Comments on: Poised For A Breakdown

By: Lou Schuler

Lou Schuler — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 00:19:20 +0000

Great points, Grunt. Nothing I would disagree with.

By: tom s.

tom s. — Sun, 09 Jan 2011 23:17:27 +0000

Casey mulligan is my candidate for a big breakdown. While his stats have been great so far, I don’t see success for him in the high minors. I think 2011 will be a setback year for him.

By: eccard

eccard — Sun, 09 Jan 2011 22:37:38 +0000

I hope you’re not talking about my post Grunt because I am saying Ottavino and Kozma WILL breakdown, not step it up.

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Sun, 09 Jan 2011 14:54:15 +0000

Your last paragraph is my point, Lou. The skill that major leaguers have that we mere mortals lack is the ability to make square contact with a small object moving toward them, at 90 miles an hour, on a very non-Newtonian trajectory, from 60 feet away, using a cylindrical rather than flat bat. It is an AWESOME skill. There have been doubts from the beginning as to whether Koz possesses it, even as it has looked as though (despite the errors) he has the necessary skills in the field.

To me, Koz looks like a player who is simply reaching his limit. I hope I’m wrong. But it just isn’t the same performance, qualitatively, as a pitcher who can crank it up to 98 mph but never learns to throw a slider, or can’t figure out the control thing, or busts a body part and isn’t the same afterward. That’s the kind of guy (Ottavino) that I would characterize (Ottavino) as at risk of a breakdown (Ottavino). Likewise a hitter where you look at him and say, “this guy SHOULD be able to hit major-league pitching, he has the skills.” I don’t see Koz in that second camp.

By: Lou Schuler

Lou Schuler — Sun, 09 Jan 2011 14:34:03 +0000

Grunt, I agree with your premise, but I’m not sure Kozma can be described as a guy w.o. intrinsic MLB-qualifying skills. He makes a lot of errors at SS, but as I noted on the “breakout” thread, he also makes a ton of plays. His assists, putouts, and DPs at Springfield are right in line with Brendan Ryan’s 2010 numbers for the Cardinals.

I don’t think he has Ryan’s athleticism, but his actual production in the field seems to track pretty well with Ryan’s.

I know counting stats are unreliable and context-dependent, but when it comes to minor-league fielding, all we really have are counting stats and eyewitness reports. The eyewitness reports are all over the place, as we all know. But I suspect that if we’d had this site when Ryan was in the minors, we’d have a similar mix of impressions. He made a lot of plays and also made a lot of errors, same as Kozma.

That said, if Ryan’s skills weren’t enough for the Cards, then Kozma’s won’t be enough either, unless his hitting takes a dramatic step forward and he cuts way back on his errors. I can see the latter, but the former seems more like wishful thinking.

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Sun, 09 Jan 2011 05:04:24 +0000

It seems to me as if this thread is constantly confusing “poised for a breakdown” with “about to hit his ceiling.” There is a difference. Many of the “breakdown” candidates named in the comments simply do not have it in them to make it to the bigs. To me, “breakdown” means that the necessary talent probably or certainly does exist, but something is about to go wrong in translating that talent into a big-league career. Ottavino qualifies. So does DJ Tools. I’m not sure Koz does — what in his intrinsic skill set leads us to believe he’s really a potential major leaguer? And with most of the others named, they’re probably at about their limits, and will shortly be saddened to find out that it’s not enough. A sad part of growing up: the realization that you really DON’T have the unlimited potential everybody told you about when you were a kid…

By: pitch and hit

pitch and hit — Sun, 09 Jan 2011 03:08:15 +0000

Kopp went to Memphis with a sore elbow which never seemed to get better as the season progressed, however ended up doing quite well in Springfield, perhaps sent back as there was more support there (overall), Memphis was struggling offensively at that time. Not a good place to be (AAA) if you are not 100% and your team is struggling as well.
Had surgery in october to move ulnar nerve and will be ready to go by March.

I think he’s already had the breakdown season (s), hopefully will be a breakout one for him.

I hope I am right.

By: bc

bc — Sat, 08 Jan 2011 22:07:05 +0000

I don’t think he’ll hit more than 10-15 homers but he can still be a very good ML 3bman — with the upside of someone like Jeff Cirillo (who had a nice run of around 4-5WAR seasons in his 26-31 years) and the downside of someone like Joe Randa.

By: eccard

eccard — Sat, 08 Jan 2011 06:16:50 +0000

Poised for a breakdown, I’ll go with 1. Adam Ottavino, 2. Pete Kozma, 3. Phil Cerreto, 4. Francisco Samuel, 5. Wil Perejo

By: fpslackers

fpslackers — Sat, 08 Jan 2011 06:11:25 +0000

+1. I don’t think the power is there for him to cut it at 3B. Small sample size warning but he hit for much less power away from Springfield too. He isn’t someone who’s going to contend for a batting title either. I’m not sure if he is really a breakdown candidate or moreso someone who may get a little overrated with the lack of hitting prospects in the upper levels of our system.