errors. I can see the latter, but the former seems more like wishful thinking.
Your last paragraph is my point, Lou. The skill that major leaguers have that we mere mortals lack is the ability to make square contact with a small object moving toward them, at 90 miles an hour, on a very non-Newtonian trajectory, from 60 feet away, using a cylindrical rather than flat bat. It is an AWESOME skill. There have been doubts from the beginning as to whether Koz possesses it, even as it has looked as though (despite the errors) he has the necessary skills in the field.
To me, Koz looks like a player who is simply reaching his limit. I hope I’m wrong. But it just isn’t the same performance, qualitatively, as a pitcher who can crank it up to 98 mph but never learns to throw a slider, or can’t figure out the control thing, or busts a body part and isn’t the same afterward. That’s the kind of guy (Ottavino) that I would characterize (Ottavino) as at risk of a breakdown (Ottavino). Likewise a hitter where you look at him and say, “this guy SHOULD be able to hit major-league pitching, he has the skills.” I don’t see Koz in that second camp.
I hope you’re not talking about my post Grunt because I am saying Ottavino and Kozma WILL breakdown, not step it up.
Great points, Grunt. Nothing I would disagree with.
Casey mulligan is my candidate for a big breakdown. While his stats have been great so far, I don’t see success for him in the high minors. I think 2011 will be a setback year for him.