I’ll skip the fanfare for this first post. Suffice to say we’ve compiled our top 20 list for this year. It is, noticeably, the least homogeneous rankings that I’ve seen since I started writing here.
#20. Steve Hill
Age – 26
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – N/A, Jeff Roman – 13, erik – N/A
Player Comments -
As the only member to rank Hill in my top 20, I think it is probably right that I defend my pick. First and foremost, the Cardinals have moved Hill from a OF/1B to Catcher and he played only 6 non-catcher games in 2010. If he stays at catcher like the organization is pointing him towards, his career minor league slugging percentage of .510 will look awful shiny. - Jeff Roman
The Cardinals play a tricky game with their catchers in the minors. They’ve teased us in recent years with players like Hill and Tony Cruz who they’ll let play behind the plate for significant portions of the season. For a team that preaches defense, I don’t see them ever sticking with a converted catcher no matter how enticing his offense. Steve Hill as a catcher is exciting. Steve Hill as an outfielder is rather mundane. I think we’re looking at the latter rather than the former. – azruavatar
#19. Deryk Hooker
Age – 21
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 14, Jeff Roman – N/A, erik – 19
Player Comments -
And here we move to the opposite direction for me, a player that I didn’t rank in my top 20, but erik and AZ did (granted Hooker was on my “just missed” list). If he can extend his strikeout numbers from Quad Cities to Palm Beach and Springfield, then we may be able to talk. I just think his projection is probably a right handed relief and the Cardinals are already flush with those guys. – Jeff Roman
I like Hooker’s pure stuff. He’s got a fastball with better than average velocity, a good slider and the makings of some functional offspeed pitches. He’s young enough that despite being in the system since 2007, he’s age appropriate for the level he’s pitching at. He reminds me a little of Adam Ottavino though his slider doesn’t rate as well. – azruavatar
#18. Adron Chambers
Age – 24
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – N/A, Jeff Roman – 11, erik – N/A
Player Comments -
Adron is a big-time speed merchant who can play plus defense in the outfield, even in center. He has been swinging for the fences a bit more in 2010 with 5 HRs, but his slugging will always be dependent on triples. He’s Jon Jay essentially with more speed and less power. – Jeff Roman
Chambers is a Jon Jay clone. His power is below average for an outfielder and he’s very reliant on his speed and defense to provide his value. I don’t see the offense holding up in the big leagues meaning he looks like a fringy backup outfielder to me. – azruavatar
#17. Jordan Swagerty
Age – 21
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 13, Jeff Roman – N/A, erik – 17
Player Comments -
I did not rank Swagerty for the same reason I didn’t rank Hooker, he is a right handed reliever prospect. Swagerty should move fast in the Cardinals system, but I’m going to take a Missouri approach on this one: when I see it, I’ll believe it. – Jeff Roman
Swagerty was half of the Arizona State duo that the Cardinals drafted in 2010. At 13, I’m aggressive and I’m counting on his fastball to hold up as a starter. This is likely a volatile ranking – he could be off the list next year or conceivably creep toward the top 10. – azruavatar
#16. Cody Stanley
Age – 22
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 16, Jeff Roman – 18, erik – 15
Player Comments -
Cody Stanley is the new Robert Stock. He had a quality season in rookie ball after being drafted in the first 4 rounds of the MLB draft. However, Stanley has a better chance of continuing his good play going forward whereas most people though Stock would come off catcher to become a pitcher sooner or later. – Jeff Roman
The biggest plus about Stanley is his athleticism. He’s small for a catcher but he’s physically fit and has average speed. There seems to be a tendency to underrate catchers given their positional scarcity and I’d give him the best odds of anyone in the organization to stick behind the plate defensively while still having some kind of an offensive game. – azruavatar

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A Jon Jay clone wouldn’t rank in our system? Jay put up a ~2.0 WAR (extrapolated for a whole season) as a rookie. Chambers may walk a little more but have less power. I think he’ll end up a better base stealer than Jay. What I really like about Chambers at this point is that he still seems to be improving.
Jay had a good bit of luck in his production last year. I’ve always been more of downer re-Jay than the “consensus”. I’m much the same way about Adron.
>> I don’t see them ever sticking with a converted catcher no matter how enticing his offense. – azruavatar <<
+1 That is what perplexes one when looking at the Cardinals catcher depth chart at AAA and AA. LaDuncan has, how shall we say, unique requirements for their catchers. Duncan signed a multiyear contract so even if LaSkipper departs after the season we will be under the Duncan regime at catcher through the 2012 season. The supposedly best defensive catcher in our high minor league system got removed from the 40 man roster and is gone. I'm fine with that decision of course because I think Bryan Anderson is a better option at catcher but LaDuncan apparently thinks not because they gave Pags numerous starts last September to the exclusion of Anderson. Then they demanded and got the club to sign Laird. If Bryan Anderson doesn't fit into LaDuncan (kinda like MasterBlaster from Mad Max) plans then how does Steve Hill?
Chambers’ lack of power is an issue for a corner OF (my impression is that he’s really not a CF, though I could be off). He has slugged only .382 in his MiLB career and could barely crack .400 in the Texas League. Base stealing really isn’t that valuable a skill in MLB, especially if your success rate is below 75%. If he is the goods defensively, he probably could stick as a 5th OF.
If a guy can get on base, he can find a place to play. .390 OBPs don’t grow on trees. Besides, the Cardinals may be able to afford the luxury of a high-OBP, low-power guy in right since they have a guy in center who has the promise of generating more power than a typical center fielder — in fact, this year Raz had the second highest slugging percentage of all center fielders in the bigs. Of course, Chambers has not demonstrated yet that he can sustain last year’s Memphis OBP in the majors, but if he can …
I am just curious on how this particular list is complied. Does this list project those players who SHOULD stand out above the rest in 2011?….Does age enter in?…..Are you a better prospect if you are on the 40 man roster?…..Does position enter into the equation?…..Does the league enter in?…..Does the selection in the draft enter in? I have looked at several of the prospect lists that have been offered, and after the top 5 most common names, there seems to be a vast difference in the next 20-30 prospects included. I know that the groups that prepare these lists spend a lot of time with research etc. and I just wanted to understand what this group’s list was projected to show. Thanks for you hard and dedicated work.
This is a good idea and it deserves delving into. We’ll address it in a separate post (probably after the top 20).
I see 20 through 16 were is the rest?
We countdown backwards — gotta build suspense! We’ll be running them the rest of this week with #5-#1 on Thursday.
Hill and Chambers surprise me a bit but 16-20 is the place for hunches. I just can’t see Hill getting a shot with us. If Chambers could really blossom as a base stealer his high obp might get him a real shot. I’ll be interested to see if a couple of my favorites are excluded or bumped up into the next five.
I actually agree on chambers. I think he’s a potentially valuable piece. Wouldn’t put him any higher on list, but he’s top 20
Huge Cody Stanley fan. I think he will prove to be a very valuable pick in the 4th round.
Have any readers actually seen Stanley play? If so, how big did he look to you? AZ, above, isn’t the only person who has expressed doubts about him staying at catcher because of his size. Yet that fangraphs page lists him as 5’10″, 200# — which is hardly tiny for a catcher, probably closer to average for a kid (he’ll gain weight as he ages). What’s reality like on this one?
Actually, Az says about Stanley: “…I’d give him the best odds of anyone in the organization to stick behind the plate defensively while still having some kind of an offensive game.” That doesn’t sound like doubts being expressed.
I had Hooker, Chambers & Stanley all higher than this. No right or wrong with these lists though. Makes me curious to see the rest of the list.
While I was hopeful that Hill could develop into an offensive backup at C, 1b, 3b and OF, and I guess he still could, he will have to overcome the facts that he was dropped off the 40 man roster, and that roster will be tight for spots going forward, and that he passed waivers and also a Rule 5 Draft claim through the other 29 teams, which shows that all the other teams did not think he could help them in the near future.
I personally have Chambers and Hooker quite a bit higher on my personal list. I see Chambers as a potential leadoff hitter that the team desperately needs. Now I am a bit leary of the DJ Tools syndrome but he had decent success at the high level minors so I feel he will continue to grow and get a taste near the end of the year. Hooker I feel is the just behind Lynn in his arrival time to the bigs with a touch more upside IMO. Hooker should arrive in 2012 in some form or fashion and I see him improving his stock this year. Also on this list is the 2nd best catcher in our system in Stanley. I see him just being a solid all around C which is just fine with me.
HAS any one ever used a left-handed pitcher in 7th or 8th inning to pitch to one batter, then to catcher for one or two batters, then back to pitcher for one or two batters ?? Can Jason Motte pitch to a batter, go to catcher for next batter , and then back to pitcher for 3rd batter? It’s crazy but if Robert Stock could pitch lefty & catch righty in one inning to one batter TR would do it.